It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
regit depres on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 10:49 am
The things we have done to these fucking cock sucker.
graopho trembaly on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 10:57 am
It does not work that way. You kill the girl first then you kill the man in front of you. You never negotiate anything, you just kill.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/DYgw-xMTK78
Ulyse cpac on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 11:15 am
When you start a crusade you dont stop. Either you die during the crusade, either your army get decimated so you have to stop , you kill all your enemies hem so you have to stop because there is nobody else kill.
Jeand lapointe on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 11:24 am
A crusade never stop. It only stop when you get kill or you kill all of them. Ask the Jews if they remember the crusade with did against them. Not the holocaust, the crusade.
Jean reigis on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 11:37 am
There won’t be a second a crusade because I changed my mind and I now support mass migration. I fought to kill everyone on earth, but somehow we failed. Immigrants will do the job I was not able to do. Destroy earth civilisation and kill everyone living on earth. The invaders are now my friend. Nobody is coming to help you, certainly not me.
Never confiscate the weapons of a warrior.
oil depleted on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 12:44 pm
I dare you to come to house and ask for my help. Come and see what kind of fuck you will get.
yeleo tremave on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 12:58 pm
I dare you to come to my house and ask me for help. I dare you fucking stupid pieces of shit.
Come and see what kind of fucking answer you will get. Nobody confiscate my weapons from me, including the invisible world. No, it is more then a disagreement.
Ulyse regie on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 2:59 pm
The immigrante are my friends you are my enemy. Everyone that tries to stop the immigrants are my enemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vgIXB2eOXA
I want earth destroyed and everyone on it dead. If I have to use immigrants to achieve my goal so be it. Nobody has ever took my weapons from me in the past, it will never happen in the futur after I kill all of you.
I failed to kill all of you in past, maybe the immigrant can do for me.
Fuck you on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 3:06 pm
Someone that want to stop the immigrante is somone that want to keep earth slavery prison alive and want to exploit people for it hard manual labor. |Exacly like this piece of shit of DeSantis.
Bertnar plasice on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 3:08 pm
The only way to free people from their flesh body is to kill everyone on earth. This is the only fucking way.
Legault grossemerde on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 3:11 pm
If we have to use the immigrants to accelerate natural ressources depletion and kill everyone on earth so be it. Maybe they can success where I failed
Jean lapointe on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 4:48 pm
The best way to liberate people is to exterminate the whole human race. Crusade are too much work. Use the immigrants to help kill every human on earth. Open the flood gate and let the immigrants in. It will speed up natural ressources depletion and this will lead the permanent shutdown of the electrical grid. Once the electrical grid is permanently shutdown the human race will die and Satan wont be able to download souls into a flesh body vehicle. A soul not attached to flesh body does not suffer physical pain and cannot be used as a slave to do hard manual labor. That was the purpose of the crusade and the killing of fertile women, to destroy Satan creation.
nathalie lapierre on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 4:58 pm
If you kill just the fertile women, there can be no new birth, so your soul cannot be recycled into a human flesh vehicle because there is no birth taking place because all fertile female were killed. So you became a free soul.
This is why they are panicking and writing love songs, women beach volleyball and so on. No birth no recycling of souls, they lose their human slave labor, and it will kill their creation.
aleie cpac on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:05 pm
This is what Marc Lépine did, He killed fertile women only, He went after the fertile women. We do the same thing. We stop the transfer of souls into a flesh body by killing fertile women. Everyone that is pushing to increase birth is the enemy of the human race.
SO I opened the door can't get in that way my body can't get through the door only your hand so we kicked the bottom and she came out she said there some girls in there call 911 on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:16 pm
MUZZ-19 is toxic sludge mRNA
Yellow tremblay on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:25 pm
How do you tell Satan that you are at war against him. You take fertile women between 13 to 30 year old and you kill them in a public everyone of a crowd.
Or like we did, you take a pregnant women you kill her, open her womb take the baby out and put it next to her mother. You do that with all the pregnant women you can find. Satan will understand what you are saying.
You do a crusade against fertile women, Satan will understand the message.
Wellen Regis on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:33 pm
A civil war will help you do that, killing fertile women. You can do everything you want during a civil war, there is no police force and the army is to busy to care about a group of men killing pregnant women and opening their womb to show Satan that we know.
I KNEW something wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaadd giveaway my neighbor got big testicles cuz we see this dude everyday we at ribbbbbbbbs with this dude and didnt have a clue on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:35 pm
MUZZ-19 is toxic sludge mRNA
kill pregno on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:43 pm
They said violence against women is bad. It is just a way to stop men from killing fertile women. It is a way to make you feel guilty about killing pregnant women and fertile women.
I said we kill pregnant women, cut the womb open and show Satan the dead baby by holding it by one leg up in the air. He will get it.
If you start a crusade against fertile women and pregnant women, he will understand what you are trying to do.
Caroline putain on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:48 pm
You carry an utility knife to open a women womb. I show you mine and my tactical vest. You carry gloves with you. You show Satan you mean bussiness.
Denis Trudelle on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:52 pm
When you go a crusade you will need some kind of tactical vest and a utility knife. The purpose of the utility knife is to torture to death a guy like Leblanc. They can die slowly or fast depending how you use your utility knife. I told that during the rebellion of the Kings of the earth, we did things to people that are unimaginable. the savagery we were capable of was unheard before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njzAUN0je2g
Jews know on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 5:59 pm
The Jews know what I am talking about. They know what we did to them during the crusade against them.
denai uable on Sun, 2nd Feb 2025 6:03 pm
How does this simulation works. Each time I make death threat, people look like they want to cry. Look at the fucking whore, she wants to cry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsch-Nh6G6w
Jean laporet on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:03 am
The Jews remember the last crusade we did to try to exterminate them all. They invented the holocaust to try to protect themself against another crusade. The holocaust was a hoax created as a mean to try to protect the Jews against futur crusade that will finish them off for good.
Abolishing whiteness has never been more urgent
Noel Ignatiev showed us how.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2019/11/17/abolishing-whiteness-has-never-been-more-urgent/
Another crusade will probably be successful at exterminating them. You will never read that in the history book.
Karine grahe on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:18 am
Women remember also the last crusade that we did against them in the goal to exterminate them. The invented women against violence and feminism to try to protect themself against another crusade. A lot of violence and rebellion in the past. Savagery that people cannot imagine.
Notice it is called violence against girl and women. Who is fertile, the girl, who you kill first, fertile female. You make a big show in public to show to Satan that you know.
Ending Violence against women and girls: If not you, who?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_ZPHPutN-c
They know we might back come and restarte another crusade against fertile women.
What is the difference between “girl, lady, and woman?” [closed]
https://ell.stackexchange.com/questions/29536/what-is-the-difference-between-girl-lady-and-woman
woman is a tricky one, since it can be used in situations to show disrespect, such as a man claiming he is superior than a woman. Woman is fine though when describing a female above the age of 18, as long as it’s not in a chauvinistic or demeaning way. And woman is likely preferred by most females that are above the age of 18. However, it’s probably more common for women above 25 to be called woman, and under 25 to be called girl.
They we might come back and finish the job and kill Satan creation for good
Obame michelle on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:23 am
They know that we might come back and finish what we failed to do the first time.
Canadian Army Buys 90 Light Tactical Vehicles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1RCiaPlslg
Jaime Preslye on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 2:45 am
The old Kings of the earth, could also be called the Kings of war, or the war Lords. They might come back on earth just to finish the job.
Regie karine on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:02 am
The old Kings of the earth, could also be called the Kings of war, or the war Lords. The old Kings of the earth might came back to close permanently earth reality by killing all fertile females. Who knows
lolo preganant on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:15 am
We will restart an old crusade where we target only the fertile women and pregnant. Open th women of pregnant women and show to Satan the baby you should pull out of the women.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/B4t5GOjYB3w
You remember this crusade against fertile women done by the Kings of earth. I am sure you remember that after all you are the one that has create the meme called violence against women. Do you remember
xeno tremblea on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:18 am
You remember that crusade against fertile women. You remember how we almost won.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-AkRXKRU0yA
Denis latrutide on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 3:37 am
I have killed million of these. They are losers. You sabotage the electrical grid and water supply and you leave. You set a perimeter around the city and you kill whoever try to leave. You can hear them cry at night when it is really dark and cold. Pure delight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIp3yHt5yaM
Kill all the fertile women is a better strategy and assure ourself that earth reality will cease to exist. You don’t keep a slavery prison alive you destroy it for ever by killing all fertile women.
yelloe alina on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:34 am
The code of conduct of the warrior demand that I kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Come to my house and dare to ask for my help and see what kind of answer you will get me.
You bloods and death are demanded. There is another realm beyond life, call the realm of death with its own rules. I must feed this realm with you death or cadavers if you will.
Never confiscate the weapons of a warrior, you never know what you will unleash upon yourself including the death of everyone on earth. You fall for the fucking trap.
Heline seelna on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:53 am
There is 4 realms I remembered. The realm of life, the realm of death, the sexual realm/procreation realm and the realm of war.
I will ship all the population of earth into the realm of death. If yo think you are suffering now, you have seen anything yet. You deserver the realm of death. Wait until you reach the realm of death. Stupid cock suckers. You dared to take away the weapons of time warriors. Stupid pieces of shit
ulyse weram on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 8:56 am
There is 5 realms I remembered. The realm of life, the realm of death, the sexual realm/procreation realm, the realm of war and the time traveller realm.
You dared to take away the weapons of a time warriors. Stupid pieces of shit. Fucking pieces of shit low IQ
Rejean lucianne on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 10:56 am
I kind of like the sexual realm. It is about finding news ways to increase the pleasure at the orgasm point. I kept good memories of this realm. It a nice place. I am not sure you can enter this realm if you have a real flesh body.
regid latrendree on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 11:07 am
I think there is a realm with animals hybrid. They walk on 2 feet but have animals faces. It is ok I guess if you like this kind of stuff.
Ian zeholme on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 11:13 am
I like the War realm. I have kept good memories from it. It is not for everyone. But I kind of like it.
Yasmin Abdul on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 11:19 am
I don’ remember what happen in the war realm when you die or you are tortured. I sure did a lot of killing in this realm. The realm with absolutely no rules. No for everyone also. I did a lot of killing and torture in this realm.
Jaime Presley on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 11:28 am
I raped to death a lot of women in the realm of war. I have killed a lot of women in this realm. When you see these fucking whore beg for mercy, it fills you with joy. Fucking useless whore. Women are the reason why I cannot carry handguns on me. You should have seen what I have done to them in the realm of war.
I have killed a lot of feminized men like Trudeau in this realm. I have good memories of watching them dying. Feminized men are also the reason why I cannot carry an handgun on me. Real nice to kill losers like Trudeau, Legault, Dominic Leblanc. I recommend this realm if you feel that you have an hidden warrior spirit inside of you.
lole presely on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 11:32 am
Killing other people bare handed nothing beats that. Just brute force.
Jaim preslye on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 11:35 am
I really miss the fact that I am unable to kill women in this reality. I remember a lot of pleasure watching women die. Pleasure unknown to the loser of earth that have never did reality travel.
Jean lapresse on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 12:06 pm
I don’t think you can travel these realms in a real flesh body. The flesh body is a cage that stop you from doing reality based travel. I could be wrong also.
Jean latulipe on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 12:57 pm
I just went out to buy cigarettes. It is working. The trees are dying. Not all of them but a lot of them are dying. I guess we should keep doing what we are doing. I need money so I can buy a better vehicle so I can leave my neighborhood.
They are reality travelers, traveling from others realities into earth reality. They can do things we cannot do because they don’t have a real flesh. We are getting shafted here on earth and we are slaves to them. As long as we are in a flesh body we are stuck here. Killing all the fertiles women is still a good idea from my point of views. No new born babies, means the end of earth reality.
Valerie Plante on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:00 pm
You kill a pregnant women, pull the baby out of her womb, and show them the dead baby. They will get the message. There is probably multiple realities out there that we cannot access because we are stucked in a flesh body. We to declare war to them and kill fertile women, like Marc Lépine did.
marinte heline on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:05 pm
Porn videos are telling us what kind of realities there is out and what can be achieved once you leave your flesh body. We declare war to them by killing fertile women.
forbe news on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:15 pm
There is no way people were fighting dressed in these kind of garments. They are too heavy, keep body humidity trap inside the garment and eventual drain your body heat. The garment weight drain your physical forces really fast and make you an ineffective warrior. Take a sewing machine and make your own tactical vest. You will see what I mean. Even the simplest tactical vest is uncomfortable when wear for a long period of time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd2X6rVU2VU
Ulyse laporte on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:17 pm
Take a sewing machine and try to make one of these garment in red. You will see how much work it is. You would never dress soldier with this kind of garbage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd2X6rVU2VU
jaime preslyes on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:22 pm
I still believe that the best way to carry an handgun is in a chest harness. I cannot test my theory because I live in Canada.
Jaime ulysee on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:32 pm
I don’t see the point of wearing any kind of hats during combat. Hats always fall down or they fall down on your nose and obstruct your vison. There is no way people were fighting each other dressed like that.
Take a sewing machine and try make once of these garment. Come back to me after you try. You will give up in my middle of the construction of the garment. I know because I make my own clothing. On top of that, there are perfectly well adjusted garments. try it at home and come back to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkkbIy8iiX4
Jean renauld on Mon, 3rd Feb 2025 1:39 pm
The button on the vest is made of brass. They did not have oil back in the days, it could have been made with plastic. The button had to make of brass. Meaning it is a button made using hot brass foundry casting. Do you know how much work it is to make hot brass foundry casting button.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkkbIy8iiX4