It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:04 pm
They downloaded a combat move in my head, how to break the shoulder of someone. It is right there in my head, I can see it.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:38 pm
I was also trained at using my fists. I put a sheet of plywood against the wall and I hit it with fist ats full speed. Surprisingly it is not that painful, I was expecting much more pain. I know I can hit someone with my fist with full force and I will not injure myself.
You know combat stuff,
Farnick Karmale on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:51 pm
There is a way to hit something with your fist so you don’t dislocate your wrist. You have to clench your fist really hard and align the fist with the forearm bone. You want a straight line when you hit to not dislocate your wrist. It came naturally to me.
Karine Jerime on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 9:16 pm
She looks like a fucking puppet. The guy on the left is telling her what to do. Start at 0:37.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-83EBQfq81M
Yaline alfore on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 9:31 pm
The fucking cock sucker on the left has his eyes closed and everyone find that normal. See at 4:36.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqt7JM4TeuY
Ialde maritime on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 9:37 pm
0:22 the guy on the right. Face of someone that is mentally retarded, everyone find that normal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P7yLS8W__Q
alain lamdire on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 10:01 pm
You hit the wall with your fist at full force the first 2 hours you have no pain. The third hour a little bit of pain. You would expect to have pain immediately. It is like there is lag in the software and it take 2 hours of calculation before sending to your fist a pain signal.
Alain lamarre on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 10:14 pm
When your Boeing-Bell V-22 Osprey needs 20 min of inspection time before being able to take off, you are doing something wrong and you are not running an efficient army.
Your equipment should be user friendly and anyone should be able to use it with minimal training.
You are doing it on purpose to decrease the lethality of your army.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 10:23 pm
If you are not able to rapidly build a citizen army and provide it with user friendly equipment, you are doing it wrong.
alain mariotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 10:27 pm
This is the kind of BS I am talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRw8jkSXQ5Y
Iriane lamardi on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 10:36 pm
Look at this fucking BS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clMY9M1FauQ
Alain marcoote on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 10:49 pm
The pain in my wrist is almost gone. They did something to me to improve the robustness of some part of my flesh body. The legs are still crappy. They did some work on me, it is difficult to explain exactly.
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:15 pm
It feels sometime that I am given a fast self healing body. Pain on my wrist is gone. I will know more tomorrow.
Irene marcus on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:29 pm
Fucking gay as fuck. Only a gay man or a woman could come up with something like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mubAZoxmq3k
Mairie Lacomptnat on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:35 pm
Only a gay man or a woman could come up with such humiliating display of masculinity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_0iq4rBQQk
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:44 pm
This is even gayer. The negro look masculine compare to them.
See 3:24:42
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I11-YUbT8gI
alaidn mateernal on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:50 pm
Another gay shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYIhYpGaaEc
Ialaie Laurentid on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:55 pm
Vous beurrez épais en tabernacle. See at 2:24:56
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYIhYpGaaEc
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:58 pm
What happened in India in the past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYIhYpGaaEc
Isavelle jean on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 12:07 am
What the fuck they did to them to be that upset. It looks like India is upset and really piss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYIhYpGaaEc
Isabelle marie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 12:23 am
Some people are really upset. They are more upset than I thought. Indians seems really upset at the current situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYIhYpGaaEc
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 12:36 am
No I would not redo it another time. It is not because I was good at it that it means that I liked it.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:01 am
They care more about fame, money, beauty and prestige; than they care about fixing problems and running the nation. See at 3:00. When the shit hit the fan, they run away and hide. Then they dump their problems on some else back. I made comments about that. Than a man like me comes in and take control of everything. Then the real shit, the real fucking shit start to hit the fan in ways that cannot be described;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgQ2eruVhE4
Regean Marchand on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:29 am
Than a man like me take control of everything including the currency and the supply chain. Set up an army and when he is ready it is 10 year, 20 year of unending massacre, genocide bloodshed.
Denis Laproche on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:36 am
You should have seen what he did to them. I was an amateur compare to him. Same with Africa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZYjQSKJIGA
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:40 am
Look at the fucking cock suckers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4shQGccZ0bU
ALain marcotte on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:44 am
This is probably not accurate. Some men are roaming earth and cannot be killed. These are the men that did the clean up.
Denis mauvais on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:57 am
I am not a fan of helicopter, as they required too much maintenance and too much highly technical personal to operate and fix them. It nice to have them, but eventually they failed you during time of war as they cannot be maintained. I prefer citizen militia over the army rigid structure of command.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtDLIWQ-6rc
Isavelle marecheval on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:59 am
This is too big and will fail you during time of war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtDLIWQ-6rc
Alaon lamadee on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:08 am
You cannot staff submarine, helicopter, airplanes with untrained citizens. But you can hire them to drive these.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsVVZPQ540
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjfVfMswhzU
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:25 am
The supply chain is not strong enough to produce the number of vehicle required to run an efficient citizenry forces. I would give up if I were you. I am not coming to help earth in any capacity. All these comments are highly theorical and represent a best case scenario that cannot be achieved in real life. Just wait, the conservation of mass will do the extermination for you.
Just protect the chosen ones.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:30 am
You need a strong supply chain to do what you want to do, earth does not have that and it will get worse regarding the state of the international supply chain as times goes on. It simply would not work even with a citizenry army. Just extract the chosen ones as soon as they are ready.
Isabelle jean on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:20 am
It really happen like that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9HIi7rWMUg
Alan majdie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:23 am
The date is really 1969. I was just born. I did not know about these.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNegZjLzYyQ
isale marie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:26 am
This was broadcast on public TV. Fuck they have no shame.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNegZjLzYyQ
Alain marinade on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:35 am
They really showed that kind of crap of public TV. They really did that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC3Z2KrlwGw
Denis Troudeau on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:37 am
Are they mocking us with this kind of crap or they are serious, I cannot tell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC3Z2KrlwGw
Lariae jeaie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:41 am
Iran must had that good quality oil that everyone wanted is my conclusion. I cannot tell if they mocking us or not
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT93r2xy2qs
Denis Trude on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:45 am
I am starting to think that they are mocking us. I think they are mocking us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HaaYpOLaxk
Ulaine Jerima on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:48 am
They are mocking us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5hGk81o45Q
Iliane market on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:55 am
I know I am repeating myself, they really show that crap on public TV. They are mocking us. They did a coup in Iraq in 1959.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAMiNw-KqZU
Ulaine marcotte on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:56 am
There you go, it is about oil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABGJXAXzYgw
Juste laforge on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:03 am
Just like that they were exploring the desert and they found oil, just like that with primitives tools, fucking computers were even not invented but they found oil by drilling holes in a random manner in the middle of nowhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABGJXAXzYgw
Isabelle Jean on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:10 am
Using a needle magnetic compass they survey the desert and never got lost. GPS system were not invented by then. Using a piece of shit compass to orient themself they found oil. Really fucking cock suckers.
Isabelle jean on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:18 am
Nomad wandered in the middle of the desert without a compass and they never got lost. At 2:05. Really fucking cock suckers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1c98s596dg
Ulaine Mary on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:35 am
Really fucking pieces of shit. When you survey new lands you need an GPD, an compass and a map. What is the autonome of a truck 200 km. You had an exploratory convoy with a diesel tanker. in the middle of the desert in soft sand. You put spikes into the ground every 100 meters to mark your route so you could come back. I need more details about how you setup your exploratory convoy.
Really fucking cock suckers.
Derive laoil on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:43 am
All this piece of shit scenario so you could push people into your smart cities and control them better. All of this just for that.
Jermaie Bavie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:59 am
Giving me a fucking break with your piece of paper and your shit graphic at 5:05.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f94Tr0D67EU
Lalen allen on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:01 am
Fuck you at 6:28
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn62YQRG37c
Maie larousse on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:05 am
You had fucking detail maps with elevations datas on it, even before satellite were invented at 7:41. Who made your fucking maps you are using. Fuck you pieces of trash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn62YQRG37c