It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
jean maurice on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 8:54 pm
It is called the code of honor of the warrior. You took my weapon you have to die. This is how I see it.
Joe munchin on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 9:19 pm
Either you kill me or I kill all earth population because of Canada firearms laws. Such is the code of the warrior by which I live. Nobody confiscate the weapons of a warrior and live.
carl ttremblae on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 9:42 pm
It is not a small jet , it is a missile. Look at the size of the explosion. Civil war beginning in US soil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aVEWL9_tk8
jermeina babe on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 9:50 pm
A missile has been shot into a location where the governor is Jewish. This is a hidden message and a hidden declaration of war against Jewish people on US soil.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_governors_of_Pennsylvania
Aline fleuridon on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 9:55 pm
Philadelphia , colloquially referred to as Philly, is the most populous city in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania.
This is the biggest city that was bomb with a missile. It is an hidden message for the Jews living on US soil. Leave the US now while you still can.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia
This was a missile. This was an internal attack against an internal enemy, the Jewish people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aVEWL9_tk8
yello tramble on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 10:51 pm
If I remember currently, the canal rideau is another way to supply the King state with goods in the case the road where to be destroyed during. It is King estate is design to able to endure a long duration war with alternate supply routes. I made mistake the personal army lives with the King and garde the permit of the Estate. Small light infantry is keep with the perimeter of the estate. This is how I remember it.
Hleine acme on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 11:43 pm
His first visits will be South American nations not Europe. It is a clean indication that they want a separation from Europe and Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vM-LBMhUVpE
Finally getting it. Globalism is a failure and fuck Europe
Selene yabul on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 4:26 am
I think they were a bunch of rebellions inside of earth. One rebellion where we killed women to rebelle against the flesh body.
I think there were a rebellion among the Kings of the earth, where we sabotaged our own Kingdom from the inside.
That would explain why there is older black and white pictures with empty street. I don’t know why I am writing this, but I will write it anyway. being a King is a shitty jobs. I think the Kings of earth sabotaged their own Kingdoms as rebellion. We really damage earth reality to the point where we came really close to exterminate the whole human race. We almost made it, fucking cuck suckers.
farine de blue on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 4:30 am
I have never worked or help the Jews in past, I will never work with them in the futur. I have always hated the Jews and I will always hate them. There can be no peace among me and the Jews until I kill all of them.
Yannick Despres on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 4:44 am
I doubt that you will be able to install Kings to rule over earth. This form of governance is dead and it is not coming back. It is over for earth, we fuck up earth really in good in the past and what you see today in are direct consequences of the sabotage we did to earth reality. It is fucking over for your piece of shit reality. Only the chosen will live.
Yeu sman on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 5:45 am
I usually dont like to put porn link movie. This one is an exception. Who come up with this? As I said there is a sexual realm somewhere only accessible to certain beings.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/alt-dominatrix-pegging-tattooed-worker-xheqrh9
Jeuse treme on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 5:47 am
You want to see reptile tongue. Porn movie are full of it. See at 3:00. They are not hiding it
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/lena-und-die-verfickte-tattooschlampe-6865921
Bertrane jeqnie on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 6:00 am
6:15 there is some tongue. My question is this real or only CGI. If it is CGI, you write these scenario. I told you there is a sexual and a procreation real somewhere. I still believe that we can kill everyone on earth and still easily repopulate. Maybe this is how they did it in the past.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/creampie-bukkake-party-for-german-milf-and-stepdaughter-xh79WqH
This will be my last video link. I think I have illustrated my point good enough.
iliane fernale on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 6:12 am
If there is a sexual or procreation realm, killing them is a waste of time. They will just use the sexual realm to repopulate earth. Anybody knows anything about this sexual realm. Anybody travel there and came back to talk about it.
elene farlane on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 7:06 am
If there is a procreation or sexual realm that can be used repopulate earth, it is a waste of time to try to kill them. Maybe we should give up. I am not sure why I am still doing this. it feels like a waste of time. I suspect that there is procreation realm and we are hopeless against stopping them.
valerie valina on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 7:15 am
After seeing the porn videos in the comments above, I don’t belie anymore that killing them is the right course of action. I think we should just give up. They seems to have a really efficient procreation realm. This is how they repopulated earth after the flood.
heline aline on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 7:30 am
I will explain something to some of you who seems to have no testosterones. Any man that has an average testosterones level will easily get an erection and ejaculation if he is dumped into one of these procreation chamber as shown the links above. Any normal men will get an erection and a strong ejaculation inside a women in such procreation environment. They can easily kill everyone on earth and repopulate using one or two males breeder and a lot female.
Hate Jews on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 12:41 pm
I hated the Jews in the past, I hate the Jews now, I will hate the Jews in the futur. I will always hate the Jews. Only their total extermination will stop me from hating them. Who ever is a friend of the Jews is my enemy and deserve death.
Uluse alaine on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 12:52 pm
As I said many time there is a procreation room located in the invisible world. We can kill all the population of earth and repopulate if we need to. We don’t need earth population. Earth population is expendable and had no real value to us.
valeire ooline on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 2:42 pm
This was a King Estate in the past. One of these building was his personal residence. One of these was for the people administering the nation. One is for the staff serving King. Notice it is next to the water. In Time of war you want to have supply route through land and a supply route through water. Missing a lot of building. This was designed to be able to endure a 50 year long war. Missing other buildings, such as military command center. Notice that building are empty on the inside. This is some kind of rest area. We don’t see that anymore.
https://www.stockaerialphotos.com/media/66c94b91-7d58-41cc-a129-ab61ec45dcb3-parliament-hill
My guess is that there were a revolt of the Kings of the earth and they sabotaged their own kingdom. That lead to the death of lot of people. This is why they are pushing sexual reproducing heavily using music, sport and entertainment. I am also pretty sure they were crusade against women. Feminism is too heavily focus on violence against women and not enough about making women better person overall by helping them build self confidence. My guess is that they were multiples rebellions on earth with violence on a scale we cannot imagine.
Heline marcella on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 3:07 pm
There is too much focus on peace, see United Nations or International criminal tribunal and too much focus on women violence for this to be normal. You would focus on these only if the past was really violent and bloody. There have multiple rebellions on earth. A rebellion against women and a Kings of the earth rebellion. It almost exterminated the whole human race. As soon as the TV color became affordable, it felt like earth entered an accelerated time vortex. Computer evolution was really rapide, including cell phone. Someone has an agenda and was in a rush to implement it as if he was running out of time.
Marc lepine on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 3:53 pm
I am pretty sure that Marc Lepine was a time traveller. It was a warming send to them. Fix your shit or we will restart the crusade against women.
Denis Trudeal on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 3:59 pm
Me personally I hate women, I would them if it was legal. Just look how much they care about violence against. Look at the date on the video
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=wef+violence+against+women
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=united+nations+violence+against+women
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=feminism+violence+against+women
In past they were very violent crusade against women. Marc Lépine was talking to them not to us on earth. It was a warning that. They did the exact opposite. They double down on feminsm and gun laws.
Francine Lalonde on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 4:00 pm
Me personally I hate women, I would kill them if it was legal. Just look how much they care about violence against. Look at the date on the video.
Yellon heline on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 4:17 pm
I think there were 3 main rebellions on earth, one rebellion against the Jews, one rebellion against women, and one rebellion from the Kings of Earth. This is why they talk about peace all the time and this is why the Jews are afraid. There were a past rebellion that almost kill of them. We might see another rebellion against the Jews and women. That would not surprised me a bit.
This make me thing that a crusade against women and Jews is being prepared by the invisible world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RxXRLDRqhk
ctv news on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 4:26 pm
The invisible world will create the soldiers needed to run the crusade against women and Jews using these vehicles. Apparently they did not listen the warning form Marc Lépine and double down on feminism and oppressive guns laws. They must be shown who run this world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsVVZPQ540
Ilaine regis on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 6:32 pm
The US does not manufacturing anything. The goal of the tariff is to start hyperinflation in the US and eventually a civil war. After that the crusade against women and the Jews will begin.
Because the US manufactured nothing, the tarif will passed directly into the US population creating hyperinflation. Civil war will follow. Exactly like in the movie civil war. I can wait the moment where I will be able to kill women and Jews again.
alaine depurie on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 6:52 pm
No, I won’t play an active part in the civil war. I will stay home. As a lone wolf I am go out and kill a couple of women and Jews but that is about. I did war before and I am not interested to do war again. I will stay home and sleep instead. I was a King before and I will never be a King again. Some else can do these shit jobs.
I want to exit this world either through death or dimensional travel.
Regit denis on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 6:58 pm
I am pretty sure I was a King in a past life. I am pretty sure there were a rebellion of the Kings of earth and we sabotaged our kingdom and kill millions. Earth has a violence history that they are hiding from us. I have kill millions of people before. It is time for somebody else to do the dirty job. I did my part.
Eleine Fernadi on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 7:26 pm
you wasting your time doing a crusade against the long necks. They have a really efficient procreation realm. It will take them about 15 years to repopulate the earth. But you are just fucking losers, I don’t expect much from you. After all, you were nowhere to be found when I needed handguns for personal protection. I don’t expect much coming out of you.
Tremem jean on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 7:32 pm
I will watch you failed from the conform of my bed. I will watch you failed like the fucking losers you all are.
Yellne elaine on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 7:55 pm
How many Kings did we find crying alone in their room. There is a reason why we destroyed our kingdoms and try to exterminate everyone living on earth. I will not help you save this shit planet. Not after what I saw in my past life.
GET that girl out of that house she simply have to get out so I opened the door can't get in that way my body can't get through the door only your hand so we kicked the bottom and she came out she said there some girls in there call 911 on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 8:13 pm
MUZZ-19 completely destroyed elite OG supertard presidents of PO forum
Regie heline on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 8:27 pm
You should have seen what we did to these fucking cocker in past. You should have seen how we killed people like Trudeau, Legault, Leblanc. I wish some of you would have been there to witness the fucking savagery that we were capable of doing back in the old days.
Violence against women, We invented violence against women. Rape is not violence against women,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnvyrKvo-2w
Jaime presley on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 8:35 pm
Some of us work tirelessly at destroy earth reality and exterminating everyone living on earth. You really think that after all the work we did to destroy earth, I will come help you save earth. What the fuck is wrong with you. You were not there for me when I needed handguns, I am surely not going to be there for you. Nobody takes away the weapons of a warrior.
ulyse freancis on Sat, 1st Feb 2025 8:45 pm
The immigrants that are invading earth here to stay and I will not come to help you kill them. The immigrants that are here on earth fit my agenda that is the destruction of earth reality and the extermination of everyone. I worked hard in the past to destroy earth and kill everyone on it. The immigrants and I have the same agenda. So they are actually my friends unlike you who is never there for me.
regie tramen on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 2:14 am
I think after the rebellion of the Kings of the Earth, They vanished and this is when they started to lie to hide their incompetency. They were basically incompetent losers and we were to one that has to deal with their BS. We rebelle against them. I think that how it happen. Being a King is a shitty job. I will never to do it again.
D
Alain deupi on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 2:54 am
When the decision was made that we had enough, we sabotaged the whole fucking planet as a form of rebellion. If a remember correctly there were 3 rebellons going on at the same, crusade against women, crusade against the Jews and Kings of the world rebellions. Violence on a scale people cannot image. The Jews and women still remember to this day the crusade we die against them. They just vanished to never be seen again. They still continue to lie to hide their incompetence. Worst job I ever had. I will never do it again. Fucking pieces of shit cock suckers,
Heline aliname on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 4:45 am
To this day, the Jews and women remember the crusades that the Kings of the earth organized against them. To this day, women remember that it is us that have created violence against women, not rape real violence against women. To this day the Jews remember how we tortured them before death. To this day women remember how we rape them before we killed them in their own vaginal bloods.
Ulysse quran on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 4:54 am
I did my share of the dirty work in the past. I will stay away this time. I did enough.
betrine plastic on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:16 am
If you think I will start a second crusade against women and Jews you are mistaken. I did one and it was enough. Stupid piece of shit, you dare to take my weapons from me and you know expect me to help you, I don’t think so.
Oxuene flire on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 8:37 am
I am not here to save earth or its population. I have worked so hard trying to destroy earth and exterminate its population, there is no way I will come to the rescue of earth of its population. I have a full life in the past. It is time for me to leave as soon as my body is ready for time travel. I was a King in the past, a warrior, I have killed millions, I have killed Jews, Women, Men, Kids. I have raped women. It is time for me to leave.
I am here to see you failed. I am here to walk over earth population cadavers. Always remember that when you read my comments.
Karine leo on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 8:46 am
Nobody confiscate the weapons of a warrior and expect that something good will come out of that. Just remember that next time if you are still alive.
Jerome grahime on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 9:30 am
We are making fun of everything on earth including your educational system. I have seen in trade school technical drawing like this shown to students fresh out of high school that did not have the life experience needed to understand these kind of drawing. This video is making fun of Québec trade schools system. Fuck you are just a bunch of fucking losers, you really deserve extermination.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFtpDdn9aG8
Look at the title of video. This is where we are making fun of earth education system.
Tu es en Sciences Math B ? Découvre les secrets de la science de l’ingénieur avec moi !Cours et exercices pour maîtriser les Sciences de l’Ingénieur en toute simplicité.
There is nothin simple about reading these fucking drawning. You really deserver fucking extermination.
Nadien carramle on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 9:35 am
Instead of bothering men like me with abusive firearms laws, maybe you should fix your fucking school system. Fucking losers.
Josee lavigeur on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 9:38 am
I told you there were a revolt by the Kings of earth because you are too stupid and incompetent to manage anything. It was making our life miserable. You remember the crusade against the Jews and Women. The Jews and women still remember these crusades.
Jean lapire on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 9:43 am
This is all you are good for. Their leaders talk, and talk and talk. Their world crumble. This all you are good for talking and using a lot of words that meaning nothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw
yelloe jean on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 10:17 am
You see these four stupid cock sucker. We killed so many of them. They had to endure a long session of torture before death. I took a knife and pull out both of their eyes, we watch them walking in a room and falling down on the ground. Image two hours completely blind bleeding from both eyes and people around you laughing at you. Peace and dialog my ass. Pain, and more pain and death was how we were operating. with these fucking losers. You will never read that part of history in the history books. Our savagery was unimaginable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4ba9p8XKD0
nadine marcotte on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 10:43 am
I did it once, and I would not redo it again. Once is enough. I want to be extracted from earth.
trembal jeanj on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 10:48 am
You take a fucking bitch, a women, you cut the skin between her anus and lower part of her vagina. You put glove and fist her until she die in pain and she bleeds all over the ground, then you piss on her. We invented real violence against women. Rape is not violence against women.
Never take away the weapons of a warrior, you never know what you might unleash upon yourself.