It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 12:05 pm
I have no proof, but my intuition is that they are about to reboot. They are about to kill everyone on earth. They are about to flush earth and keep only the chosen ones alive. This is based on my personal intuition and it is probably not accurate.
Signer Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQxd49znzs
Jean marie on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 12:15 pm
This kind of setup is only available to very high value male procreators. Only the top male procreators have access to this kind of procreation facilities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z7fwSLM5H0
Jeam lamaude on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 12:41 pm
I gave up on the Whites race and their survival. I think it is better to exterminate the Whites race and the Jews and restart a world without them. Your fucking pieces of shit gun laws and your fucking British whore of Carney.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z7fwSLM5H0
Isabelle jean on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 1:05 pm
Il y a de la salope Asiatic a fourrer partout en Asie. Nous n’avons pas besoin de la race Blanche et Juive, qui disparaissent les crisses de tabernacle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSKNlj6B8tE
Ulaine marie on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 1:22 pm
Asia is full of procreation center and sperm collection center. This is Taiwan. Ideally I would try to fuck some of these to see what kind of orgasm I would get.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Konz9VjB4A
alaion lamarche on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 1:32 pm
Do you fuck these Asians whore with our without a condom.
Jaime Presley on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 1:42 pm
1:01 trying to boost the birth rate bye having fake NPC sexually attractive females walking among the population.
HARAJUKU BEST WALK (Dec 2025) Only in Japan: Winter Cold, Summer Fits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oDVXFRi4eQ
Iabele maria on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 1:51 pm
The birth rate is too low and they don’t have a solution for that. They will have to make modifications to the reality, reboot and repopulate again. This is what my intuition is telling me,
Ulaine gremelin on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 1:55 pm
Why they have no kill me is a mystery to me. Not with a gun, but with some kind of energy rays. Why I am still alive is bizarre to me. I guess I am untouchable.
ALain mariette on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 2:18 pm
I don’t understand why they did not try to kill using energy rays, a cancer, an accident like falling down (maybe they tried but they failed).
I also don’t understand why they don’t try to buy me with money or contact me in any form.
Maybe because they are planning to reboot earth and I am helping them destroying earth reality.
Jeremai janette on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 2:52 pm
-27 Celsius last night and before that -25 Celsius. There is not much snow on the ground but it is colder that usual I would start. Temperature during the night goes really low.
As always, the weather channel lie and display a warmer temperature.
I am not that cold this year, I am walking naked in my house except for the underwear. Really weird.
alaind marquis on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 2:58 pm
I told you that I will suck all the energy in earth realm and transferer it into me for my eternal memory. I told you that I will destroy earth as I become eternal.
alain treamblay on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 3:10 pm
Fucking impress with the work they did on my body internal furnace and with the heat regulation system. I am fucking impress.
Just missing the invincibility shield, and I should be able to do dimensional travelling using my flesh body.
ualdie kong on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 3:39 pm
China really produces creative and imaginative stuff. Their graphic are really nice, so are the color choices
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ry2XTHcr4c
Jean marie on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 4:55 pm
This is called freedom. Something the West does not understand. There is something nice about looking at some fuck meat and chose one based on your state of sexual arousal. This is called real freedom, choosing a whore according to the level of sexual arousing she is generating in you. Men in the West would not understand that as they are too feminized.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ThT-soG2aE
Ulaine martime on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 5:09 pm
Most of you would not understand this world hidden only accessible to certain person. This is called freedom. Something the West does not understand. There is something nice about looking at some fuck meat and chose one based on your state of sexual arousal. This is called real freedom, choosing a whore according to the level of sexual arousing she is generating in you. Men in the West would not understand that as they are too feminized. Some of you are so fucking stupid and ignorant.
Than you come back 2 days later and chose a different fuck meat. Only really powerful people can afford this kind of life style.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ThT-soG2aE
Denis Trudel on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 5:28 pm
It must be traumatizing for some of you Whites people. Must traumatizing that a dimensional traveller with an high IQ sees women as only fuck meat and he feels no guilt about. Must be traumatizing that he puts his personal pleasure and well being above and beyond the well being of civilisation. Only him matter and earth civilisation can die as far as he is concerned.
Must be traumatizing for the piece of shit White Europeans and Jewish trash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ThT-soG2aE
Jaime Preslye on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 5:42 pm
More entertaining then Colbert, Gutfeld, Kimmel, Maher, Stewart,
the US and the West has fallen so low compare to the rest of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFb3FYeqmEI
Jena maide on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 4:58 am
Whites are an ugly race, including their young female. Looks like some kind of genetic trash from an experience that has turned bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUKkRxNkZdw
The young Asiatic female is way prettier and as better well defined female features compare to the Whites. Whites are just a trach race that should not exist. Same with Jews, both are trash race.
Olioeva erasure on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 5:07 am
Whites looks like genetic reject. Whites make me think of a genetic laboratory experience that has turned bad and the creator did not have to courage or time to permanently erase his failure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8DQw1gNVKQ
Isabelle Marie on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 5:21 am
Whites are genetic reject that should have terminated a long time ago. Same with the Jews.
Both have women with manly facial feature but without the sexual appetite you would expect for such manly facial feature. It is a fucking failed lab experiment. Just have terminate both races a long time ago.
Alain Marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 5:36 am
Typical White female with manly facial features but without the sex drive. Compare this female genetic defect below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bq7wGEGHe0
To these
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUKkRxNkZdw
Jamarie marchand on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 5:49 am
The Whites female is extremely ugly and unfuckable. I am not surprised to see a low birth rate considering how ugly the White female is.
You dont realized how ugly she is until you start looking around at what other female in other nations looks like. Whites people look and behave like a failed laboratory experiment that has turned bad but they did not have the time to clean their mess, kill them.
Jean Marie on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 6:04 am
This is what I mean by multiples reboots. See the rock wall on the right at 1:54. The train tracks have been put on top of it there after an reboot on top of the old rock wall that was there before the reboot. I expect them to reboot really soon as sexual procreation is not woking and the female need major upgrades to make them sexually arousing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4qxDb4ktsw
Ilene Marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 6:26 am
They might do a transitional reboot instead of a cut off reboot. The transitional reboot might have already been started around 2000.
The transitional reboot is the you kill old NPC and lower the population really low, then slow introduce your improved female among earth the population, same with science, wild life, vegetal life. It is slow rebot that means slowing down everything, and reaccelerating with the new humans, new infrastructure, new lakes, new forest and so on.
This is why it is important to have post apocalyptic vehicles so can survey as much land as possible. If you don’t patrol the land you won’t see coming.
Olaine marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 6:33 am
The reboot might take a full 100 year easily. They will probably kill the population and keep the infrastructure as it is. Thee will modify the land (remove roads, lakes, river add new road, new forest) that could take 60 year and slowly repopulate.
Alaion marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 7:43 am
I will tell you why they have these cops show. It is to protect the people inside the power structure: mayors, bankers, high level official, police forces member themself.
Personal protection does not work and cannot be given to all the member of the structure of power: judges, mayors, and so on.
They create these fake scenario to make us believe that the police is efficient an identifying and catching the thief, murders. It is to discourage people from attacking and killing members of the structure of power: judges, bankers, mayor, politicians, policeman and so on.
It is like saying if you attack someone like a mayor, when can track and catch you, so don’t try it we have high tech stuff you don’t know and don’t understand such as DNA sampling, finger prints on firearms and so on. It is a lie. They are trying to protect the structure of power in place and people in this structure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRzsZhB-NyA
I could probably go out and muder an mayor and they have no way to find who I am if I am carefully. If is just a show to discourse people from attacking the people inside the power of structure. Everything on earth is about manipulation, power, protecting people in position of power and protecting the structure of power.
Heline araline on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 7:46 am
These shows are complete lie. They exist to protect the structure of power, not the population. See comments above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RSl0PsTOaQ
Alan Jean on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 7:50 am
They will fail as always. They will look for a savior. The savior will take control of all the levers of power. their savior will kill them and try to terminate the human race for ever.
It is so fucking repetitive that it is getting boring.
Karim Lakaija on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 7:59 am
Why do they use the exponential function in finance. First because it is a continuous function. Longer a project take bigger the exponential is and less attractive an long term project becomes. It is a way to limit the time horizon of a project to the life span of an human.
it is a way to eliminate the project that take too long to build and range bound the finance to that of human life.
Go long at a finance book with all these exponential formula. You should see it right away if you have an high IQ.
They will fail as always. They will look for a savior. The savior will take control of all the levers of power. their savior will kill them and try to terminate the human race for ever.
It is so fucking repetitive that it is getting boring.
Jamalcid laforve on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 8:04 am
Most of you cock sucker have a too low IQ to be capable of understand with what we are dealing with. Everything fucking thing you can think of is a lie.
Matint Jamal on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 10:55 am
You want another example about reboot. Canada, looks like a piece of land that was added during the last reboot to provide lumbers to the US. They added Canada cover it with trees. They knew the wood would find its way to the US using trade. They knew they would install trade. Canada was added during the last reboot to provide timber to the US.
They did not want to change the US too much during the last reboot. Instead of replanting trees in the US, they added a new piece of land called Canada.
You need post apocalyptic capable vehicle like the Raptor to survey the land and catch the modification early on..
Jean marotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 11:10 am
Why the Bronco has a removal top and doors. To survey the land in the summer and by able to smell odors and heat temperature changes.
You are in you Bronco patrolling the land, you smell something that smells like dead animals. You investigate and find 10 000 dead animals. You put a mark on your map. You go check this same spot next week and find out that all the dead animals have disappeared, then you know they are updating the animal kingdom.
Laine Puante on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 12:21 pm
I think Chinese, Korean, Japanese fit into the category on symbolic language and French, English and other ones fit in the category, of scientific language.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRF-P7niIAo
natla marcille on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 12:29 pm
Korean is symbolic straight line language.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBDrM1VPJX0
Alain jaen on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 12:43 pm
I think Chinese is called a square symbolic language. I am not sure of that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRF-P7niIAo
jean marie on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 12:53 pm
Do you want to know where you go when you want to fuck a women that is 20 years old but has the body of 12 year girl:China,Japan,Korea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54kHBpKt6Z8
jean marie on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 1:02 pm
I made a mistake Korea is an geometric symbolic language because of the ellipse, line and exponential that are the main symbol of this language.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACx561lH_s
jewill marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 1:04 pm
I made a mistake Korea is an geometric symbolic language because of the ellipse, line, circle and exponential that are the main symbol of this language.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACx561lH_s
Alain Lmare on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 1:46 pm
Korean is either called an geometric symbolic language or an mathematical symbolic language because of the ellipse, line, circle and exponential that are the main symbol of this language.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACx561lH_s
Alaon marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 2:03 pm
It is a nice land survey vehicle but you have to be really rich to run such equipment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lywH91tsLFA
Alain marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 2:41 pm
Time dislocation again, time has moved forward. Feel like 18:00 but it is just 15:40.
Denis Trudel on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 2:50 pm
It feels like they are playing with time and moving it forward. It really feels like it to me. Fucking cock suckers.
Jamei marie on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 3:26 pm
Ostie de tabernacle qu’elle est drôle celle la
i like that the deeper you go into math, the fewer numbers you actually see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gic7GJ5RGbY
Alain marcotte on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 3:50 pm
If I remembered correctly it is always the same 2 differential equation that are used in engineering.
First order linear differential equation
Many physical systems can be described by first order linear differential equations.
https://brilliant.org/wiki/first-order-linear-differential-equations/
Second order linear differential equation
The second-order linear differential equation involves the second derivative of a function. It is crucial in many areas of physics and engineering, such as mechanical vibrations, electrical circuits, and heat conduction.
https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/engineering-mathematics/second-order-linear-differential-equations/
There you go, I summarized earth engineering mathematics.
alain marcoote on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 4:46 pm
I get a kick out of these videos. I can relate so easily. These guys must have done advanced maths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKsOnMMhdBY
alaime maro on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 5:32 pm
Fucking time dislocation it feels like 20:00 but it just 18:31.
Isaveeell jamal on Tue, 6th Jan 2026 6:17 pm
lol People probably will not understand the humour in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw97Tj5zxvA
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 7:01 am
The fucking Whites race are the gate keeper that are stopping us to permanently terminate the earth reality and liberating people from the flesh body.
Black, Arab have understood a long time a ago that earth is a shit hole with no future. So they decide to do the minimum to stay alive.
Whites of Europe are the ones that have improved the standard of living of people on earth therefore slowing down the death rate of earth population. Globalism installed by the Europeans has allowed an increase in quality of life and a decrease in the death rate. If it was not for them, human race would have been dead a long time ago.
I therefore ordered the genocide of the White and Jewish race. This include all the Whites people of earth: Canadians, US, Europe, Russia, Australia, South Africa, and so on.
Fucking piece of shit Whites race acting as gate keeper for Satan.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 9th Jan 2026 8:40 am
The negro of Africa will be given the privilege to see the end of the world and will be the last people to die. This is way to say thank you to them for their dedication toward the termination of the human race and liberation people from their flesh body as them and I both share the same goal and believe in the same things.
Fucking piece of shit Whites race acting as gate keeper for Satan.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka, death, owner of the earth.