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The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 05 Dec 2005, 22:57:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('creg', 'I') have talked to my 3 neighbors,late 70's&mid 90's about the depression.They were agarian so they had basics. The thing they remember most was NO money.


Yes, with little economic growth and few new loans, the money supply shrank. As the prinicipal on old loans were paid off, the money supply deflated.

Ther was no shortage of goods or services, just the money to buy them.

Peak oil will bring this again, anew.

"Access" to energy will be hard to come by, not energy itself, although we will see shortages.

We are seeing it already in Malawi, Darfur, Niger.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Ancien_Opus » Tue 06 Dec 2005, 14:02:53

My mother was born in 1930 and lived on a 40 acre farm in Southern Illinois.

Shoes where always in short supply and for many years they simply did without them. My wife was amazed once when we she sent me to Grandma's with the kids and they all came home with brand new shoes. It was something my mother was extremely sensitive to for the remainder of her life.

The work on my mothers 40 acre family farm was endless. Chickens, sheep, coon dogs and 4 acres of garden required attention daily. There was a never ending to the fence mending, weeding, butchering, canning and gardening. All the tools where hand operated such as shelling & cracking the corn for the chickens. The sharpening stone was a large grinding wheel you peddled up to get enough inertial energy to sharpen knifes or cutting blades. Because sugar was in short supply they substituted honey from bee hives.

The smell of lanolin at sheep shearing time, culling the young rams from the young ewe's, along with tail lopping are things I'll never forget. I still have a taste for lamb burger every now and again.

Food and barter was a big deal for my mother's depression era generation.

Regards,
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Gil-Galad » Wed 07 Dec 2005, 08:26:46

The farm life you describe was how many people lived, in Europe as well as the US, before the modern age with affordable transport and factory jobs.

Many people still live like this in what we term the third world. People in the US and Europe will have to live like this in the future. We/they will have to get used to limited health care, education and communication.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 07 Dec 2005, 14:26:39

Ancien Opus, Thanks for posting that--really interesting. Just as an aside, I'm unable to throw shoes or boots away, even if they're 20 years old and don't fit. I'm anti pack rat and not a shopper, but for the life of me, I can't bring myself to throw shoes out. Hmmm. Memories of other incarnations?

BTW, If your mother and her siblings didn't have shoes, what did they wear on their feet? Southern Illinois is plenty cold in the winter. I have a vision of all these little kids with newspaper wrapped around their feet, held together with twine, tramping through the snow, getting soggy.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby mortifiedpenguin » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 17:05:45

edited by MQ to give proper credit to post

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I') have come to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event, which has no significant impact on my daily life.

Oil is up by about 600% since the late 90s. So where's all those scary peak oil effects? You know, the knock-on effects caused by the end of cheap oil.


http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/ post #300

Goodbye.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 17:27:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mortifiedpenguin', 'G')oodbye.

Enjoy your vacation. You'll be back.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 18:16:56

I guess mortified penguin hasn't noticed the fact that Americans now have a negative savings rate, that some people have to pawn their possessions to buy gasoline, and that the gap between the rich and poor is growing. Oh, and a major American city is still in ruins a year after a natural disaster...

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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 18:19:55

Mortified, I agree to a point, but draw your attention to the fact that people are only "keeping up appearances" by taking on more and more debt. You may be seeing the same number of cars on the road, but you aren't likely seeing as many new models.

I'll go out on a limb and make a prediction. You'll either be back when Israel bombs Iran and the straits of Hormuz go into lockdown. Or you'll be back after the fed cuts interest rates to forestall a real estate crack up crash and your dollar spirals downward out of control.

Anyway," hello, I must be leaving." Heard it first in a Marx bros. movie and on this board several times.
Last edited by threadbear on Thu 24 Aug 2006, 18:34:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby BigTex » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 18:23:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mortifiedpenguin', 'G')oodbye.

Enjoy your vacation. You'll be back.


Here are a few things he may want to check out on his vacation:

1. Walmart's stock price the last few years (flat or down) (beginning of implosion)

2. Ford is about to roll out 72 month 0% financing on its trucks--its top-selling vehicles (didn't see that in 1998) (gas guzzler craze winding down)

3. We have 130,000 troops occupying a country in the middle east with serious plans to invade or bomb one or maybe two more (we were just flying over Iraq in 1998) (nuking of Iran is part of proposed U.S. battle plan)

4. Bankruptcies are up, up, up and the credit card companies convinced Congress to basically take away many of the consumer bankruptcy protections in 2005 (precursor to collapse in consumer spending)

5. Housing prices are flat or declining (they were rising in 1998) (beginning of migration away from the suburbs)

6. Terrorists are trying to blow us up everywhere, all the time (couldn't even spell bin Laden in 1998)--why are they doing this? partly because of our mideast policy which is driven, in part, by our need for cheap oil by supporting anti-democratic arab governments (here are the violent marauders)

7. We don't have a draft, but the use of the National Guard and callup of all imaginable reservists is certainly as close to a draft as you can get without having one (military draft)

8. The dollar is much weaker than it was in 1998 (look at the dollar vs. the Euro and look at the price of gold) (beginning of fiat currency collapse)

9. Pakistan has nuclear weapons

10. North Korea has nuclear weapons

11. There are no longer twin world trade center towers in New York City

12. There is a new cabinet level agency called the Department of Homeland Security (I don't think I had heard the term homeland security in 1998)

13. AIDS in Africa is wiping people out wholesale (die-off).

14. Gas costs more, utilities cost more, postage costs more, lots of things cost more (inflation)

15. China and the U.S. currently have a symbiotic relationship--this will end when oil gets a little tighter and Taiwan gets uppity (Campbell soup can rumble)

I am not waiting in a bunker for SHTF, but I certainly notice that the world today is different than it was in 1998 and what has happened in the energy markets and the Middle East (with large overlaps between the two) makes today easily distinguishable from 1998.

Reminds me of the frog in the water that is slowly heated to a boil.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 19:01:48

The US economy is doing well these last few years by securing additional energy directly by increased oil/gasoline imports and indirectly by buying more foreign products in general.

PO is somewhat of an ironic concept because Peak is also the best of times - especially in a country like the US with ability to buy imports on credit.

In the US, these good times are dependent on a strong dollar being able to buy ever greater quantities of energy directly and indirectly (as noted above). Ever greater because US oil/natural gas production is past peak.

So the question of when the depression will come to the US is also a question of just how long the US can continue to buy ever greater amounts of energy as we past PO with US dollars.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby cube » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 19:59:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.')...
I'll go out on a limb and make a prediction. You'll either be back when Israel bombs Iran and the straits of Hormuz go into lockdown. Or you'll be back after the fed cuts interest rates to forestall a real estate crack up crash and your dollar spirals downward out of control.
....
ooh I like making predictions. :-D

Here's mine: (it does NOT matter whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates).
1) UP - stock market and real estate goes to hell
2) DOWN - US dollar goes to hell and we get nasty inflation

*select your poison*
The end result will be the same. The average American is going to lose either way.

I think TPTB (the powers that be) will keep interest rates in check and here's why. If they raise it, the market will crash and Americans will blame the government for wiping out their 401K stock retirement and McMansions. But if they leave rates in check and if (correction - when inflation goes up) TPTB can always blame inflation on Big Oil or the Arabs for "making oil $$$".

History has clearly shown that when things go bad there is ALWAYS a scapegoat. A politician will never refuse an opportunity to deflect blame elsewhere.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby BigTex » Thu 24 Aug 2006, 21:43:42

The U.S. and Chinese economies are like gas guzzling sports cars that have awesome acceleration...right up until they run out of gas and then they come to a complete stop. So yeah, right now we are seeing awesome displays of acceleration and performance, but what's fueling this display of power? Same thing that has fueled all industrialization--cheap oil. $72 a barrel is still pretty cheap compared to where it is going.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 25 Aug 2006, 02:05:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mortifiedpenguin', 'I') have come to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event...I'll start worrying when something worth worrying about actually happens.

Goodbye.

Pretty obvious rewrite of JohnDenver's post. Still basically a copy-and-paste job.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby rwwff » Fri 25 Aug 2006, 02:43:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ') Oh, and a major American city is still in ruins a year after a natural disaster...


Umm, you aren't suggesting that rebuilding a below sea level city, on the Gulf Coast just as we enter a long active hurricane cycle, as the Greenland ice sheet anounces its intention of joining the ocean, makes sense are you?

Put simply. New Orleans needs to be abandoned in place, perhaps with a bit of left over tourist district or something on the few spots that are reasonably high ground.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 25 Aug 2006, 09:34:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mortifiedpenguin', 'I') have come to the conclusion that peak oil is a non-event...I'll start worrying when something worth worrying about actually happens.

Goodbye.

Pretty obvious rewrite of JohnDenver's post. Still basically a copy-and-paste job.


Plagarized for sure. I edited his post to give credit where due.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 25 Aug 2006, 17:48:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ') Oh, and a major American city is still in ruins a year after a natural disaster...


Umm, you aren't suggesting that rebuilding a below sea level city, on the Gulf Coast just as we enter a long active hurricane cycle, as the Greenland ice sheet anounces its intention of joining the ocean, makes sense are you?

Put simply. New Orleans needs to be abandoned in place, perhaps with a bit of left over tourist district or something on the few spots that are reasonably high ground.


No, I'm suggesting the resources for clean up (not even rebuilding, just clean up) are apparently not available, in spite of everything being just fine according to mortified penguin.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Kfish » Fri 25 Aug 2006, 23:32:50

A little OT, and yet ...

In case you're still wondering, threadbear, a friend's father told how he kept his bare feet warm as a child bringing cows in for milking before dawn: warm, fresh cow pats. If you're nimble, you can jump from one to the next as the previous one cools down.

His wife, a high-society socialite, interrupted the conversation at this point.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby drew » Sat 26 Aug 2006, 09:32:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')No, I'm suggesting the resources for clean up (not even rebuilding, just clean up) are apparently not available, in spite of everything being just fine according to mortified penguin.


When did America really care about poor black folks, or what's left of their homes?

There is plenty of money floating around.

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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby rwwff » Sat 26 Aug 2006, 17:48:23

51/49 black vs white.
higher bias towards older people.

I think it had a lot more to do with poor than black.

Choosing to live below sea level might of had something to do with it as well.
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Re: The Coming Peak Oil Grand Depression

Unread postby Denny » Sat 26 Aug 2006, 19:33:51

Assuming we will seeing a wave of bankruptcies, this article makes me wonder if even failure is coming in two "flavors" in America, one for the rich and one for the poor:

From New York Times:

n Delaware, Privacy for Big Paychecks

Bankruptcy court is supposed to be a place where facts remain out in the open. But that seems to be changing in Delaware, one of the largest homes for corporate bankruptcy cases.

The Werner Company, a maker of ladders, filed for Chapter 11 reorganization in June; its bankruptcy is being overseen by Judge Kevin J. Carey of United States bankruptcy court in Delaware.

Earlier this month, Judge Carey agreed to seal documents detailing bonuses that will be paid to nine Werner executives. The move came after company lawyers argued that the pay disclosures “may create low morale and an unhealthy work environment” at Werner. The judge also shut out the public from the Aug. 17 hearing on the pay.


Call me old fashioned, but why are executives pocketing any bonuses from a comnpany they have piloted into bankruptcy?

The courts have found no problem rolling back worker wages and even retirees pensions in bankruptcy cases, but this judge is so coddling when it comes to executive bonuses.

I am wondering if and when a serious depression happens, if it won't lead to some form of revolution if the burden is all born by workers while the bosses party on. Judges are supposed to be above this and favor neither rich nor poor.
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