It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Jeam lafortune on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 2:49 am
Say so poor Kendall that you want to be impregnated by me and birth a Godly baby. After all you are also an experience porn star that loves being degraded into the void of nothingness and death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-oEd4bCKRw
Jamal Istrixa on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 2:50 am
Earth is just a doormat for me to have fun with.
Goldly Warrior on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 3:14 am
Charlotte Flair still has a manly face, but she still has a vagina and could give birth to warrior to could be used by other dimensions to destroy the world and kill the Jews. Say so poor Charlotte that you want to be impregnated by me and birth a Godly baby that will genocide the Jewish race for me in his due time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNp3qQXzldQ
Jeanne Laforge on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 4:22 am
Bathing in the heat generated by my 2 250 watts 120 volt heat lamps is like bathing in the middle of the sun and not dying. Earth temperature measurement scales are a big fraud that could have only be born from the mind of inferiors beings, as everything on earth is.
Stronger rapid on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 4:37 am
Being raped by stronger females and forced to procreate against you will, which man had never fantasized about that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U137jLMTVzM
Ulaine marcotte on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 4:59 am
Their fucking electrons model. It is basically an lie. Mentioned it at the beginning and then moved straight into heavy mathematical equations. Could even not bring into class a real electrical wire, a real resistor, a real capacitor and a real coil and show them to the students.
Why we are not dead is a mystery to me
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGa_b26eK2c
Yellen Jam on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 5:22 am
These fucking pieces of shit of mathematical teachers. I remembered this shit. I asked give me a real life example of a vector space. Never answered back. He could have said your house is a vectoriel subspace included inside a bigger vectoriel subspace that is the land that you own. Always these fucking simplistic definitions that means nothing and that you cannot relate to in real life. Some of them speak like fucking robots that have never been updated since they have been created. These mathematical teachers have never been updated after their creation and always teach the same crap that nobody understand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DICzG7Xypbo
Denis Trudel on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 7:38 am
my hunger has decreased a lot. I crave food less and less. Very soon my body will be ready for dimensional travel. The issue of my flesh body heat management system need to be fine tuned. Certains issues cannot be handled from inside of earth itself, can only be handled when outside of earth.
My flesh body heat management system really needs to be improved.
Denis trudel on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 7:50 am
the invincibility shield for my flesh body is also not ready. I need this invincibility shield to be able to travel dimensionally to avoid flesh body damages.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 11:43 am
Bathing in the heat generated by infrared radiations is pure delight. You don’t want to leave the heat bubble generated by these radiations. By the way fuck Europe, UK, Israel. Fuck the Jews, French and British. Death to all of them. Death to the White race also.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 11:55 am
Nobody is coming to save earth. Earth population will be killed and the chosen ones will be extracted or given a protection bubble while still on earth. The call has been issue and the vote regrading the death of earth population has passed. It is a done deal.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Isabelle jean on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 12:15 pm
Nicely done. I am talking about the music part, not the women and lyrics. Nice first minute. Nice first minute preamble. Nice steel guitar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9wDo3dds-s
Marie jean on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 12:20 pm
I know that I am your Lord. I should be home soon. Once my job is done on earth, I am heading home.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9wDo3dds-s
Alain lemdire on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 1:00 pm
I am waiting for the French, British and Europe to openly said that Canada and US colonization never happened because it is impossible to build wooden ships without electrical tools.
I am waiting for them to admin the fucking truth that we nothing in common with them.
Jaena Msrie on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 1:08 pm
Even in 1970, handheld electrical tools where rare, expensive and quality was dismal at best. No way electrical handheld tools were available during the colonization of US and Canada.
I am waiting for Europe, France and Britain to come clean and tell the truth.
Isasbvelle jeane on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 1:33 pm
I did not know about all of these. My field of personal interest and expertise are math and mechanical engineering. I never cared about history and politics. It is some form of psychological manipulation as usual. They are good at it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdddwLyaDfg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOtV7AjeHYA
Understand now why you have Trump having media questioning him before embarking into the helicopter.
Isabelle jean on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 1:37 pm
They are afraid of violence directly toward them and infrastructure. It start at 2:17. They are clearly afraid of violence against the structure of power: government, judges, police forces, city mayor, bankers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOtV7AjeHYA
Maartin Mikes on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 1:40 pm
they are afraid of men like me. It is right there in his speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOtV7AjeHYA
Denis Trudel on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 2:23 pm
they are afraid of men like me. It is right there in his speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOtV7AjeHYA
civilized behavior
civilized = civilisation = governance structure: government, financial system, big corporation, banker, university institution
behavior = control the people inside the civilization using power: army, police forces, judge, gun laws and so on
It is right there in front of your face, they are telling you that they are afraid of men like me. They are afraid of a man like me that will take control of civilization and levers of powers. Russian represent men like me.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth
Isasbelle jean on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 2:35 pm
It even applied to sex.
Civilized behavior = violence against women is not, feminism, female rape laws, male submission to women, conventional sex without violence
uncivilized behavior= violence against women is ok, female rape is ok, male dominating women is ok, women worshipping man virility and masculinity by performing degrading act and accepting violent sexual acts toward her such as slapping, choking, rough anal, sperm worshipping and so on.
Yelake Helarim on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 4:39 pm
You have to understand that they are not afraid of a man like Trump. He did not took control of anything really important such as the Federal reserve, Ford, GM, Blackrock and so on.
He did not transferred all these assets above under his personal name and established himself as the owner of the Federal reserve and the owner of the US dollar. It is when you start controlling all the levers of power that the get nervous. They get nervous when you take control of the currency and use the currency to advance your personal goal such as building for yourself an army.
Denis Trudel on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 4:53 pm
Nothing is more dangerous for the powerful people than a single man, that has never been married and has no kids. Nothing is more dangerous than a time traveler that is capable of accessing all the levers of power and use them as it pleases him. Time travelers are usually immortal beings that cannot die. Their flesh bodies can die, but not their souls. Some time travelers can exit earth with their flesh bodies really rapidly if things turn bad. When a man in my situation is too calm, you should be afraid of him and ask yourself how powerful he really is.
Nothing is more dangerous than these men.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth
Denis Trudel on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 5:23 pm
Trying to justify that killing a King in power is morally acceptable. You guys are really naive about this universe and had a short life compare to some of us. Some people cannot be killed no matter how hard you tried. Some time traveler have divine protection and cannot be killed while on earth. Some of you are really naive about things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBdfcR-8hEY
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth
Isabelle jean on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 6:11 pm
They are a tough and ruthless adversaries at 17:17. Again, afraid of man like me that will setup his own power structure instead of adopting the international power structure: national government, provincial government, municipal government, police forces, environmental agencies,
They are afraid that some one will have to balls the change the power structure of a nation and put it under his personal authority.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SbsCaRYW6w
Marie heline on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 6:15 pm
We must be really really realistic about the nature of this leadership. Again, they are afraid of man like me. See at 18:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SbsCaRYW6w
Jean lapore on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 6:19 pm
He is basically saying that a ruler with full power over everything is dangerous because he could use the nuclear missiles to annihilate another nation. Their solution is to have a structure of power similar to the US so one personne does not full control the lever of power. They are basically afraid of men like me. Around 18:20. I told you, the old Kings of the world fuck them over big time by trying to terminate the human race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SbsCaRYW6w
Maril Jeam on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 6:35 pm
It always ends the same way, the situation get deteriorate and they start hiding and looking for a savior. Savior shows up and asked for all the levers of power to be put directly under his authority. It always ends the same fucking way. They he turns around and uses his powers to fuck them over.
Jean Marie on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 6:55 pm
They always think the can negotiate. You have no negotiation power when you come to a man and beg him to save your civilization because you just destroyed it. There is nothing to negotiate when you beg some to save you. You start right there from a position of inferiority.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKbcmlKb81c
Elaine jaie on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 7:49 pm
I was a King once, and I will not do it again.
Do you want to know how you know you failed in life, when you have a personal butler, when you have 5 cars to choose from each morning to go to work, when you property is so big that it feels like it belongs to your butler more than it belongs to you, when you did not know that there were a bench hidden in the woods so you can go cry there alone.
Then you know you made the wrong choice and being poor is being rich and wealthy.
Did it once, it is enought.
Deitrl elaine on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 8:52 pm
They have funny shit in China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTjweYFoDQY
Alain gendron on Sun, 4th Jan 2026 8:59 pm
China shits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqIZOXzPugQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA8iMIZf_vo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKcIuET2kFc
Iabelle wetting on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 4:17 am
Collective rape video. Feminist are not going to like that
https://xhamster.com/videos/priscila-belini-goes-100-hell-very-rough-gangbang-dap-with-fisting-and-piss-xhWqghu
Heavy degradation. it is uncivilized behavior. Reagan would hate that.
https://xhamster.com/videos/kaitlyn-katsaros-goes-1on1-very-very-rough-xhHPfcS
Isavelle jean on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 4:55 am
These fucking cock suckers. Spreading their mental retardation to everyone and creating courses to spread their mental retardation to people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhm55mIdSuk
https://oyc.yale.edu/political-science/plsc-114
Yelen James on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 5:09 am
Department of Political Science
https://politicalscience.yale.edu/academics/graduate-program
These fucking cock suckers. Spreading their mental retardation to everyone and creating courses to spread their mental retardation to people.
MBA for Executives
https://som.yale.edu/programs/emba
Master’s in Asset Management
https://som.yale.edu/programs/mms-asset-management
Master’s Degree in Global Business & Society = Creating an one world government
https://som.yale.edu/programs/mms-global-business-and-society
alain lamarre on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 5:21 am
What did I said, I am born in 1967.
Women’s Studies at Yale began in the confluence of two events: the scholarly impulse of early second-wave feminism and the 1969 admission of Yale’s first female undergraduates
After much careful work on the part of the Task Force and a trial run over the experimental summer session of 1978, the Women’s Studies Program won the approval of Yale’s faculty in May 1979.
https://wgss.yale.edu/beginning
https://wgss.yale.edu/publications
It is a lot of people to kill.
Alain gendron on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 5:32 am
They always failed at everything. Then they go into hiding mode and start looking for a savior. Then they try to negotiate a power structure with the chosen savior that would still benefit them somehow. Savior demands total control of the levers of power. Savior kill them. Then the savior proceeds to terminate the human race.
Martine Jeane on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 5:57 am
They probably rebooted earth reality a couple of time before. They wait until the whole population is dead and then reboot the reality with upgraded software (updated periodic table, updated mathematics, updated political sciences, updated past history) and then repopulate.
Alain marcotte on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 6:04 am
This is the real course unmodified. Her speech has not been modified.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjs50gJa-78
Alain lamarre on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 8:14 am
This is what I mean by earth has been rebooted multiple times. Look like a machine (see at 0:30) designed for narrow streets with heavy trafic. Look likes a machine designed for the old world but that was transported into the new world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzQHBRPiKyU
Heleine Marie on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 8:39 am
I gave my ideas to monitor the next reboot. Chosen ones with their own internal clock and infinite permanent memory. We talked about the protection bubble and the post apocalyptic vehicles, Ford Raptor. We talked about the issue of entropic degradation for the vehicles and the idea to link the vehicle entropic degradation clock to the clock of the chosen ones to slow down entropic degradation. We talked also about unresolved issues regarding the borders of the protection bubble and its influence on earth. We talked about the issue of gasoline for the post apocalyptic vehicle in a dead world.
It looks like something coming from the previous reboot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzQHBRPiKyU
Isabelle jean on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 8:59 am
This is what at mean. Start at 1:42. Look likes different type of houses as if previous reboots came with different type of houses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrZ6pIWl7A8
Grey Alaine on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 9:25 am
Grey alien morphology and body movement. Women on the left at 0:54.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whMgAWctbuA
Alain Morel on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 9:40 am
This is a prostitue house. Good old days, when you could chose your fuck toy for the night. Or maybe your female procreator, because we don’t what happen after to your sperm or the woman if you did not use protection. You should watch BDSM porn with Japanese dominatrix. Fuck these are aggressive bitches if you believe the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcjV6BxBEzs
Isaveell jean on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 9:59 am
If the women let you do it without condom, it is a procreation center, if you do it with a condom it a sperm collection agency. This look like china.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnordw2eNS0
I believe this is a fake video. I would have to see it with my own eyes
Alain marcotte on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 10:07 am
This is the kind of shit they show in Japan to boost to birth rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDb3aKQ2ylM
Jean Marie on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 10:22 am
Procreation unit or sperm collection unit. If woman gets pregnant she disappears with ever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dD2eoSCzJQc
Nathalie Jean on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 10:35 am
This is what I was talking about regarding the advanced linear algebra course. Once you enter in some places like below, you feel like you enter into another dimension that is not located on earth. It feel like you did dimensional travel to some unkown location.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnordw2eNS0
Alain lejean on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 10:53 am
This I would have to see it with my own eyes otherwise I am assuming this is fake CGI. I would know it as soon as I would step in the room that this is a dimensional portal to somewhere else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhA4WppKkkA
ALain lemare on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 11:17 am
I am not equipped to comment on this. I would need to acquire the knowledge related to the medical field. I would need an eternal infinite memory. I made comments about that. There is just so much I can do with my shit flesh body and limited memory. It is your responsibility to upgrade me to a more performing human.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru9CnU_Dh4g
ereina lamontelamdd on Mon, 5th Jan 2026 11:32 am
This is called erection control and preparation. This is the first step to build an erection and sexual arousal. Sexual arousal will be raised until he is ready, then the female procreator comes in and he dumps his load within her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcEvospYqRo