It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
lolo lapoute on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:15 am
Killing all the women meant the end of the human race or the ends of earth reality. We almost pull if off. Go look at black and white pictures with empty street. There is nothing beautiful inside a women, there is only stupidity. She is the creation of the devil. Men are the creation of GOD.
forbes brakingnews on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:22 am
Look at this fucking guy.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OPsDbFarauY
Yelloe regis on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:43 am
I told you that only the chosen ones will live. Just wait, you will see that I am right again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bex5LyzbbBE
GET that girl out of that house she simply have to get out so I opened the door can't get in that way my body can't get through the door only your hand so we kicked the bottom and she came out she said there some girls in there call 911 and he on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:48 am
WHY elite whitey (((supertard))) president Alice MUZZ-19 herself with retraction needles and saline solution
jeanue decrime on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:15 am
Women are pretty easy to kill because they are so stupid that they cannot survive on their own. One easy way to kill women inside a city is to leave them behind on their own without any help and support. They die within a month.
It is really easy to kill a large quantity of women. Really easy
grahe termvle on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:20 am
Close all women shelters, stop giving them money. You will the street fill up with the dead cadavers of women. It is something to see in real life. Real easy to kill women in extremely large quantity.
Jeuse christ on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:25 am
Another people that are easy to kill are the feminized men that we see all over Europe. They also cannot survive on their own. You just leave these men behind and they will die rapidity. It is really easy to kill women, gay men and feminized men and extremely large quantity with minimale effort. How do we think we were able to kill such a large amount of people.
Yvan gros on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:33 am
we almost pull it off, killing everyone on earth. Why do you think I know so much about them and how they think. Because I was part of a them that we dedicated at the extermination of the human race. Hitler is a fucking amateur compare to what we were able to achieve.
Yahoo laporet on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:47 am
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates As Expected, Ends QT, Restarts QE, And Drops Guidance On Looming Trade War
This is the end of Canada and the death of 40 millions people in one shot. As a Technic of mass genocide, it is pretty good. Expect to see cadaver everywhere in Canada in 5 year from now. The system will never be rebuilt as the West is dead.
Tiff maken on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:50 am
You see his body language. It is the body language of a loser.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWsxwo9bo6o
Inside the hierarchy of masculine men, this man would be killed as he is seen as a weak of no value. He has no real value. He is about to find out that he is a loser.
killing weakmean on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:56 am
These are the weak men that I was talking about that are easy to kill. See the video below. You can kill these kind of weak men by the millions by just destroying the infrastructure and abandoning them with women and children. You can kill these kind of men by the millions, it is something to see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWsxwo9bo6o
heline dancereau on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 10:06 am
Why do you think I know so much about them. Because I was part of a team that kill millions and millions of weak men, women and children. It is something to see that many cadavers in one locations.
ulyse regis on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 10:30 am
Look at his fuckin face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98tWAHAv2BI
i knew some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed giveaway my neighbor got big testicles cuz we see this d00d everyday we ate RIBBBBS with dis d00d on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 3:44 pm
AND we didnt have a clue get that girl out of that house she simply have to get out
Jeanvie laporte on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 5:57 pm
Lowering the interest rate like Canada did when the natural ressource are all depleted is the equivalent of committing mass genocide on the population of Canada. He is basically committing himself at killing all the population of Canada. I am not hungry anymore. I guess I must be ready for dimensional travel
aline lapoete on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 6:00 pm
You stupid people don’t understand what the Banque of Canada did to your nation. You are too stupid to see it.
jesue selene on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 6:28 pm
If you live in Canada, you should start to look at suicide as an acceptable way to exit this world. There is slow suicide and brutal suicide.
ywllo cpace on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 6:44 pm
I will tell you how it will work. Men with an high IQ will suicide themself first because they understand that natural ressource depletion will kill everyone eventually. You will be left with only a population of stupid people and violent people. You already cannot find enough high IQ people to fix moderne car. It will get worst and nation will start die. You are about to experience that full hands in Canada.
yelloe lapate on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 7:24 pm
I don’t know who is running planet earth, but I can tell just bu looking at how you manipulate Trump puppet that all of you are just a low IQ losers. You are just a fucking loser and you have already lost planet earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7x-QtDAjxc
Yelline willing on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 7:36 pm
I don’t know who is manipulating Trump puppet and who started COVID. But, just by looking at the news headline on Youtube, I know you are just a pathetic losers not worthy of life. Everything about this operation make me think that you are highly mentally unstable and really stupid. See this fucking headline. This is the smell of desperation. You really thought that you would take my guns away from me and I would work with in the futur. GOD you are just a fucking loser.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7x-QtDAjxc
helieyel sedleove on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 7:51 pm
You are just a pathetic loser who ever control the Trump puppet. This video below is the smell of desperation of someone that is unable to stop the flow of immigrants coming into earth and is running out of ideas about how to stop the flow of immigrants. I hope you fucking die for taking away my guns from me. You sound like someone mentally unstable and mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7x-QtDAjxc
ellaine latroupe on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:13 pm
If I can smell your desperation by looking at the title of this video. The immigrant invaders can smell it to. If by looking at this video I can see that you don’t know how to stop the earth invasion, the invaders can see it also. The invaders know that you are toothless and just a fucking pathetic loser. I know it, they know it also.
You are just a fucking loser who control the Trump puppet. Big mistake to take my firearms away from me using your stupid laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7x-QtDAjxc
yelldi makie on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:34 pm
If you want to be taken seriously you will need to do real actions. Like taking a nuclear submarine and send missiles into Israel water treatment plant and electrical generation plant. Then they will take you your seriously. All you are good for is talking like they said in beginning of Mad Max 2 movie. You are only good at talking and you are hoping that someone will come to save your ass and do the dirty work for you. 1:05 their leader talked, talked and talked. That is all you are good for talking and not real actions. You are just fucking low IQ coward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw
Regit levella on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:41 pm
Earth invasion will continue and will never stop. Because the invaders know what I also know. You are only good at talking. The invaders know what I know, you are only coward that are afraid of taking real action such as bombing Israel infrastructures. I know you are all losers and they know it. We are know that you are losers.1:05 their leader talked, talked and talked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw
Alain depuid on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 8:55 pm
You are waiting for a savior and none will come exactly like in the movie Mad Max 2. You will talk, and talk and talk and hoping for a savior but none will come. Earth invasion will continue because we all know that earth is populated with only coward losers.1:05 their leader talked, talked and talked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw
ferdina marcus on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:15 pm
The Mad Max 2 movie opening sequence is telling exactly what will happen to earth. No savior will come to save earth. You are on your own exactly like the movie said.
There is a hierarchy among masculine men. We have a set of rules that only the real masculine men know. In our world, you wear a suit you are a loser. You are a politician you are loser. You are banker you are losers. There is a set of rule only known by real masculine men.
Jaimei preslye on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:37 pm
There is a set of rules among masculine men. Women are not welcomed because they are seen are losers. Killing of women is seen as fine and is welcomed. If you need sex from a women., we just rape them and abandon them or kill them after we use them. A lot of you are not ready for what is coming ahead. You must love weapon and power of death that is coming with them. Killing of people is most rewarding thing in the world. It is an hi den world with a set of rules.
Jesue prince on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 9:49 pm
If we need to build a tribe it will be done by enslaving 12 and 13 year teen girl and use them as baby machine during tribe orgy event. Most of you are not read for what is coming ahead.
Otherwise it will a tribe a made of only men. Women of any age are not welcomed other then for procreation purposes. As soon as they are not needed they will be killed.
ilinae denis on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 10:03 pm
2:08 you see them killing a women a baby. Women are losers and we don’t carry dead weight with us. We will rape women if we need sex or enslave teen girl for procreation.
It always been that way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ecXy3S9Dw
They are hidden rules only known by certain men.
Yelli regist on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 10:08 pm
You know the expression, it is a man world. It tells you everything that you need to know about how we view women.
Nobody confiscate my weapons from me, especially not a matriarchal civilisation run by women. Fucking useless worthless whore of no real value.
ctv news on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 11:04 pm
You are just fucking low IQ losers. I can see just by looking at it that you are not able to stop the flux of immigrants coming in. If I can see it , the immigrants can also see it. This is what loser and desperate people without courage would do. If I can see it, they can too. You are just low IQ worthless piece of shit. Exactly like women are, fucking worthless losers. Making the neck of people longer is one thing, stopping the flow of immigrant is something else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA-pNlKoR90
Danile marceau on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 11:09 pm
I never let a woman take my weapons from me in the past. I will certainly not let a matriarchal civilization run by women for the benefit of women take my weapons form using the BS justice system.
Alain erasme on Wed, 29th Jan 2025 11:58 pm
Ask the same question with Thailand and Brazil instead of the US. I told you that men will leave women behind when the times comes. You can genocide millions of women and weak men without the need of an army or sophisticated weaponry. You destroy the infrastructures and you leave.
Women and feminized men are pathetic losers that are not intelligent enough to survive on their own. They are the definition of a parasite. They cannot fix anything, cannot do plumbing, welding, car repairs. Easiest people to kill by the millions. You destroy the infrastructures because you know they are not capable of fixing it or patching it. It has been done before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7LxZsKKN18
I know a lot about them because I have killed millions of them before.
Iline reginal on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 12:34 am
I am not working for fucking free and nobody takes my weapon from me. Come to my house and dare to ask me for help and see what kind of answer you will get. I might give you the impression that I am your friend and I am will to work with you because I am writing comments. Come to my house and dare to ask me for help and see what you will get from me.
alain forbe on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 4:59 am
Running out of oil but they don’t dare to tell the truth. We could ration oil by stopping airplane travel but we don’t want to do it openly. How could we ration oil without telling the truth to the people. I know how we will stop air travelling. We don’t want people to know that we are just liars and we have mismanaged everything on earth, so we have to lie if we want to keep earth slavery system alive and working well.
We will come up with a fake story where a Black Hawk Helicopter hit a airplane. This should scare some people away from airplane travel and hopefully this is work as way to ration oil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQKihu3NVu4
They will never tell you the truth about anything.
alain leduc on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 5:17 am
The Jews have been expelled 100 times from various lands. It is time to exterminate them. I think it is pretty obvious that the Jews are a problem. I say, send nuclear submarines to bomb Israel.
alain deprus on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 6:35 am
This is the whole scene where they kill the mother and her kids. I told you women are the seed of the devil and there have been many crusade to kill women. If you kill all the women, you end the human race and free the human from this meat cage. If there is no reproduction their can be no reincarnation into a flesh body. I have kill million of women before I would do it again if I could. They don’t kill the elderly women with a gun because she is not fertile.
There is nothing beautiful inside of women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmrgWhcJRxo
alaine delon on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 6:50 am
Satan creation is basically the human flesh body. If you kill all the women, Satan creation will die because there will be no women to continue his creation or give birth.
Killing women is easy if you are a big guy. You can kill them bare handed with ease.
yellinewine on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 6:57 am
I shown to you all the efforts that they are making to increase the birth rate. Beach volleyball, gymnastic and so many more. Their creation is the flesh body. How do you ruin their creation that is the flesh body. You kill all the women on earth. Tell me where is the flaw in my logic.
relaite death on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 7:05 am
They are building these smart cities to save their flesh creation. not the human race, the flesh création they are using to enslave us. Building the smart cities is about saving their flesh creation, it is not about saving the human race. How do you get back at them, you kill all the women. How do we liberate ourself from the flesh body, you kill all the women. That could be one explanation why there is picture black and white with empty street. Some people try to kill all the women in the world and it almost worked. All of us would not be here suffering if we had been successful at killing all the women in the world. The ancient understood that women are the creation of the devil.
rashit abdul on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 7:10 am
Remember it is an inverted world. According to feminism, violence against women is the worst that can happen to planet earth.
Inverse, this, you get: killing women is the best that can happen to us. Inverse everything.
Yeld band on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 7:18 am
Show me flaws in my reasoning. tell me where I am wrong.
Red light on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:02 am
This is what I see at night. Not exactly that but similar to that at 6:43. The rays of light are smaller. You have rays of light at the top, bottom, left and right. There is actual 3 rays of light at the bottom. I cannot describe accurately but red back lights on cars also have holographic projection. It is the same shape as the back light but lighter. One up and one down. You have to see to understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYo1urFWKnI
Jow lapore on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:15 am
You should see the stuff I see when I drive a night. Everything that is a light source has some kind of holographic projection attached to it. Some time there is two. The green arrow on the traffic light has 5 holographic projection when you are far away and merge into one when you get closer. It makes night driving a challenge when you are not used to it.
Heline on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:19 am
I told you I need money. I want to go to Montreal to see what kind of holographic projections I would see. My car is too old and I am not driving it to Montreal with it. It is up to you about the money. I don’t give a shit, I am a chosen one.
heline arie on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 9:49 am
I think I even have a ideal what dimensional travel looks like. The ground vanish under your feet, I usually get afraid and I grip something solid around me to make sure that everything around me is still there. This is one type of travel. There is another type of dimensional travel I think. I know much more about this world that people might think by
reading my comments,
aline joualv on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 1:02 pm
Just because
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaHN-QQ1bOU
aline depuite on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 1:36 pm
Masquerading as a man with a reason
My charade is the event of the season
And if I claim to be a wise man, well
It surely means that I don’t know
Who is masquerading as a man with a reason:
-Justin Trudeau
-Trump
-Larry Fink of Black Rock
-António Guterres of UN
-Klaus Schawb
-Emanual Macron
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NIXJazmdU8
heline trudeau on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 1:47 pm
My charade is the event of the season = the public apparences I am doing on TV is just a fake show to manipulate people.
Heline Joel on Thu, 30th Jan 2025 1:52 pm
Surely heaven waits for you
When your new flesh body is ready you will leave earth using a dimensional conduit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NIXJazmdU8