It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Joe machine on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 2:02 pm
Carry on, you will always remember
Carry on, none can equal the splendor
Now your life’s no longer empty
Surely heaven waits for you
Now your life’s is no longer empty. Meaning planet earth was created to entertain me and as a teaching experience. It means I am the only one that matter, all the rest of you are expendable.
karine trudeau on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 2:13 pm
Carry on, none can equal the splendor = none can equal your creativity, intelligence, logical skill and general personality. You are unique there is none equal to you on this earth.
yealie nardine on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 2:24 pm
Once I rose above the noise and confusion
Just to get a glimpse beyond this illusion
I was soaring ever higher
But I flew too high
Just to get a glimpse beyond this illusion = I can see you are not real humans. I can see your long necks. I can see the holographic projection around light source during the night. I see the illusion.
ulusee yellow on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 2:39 pm
As I said, I am not here to help save earth. I am not here to be your friends. I am here to be entertain by your stupidity before I leave earth using a dimensional conduit. You should not have confiscated my weapons from me, I have nothing left to attach myself emotionally toward canada or the planet earth. As earth as a toy to use for my personal pleasure because I have no emotional attachement toward it. Fuck you are stupid.
Joe lafarve on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:11 pm
The reason you kill a woman during rape is to send a message to Satan. It is a way to tell him that we, men, know that women are using sex to manipulate men. This is why you kill women during rape. You leave her body there naked so everyone can see that we know that women are used by Satan to manipulate men. This is how we used to do it. Really rewarding. You have done it once, you get hook on this.
Ctv news on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:17 pm
I told you that I am space and time traveler as mentioned in the song Kashmir.
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president Alice MUZZ-19 herself with reckless abandonment but only using retractable needles and saline solution on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:22 pm
MUZZ-19 is the cause of “Pfizer smile”
heline latuplie on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:25 pm
There were a rebellion against Satan by men living on earth, where we knew that women were the creation of the devil. Some were kill using a stick push through their vagina until the scream in pain and die.
Satan rebel against GOD, but what people don’t know is that some men on earth rebel against Satan by killing women We were almost successful as killing all women of earth.
Tony chu on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:29 pm
Now you understand why they created feminism ? Now you understand why the created rape laws and guns laws? Why the UN is talking about violence against women ?
UN Women Executive Director on Ending Violence against Women and Girls for 25 November 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfyfBiqdvak
loil despraint on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 10:22 pm
Remember Madona Like a virgin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUZhMNa4ABg
or Samantha fox Touch me ( I want your body)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1btg3mpEOc
This is clear indication to me that sexual reproduction does not deliver the results they were expecting. Men now understand that women are the seeds of the devil and are avoiding women. We have tried to kill all women on earth as a form of rebellion against Satan. Things we did to women while killing them is unimaginable to people of earth.
ialn latrain on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 10:24 pm
Women are not untouchable contrary to what the WEF, UN and feminist movement is saying. Women are fair game in a fight against Satan little darling. This is what the ancients understood and has been forgotten.
jaime preslews on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 10:58 pm
From my point of view, killing women is probably the most pleasuring thing I ever did. You really feel that you are fighting Satan when you kill a women. You make sure that after you kill a woman that you leave her body in a public place so everyone can see, especially Satan. You want Satan and his followers to witness the whole thing. Really important to leave women dead body in a place where everyone can see it.
Aline alepte on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 12:22 am
Marc Lépine was a time traveller. It was a warning that we were sending to them that if this shit does not stop, crusade against women will restart.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuerie_de_l%27%C3%89cole_polytechnique_de_Montr%C3%A9al
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_L%C3%A9pine
Marc Lépine try to joint the Canadian army. Is was a warning that we were sending to them, that we will use the mary to start another crusade against women, if the don’t stop.
Regie yylloe on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 12:24 am
Marc Lépine try to joint the Canadian army. Is was a warning that we were sending to them, that we will use the army to start another crusade against women, if they don’t stop with their BS of feminism.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_L%C3%A9pine
yelloe martine on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 12:34 am
One in three women worldwide have suffered either physical and or sexual violence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBx7DHTCyRk
Marc Lépine was a warning that we were sending to them. Apparent the threat that we sent to them and it has not been heard or acknowledge by them. Crusade against women will restart.
yelloe ediand on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 12:42 am
Marc Lépine was a warning. The crusade against women are about to start. Mass killing of women will happen. How do you explain this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsVVZPQ540
Heline amcile on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 1:17 am
Marc Lépine was a warning, You were supposed to abolish all the firearms laws and dismantle feminism. You did the opposite. A crusade against women will be restarted. Never confiscate the firearms on a man. You never know what you will unleash upon yourself. I cannot believe how fucking stupid you are. It was a fucking warning and you refuse to obey us.
naimde charron on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 1:24 am
GOD or the invisible world, will provide the soldiers to run a crusade against women. GOD will build an army of men just for that. You should have abolished the firearms laws and dismantle feminism. You are going to get fucking hard.
Rachel maddoe on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 1:50 am
They are still trying to pretend that democracy works and it is a good system. They don’t dare to say, the truth. Is that some people in high positions of power or the deep state are destroying the USA from the inside and probably setting the ground for an internal civil war. You will never hear that in the media. They really have an agenda.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKDay2ZT0cc
alaine maquiese on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 5:55 am
They are panicking sexual reproduction is not giving them the result expected. Their human slavery system, is not working well for them and has lead to a decrease in birth rate. See South Korea. Their flesh body is a low quality creation and people are not willing to reproduce because there is too pain associated with the flesh body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G333Is7VPOg&list=RDGMEMQ1dJ7wXfLlqCjwV0xfSNbA&index=12
Papa don’t preach
I’m in trouble deep
Papa don’t preach
I’ve been losing sleep
But I made up my mind
I’m keeping my baby, hmm
I’m gonna keep my baby, hmm
He says that he’s going to marry me
We can raise a little family
Maybe we’ll be all right
It’s a sacrifice
Jean laporet on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 6:02 am
There is too much physical pain associated with the flesh. It is a low quality creation. It lacks physical strength, lack physical endurance, it is fragile, it has no longer term memory, no capability to do advanced mathematic mentally, it needs a lot of maintenance (shower, hair, teeth, eating). People have decided to not reproduce because it is a low quality vehicle. Only them think it is a perfect creation. Intelligent men like me see though the lies and see the flesh body as low quality creation. Earth reality will die one way or the other.
Farine bank on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 6:18 am
Once you travel through time and you are being dumped into a high quality vehicle you lose all respect for earth and the flesh body. Earth flesh body does not deserve any respect and admiration. All the earth flesh body deserver is deep hatred. Why do you think they have a song called Heavy is a place on earth. It is to convince people that the earth flesh body and earth is a creation a great quality when it is not the case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOGEyBeoBGM
Jean tong on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 6:28 am
There is reason why in the past we had multiple crusade against women. Because the human flesh body is a low quality creation. By killing all the women you stop this creation called the human flesh body for ever. Some men rebelled against Satan and his flesh body creation by trying to kill all the women on earth. They will never tell you that.
Renalye dulude on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 6:41 am
This is them trying to convince you that earth is a beautiful creation and the flesh body is the best creation ever made. it is not true.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iK_qzk6sJS4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl_kXbhTi8k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68Zn_IFp47I
Aline lafrorest on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 6:44 am
The ancients understood that earth and the flesh body are shit creations that deserve to die. How you that. You kill all the women living on earth.
joe letaxi on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 6:50 am
Look at them trying to sell us the idea that earth is beautiful and we should be proud to be human living on such a beautiful planet. Earth is ugly and a big ball made of shit and piss. The flesh body is an extremely low quality vehicle that deserve to die permanently.
This is their BS propaganda they have been pushing on us for almost ever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ES7z-lMDNo
aaloinmother on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 7:09 am
Look at them trying to convince us that earth and the flesh body are perfect creation. Earth and the flesh body are low quality creation that deserve to die. I say, we restart the crusade against women and will exterminate all of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmVLcj-XKnM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XALBGkjkUPQ
https://www.conservation.org/home
Tremek tong on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 7:12 am
Once you have been dumped inside an high quality vehicle, you cannot never love earth and the flesh body.
club ofrome on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 7:25 am
Here we go again. The club of Rome is involved in it. See below.
https://www.conservation.org/video/imagine-for-a-minute
A Gripping Films production. This film has been made possible by support from the Planetary Emergency Partnership, WWF, Avaaz, Conservation International, FOLU, Global Commons Alliance, The Club of Rome, Nature4Climate, The Nature Conservancy, Climate & Sustainability, and Gower St. Additional individual donation from Noëlle
Jeanice Bertrand on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 7:28 am
These fucking cock sucer from the club of rome. We should mercenaries where they live and kill them.
https://www.youtube.com/@ClubofRome/videos
helien chienne on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 7:52 am
One another way to get back at them is to terminate the animal kingdom by killing all the female inside the animal kingdom. You kill all the female dogs, all the female cats and so on. Sadly we don’t have the manpower to terminate the animal kingdom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLslsZuEaNE
This video was the inspiration for the paragraph above.
Yellone marice on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 8:52 am
If I remember correctly the Holocaust, China communist revolution and Russia Bolshevik revolution and many more, were done be us as a form of rébellion against Satan and its flesh body.
This is where they came up with hate speech BS. We did a lof of campaign and crusade against them. In Russian we sabotage the nation from the inside. They have never forgotten this one. They pretend to pay us we pretend to pay.
A lot of earth massacre that took place were actually a rebellion against them and their flesh body or creation. this is how I remember it. They lie about everything, they most like lie about these event also. This is when they came up with the idea of peace around the world and International criminal court.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzBWG_oo0mg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtegUGSK1bg
Crusade against women will restart. Marc Lépine was a warning but you did not acknowledge it. Nobody takes the weapons of a warrior like me that have travel time before and expect to see him to submit to a matriarchal civilisation run by women. nobody has every taken my weapon from me in the past, and it will never happen after I kill al of you.
denis trudel the time warrior on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 8:59 am
If I have to kill all the population of earth to teach you a lesson about firearms ownership, I will do. If killing all the population of earth guarantee me that nobody will ever take my weapons from me I will do it. You never take away the weapon of a warrior, you never know what you will unleash upon yourself, your family and kids.
quran alime on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 9:10 am
There has been in the past episode of violence that were unleash by men like me that you cannot imagine. It is beyond what people can comprehend and imagine. Why do you think they came up with this peace propaganda. Crusade against women and kids that you just cannot imagine. Now I have explain to you the past, you can understand the present we live into.
Carl Tremblay the time warrior on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 9:53 am
South Korea low birth rate could be seen as a rebellion against Satan creation, the flesh body. It is over for earth. No amount of propaganda from the UN will keep earth slavery camp alive.
Ulysee trump on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 10:00 am
Samathan Fox Touch me now song was release in 1986. They have been trying to push birth rate since 1980 without any success. Already in 1980 they knew that the birth rate was too low and their creation the flesh body would not survive eternally. This is why they are panicking, they will lose their creation, the flesh body. I say it is a good thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1btg3mpEOc
Papa don’t preach was release in 1986. They were already panicking back them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G333Is7VPOg
Elaine Termite on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 10:06 am
I remember this era with Samantha Fox and Madonna. It felt weird and unnatural to me. It felt that something was off on every aspects you can think off. It felt like someone had a agenda and they were running out of time to complete their agenda.
oil daake on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 10:20 am
It was a strange era. Personal computer came out of nowhere and became popular immediately. Porn on TV started as soon as cable TV was being made available to people. The speed at which personal computer technology evolve was seem to as something unnatural and rushed. It felt like earth has entered into a accelerated time vortex.
It felt like someone had a agenda and they were running out of time to complete their agenda.
Jean building on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 11:10 am
No I don’t an explanation why these buildings look pretty and sophisticated compare to the rest of Canada buildings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7TFOeTw_fE
Jean tulipe on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 11:14 am
Actually I have an explanation. These look like the kind of buildings a King would live in. It looks like a King personal estate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7TFOeTw_fE
Yellin welling on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 11:26 am
The building on the right is where the King staff that administer the nation works. The build with the tall tower is where the King live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7TFOeTw_fE
Ulsu weling on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 11:32 am
The building on the left is where the personal guard live and maybe some of his personal army soldier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7TFOeTw_fE
yellow auran on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 11:41 am
It is missing a building. A building where the miliary equipment is stored and maintain. You are missing a couple of buildings. You are also missing the personal shooting range for the King and his personal guards.
Carl Peladeau on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 11:55 am
The building on the left is where the staff that serve the King live: personal guard, butler, maintenance, cook, gardeners. The personal army staff live outside of the King estate same at the personal administrating the nation.
You missing a big portion where the military equipment is located.
Ulue denis on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 12:21 pm
Only light military equipment are stored on the King estate: small helicopters and small vehicle. The rest of the equipment is located outside the kind Estate. The miliary command center is located on the King Estate. This is how I remember it. It is probably not accurate.
Tremel jean on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 12:29 pm
If I remember correctly King in the past had really big personal Estate. Nobody want to be King. You will never find anybody to assume the role of King. It is too much work. It is better to prepare to die.
Yelloe tremblay on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 1:10 pm
I think the governance using a King died because nobody with an high IQ would want the job. It just die and people move to democracy. This is probably not accurate. Nobody want this job, it is a crappy jobs.
iliane perform on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 2:05 pm
I think there were two main events that took place and almost ended the human race for good. There were crusades against women as a form rebellion followed by a big flood. Some how they were able to repopulate the earth but it has weaken the quality of the humans population as the best humans were killed and they were left with lower quality people.
yellone denis on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 8:40 pm
Nobody is coming to save earth population. Chosen ones will be removed out of earth and the population of earth will be killed. Nobody confiscate the weapons of a warrior and live. This mean everyone on earth has to die for this insult toward me.
civ news on Fri, 31st Jan 2025 8:47 pm
Confiscating my weapons using restrictive firearms laws is seen as a declaration of war against me coming from the whole planet earth. As a warrior I have to kill all of you if I want to win this battle. This is how I see it.