It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Ulaie marye on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 9:15 pm
These are small and can ride on the sidewalks. These give them exits routes using the sidewalks narrow bridges, cycle paths. If you have the staff, you can have them running 24 hours a day and killing people. The fucking carnage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zT9XRqJuJQ
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 9:27 pm
You put a driver in them and a navigator. The navigator is the one that has the radio and communicating with head quater. He tells the driver where to go and what is the mission. The driver just drive. Both the driver and navigation kill when they reach their target. Stop, do the killing and move on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zT9XRqJuJQ
You get the idea.
Alain marcotte on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 9:29 pm
You can put a 16 year old kids or a 45 old man in it. There is barely no training about how to operate these.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 9:39 pm
They disarmed the population of Canada with restrictives firearms law, what are they going to you against you and how are they going to fight back. I told you they were losers and they always failed. You must be really arrogant and sure of yourself to disarmed the population like they did and think that it will turn OK for you.
Why they disarmed the population is a mystery to me.
Isabelle jean on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 9:58 pm
I told you that I did war. I am arrogant and pretentious but never reached their level of arrogance and ego. Go look at black and white video and you will see them display their arrogance for all for see.
Denis trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 10:04 pm
They are so arrogant and pretentious that they never thought that others dimension will send dimensional time travelers to deal with them and terminate earth.
Alaon lamarre on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 10:16 pm
You terminate human sexual procreation and you terminate earth. You kill only women and you terminate earth.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 10:19 pm
They will write books about me in other dimensions. I am already eternal.
Jean Contant on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 10:24 pm
Some people are not impressed about earth snow removal equipement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1-vzTibcso
Alain marie on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 10:28 pm
Piece of shit garbage clamps. Piece of shit earth.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/hgHrR1P8QGU
Trrembal maria on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 11:31 pm
The negro cannot fake gayness. Negro cannot hide his masculinity and fake gayness. He simply cannot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEVA7dxuAok
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 11:41 pm
Whites and Jews are heavily genetically damage races and should be exterminated. I have no respect for Whites Europeans and Jews. Only hatred toward them.
Regis levausme on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 11:59 pm
Up to a certain point the negro is an achievement and way superior to the Whites.
Iabelle jean on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 2:10 am
They are mocking us with these videos. See at 5:20.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTtcPxSag50
Nathal lafleure on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 2:19 am
1:05 they are mocking us. Just the tone and words they are using make me think that they are mocking us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Bs1BhqPmi8
Alain marcooet on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 2:30 am
The goal is to build shittier and shittier cars so that people get fed up and move into cities and never wish to own a car again. Building the future by creation the past before. They don’t want people to own car, they will make sure that you remember how unreliable and expensive they were. They are going to make sure that they are difficult and expensive to fix.
Yellen aryine on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 2:36 am
They are telling us right there that cars are garbage. It is almost as if they were telling us, maybe you should not own a car.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7tzuZQ24TE
Denis Trudel on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 2:51 am
They gonna take a video like below and will show it to students in their smart cities. They will say something along these lines. Smart cities are a progressive solution to save the earth because manufacturing is too polluting and consume too much natural resources. We now have move to a new area where we all live together to protect earth and stop pollution from manufacturing. We moved away from a monetary system to a credit based system where the contribution of everyone is valued and everyone received the basics goods they need to be happy and fulfill.
They will say, human have finally move forward and are now working together instead of being selfish like the old days when everyone was owning car. You see where I am going with that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLKUY9wccKY
Denis Trudel on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 2:59 am
You see at 9:30 the 2 cars. They will say, look how selfish these people were with all the models of car available, They were thinking only about themself and nobody else. We have now move forward and are now working together instead of being selfish like the old days when everyone was owning car. You see where I am going with that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLKUY9wccKY
Before building the future you have to build a historical past to explain why the future is what it is. This is what they are doing now. Kill all fertile women and terminate their earth project.
Isabelle jean on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 3:00 am
The only way to stop them is to terminate the human race by killing all the fertile females.
Yellen Jeanette on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 3:19 am
If some of you have the bad luck to live a too long life, you will see them failed in spectacular fashion.
Yellen Maria on Sat, 17th Jan 2026 3:35 am
You should see how ugly the REM train stations are. I expect them to fail in a spectacular fashion.
THANK you elite UPPERtard president supreme Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 9:40 am
I’m just a tard and fmr-paultard and a lover of supremacist muzzies
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 2:17 pm
Extermination of earth population is going as planned see price of silver. Need more information about the chosen men that will roam earth alone inside a protection bubble.
ALain lamafie on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 3:32 pm
Câlisse que la femme blanche est laide. Une christ de laideron avec un face d’homme mais sans l’appétit sexual d’un homme. Au moins les Asiatic de vingt ans on le corps et la face d’une jeune de 12 ans. Au moins les tabernacles sont fourrables.
Isabelle Chow on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 3:46 pm
On devrait faire des experiences de procreation sur la terre. On devrait forcer le male negro a se reproduire avec le female Asiatic. On aurait la masculinité et l’intelligence adaptative primale du Negro male combinée a la beauty et fragilité de la jeune female Asiatic. C’est assez évident qu’il devrait être illégale pour les blancs de se reproduire.
Ca devrait donner quelque chose de bien balancé.
Isabelle Cow on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 4:03 pm
C’est assez évident que la race blanche devrait être éliminé. Chaque nouveau née de couleur blanche devrait être tuer immédiatement a la naissance avec la mère.
ALain Lamarre on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 4:05 pm
I just have hatred toward the White race, I have nothing else to offer them.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 4:19 pm
I think I never authorized the creation of sexual procreation of earth. The creation of a female was not authorized as far as I remembered. It was supposed a male world only.
Heline maquette on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 4:36 pm
None of the matter, the total extermination of the human race will move forward. Nothing can stop that.
THANK you elite UPPERtard president supreme Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and yours on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 4:48 pm
IM just a simple lover of supremacist muzzies
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 5:05 pm
I am not going to tolerate that shit indefinitely.
Alain Lamarre on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 5:16 pm
Complete chaos. Unable to find the target and oriente himself from above. Without GPS it is difficult to survey the land and do war. Radio waves communication are a shit way to communicate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u19f7_jdyBw
Alain lamarre on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 5:23 pm
2:34 they were old men, women, children and no young men.
It is not the first time we tried to terminate the human race and earth reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tixOyiR8B-8
Isabelle Marrone on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 5:48 pm
Especially the 11 year old girl. Are you afraid of dying, no I don’t care. He does not care because he is going back home.
They always freak out when they realized you are welcoming death. This is why they stopped these interviews and death penalty. It was making death acceptable as an exit out of earth and distorted their propaganda that every life is precious and everyone wants to live on earth because earth is beautiful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWJg6nVGDSk
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 5:59 pm
He did the killing with other people. He was warning them that we would kill the whole human race if they don’t terminate the human race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvkNrBcXesk
Alain Marcotte on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 6:21 pm
Montreal Polytechnic massacre was a warning for them. It was a way to tell them will terminate the human race by killing fertile women if you refuse to terminate the human race yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spsAJ76rP3I
It was a warning to them from us.
Isabelle Laforge on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 6:32 pm
They are easier to kill once you realize they are just an image and not real. You kill everyone with a long neck because you know they are just images.
Alain lamarre on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 6:47 pm
They are just losers. We are going to ass fuck them again and force them reboot and restart again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKy7ljRr0AA
Money to program kids. I explained with Passa partout and the grocery store.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 7:32 pm
Remember flipper and the coral at the beginning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6PqrTZsho0
We as humans have to move into smart cities to protect the earth, the ocean, the forest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDWcF6myAZ0
I had completely forgotten about Flipper.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 8:06 pm
He is mocking the animal kingdom. He is mocking the creator that created earth animal kingdom. the same way they are mocking us with their old Whites and Black videos. It took me a while to understand that he was mocking earth animal kingdom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otefN9ePZRE
Lydian mondial on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 8:16 pm
They tell you the forest is beautiful and it is worth protecting. You buy a back pack and go walk in the forest in summer. Depressing as fuck, you get bitten by mosquitos, the ground is muddy and the mud stick to your boots, it is humid and you sweat.
After having it done a couple times, I was never be able to see the beauty in the forest that they see. It is a total fraud as everything on earth. I think the forest is a pathetic shit whole not worth saving. Same thing with mountain biking that is another fraud.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otefN9ePZRE
Alain Graham on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 8:25 pm
He is mocking them the same way they are mocking us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRk5Z2fiQy4
Alain lamaare on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 8:51 pm
Go look at the human biology programs taught at universities. Go look at the courses description. They mainly talk about the cells as the building blocks for the organs. It looks really shallow and empty when you look at the courses in the program.
They make it difficult to find a list of courses with description for the human biology program. You can see they try to hide the truth.
https://www.mcgill.ca/anatomy/files/anatomy/acb_programs_updated_2023.pdf
Isbelle Jean on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 9:44 pm
Two posts lifts. I wonder sometimes if they are real. For this to work the center of gravity of the car has to right in front of posts. The posts are hold to ground by bolts at the bottom. The friction between the bolts and concrete is what creating the clamping force holding the bottom of the posts against the ground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmCqMhRyl3w
Just a fucking simulation.
lamade tanne on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 9:57 pm
I fuck told you that they ruining cars on purpose to push people in the big cities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35UH5feM8X8
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 10:11 pm
Then they come to men like me to save their civilisation on their behalf. Then they think they can negotiate with you the authority and power structure where they will still be able to control you someone how and keep their money.
This is where you demand that everything on the land be transferred under your personal name: central bank, currency, mutual funds, banks, big corporation like Ford, GM, Microsoft. Then it makes you the richest man ever seen on earth. You know the rest.
Alain laforme on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 10:34 pm
Sometime they cannot find a savior. They kind of vanish and slowly hide themself away. It will continue to run until something collapse the supply chain and starts revolution.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CydD2dxSdQw
Denis Trudel on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 10:50 pm
Then depending if they read my comments on not, instead of risking a war, they will shutdown the reality and kill NPC person. This is will impact the supply chain and make it more difficult if you are a King to build an army. Check around if you have a car. You should be able to see it if they are shutting down the reality to avoid a war and save their infrastructures against destruction during war time.
They might even shutdown the supply chain themself and kill the population of earth and repopulate. If you have a car and drive around, you should be able to see if they are shutting down earth reality.
Alaon lajeunesse on Mon, 19th Jan 2026 10:56 pm
check the number of death vs the number of birth. If the number of death is accelerating month over month, they might be shutting it down, meaning they are killing their own NPC.