It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle jean on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 11:08 pm
Then people will be forced to live inside big cities. It will depressing and soul killing. Grey concrete everywhere with barely any vegetation. Go look at video of the REM in Montreal, and check how ugly the train station are. They are so ugly and depressing that they drain out your will of living. Birth rate will crash to nothing and life expectance will decrease also. Just watch them fail again. After everyone is dead, they will reset (add new things) and repopulate (with maybe improved humans)
Ilina Mrton on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 11:17 pm
1:46 is the grey color I am talking. It is fucking soul killing to live among concrete. What the birth rate crash down and life expectance to increase rapidly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q2f_jkPTkc
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 11:38 pm
Watch them fail in a spectacular fashion. 20 stories down into the mountain. Only losers want to live in a cave for all their life. Intelligent people will usually chose suicide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGP62GLJqvQ
I have seen them fail before, and they will fail again.
Alan marcotte on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 11:47 pm
Feel and looks like the inside of a mental asylum. The fucking ugliness and soul killing of these are making you ask a lot of question.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z23j0sY5tl4
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 11:54 pm
The ugliness of Canada major cities makes you wonder if it is not done on purpose. Such an ugly nation what ever direction you look at. Québec and Canada decoration style could be called mental asylum color palette and style.
This nation has been built around the concept of crushing the soul of who ever was unlucky enough to be born here. The fucking ugliness of this place.
The fucking ugliness of this country, it is fucking unbelievable.
Alam lamarre on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 12:33 am
Look at the fucking doors for the Eaton center at 0:43. Look like a fucking mental asylum rooms separated by big doors. Can you put nicer doors that than.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y-wQYcHpe8
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 12:39 am
The fucking ugliness of this fucking nation (canada) , the fucking ugliness of it all.
Alain lavarde on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 1:05 am
You mean the principle of conservation of mass is causing you trouble. How will you beat conservation of mass without oil. Earth is so fucked it is actually funny. Running out of oil fucking cock sucker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUoedgM9xuk
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 1:37 am
Ostie de crisse de salopes Britanniques, Européennes, Juives. Ostie de crisse de plein marde mes tabernacles de putes sales puant du cul. Pourquoi pensez-vous que les Européennes vivent dans le Nord, c’est parce que le reste de planète les pousser dans le Nord parce qu’ils faisaient toute la planète entière. On pensait être capable de les exterminer les salopes main nous avons manquez notre coup. Ostie de salopes Européennes sale de calisse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuyjWn8L4vA
Lavrille lameche on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 1:38 am
c’est parce que le reste de planète les pousser dans le Nord parce qu’ils faisaient chier toute la planète entière.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 1:41 am
Ostie de crisse de salopes Britanniques, Européennes, Juives. Ostie de crisse de plein de marde mes tabernacles de putes sales puant du cul. Pourquoi pensez-vous que les Européennes vivent dans le Nord, c’est parce que le reste de la planète les a pousser dans le Nord parce qu’ils faisaient chier toute la planète entière. On pensait être capable de les exterminer les salopes mais nous avons manquez notre coup. Ostie de salopes Européennes sale de câlisse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuyjWn8L4vA
Alain Ruroa on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 1:49 am
C’est toujours les salopes Européennes que te foutent dans la marde. C’est toujours c’est ostie de tabernacles qui causent du trouble.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 1:59 am
I won’t happen, but my first target if I was to become a king are going to be GRC and Sureté du Québec for gladly supporting Canada firearms laws. I will kill all the staff inside the GRC headquarter first and then Sureté du Québec just because of Canada firearms laws. I will get rid of these fucking traitors first. Fucking pathetic losers looking a good pay check and a pension. Even my father used to hate the Sureté du Québec and he was a cuck submissive man, imagine ca tabernacle.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 2:19 am
Regarding the elevators, just enter into the building call all the elevators to the first floor, and destroy the floor push buttons panel inside the elevator or the elevator control box, this should put them into a standby mode as they lost communication with the main controllers. Install machine gun on the first floor and kill everyone that comes through these doors. This is how you kill all the staff inside GRC and Sureté du Québec headquarter. Come back 2 weeks, later, the smell of dead rotting cadavers will make you puke.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 2:37 am
C’est garantie que si tu travailles avec de la salope Blanche Européennes, c’esst garantie qu’a un moment donné il vont t’enculer ben solide. C’est mieux de ne pas travailler avec ce merdes la. Demander au russes, il en n’on long a dire la dessus. Crisse de mangeux de merde de calisse.
Isabelle jean on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 2:45 am
Another way to deal with the elevators, is to block the doors in opened position. You can probably do that with a block of aluminum and heavy self taping screw screwed directly in the bottom of the doors opening. Some many ways to do that.
So easy to kill people the way big cites are built.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 2:53 am
When they asked you why did you attack Israel. You answer Israel attacked us first when they attack the USS liberty. I am responding to a declaration of war made to us be Israel in 1967. Notice it happen in 1967 the year of my birth.
It is easy to do politics when you understand how to play with words.
The Day Israel Attacked America | Special Series
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tx72tAWVcoM
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 2:57 am
Then they ask you, why are you on earth, to genocide the Europeans, Britishs and Jewish people. I can down here on earth in 1967 to deal with Israel and Jewish people.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 20th Jan 2026 3:03 am
Remember this date 1967.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 21st Jan 2026 1:07 am
I The voice said to me:
Slowly preparing for my extraction out of earth.
Shutting down my eating cycle.
Erasing my past and disconnecting for it
Emotionally disconnecting from earth and my life on earth
Preparing for the mental stress associated with a change of environment and an unknown world.
preparing for dimensional floating and slippage a
Preparing for modifications of my 5 senses and adding new senses
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bofcCWADv48
The ones with badges that take your weapons away. Death to them.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 21st Jan 2026 1:10 am
Emotionally disconnecting from earth and my life on earth
The call has been issued and it has been agreed by all members of the council. Earth population will be exterminated. Therefore, Emotionally disconnecting from earth and my life on earth is the appropriate course of actions for me.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 21st Jan 2026 1:29 am
A procedure to preserve earth history is being put in place. Chosen ones that lived all their life on earth will be given eternal life, they will be what we call the memory guardians of earth past.
Scientific books will be saved or have already been saved. Here is an example of books being saved:
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.1201/9781003311218/essentials-mechanical-stress-analysis-amir-javidinejad
We are terminating earth and its population.
Alain gendron on Wed, 21st Jan 2026 4:15 pm
Something you would build after a flood or a catastrophic event that destroyed your civilisation and manufacturing. A low tech machine you would build because you lost the ability to build high tech machinery.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ZfRS5y5t8hg
Antoine on Tue, 27th Jan 2026 1:55 pm
A very interesting and well-argued analysis, particularly regarding the role of emerging economies and AI in future demand.
company on Mon, 2nd Feb 2026 8:41 pm
1. Forecast uncertainty is huge
Long-term predictions (10+ years) around energy are notoriously uncertain because they depend on a mix of technology, policy, economics, and social behavior. Consensus forecasts often shift significantly year to year as new data arrives.
2. Peak demand ≠ peak supply
It’s also worth distinguishing between a “peak demand” view (people use less oil because alternatives grow) vs. “peak supply” concerns (running out of cheap oil). The article focuses primarily on demand, but many energy analysts see supply dynamics — like field depletion and investment — as equally crucial.
Melon Playground on Wed, 4th Feb 2026 2:17 am
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Maxime on Wed, 4th Feb 2026 7:08 am
Thought-provoking article! It’s refreshing to see a critical look at the IEA’s predictions, supported by such strong arguments and data. The geopolitical limits to imports are a significant factor I hadn’t fully considered.