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Why the IEA is Wrong About Peak Oil Demand

The IEA predicts peak oil demand in 2028 due to the shift towards cleaner energy technologies.
OPEC disagrees, forecasting rising oil demand driven by increasing energy needs in emerging economies.
Two key factors often overlooked in oil demand forecasts are the growth of the middle class in emerging economies and the energy demand for artificial intelligence.

It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.

In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.

“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”

This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.

As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.

The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”

What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.

Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?

The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.

To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?

Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!

Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”

One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.

Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.

A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.

It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.

Your takeaway

The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.

The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.

Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-

“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”

Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.

By David Messler for Oilprice.com

9,427 Comments on "Why the IEA is Wrong About Peak Oil Demand"

Isabelle jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:29 pm

What the fuck did I told you again. See comment above about porn and accelerated time vortex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIv2wNdbIUs

Nathalie laporte on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:56 pm

There are antennas on top of the cave we are living in that are used to simulate GPS satellites.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucXHlJE8cmU

Start with the code inside Garmin GPS. Take over Garmin GPS company and access their code directly.

Natalei jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:08 pm

I am not studying that topic. I am not your slave. Fork the money first.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLKPOVv85wM

Yelenne Marie on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:18 pm

I know car battery are not impressive. What about measuring voltage on a battery. It is shit way to evaluate the charge of a battery. Aren’t you impressed about voltage scale on a car battery. You would expect better for a so called advanced civilization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gq0iey9VC94

Why we are not dead is a mystery to me.

Natalie Jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:30 pm

If earth is a simulation, it is not a sophisticated simulation, a car battery proves that, so are ceramic sockets.

Alaon lamadie on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:37 pm

Here we go accelerated time vortex that started around 1980.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=233Nbe7GwU8

I remembered the bitch at 0:07. Fuck she had a manly face. She was unfuckable, not surprised with Whites low birth when women have manly faces.

Avril jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:43 pm

As soon as videoway was available so was porn dedicated channels on vidoeway. People that were not alive during this era could not understand when I am saying that we entered an accelerated time vortex around 1970. Date above is a mistake it was 1970.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuxrDZFD3yQ

alaon lemdire on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:48 pm

I was thinking about super channel and porn. videoway looks like a way to test people IQ.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyYkVIN0rZg

Natalie jamal on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:06 am

There you go trying to boost the rate with cheap shows. They knew back then that the IQ of earth was too low and the birth rate was too low also. I don’t really remembered this show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26m_G8IsM0Y

The shit that gen X born around 1970 have seen.

Ilian jarath on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:20 am

0:05 is your IQ and memory test. Memory test will tell your abilities to master an language. It is a mastering language test.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdhHtrhakhI

Alain ramel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:27 am

Test to check the ability to do mental addition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ur56dHos_M

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:37 am

We ass fucked these cock suckers so bad when we started to kill fertile women and try to terminate the human race. It is probably not accurate but I will put as it comes to my mind.

The ass raping we gave them. Should have seen that.

greald berthia on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:41 am

Here are you IQ and memory test. Right there in your face.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG80d8mQrnk

Yellen ariae on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:46 am

It is probably not accurate but I will write it as it comes to me. Certain night you would enter in a state of sexual hypnosis that could easily last an hour or more. Just cannot be explained. Look at how the girl is dressed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYFOcbY0Irk

Isabelle jean on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:55 am

One hour in a state of sexual hypnosis fully erect. If you did not die the next day of the day after, you knew you would live old and healthy.

Lia Tong on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:00 am

Sexual hypnosis, this is what this song is talking about.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgc_LRjlbTU

Jean marie on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:08 am

Sexual hypnosis. You live through it, it is almost guaranteed that you would live to grow old.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcATvu5f9vE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoHpSY3IoAI

Isabelle Lanthier on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:45 am

In general Asians female are better at sexual orgy than white women. White women are basically losers.

alain lamare on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:54 am

0:14 I don’t know if it true or CGI, but this is what I am talking about. You eventually get an erection looking at this. Whites women are losers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqwnt2n8IkY

Isavelle long on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 2:03 am

When it comes to sex, gang bang, orgy Asians female are considered the top. Whites female the bottom of the barrel.

Whites and Jews should have been exterminated a long time ago.

Alain soral on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 2:11 am

3:52 Bouchard and his young fuck meat. At some point they were pushing this relationship of an older man with a younger female.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-GZ0e25BkE

Celine Dion comes to mind. It was almost an pedophile relationship.

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 2:34 am

LES ENVAHISSEURS 1967 PROMOTIONS D’ABC-TV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olOE2ZAG74A

I told you that I am a time traveler and came here on earth to study it and make recommendations regarding its future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8

Look at the mathematic equations he is writing on his computer screen, exponential and sinusoidal functions at 1:02

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 2:40 am

I told you what we are going to do about earth. We will exterminate its population

isavelle jean on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 3:03 am

Preparing for war. You want revenge against the people that fucked over all of you. Good luck because you are on your own.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSzQ2mwQw2I

Alain James on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:01 am

I remembered this. Look like a memory test, vocabular test and an IQ test. With these tests they know what modifications to make to high school programs. It was mainly older adults that were calling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxfXjAixxkI

Alain Jamal on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:35 am

Very few people, if any, in the world have the technological knowledge to fix such a complex machine. We really live in a simulation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoEpozmOV40

Jean Marie on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 4:50 am

9:40 this is what I was talking about. Antennas simulating GPS satellites for Garmin GPS handheld devices.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6Piy7FfNII

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1GzWcNbWfw

Denis ùTruel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 7:55 am

If you are not happy with immigrants, go kill them yourself negro, I am not doing it for you. It is your job to kill them not mine. I like immigrants because they help me accomplish my goal that is the genocide of the human race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZl4tgsU0HQ

Alain mariotte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 8:22 am

I came here to study earth. I shared my finding with earth using theses comments. I am not your savior, I will not be your king, I will not kill the invaders for you. I came here to study earth and makes recommendations about its futur.

denis trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 8:29 am

What did I said, earth is a matrix of solids only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction. It is even in the video.

0:59 is a blast furnace door closing and the workers are wearing protective heat reflective suit to protect them again the heat coming of the blast furnace. My life story is in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 8:44 am

4:08 is the destruction of earth civilisation
4:17 the ball of light, is the little boy extraction vehicle to extract him out of earth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX

Isabelle jean on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 8:45 am

4:08 is the destruction of earth civilisation
4:17 the ball of light, is the little boy extraction vehicle to extract him out of earth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8

Alain lamarre on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 9:21 am

The fact that the electrical contacts of the relai are still in good shape is highly suspicious (at 3:49). You saw what happen when I passed 10 amps in 10 amps relay. You saw what happen to the contact a month later. I understand that these are industrial grade contacts, but still.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xa4leigm28

Isabelle jean on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 9:40 am

What is this at 3:52 at the bottom of screen on top of the contacts, is that an aluminium heat radiator to cool down electrical contacts. These relays are fucking originals and never been replaced. Give me a break. Some are logic relays and don’t carry much current, some are high current relay that active the electrical motor and carry a lot of current. This is why you see a spark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xa4leigm28

Alain lamarre on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 9:59 am

You just have to understand how to immobilize the elevator by turning the electrical motor off. Then they will be forced to use the stairs to get out. You use the stairs as choke point and kill them when they are trying to leave the building using the stairs. You need helicopters to evacuate team members on top of the building after you turn off the elevators.

This is a video from the special forces studying how to immobilize an elevator.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xa4leigm28

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 12:57 pm

I went buying cigarettes on foots. I felt sometime that I had no legs and sometime they felt heavy. I felt like I was floating between 2 dimensions. 4.46 in the video below is what I called floating between 2 dimensions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:03 pm

I used to have a sun tan on my forearms. It was kind brown. It slowly started to vanish around 2018. Now it is all gone and I have a white skin on my forearms with power white spots. My guess is that I will ready to do dimensional travelling very soon.

Denis Trudel on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:05 pm

My legs are really shit and I would not be able to do combat with them. They will need to improve. Maybe I don’t need my legs where I am going.

I used to have a sun tan on my forearms. It was kind of brown. It slowly started to vanish around 2018. Now it is all gone and I have a white skin on my forearms with powder white spots here and there. My guess is that I will ready to do dimensional travelling very soon.

Isavel jean on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:12 pm

I removed some wet snow in my driveway. For some reason the snow felt light as if I did not need physical force to shovel it. I call that floating between 2 dimensions. Something will happen to me once of these fucking day.

Daniel Tradal on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 1:40 pm

This is why I demanded a eternal infinite memory with an logical sequential processor and 3D mental visual abilities to be able to easily analyse and understand complex things like this. Human memory is too small and limiting our abilities to understand this world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WKkPi90wCU

Alain marcotte on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 2:01 pm

I made a detour and stopped by one of REM train station. It felt like I was hypnotized by the layout of the station. You can feel something is wrong once you open the door.

Natale Jamal on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 2:08 pm

There were something off with the color. The red extinctors seem to prefect. The color was uniform without any paint defects. Felt like someone was trying to hypnotize you with the color palette.

Alain lamrre on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 2:31 pm

Fleur de lys the offcial symbol of Québec

https://marylandmoves.com/montgomery-county/

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/fr/article/fleur-de-lys

I told you, we took control of everything and put everything under the authority of one King. After that the ass fucking started.

Jea Abousla on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 3:04 pm

We were so brutal and violent that they never forgot that. They created this fake WW1 and WW2 as mean to discourage the use of violence in the resolution of conflicts. They began promoting communication and dialog as a mean to resolve conflicts.

I thought I was a brutal asshole until I visited Africa and Russia just to realis that they were more violent than me, as if it was possible.

Marie Gendron on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 3:14 pm

Look at this crap. Do you know how heavy these concret blocks are. No way you would do that in real life. Another fucking illusion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMdeBFPqVUc

Alan lamarrem on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 3:39 pm

Peace and prosperity. This is what I was talking about, promoting communication and dialog as a mean to resolve conflicts insteal of brutal violence. This is how much we were brutal and violent. It was something to see with his own eyes.

https://www.crwflags.com/fotw/images/c/ca-on-wo.gif

Maie jamal on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 3:40 pm