It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Ollysse retard on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:49 pm
Nobody fights in the winter with a steel helmet. It does not prove any insulation against heat loss. You head will become really cold. Nobody fight like with a steel helmet in winter. You fight with a tuque. Try it at -10 Celsius for 3 hours in a row, and come back to me. See 4:36
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmjaBZmCn3E
Fucking cock sucer. Kill young fertile women and watch them panic,
Jaim presley on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:55 pm
I don’t have access to gun because I live in Canada I cannot test my theory. I suspect the ammo are really heavy and you can carry only a small amount on you. How long before you deplete all the ammo you are carrying on you.
This why I like the light tactical vehicle. You can carry a lot of ammo compare to what you can carry if you are a foot soldier.
Fucking cock suckers.
ulyse heline on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:58 pm
The most efficient type of army is a light tactical army. Small helicopters and small vehicles. If you are capable of producing a lot of ammo really fast, this is really lethal compare to a tank.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsVVZPQ540
gremeling welling on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:02 pm
Fighting in the desert dressed in winter clothing with a hat. You fight almost naked in the desert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06aLXHpMieE
Jaime jolene on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:30 pm
I still believe there were a rebellion from the Kings of earth. A crusade against Jews and fertile women. These guys knew how to run a really lethal army. Light tactical vehicle and helicopters. There were using 12 or 410 gauge semi-automatic rifles and were shotting people direct in the face. There dress using regular civilian clothing. They want us to run an inefficient army so we are not a real threat to them.
Notice how the 12 gauge is never seen in war movies. They almost decimated the whole humans race because they were real military men. Violence against women. How push such a narrative so hard. Because we win the war and almost kill all of them.
regit latune on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:34 pm
The only airplane that seems to make sense from a lethality point of view is th A10. The rest are overcomplicated garbage with low lethality factor.
Yelloe rouge on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:38 pm
This is all I have heard since I am born, peace and violence against women. Never seen so much talk about violence against women on TV and the internet.
Joe letazi on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:49 pm
All I heard all my life is violence against women. Eventually a man start to ask himself why are they talking about this so much. Because the crusade against fertile women was almost successful. Same with the antisemitism. Because the crusade against the jews was almost successful.
Beetreal plastic on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:50 pm
My legs and arms hurt again. Fucking annoying.
forbes news on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:07 pm
Not as lethal as I thought, but still better than the F-35 piece of crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xg-bp2Cv9kg
Jean jolne on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:12 pm
Really not so bad to patrol around a perimeter and kill people that try to escape
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIph_7yCtzk
Joe letaxi on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:21 pm
Look at how maneuverable it is. Perfect to garde a perimeter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0j7UCEP8Mn4
greme trump on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:31 pm
fucking communist. I kill millions like him before. Fucking parasitic leach.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/opp7pKN0g-w
yannick laporte on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:43 pm
You see this fucking guy, he is a fucking loser that cannot survive on his own, He cannot fix his car, he cannot make his own clothing. He needs to parasite a superior host to stay alive.
We will hear him cry at night in his apartment after we cut the water and electricity. He will stay in his apartment paralyzed by fear. You can kill millions of these if you know what you are doing.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/opp7pKN0g-w
He is telling straight to your face that he needs a savior to stay alive. We need someone that like people. What he is meaning is that he need a savior to stay alive. You can kill millions of these losers if you know what you are doing. The same we killed millions of Jews and women.
Ulyse jaime on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 4:29 pm
Look at this fucking loser. He looks like a ghost. He looks like someone that does not have a real flesh body. What the fuck is going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuPvvAclTD8
Eleian termle on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 4:33 pm
Look at Dawkins he wants to cry. Look at the size of the ears on the men with no hair. What the fuck is going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAV_0s1c2V4
Heline yelloe on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 4:39 pm
Look at this fucking cock sucker, he looks like a ghost. What the fuck is going on. Look at his fucking face
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0qbigRMqW8
ctv news on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 4:44 pm
10:41 look at her face. I guess we have entered into a twilight vortex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvBR0OGT5VI
Heline reigs on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 4:47 pm
I told you that earth entered into a accelerated time vortex. It started 10 year after I was born, around 1977. Someone can manipulate time.
WE ate RIBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBSS with this dude on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 4:52 pm
I appoint all elite supertard presidents supertard
Their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies
jean lapierre on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 5:01 pm
Are going backward in time or forward in time.
Backward means that we can see what they look like before they started to modify earth reality.
yelloe tremblae on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 5:52 pm
24:55 they have a really nice sexual realm out there. It is not for everyone but it is what you would expect to find in a sexual realm.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/sexy-slut-finds-herself-in-the-woods-getting-her-ass-fucked-xhpYGn4
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/la-bimbo-a-la-con-sert-d-urinoir-et-de-serpillere-a-jus-10397813
regi trime on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 7:13 pm
How do we change the entropic degradation calculator so steel stopping rusting using YouTube. This is your fucking question. I fucking don’t know. I am not sure if it is possible.
kaine yellow on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 7:21 pm
Steel rusting is a chemical process. You will have to change the chemical model. You will have to erase some part of chemistry knowledge and replace it with something else. How are you going to do that.
Entropic degradation in general. I need to think about that longer. I don’t it is possible.
Remene fername on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 7:27 pm
Give me a lot of money if it is that important to you. I could buy chemistry books and a better house to run more experiments. It will take a 1000 years. There is a limit of what I can go with my shit car and my small house.
Grammay jean on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 7:42 pm
The next evolutionary leap will done by changing the matrix of solid by removing friction. You will have to destroy earth to do it. The next evolutionary leap will be done by adding news theory to the concept of electricity and magnetism. It means destroying the earth. You want to do it. Well, I dont know what to say. Kill everyone on earth and give me an upgraded body that can manipulate electricity and magnetism.
What kind of dumbass question is that removing entropic degradation. You know it cannot be done while on earth.
Ulyse jaime on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 7:49 pm
Yes, a Scientific reality for me alone. Just for me and nobody else. I work alone, I have always work alone. You want a scientific reality inside a matrix of solid like earth. I work alone just remember that. I want to see how you will arrange that without an upgrade body or with an upgrade body. This for historical record in case we destroy earth.
Yes you will have to destroy earth to install a scientific reality. I am ok with destroying earth. I promise myself that I would destroy earth because of canada firearms laws. Nobody confiscate the weapons of a warrior and live.
It is a warrior rule that weapons are untouchable under no circonstance. I want to send a clear message about that.
Elaine regis on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 7:56 pm
Yes earth is populated with only loser. Yes killing earth population make sense.
Nobody touches the weapons of a warrior. I have a warrior code and they must be killed for that. Yes they are just pathetic losers.
Denis regis on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 7:58 pm
These comments are for historical if we decide to destroy earth. Nobody fucks with they weapons of a warrior. Nobody.
Eleine reidg on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:05 pm
That was my idea. I control the whole energy field of earth using my mind. I guess I will be the energy field that I will control with my mind. Something like that. Obviously that will destroy earth that I approve.
Lone joline on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:08 pm
An singularity energy point. You said that not me. We expand the energy field outward of the energy singularity to create the reality I see with my mind. I like your idea. for historical record.
Jaime lachute on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:13 pm
Yes, the concept of a matrix of solid hold together by gravity and friction and only modifiable by heat is a primitive reality without any future.
ctv news on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:17 pm
What I think of the use of copper to transport electricity. It is a matrix of solid, you need something solid to transport energy, earth use copper wire. No we remove the matrix of solid.
Dolly parton on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:20 pm
This is the kind of discussion I have in private that I usually don’t share with the rest of the world.
WE ate RIBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBSS with this dude and didnt have a clue on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:55 pm
I appoint all elite supertard presidents supertard
Their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies
I KNEW some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black mans arms on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 10:51 pm
I appoint all elite supertard presidents supertard
Their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies
Elaine graham on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 1:44 am
Some of you people are not intelligent. I told you that we are mocking everything about earth. We are mocking earth habit to have signature agreement in public. Trump signing executive orders is us mocking earth habit of having public signature agreement. We basically think that earth is populated with only losers.
0:27 signature session of nation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGtnTx6S7e4
This is us mocking earth habit by having trump imitating the what you see above. We have been mocking earth for at least 4 year. When we are done mocking, we will all earth population
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKHCOLFXH2E
yllow welling on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 1:46 am
When we are done mocking, we will kill all earth population. We have no respect at all for earth and its population
Elain trudeau on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 2:05 am
Canada and Québec care more about making really restrictive gun laws then fixing the educational trade school system that is broken. Earth population really deserve to be exterminated.
forbes making on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 2:15 am
I told you that there is 6 realms on earth that I remembered: life, death, sexual, war, time traveling, and hybrid animal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4Onf7P4lh4
joe matriarchal on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 3:25 am
This is the realm of hybrid animal. You look out of place if you have an human flesh body. You feel you don’t belong there. See at 0:52
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnGcQcPUc18
jesus page on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:16 am
I love the sexual realm as a vacation place. This is where you go when you run out inspiration. Some women in there are not women, theye are pure sexual energy at its purest form. If I remember correctly there is a protocol before procreation called sperm worshipping. They worship your sperm as something unique and precious. It is to prepare you for procreation. When you are ready the female procreator is presented to you and you procreate. Really nice place. It pure sexual energy with nothing else. This is how I remember it. It is probably not accurate, but this is how I remember it. You can leave your creation realm and visit them but they cannot come into yours as it is a secret place for creation and only you one this place.
You can visit other realms, and they will usually do as if you don’t exist like the hybrid animal realm.
Alain allo on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:18 am
google BDSM sperm worshipping. They explain is a little bit.
grahme latulipe on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:20 am
On earth everyone can procreate. Even the losers can procreate.
Jean regis on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:28 am
There is some women in the sexual realm that can only have pleasure through violent sexual domination. They are so turned on by violence that the confuse the feeling of orgasm with the death. While they are dying, these women think they are reaching orgasme. There is a intersecting between sex and death and some are confuse by it. Sometime you end up with dead women during sexual domination.
Really nice place to vacation. I would not live there full time, but as a vacation spot it is top notch.
jamie presley on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:31 am
Personally I want earth destroyed and everyone living in it dead. I want all the Jews of the earth exterminated.
Denise Lafarge on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:33 am
Nothing good and positive has ever come out from the Jewish people. they just destroy everything that is beautiful and unique. Their extermination is justified from my point of view.
thor king on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:37 am
People confuse little people with kids as we know them on earth. I think she is not a kid, she is a full grown adult ready for procreation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMKq9OG8TQA
Jaime Presley on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:47 am
Is there some men that can procreate with everything. Was the question. You mean generic procreators. I think so. I think there are some men that have sperm compatible with all the species of the universe. I think they are called the tree of life. I am not totally sure.
xeno total on Tue, 4th Feb 2025 4:59 am
Yes this is how I remember. A man that is a tree of life can procreate with an animal hybrid. Not sure what kind of offspring you get.