It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 9:08 am
Ostie de salope a peau blanches, incluant toutes les peaux blanches Québécoises and Canadiennes et toutes les autres. Fucking piece of shit gate keepers. You can only relied on the negro, certainly not the fucking whites trash.
Isabelle Jeana on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 9:47 am
They were teaching kids that food and your flesh body are real, they were teaching them that you had to had food to say alive, because you body is a complex biological machine that required food to stay alive. Using food, there were convincing kids that the flesh body was real. Some time you need extreme measures such as killing earth gate keeper to send a message. Sometime you need to genocide the Jews and Whites and kill the whole human race be stopping globalism to send a clear message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wUyM1tinLk
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 9:49 am
You stop global maritime containers shipping and you kill everyone on earth. You can do that with submarine and other surface ship.
Denis Jean on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 10:09 am
Each reboot added more land toward the North with forest on it. Simulation was started in the South and expand North when land was added at each reboot.
Kansas flag
https://www.britannica.com/topic/flag-of-Kansas
Vermont flag
https://rare-gallery.com/734813-vermont-usa-flag.html
I was right again. You have to keep chosen in a protection bubble and post apocalyptic vehicle to survey and patrol the land.
Look at the rear differential at 0:57 of the Ford Ranger raptor. This is the kind of setup you would on a post apocalyptic vehicle. Using round think articulation members connected to the differential. When you build something like that , you are expecting really rough terrain.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 10:11 am
Look at the rear differential at 0:57 of the Ford Ranger raptor. This is the kind of setup you would on a post apocalyptic vehicle. Using round think articulation members connected to the differential. When you build something like that , you are expecting really rough terrain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Dmq-V0bbg&t=57s
Alain lamarre on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 10:17 am
You genocide the gatekeepers (Whites and Jews) and stop international trade to kill everyone on earth and force them to reboot. They you driving around and check what they are doing.
Alain marcotte on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 10:35 am
Some people would say, you are White also, how can you genocide your own kind. First I am not human, I am a time traveller. I have no emotional attachement toward the human race or Whites people. You understand, I have no emotional barrier to overcome when I asked for the genocide of the Jews and Whites people, I am not an human you are not my kind.
Alin lamarre on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 11:11 am
To think that because I am White and I speak French I have some kind of emotional link and ancestral memory toward France or Europe is to make a big mistake. I only feel disdain toward Whites people and I would have genocide them a long time if I could.
Marting Mikes on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 11:35 am
To assume that because I look like a human I am dedicated to the continuation of the human race and I consider the human race as a beautiful achievement, is to make a mistake.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 11:59 am
The installation of globalism has delayed the extinction of the human race on earth. This is not the fault of Africa, Thailand, Russia. It is the fault of the White race and the jews. It is the fault of Europe, US and Israel. As such I have to order the genocide of the White race.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Isabelle jean on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 1:18 pm
Vietnam war finally explain. It was a fake that was used to hide the installation of globalism, manufacturing standard power structure (government, police force, provincial government, city government and so on) Clearing the land see at 6:59 in in Vietnam to eventually install manufacturing plants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQanR3jZSOE
Same thing with Korea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQanR3jZSOE
Isasbelle jean on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 1:26 pm
I told you that the Whites race need to be genocide. They will understand that he happening, the population of earth will not understand, but they will. Globalism delayed the end of the human race, it is just normale to genocide the Whites people first a way to send a message.
Alain lamaare on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 1:59 pm
King Crown in the middle. This tell us that at one point in history police force were directly under the authority of the King, not the city. See at 0:11.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rd-dcOM29kk
Ulaine Lysee on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 2:03 pm
This was the part of the deal when we negotiated a new power structure with them. Everything on the land was placed under the authority of one man, everything.
Jean marie on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 2:53 pm
Another piece of shit equipment that look like it belong to another epoch, something that belong into the previous reboot that survive and was transfer into this epoch. See at 3:44
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpMtoATGIwo
Jean marie on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 3:38 pm
Videos like this are bullshit. It is just a indication that we have started a new reboot. Only special being with eternal memory and their own clock will be able to remember the past and see the changes that are coming with the installation of a new reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi3V9rDzw10
Alain lamaree on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 3:57 pm
They tried established big populations settlements in the Nord of Québec such Abitibi. It never worked as it is too cold and summers are too short. They are reaching the limits of what they can do with earth. They will have to reboot and make a lots of upgrades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi3V9rDzw10
Isabelle jean on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 4:03 pm
They had big dreams for the Nord of Québec such as big population settlement. It never worked. Adding more land toward the Nord in the next reboot will be waist of time, if the don’t change the climate and increase the temperature in the North. They are basically fuck and a big updates to earth reality are needed.
Alain Charnle on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 4:11 pm
Les couches chaudes. They did a lot of experimentation and they all failed. My father, that is now dead, could talk about that and the involvement of the Catholic church in the colonisation of the North. My father had a big hatred toward the Catholic church and the pope. They were running it at the beginning. They reached the limit of what earth technologies can deliver in term of increasing quality of life and productivity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwNuu88zdHM
Jean Laporte on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 4:37 pm
This was them setting up the reality back in the days. They rebooted around 1930 I would say. I expect them to reboot by 2050 or even before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nT3vC4a7Kg
Karine Leblanc on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 4:43 pm
The kings of the old world predate 1930. I would say 1850 would be time period where the old Kings of the world were ruling the whole earth. We tried to exterminate the human race but we failed. Maybe we should have exterminate the Jews and Whites race instead.
Ulysee maria on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 4:53 pm
We should have worked together as Kings and kill all the Whites and Jewish we could find. It was a mistake to have kept some of them alive. We made a mistake by keeping the Catholic chuck alive and not killing all Italians living in Italy.
Jean marie on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 5:13 pm
It is probably not accurate but I will put it as it comes into my mind. The two Kings I like the most where the African King of African and the Russian King. Fucking tough sons of bitches both of them. I always had a total for Europe and I still hate them and I will never stop hating them.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 7:57 pm
I was a King before and I am not doing it again. Je me suis cassé le nez une fois, je me le casserai pas un autre fois. You are on our own.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 8:00 pm
You know you hate your nation and your race when you prefer watching this even if you don’t understand what they are saying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kryJ2qTqvyQ
ALain laforge on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 9:05 am
Nice off roads vehicles. All old man over 50 year old with younger fuck meat between 25 to 35 year old. Old men kept in a permanent state of light sexual arousal to boost their level of energy and aggressiveness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3Ld5T71Ui8
Denis Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 11:06 am
Je me fais pas enculer comme une merde mes tabernacles. Je ne viens pas vous aidez. Débrouillez vous sans moi mes osties de merdes.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 11:09 am
Faites descendre un autre voyageur temporelle, c’est pas mon problème si vous êtes juste des merdes. Je ne me fais pas enculer de même.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 11:23 am
Je ne suis pas icitte pour aider la population de la terre, je ne suis pas icitte pour tuer les envahisseurs à votre place, je ne suis pas icitte pour vous aidez à sortir de votre corps de chair, je ne suis icitte pour devenir votre roi. Je ne me fais enculer comme ca. Faite descendre un autre voyageur temporelle pour la job sale parce que ce ne sera pas mouah.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 4:24 pm
La planète terre c’est votre problème. Ca jamais été mon problème. Fait rentrer un autre voyageur temporelle parce que la planète terre c’est pas mon problème, c’est le votre. Je ne suis pas votre tabernacle de sauveur.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 5:10 pm
Si vous voulez vous débarrassez des immigrants c’est ta vous de les tuer, c’est pas a moi de faire la sale job pour vous. La planète terre et la continuation de sa civilization ne sont pas mes problèmes, c’est vos problèmes.
Jaime Presley on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 6:36 pm
I must have had one fuck up past. Made of excess, money, sex, debauchery, murdered, war genocide on a grand scale that cannot be imagined.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbdRLyixJpc&list=RDegKm0S1goxw&index=30
Jean marie on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 6:53 pm
I must have had one fuck up past. Made of excess, money, sex, debauchery, luxe, luxure, murdered, war, genocide on a grand scale that cannot be imagined.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_u7TbIDn3I
Isabelle Jean on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 7:16 pm
I had a good life. I don’t need to redo it again. Je ne viens pas vous sauvez.
Isabellel Jean on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 7:22 pm
You saw that too, two nights ago. Was it a heat treatment or it was a small temporel distortion. It felt like a small temporel distortion or floating between two realities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05aqGYnH6Gs
Alain genron on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 7:31 pm
Are you impressed with the ceramic socket. Earth can build a computer but cannot build a decent socket that can support heat and is solid. You too you were impressed with earth.
What a shit hole that place is.
Daniel Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 7:51 pm
Aren’t you impressed with the quality of the blades to cut steel. I made two cuts in soft steel 3/4 inch wide by 1/8 and my blade has already one tooth broken.
Aren’t you impressed about earth. What a pathetic shit hole it is.
Why we are still alive is still a mystery to me?
Alain gendron on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 8:18 pm
This piece of shit machine. Not the first time I see a video on this machine. Looks like another piece of equipment that survive this current reboot and was transported into it, or they forget to erase it before rebooting earth in 1930.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuZpX5rk6pM
Alain lamarre on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 8:30 pm
Russia has the most extreme off road capable vehicles on earth. It is really fucking bizarre what kind of extreme off road vehicles they have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d02ojoTpaFk
Isabelle jean on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 8:33 pm
You see what I means.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1kApWkcQc4
Alain jamal on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 8:42 pm
You see these king of things only in Russia. These are heavy duty vehicles for extreme off road terrains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41nD0yeB3-k
Alain marcotte on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 8:54 pm
Another heavy duty truck for extreme off road terrains. These ones were made in Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGzOyjUm6iw
Jean marcotte on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 9:09 pm
Go look at the spec of the Ford Ranger raptor and its advertised water wading specification of 800 mm and ask yourself why someone would build something like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6cYqDI6yxo
Natalie Jean on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 9:30 pm
A lot of you should consider themself lucky as you will die in the next reset with no possibility of reincarnation. Some of us might be forced to endure a long life without possibility of dying. Some of you will get the privilège of dying early and become nothing.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 11:15 pm
Mes ostie d’enfants de chienes. J’en reviews toujours pas comment vous m’avez enculer. Tu te souviens the Home Trust, tu te souvient quand Justin Trudeau a dit que Buffet allez aider Home Trust. J’aurais put faire 300% de rendement si vous m’allez dit avant. J’aurais pu m’acheter un char avec ca crisse de mangeux de marde.
Mes osties de tabernacles, m’a vous enculez ben solide comme vous m’avez enculer.
Denis Trudel on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 11:22 pm
Vous avez besoin d’un gars de terrain, pis c’est la que je vais vous enculer ben solide mes tabernacles. Fait venir un autre voyageur temporel si tu veux un gars de terrain, parce que ca ne sera pas moi ton gars de terrain, ostie de mangeux de marde. Je chie sur ton operation pis je vais la faire échouer.
Isablele Jean on Sat, 10th Jan 2026 11:35 pm
Cette operation la ne réussira pas sans un gars de terrain. Ca devient de plus en plus évident. C’est la que je vais vous enculer ben solide en vous forcant a redescendre un nouveau gars de terrain, ce qui équivaut a faire échouer cette operation. Je parie que tu ne l’avais pas vu venir celle la crisss de mangeux de marde.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 11th Jan 2026 12:13 pm
Vous pensez vraiment mes osties de mangeux de merde que je vais venir tuer les immigrants pour vous. Vous pensez vraiment ca mes tabernacles. Il n’y a pas de sauveur qui va venir sauver la terre et votre civilization de marde. Tu ma enculés je vais t’enculer aussi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbAEP3UMw7E
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:08 am
Pourquoi c’est toujours a la peau blanche a régler les problèmes majeurs sur la terre. Encore une fois vous êtes venu chercher un blanc pour vous aider. Peut-être que ca serait le temps que les autres races fassent plus d’efforts.
Pourquoi êtes-vous venu chercher un Québécois blancs. Pourquoi pas un chinois, un Noir, un Mexican a la place. C’est toujours au blanc a réparer la merde des autres.
Tu m’a enculé, c’est maintenait a mon tour de vous enculez tous
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:31 am
Mes osties de mangeur de marde de tabernacle. Même pas capable de déposer $250 000 dans mon compte de banque pour que je puisse m’acheter un voiture et patrouiller le territoire. Ostie de crisse de minable sans cervelle. Toujours a osite de blanc quand il y a des problèmes majeurs a résoudre, jamais les autres races.