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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Postby maverickdoc » Fri 18 Feb 2005, 23:14:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'M')averickdoc, You'd be amazed at what you can do with a little wax paper, cheese cloth and string! :)

Just razzing you. There's going to be some terrible difficulty. It's going to be a Rolling Stone correction---as in, "You don't always get what you want, you get what you need"

If there are ANY positives at all, people will be forced into real community and that's what they need.


You are absolutely right. :) who know it might actually be a good thing
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Postby tokyo_to_motueka » Sat 19 Feb 2005, 09:35:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ozkrenske', '
')I also have a small number of chickens in a large pen (I can easily handle 20+ chooks, but have only 6, mainly for eggs and fertilizer.)


I think only Aussies and New Zealanders understand that "chook"=chicken
but most people would be able to pick it up from the context here :-D

WorldWideWords:chook
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Postby MonteQuest » Tue 01 Mar 2005, 01:30:26

This is the best personal account of the Great Depression I have ever read. A glimpse from the past for a view of the future.

MY MEMORIES OF THE GREAT
DEPRESSION, 1929 TO 1939.

http://www.rinfret.com/depression.html
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Postby Permanently_Baffled » Tue 01 Mar 2005, 07:56:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')his is the best personal account of the Great Depression I have ever read. A glimpse from the past for a view of the future.

MY MEMORIES OF THE GREAT
DEPRESSION, 1929 TO 1939.

http://www.rinfret.com/depression.html


Wow , that is a sobering read..... 8O
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Postby oowolf » Tue 01 Mar 2005, 16:21:45

re: Rinfret. Gawd, what lousy luck. Remind me not to complain. Just a few days ago I spoke with a 90 year old man who, as a 15 year old, made railroad ties during the GD--with a broad axe--for 25cents a DAY. He'd collect his 25cents, buy a pack of smokes (Spud brand) for 5cents and a dinner for 15cents. Get up the next day and do it again-for years.
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Postby Pops » Tue 01 Mar 2005, 16:32:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
') It's going to be a Rolling Stone correction---as in, "You don't always get what you want, you get what you need"


Good choice, a song about dependency. Actually it goes:
if you try sometimes

you get what you need
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Postby MonteQuest » Tue 01 Mar 2005, 23:46:44

History may soon repeat itself.

Last Orders For The US Dollar?


[quote]At the time of the 1929 stock market crash, total US credit was 176 percent of Gross Domestic Product. In 1933 with GDP imploding and the real value of debt rising even faster, total credit rose to 287 percent of what was left of GDP. (Irving Fisher described the collapse of GDP as a function of price deflation, which raised the real burden of debts, as firms and households shed assets and reduce expenditures in order to pay down debt. But these acts of liquidation by all economic agents pushed prices yet lower, which in turn raised the real debt burden further and caused further economic implosion.) In 2000 at the top of the late bull market, total credit was 269 percent of GDP. An extraordinary statistic to be sure, but dwarfed by today's figure, in which total credit stands at a whopping 304 percent of GDP, according to a recent study by fund manager Trey Reik of Clapboard Hill Partners.


The obvious answer in such circumstances would be to restrain US consumption. But were Americans to begin to significantly pare their debt burdens, aggregate demand would likely collapse and trigger something not unlike what Fisher described in the 1930s. A world war was ultimately the means by which the US economy emerged from the ravages of the Great Depression. But with the country already overstretched by current military operations (and possibly more to come in spite of President Bush’s protestations to the contrary last week in Germany), America’s “big stickâ€
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Postby somethingtosay » Sat 05 Mar 2005, 02:03:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')his is the best personal account of the Great Depression I have ever read. A glimpse from the past for a view of the future.

MY MEMORIES OF THE GREAT
DEPRESSION, 1929 TO 1939.

http://www.rinfret.com/depression.html


Montequest: Thanks

When I suggested to you to talk with people who lived the GD, I was hoping get readers and posters to feel and comprehend the effects of a future collapse as many posts are written in a detached academic way. This post brings it home to those that do not comprehend the human cost which will be paid by all. I recommend to everyone to talk with the older generation and learn from their experience.

I read Mr. Rinfrets account of the GD and his experience was a severe one. There are two qualities his generation had in common, as remembered by him:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
I remember one dinner where my mother, myself and my brothers and sister sat down to a meal. The meal consisted of 3 boiled potatoes and one slice of white bread which we divided up amongst us. I noticed my mother was not eating and I asked her why she was not eating.
She answered that she was on a diet.
When I was about 50 years of age it hit me that she had not been on a diet but was giving up what there was to us!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')We were brought up to be honest, forthright, dependable, responsible, honorable, loyal; imbued in us was a set of high morals. We were taught to never cheat, lie, fake or to cheat anyone on anything! Integrity was the one characteristic that was drummed into us.
ASIDE. My wonderful son Peter once said to me that "You know Dad that we had the worst upbringing possible. In this world our upbringing of honor, integrity, truthfulness is a distinct disadvantage. The worst part is that neither my sister or I can change!" END OF ASIDE.
My mother referred all the time to our family line going back some 300+ years. She imbued in us a sense of having to continue the honor of that family and to never forget our heritage. Her approach was that it was a distinguished family line (on the part of my mother and father) and we had a moral obligation to continue that heritage.
In other words we were brought up to be responsible human beings.


I feel it is these very qualitites that many of his gereration has, that made the difference and broke, what I call ‘the curse of the tragedy of the commons’.

Unfortunately these qualities are not as apparent in today’s society. They seem to be forgotten about.

I'd like to see more people report on this subject, whatever their take.
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Death by car.

Postby drew » Sun 06 Mar 2005, 15:16:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it would be more effective to give everyone a car and lower the driving age. More people have died in auto crashes than all the wars combined since the Revolutionary War.


Monte, seriously now, I like peakoil.com, I do, but sometimes a challenge is in order with regard to some of the outlandish statements you continue to make. As to the above quote, (2005 02 13) where do you come up with these 'facts'. I did a fairly quick guesstimate of average US auto deaths for last year times 50 years and got a number of around 2 million dead people. Your claims certainly border on hyperbola don't you think, being 55 million people died in WWII alone.

Even world wide the numbers don't add up. The WHO claims that 1.2 million people died last year as a result of traffic accidents. Are you claiming that this number is reflective of the past 50 or 100 years? I think growth of autos would be 'exponential' don't you think. As for war world wide the numbers are staggering and depressing; WWI 22 million, WWII 55 million, Vietnam ~4 million, Ukraine 13 million etc, etc... By my guess at least 100 million have died in the last century due to war and the number is probably much higher, if you run the numbers back to the end of the American Rev.

Sorry Monte, cars don't cut it as an execution tool.

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Postby Trab » Sun 06 Mar 2005, 15:46:43

Perhaps Monte is referring to total US casualties, which would be much lower overall in several of the conflicts you listed.
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Postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Sun 06 Mar 2005, 15:53:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it would be more effective to give everyone a car and lower the driving age. More people have died in auto crashes than all the wars combined since the Revolutionary War.


and before cars they were killing themselves off with carraiges. No joke. Did you know the greatest cause of death in Mexico is by donkey? Again no joke, but funny as hell. Humans have a "thing" with modes of transportation and killing themselves off.

The more people see death, the more they are driven to procreate. the more education they get, which helps them see past the mask of fear the less children they have. Educate people and they will have less urges to have kids, stop feeding them fear on a daily basis and they will stop pumping out babies by the half dozen.
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Postby Wildwell » Sun 06 Mar 2005, 16:01:47

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_repo ... /47357.stm

Back in 98 in was estimated that 20 million people had been killed. So I guess the total is 27 million now.

But estimates are that as many as 50 million people are injured worldwide on roads.

http://www.mercola.com/2004/may/1/automobile_deaths.htm

As many people have their life rendered useless after road accidents it seems a pretty good killing machine to me.
Last edited by Wildwell on Sun 06 Mar 2005, 16:48:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Death by car.

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 06 Mar 2005, 16:23:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drew', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it would be more effective to give everyone a car and lower the driving age. More people have died in auto crashes than all the wars combined since the Revolutionary War.


Monte, seriously now, I like peakoil.com, I do, but sometimes a challenge is in order with regard to some of the outlandish statements you continue to make. As to the above quote, (2005 02 13) where do you come up with these 'facts'. I did a fairly quick guesstimate of average US auto deaths for last year times 50 years and got a number of around 2 million dead people. Your claims certainly border on hyperbola don't you think, being 55 million people died in WWII alone.

Even world wide the numbers don't add up. The WHO claims that 1.2 million people died last year as a result of traffic accidents. Are you claiming that this number is reflective of the past 50 or 100 years? I think growth of autos would be 'exponential' don't you think. As for war world wide the numbers are staggering and depressing; WWI 22 million, WWII 55 million, Vietnam ~4 million, Ukraine 13 million etc, etc... By my guess at least 100 million have died in the last century due to war and the number is probably much higher, if you run the numbers back to the end of the American Rev.

Sorry Monte, cars don't cut it as an execution tool.

Drew


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'T')he world used the war to get out of the depression last time. It would be a seductive way to do so again, with the added benefit of decreasing the population. Anyone care to guess who the target of the next world war would likely be?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'B')ut it would be more effective to give everyone a car and lower the driving age. More people have died in auto crashes than all the wars combined since the Revolutionary War. 8)


Outlandish? Facetious, maybe. Accurate? Yes.

More Americans have died in automobile accidents than have died in all the wars ever fought by the United States. (Source—National Highway Traffic Safety Administration)

This has been common knowledge for years. Maybe I did fail in some clarity to paramenters:

More than 400,000 men and women lost their lives in service to the United States in the five years from 1941 to 1945, making the Second World War the bloodiest in our nation’s history. As horrific as World War II was, it takes only 10 years of daily use of the highway system to equal the human toll of the war in traffic deaths.

Since the close of hostilities in 1945, at the current kill rate(40,000 to 50,000/year), the highway system has ended the lives of six times the number of World War II deaths. It only takes 25 years to kill as many men, women and children on the highways as have died in all the wars since the start of the Revolutionary War in 1775.

This is referring to soldier deaths, not including civilian deaths which would change everything as you note. Sorry for not being more precise. I thought I was being obvious.
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Postby Denny » Tue 08 Mar 2005, 23:20:21

The traditional mixed farms were a refuge back in the 30's, but today is whole different story. Due to specialization, most farmers would face rough times today, not so different than city folk. And, the input prices for farm crop production are much higher now, as a percentage of the crop value, for specialized fertilizers, herbicides and most notably fuel.

Another big difference is that most of North America was only one generation removed fomr farming, and aobut 20%to30% of the popultion was rural then. Most everyone had close family connections to farming, and not today. Who would most of us visit today if we were in desperate straits for food?

Even back in the 30's, my mother's family suffered a lot as they were wheat farmers in Saskatchewan, and the climate there really limited what you could grow in a garden. Wheat prices nosedived. Strange to say, but many farmers out there suffered greatly. Just like the "Okies" in the U.S.A. Saskatchewan's population dropped a lot in the period 1929 to 1939, and in fact it has never recovered even to this day.
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Postby Jagger » Sat 12 Mar 2005, 22:24:39

Don't forget salt for perservation of meats and pickling of vegetables and fruits.

And how do you store seeds??

It would be useful if there were a section on this site about raising food using traditional methods.
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Postby Chuckmak » Sun 20 Mar 2005, 21:25:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
But to answer your question: China.


china will serve the U.S. a MAJOR ass whooping.
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Postby Chuckmak » Sun 20 Mar 2005, 21:26:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'H')ey, no one says it has to make sense. Why is it they spend millions (at least here in Canada) to get people to quit smoking but make it ok to smoke pot???


ain't a ting wrong wit de ganja!
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Postby Ranglepung » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 12:59:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oowolf', 'I') walk to work. Everyone in this end of the county knows "that crazy guy that walks everywhere". Why does he walk?---that's all it takes to be labelled "crazy" in Amerika the braindead.


I remember an interview with Espen Knutsen, a norwegian who played for Anaheim Mighty Ducks a year.
He brought over his family from Norway, and bought a house in a nice neighbourhood.
As many norwegians they enjoyed taking walks, and used to walk around the neighbourhood.
The neighbours, he said, reacted very peculiar to this, constantly coming up to them and asking them if their car was broken, would they like to borrow theirs etc.
Eventually they had to stop doing this for the looks and gossip.
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Postby Ludi » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 16:01:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ranglepung', '
')Eventually they had to stop doing this for the looks and gossip.


Oh for pete's sake! "Looks and gossip?" Oh my god! They're killing me with looks and gossip because I'm ever-so-slightly-different from my neighbors!

It's that kind of thing that makes me sometimes believe we really are truly doomed.

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Postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 16:12:50

I can't get over the offers to use their car if his had broken down. I get this a lot. Even before PO I only usually put my car ont eh road in the summer so we can go campoing or to the beach.

I don't need it for anything else. One of my girls hurt her knee at school so when I came to pick her up they offered to drive us home and I said no thanks, put her on my shoulders and off we went.

Back in Victorian England, "Gentlemen" were not to be seen working, any implication that they did any work was strictly avoided because it wasn't gentile. I think that as well as living like kings in huge houses we've taken on that kind of thought pattern.

I don't think the majority of people know what they are capable of anymore.Some of us really have lost ourselves but now its also unfashionable to re-find it.
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