Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Pops » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 12:32:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')ctually, I think he's unemployed.

While he was making that uncanny prediction of the housing crash, he was working in the housing industry.

Could be, 5 years ago I also predicted the bubble would pop while I was working for clients that sold furniture, houses and cars - I lost most of those clients too.

What is your point?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 15:04:01

^I believe his point is "put your money where your mouth is". The only True predictions are the ones you make with your wallet, if you TRULY are making a prediction you act in accordance with your best interest. Any yahoo can run off his mouth making predictions.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
User avatar
TheAntiDoomer
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Pops » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 16:40:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '^')I believe his point is "put your money where your mouth is". The only True predictions are the ones you make with your wallet, if you TRULY are making a prediction you act in accordance with your best interest. Any yahoo can run off his mouth making predictions.

I sold my house at the top of the market in CA and bought 40ac farm in the Ozarks with a nice old house to restore. We raise grass fed cattle and a little garden for a good portion of our vegetables with some left over to sell. Oh, and I'm going to a transitions meeting this weekend to figure out how to promote local ag in this area.

The other thing I have done is decide your schtick of dropping into every other thread to spread your good news and charm has grown tiring. I welcome your advocation of contrasting points of view and optimism because the site can use those but we are going to start acting like grown-ups.

Hows that for a prediction?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 17:44:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', '^')I believe his point is "put your money where your mouth is". The only True predictions are the ones you make with your wallet, if you TRULY are making a prediction you act in accordance with your best interest. Any yahoo can run off his mouth making predictions.

I sold my house at the top of the market in CA and bought 40ac farm in the Ozarks with a nice old house to restore. We raise grass fed cattle and a little garden for a good portion of our vegetables with some left over to sell. Oh, and I'm going to a transitions meeting this weekend to figure out how to promote local ag in this area.

The other thing I have done is decide your schtick of dropping into every other thread to spread your good news and charm has grown tiring. I welcome your advocation of contrasting points of view and optimism because the site can use those but we are going to start acting like grown-ups.

Hows that for a prediction?



Good work pops, sounds iike you made out good, however we were talking about Monte's "brilliant" prediction and how he was predicting one thing and doing another.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
User avatar
TheAntiDoomer
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Pops » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 18:13:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', ' ')however we were talking about Monte's "brilliant" prediction and how he was predicting one thing and doing another.

I won't argue what you were doing but at least I know you read my post and I hope understand my prediction.

...
I don't know what business you are in tad, but if you came to believe something bad was about to happen with respect to your line of work - I know that isn't likely but if it did, would you be able to change on a dime?

And further, since you are the "anti doomer", would you tell others about your worries in case they were in similar circumstance or would you keep it to yourself?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 18:44:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '^')I believe his point is "put your money where your mouth is". The only True predictions are the ones you make with your wallet, if you TRULY are making a prediction you act in accordance with your best interest. Any yahoo can run off his mouth making predictions.


If any yahoo is just running his mouth, he can still make predictions. For every yahoo predicting growth forever (the entire government and their banking masters), there are only a few that saw that the present path was unsustainable.
Monte saw it, and called things pretty correctly, in my opinion. Doesn't matter where he worked.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State
Top

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby sameu » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 19:13:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'H')eh. I just remembered this thread. Monte started it back in 2005, saying:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n particular, the FED's efforts to lower interest rates have caused an asset bubble to form around real estate. People tend to over-invest when interest rates are low and when interest rates are raised to stave off the inevitable inflation, the bubble pops. That process is under way as I write this. Throughout the years preceding the Stock Market crash of 1929, the Fed did just that. The Fed set below market interest rates and low reserve requirements that all favored easy credit. The money supply actual increased by about 60% during this time. The phrase "buying on margin" entered the American vocabulary at this time as more and more Americans over-extended themselves to take advantage of the soaring stock market. Today, it is the housing market, and to some extent the stock market again. It was in 1929 that the Fed realized that it could not sustain its current policy. When it started to raise interest rates, the whole house of cards collapsed. The FED is starting to raise interest rates now for the same reason--to cool off consumer spending/speculation and reel in the trade deficit.


He seems like a psychic now...


Actually, I think he's unemployed.

While he was making that uncanny prediction of the housing crash, he was working in the housing industry.


you think?
maybe he left the industry before the crash
maybe he wanted to but didn't find anything else
whatever
I used to work in the diamond industry, I knew it was going to crash
but they fired me even before I got the chance to switch
we all know what you're insinuating here, but maybe you should mind your own business
www.peakoil.be
User avatar
sameu
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 579
Joined: Thu 18 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Belgium, Europe
Top

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby JohnDenver » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 19:47:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')ctually, I think he's unemployed.

While he was making that uncanny prediction of the housing crash, he was working in the housing industry.

Could be, 5 years ago I also predicted the bubble would pop while I was working for clients that sold furniture, houses and cars - I lost most of those clients too.

What is your point?


It's a human interest story -- a sort of modern day Aesop's fable.

The "brilliant" seer who predicted the exact time and location of a meteor strike, but ended up in the morgue because he was standing at the impact point when it happened.
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Pops » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 19:57:22

Could be, more like realizing the speeding train you're on will crash, either you jump and hope to survive or close your eyes and chant, no no no no.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby JohnDenver » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 20:08:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '^')I believe his point is "put your money where your mouth is". The only True predictions are the ones you make with your wallet, if you TRULY are making a prediction you act in accordance with your best interest. Any yahoo can run off his mouth making predictions.


If any yahoo is just running his mouth, he can still make predictions. For every yahoo predicting growth forever (the entire government and their banking masters), there are only a few that saw that the present path was unsustainable.
Monte saw it, and called things pretty correctly, in my opinion.


That remains to be seen.

We'll only know for sure in hindsight, but at the moment, the current crisis is far from a "Grand Depression". It's a severe recession, but it seems to be winding down, and there are a few countries, like China and India, which have been growing at 6%+ the entire time.

Bubbles and major financial crises have been a chronic feature of human life for hundreds of years. Personally I tend to view the current crisis not as a global "Grand Depression", but as a shift in financial and political power, as we've seen in the past, i.e.,

The decline of Spain and the rise of England
The decline of England and the rise the USA
The decline of the USA and the rise of Asia
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Fri 21 Aug 2009, 22:13:55

It may not be a "grand" depression yet, but in my opinion it looks like a duck and walks like a duck. If it starts to quack like a duck (pretty soon now), I think it will be a duck.
It may end up just being an American duck. In which case it wouldn't be grand.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 22:58:01

jd; the whole world is on life support

china is growing only due to gov. stimulus

china and india both have huge problems
User avatar
kiwichick
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2267
Joined: Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Southland New Zealand

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby sameu » Wed 26 Aug 2009, 17:29:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '.') Personally I tend to view the current crisis not as a global "Grand Depression", but as a shift in financial and political power, as we've seen in the past, i.e.,

The decline of Spain and the rise of England
The decline of England and the rise the USA
The decline of the USA and the rise of Asia


and why exactly do countries rise and decline?
maybe it has something to do with available energy
only problem this time is that we're all dependent on oil and we'll all decline (some can borrow a little more time, other not)
User avatar
sameu
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 579
Joined: Thu 18 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Belgium, Europe
Top

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron