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Why the IEA is Wrong About Peak Oil Demand

The IEA predicts peak oil demand in 2028 due to the shift towards cleaner energy technologies.
OPEC disagrees, forecasting rising oil demand driven by increasing energy needs in emerging economies.
Two key factors often overlooked in oil demand forecasts are the growth of the middle class in emerging economies and the energy demand for artificial intelligence.

It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.

In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.

“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”

This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.

As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.

The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”

What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.

Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?

The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.

To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?

Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!

Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”

One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.

Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.

A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.

It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.

Your takeaway

The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.

The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.

Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-

“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”

Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.

By David Messler for Oilprice.com

9,427 Comments on "Why the IEA is Wrong About Peak Oil Demand"

madie qwe on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:06 pm

Slavery training camp are what we should called schools. You could call that obedience training also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRK70kyaWOI

Denis Jacques on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:23 pm

Watch the videos that I have put in the comments above, and dare to tell me that earth is anything else then a slavery camp and an experiment.

alain market on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:25 pm

Preparing for war. This is one of the first step.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57-Wnr5cBKU

Jamal abdouly on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:26 pm

Preparing for war. This is one of the first step.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuF0gSFsDqo

Aralmi deilie on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:28 pm

Even the Japanese were served this kind of BS propaganda.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwsXHd0ZJcA

Ulayine Marianna on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:31 pm

There were a lof of fuckup shits that happened in Japan too. Go back to the black and videos they were feeding to the Japanese population. you will see what I mean.

Ulaine Marcotte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:33 pm

This is what I mean. Go watch old black and white videos produced in Japan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFELoJXiRwo

Laine Poulain on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:44 pm

Typical of a reality based around the concept of death (entropic degradation) as main cohesive element. Everyone will die on earth it is guaranteed. They will have to reboot earth and repopulate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGwXPahwjXs

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:48 pm

Eventually everything will become infertile on earth: plants, humans, animals. This is what we are seeing here also. Inflation is caused by death or entropic degradation of every life form. This is what we are seeing here. Only the chosen ones will live and be allowed to leave earth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGwXPahwjXs

Reginal lamorte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:59 pm

Typical of a reality based around death as a main cohesive element. See comments above.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xrQFvcNdR0

Regil lamoute on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:02 pm

What the fuck did I told you again, they are suffering for advanced genetic degeneration.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V55klYxkjvQ

How I know so much about so many things about earth. This is the question. The only answer that I could find is that I reincarnated multiples time in the past. I might be immortal but I am not sure of that.

Marocee mariame on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:08 pm

What the fuck did I told you again, they are suffering for advanced genetic degeneration.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BipJuekq584

This is why you have Whites women with manly faces but no sexual appetite: advanced genetic degeneration

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:15 pm

I have shit load of these on my Youtube page.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcMJ98sNZOk

I know it is just a simulation, but you can programme genetic degeneration in the simulation. You can program death inside to simulation to see what will be the outcome of a reality based around death as a cohesive element.

Ulaine marcotte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:18 pm

Trying to turn a White women with a manly face into a beautiful female for procreation purposes. I told you about the protection bubble to monitor the next reboot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJFYytLKMug

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:22 pm

I told you that the Whites race has all traits of race suffering from advanced genetic degeneration. Same with the Jews. Whites people are simply too stupid to not suffer from advanced genetic degeneration.

Isabelle Manly on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:27 pm

There you have it, trying to transform a White female with a manly face into something that is fuckable for procreation purposes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3bB-13dtnQ

Natalie Jean on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:30 pm

There you go, right there in your fucking face. See comment above. Whites women are unfuckable,they are too ugly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rM-fsRiUrg

Nale Jaime on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:36 pm

This fucking planet. this fucking shit hole.

L’émission télévisée la plus étrange des années 1960 avec des petites filles. Est-elle perverse ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRsXOytmWp8

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:41 pm

Trying to fix their problems of advanced genetic degeneration but promoting procreation between a old man and young girls. One male procreators and multiple young girls as female procreators. This fucking shit hole called earth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRsXOytmWp8

Laine Lapique on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 5:55 pm

Fuck cock sucker

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5mkI1o3DU40

Trying to fix their problems of advanced genetic degeneration by promoting procreation between a old man and young girls

Alain marcotte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 6:19 pm

Fucking cock sucker and pedophile.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNAtK-Qhlqg

Trying to fix their problems of advanced genetic degeneration by promoting procreation between a old man and young girls

Isabelle jean on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 6:22 pm

See comments above. They are really desperate.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Ph_fxrUiyiM

Allan lafraise on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 6:28 pm

You have to wonder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKi4Y7SgyIM

Tremale maria on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 6:31 pm

You have to wonder if they are not rebooting earth reality as we speak by removing npc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3rxjUJXt14

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 6:34 pm

Is this accurate, could this be fake.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD2e80vLjAI

Alain maria on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 6:42 pm

This fucking town is called Killingly, killing-ly. This is the fucking name. This has to be a joke right. You are fucking with me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDLwkkwANQI

jerime larose on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 6:48 pm

I am going to need 2 cigarettes in a row maybe 3.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2af4gcS-b9Y

alain marcotte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:12 pm

On November 22nd, 1987, A TV pirate hacked into WTTW Channel 11 in Chicago, Illinois, to interrupt the broadcast of Dr. Who. He rambled on and on about random stuff, not making much sense. his words were hard to understand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjeUuakHsLw

Marie laporte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:23 pm

Apparently this system was always there and was never shutdown. I am not sure what to think of it. This is something that you would create if you think that you were about to go to war and need to ration ressources for a war effort. If you were planning to go into a killing spree you prefer to have people stay at home while you do your killing. I am probably wrong about this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fFB9BsTeP4

Maie laporte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:27 pm

Lets say you want to kill people inside an apartment building. You issue an alert message to clean streets of people. Then you go to the apartment building and do your killing. It makes carrying execution easier. That could be used for that purpose.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fFB9BsTeP4

Alain ariana on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:30 pm

Look like they have begun a reboot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTxwJPrzu08

iline marac on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:31 pm

I would need money and a car, so I can drive around and confirm my suspicions.

Alain Majic on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:43 pm

Not sure what to say about this. They cannot survive on their own, without a community to keep them alive they panic. She cannot survive on her own, she as to draw attention toward her and hope that someone will have sympathy for her and comes to her rescue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv2aj2HWpGQ

jeremaie marcotte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:48 pm

They cannot operate inside a team if they are not the center of attention. They won’t accept to submit to any form of authority and are therefore incapable of building and running an efficient army and go to war. Something like that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv2aj2HWpGQ

Alain marquis on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:53 pm

Real intelligent men are capable of identifying a real leader and work with him and delegate the decisional process to the leader that they have chosen. These people are incapable of doing that. They are unable to be part of a team because they have no social skills and the IQ needed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv2aj2HWpGQ

Alain lacoste on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:58 pm

how do I know all this stuff. It is a good question. It worried sometimes as it seems I had a long live and I reincarnated many time. I am starting to think that I am really old, something around the age of 1000 year old.

it worries me sometime

Ulaie maverifck on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 8:30 pm

Some people seems afraid of me. I began to notice that around 2000. Some people don’t want to be near me. It is difficult to describe and it is just a personal feeling. Some people seem to know more about me that I know about myself.

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 8:41 pm

When your arms start to fly out of nowhere with the goal of kill someone else.