It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:39 am
Je ne me fais enculer de même par personnes, y compris vous.
Isabelle ùjean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:40 am
Je ne me fais pas enculer de même par personnes, y compris vous.
Denis gtrudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 8:35 am
Tu as besoin d’un gars de terrain parce que tout ce que tu as fait jusqu’à maintenait n’a pas marché. C’est que m’a enculé solide toute la planète et toi compris. Je t’attends au tour mon tabernacle.
Daniel Letourneau on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 8:37 am
Tu as besoin d’un gars de terrain parce que tout ce que tu as fait jusqu’à maintenait n’a pas marché. C’est là que m’a enculé solide toute la planète et toi y compris. Je t’attends au tour mon tabernacle pour t’enculer solide.
Nathalihe ùgen on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 8:43 am
C’est déjà décidé que nous allions tuer toute la population de la terre. Il n’y aura pas de sauveur pour la terre. Juste la mort. Seulement quelques élus que quitteront la terre par voyage temporel dimensionnel.
Denis Treudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:20 am
We are currently collapsing the international supply chain by increasing the price of Silver and Copper. I am going to ass fuck earth and all of its population. The biggest ass fuck ever seen on the universe. My name will live forever in the history books written by people witnessing all this unfold from the outside of earth.
Books will be written about me: how to destroy a whole planet, how to collapse the reality: tactics, tricks by Denis Trudel.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:30 am
A few books will be written by people witnessing all this unfold from the outside of earth.
How to destroy a whole planet based on Denis Trudel life story.
How to collapse a reality: tactics tricks based on Denis Trudel life story
Earth a limited lifespan reality based around the concept of death based on Denis Trudel life story
Earth heavy mentally restarted population an analysis based on Denis Trudel life story
Denis Trudel life story from birth to his moment he left earth based on Denis Trudel life story
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:37 am
An another book that will be written.
How to build a cohesive reality, elements of cohesion such as food, conservation of mass. A brief introducing to reality designed.
Based on Denis Trudel finding during his dimensional travel to earth.
Isabelle jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:43 am
An another book that will be written.
Study of earth mathematics with emphasis on how to create a cohesive reality using 3 equations: linear, exponential and sinusoidal.
Based on Denis Trudel finding during his dimensional travel to earth.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:47 am
The following course:
Study of earth mathematics with emphasis on how to create a cohesive reality using 3 equations: linear, exponential and sinusoidal.
Based on Denis Trudel finding during his dimensional travel to earth.
required that the course Earth mathematics has been completed before registering for the course.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:55 am
The following course based on the book
Earth chemical model and periodic table. Why earth periodic table was responsible for the fall of earth.
Based on Denis Trudel finding during his dimensional travel to earth.
Isabelle jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:59 am
Earth procreation ritual and the ugliness of the White women. Includes informations about BDSM and other unconventional sexual ritual.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:05 am
Available at your university library written by Denis Trudel.
Essay regarding the beauty of the young Chinese, Japanese and Korean women and comparisons with the White women
Alain Lamarre on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:11 am
Manly facial features of the Whites teenagers girls compare to the most rounded facial feature of the Chinese, Japanese and Korean teenagers girls. Essay on facial beauty.
You earth population are so fucked, You are already dead.
Isabelle jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:21 am
The following course
Earth temperature measurement scale and heat transfer: why it might be responsible for earth demise.
for the students that have the following prerequisites:
earth mathematics
earth chemistry
earth thermodynamic and heat exchange
earth physics
Yelan marie on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:04 am
The following course is available
Earth slavery system, demoralization, low birth rate and death of a civilization.
following prerequisites:
earth governance structure
earth authority structure
earth political system
earth procreation ritual
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:10 am
The future is already written and all of earth population is already dead. The books about earth have already been written.
Signed Denis Trudel,aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:32 am
The following course is also available for student at the master level.
Earth electronics components and overheating issues: a study of earth electronics, heat transfer and earth matrix of heat.
for the students that have the following prerequisites:
earth mathematics
earth chemistry
earth thermodynamic and heat exchange
earth physics
earth electricity
earth electrical grid and AC current
earth electronics.
Isabelle jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:40 am
The following course is only available to the chosen ones for their training to become a creator.
Earth a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction: advanced reality design concepts.
Marcotte Jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 11:49 am
The ass fucking of earth and its population is about to start and shift into high gear.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 12:16 pm
Je me fais pas enculer de même. Je me fais enculer, je t’encule, dans ce cas là je vais enculer toute la plante et tuer toutes sa population.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 12:48 pm
I have no problem with immigrants. I have a problems with people that ass fucked me since my birth. I don’t give a shit about earth or anything related with earth. You don’t ass fuck me plain and simple, does matter who are from earth or from outside of earth.
You fucking useless cock suckers. Some people might be misinterpreting my comments and think I care about earth, them or earth population. You are misreading me.
Ulaine James on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 12:54 pm
I don’t care that earth is being destroyed from the inside by invaders that are consuming natural ressources. I welcome them as it helps me achieve my goals. I think some people are misinterpreting my comments and my goals.
Isabelle jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 1:06 pm
The fact that earth is invaded by beings that are consuming natural ressources and killing earth civilisation is a positive thing for me. I could call them brother in war as we both seek the total genocide of the human race.
Reginal Lamarche on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 5:13 pm
The following history course if also available:
The price of silver and the genocide of the human race.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 5:21 pm
The following books is also available.
Denis Trudel and his hatred toward the Jews and Whites people: his reasoning for the extermination of both.
Alain Gendron on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 5:45 pm
The following series of book about earth civilizational building blocks
Oil and plastic: weak material of poor quality with no substitute
Steel and rust: most important build block demanding too much and none long lasting
Cooper and its heat transferred properties
Silver and its low melting point
Isabelle jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 5:48 pm
The following course is also available:
Sexual procreation and the ugliness and smelliness of female vagina: an essay on earth low birth and the death of earth cilvilisation
Jean marie on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 5:49 pm
The following course is also available:
Sexual procreation and the ugliness and smelliness of female vagina: an essay on earth low birth rate and the death of earth civilisation
Isabelle Jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 5:50 pm
I could do that all evening long.
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 5:56 pm
Earth principle of conservation of mass and natural ressources depletion: analysis of a cohesion element.
Earth principle of conservation of mass and pollution: how to design an cohesive element to ensure a short lifespan reality
Isabelle lamare on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 6:06 pm
The following book about women is also available.
Female stupidity: why was it tolerated by men and the fall of earth civilisation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Kr-ee1RcXg
Ali Larter on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:14 pm
If you think Trump is dangerous, you did not reincarnate often. You should have seen what we did to earth population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtzRKowNBfI
Natalie Marcus on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:25 pm
There is a shit load of these.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZU_B9C7qJc0
Jermaie latoupe on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:27 pm
There are a shit load of these type of videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1IVnPpBCT0
Yele Maria on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:49 pm
Buy 10 millions of corporate bonds and you will receive a 1000 pages legal document with them telling you that you have been fuck over by the corporation and you have no legal recourse against them.
Jean Marie on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:50 pm
Here it is
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010816/insight-prospectus-corporate-bonds.asp
Marie Jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:57 pm
Then you start reading the prospectus of 1000 pages. At page 500, you don’t remember what was written at page 10 of the prospectus. Now you know you have been fucked over.
alain lamarre on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 7:59 pm
According to Bing AI.
Hundreds of pages
Bond prospectuses are often lengthy, complex documents that number hundreds of pages and are almost certainly not the stuff of light reading. However, a company intending to raise money through certain bond issuances may need to publish a prospectus in advance due to financial market regulations.
Natalie aroche on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 8:17 pm
The stuff you see when you have a lot of money but is hidden e to the poor people, I just can’t describe.
Ulaine Marie on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 8:29 pm
Eventually you say to yourself, fuck all of this I will genocide the human race, this shit is unfixable.
Nathalie Jean on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 8:55 pm
Pushing emotional trauma where there is no reason to be. Creating unstable emotional human with show like these.
Pushing emotional conflict where there is no reason to be. Creating unstable emotional humans with show like these.
I said that many time and I will repeat it again,it is guaranteed that everyone will die on earth as I explained here multiple time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFJbKvgQ3vQ
Iliean lamare on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:01 pm
That what I said. I am born in 1967 just at the beginning of the reboot. I came to study earth and give my recommendation about the future of earth. I came to the conclusion that we have to genocide the human race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYQPxlOl85o
Alain Lamarrem on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:08 pm
Bye Bye 68, 1971 is not the right in the video above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4yT8ufhE04
That what I said. I am born in 1967 just at the beginning of the reboot. I came to study earth and give my recommendation about the future of earth. I came to the conclusion that we have to genocide the human race.
Marie yelaow on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:19 pm
My recommendation is to exterminate the human race of planet earth. I recommend to keep chosen ones in protection bubble to monitor how the extermination is proceeding and give back status report.
The future of earth itself will be decided after the extermination of the human race. Earth might be turned into a training center for futur time traveller if possible, that would one of my suggestion.
Alain lamarre on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 9:56 pm
Right at the beginning of the video you have publicity about cereal for children. Food is a cohesion element. An cohesion element is something that make you believe that your flesh body is real because it needs foods. I made various comments about cohesion above.
Gravity is also a cohesion element that makes you believe that earth is real because it is an easily repeatable experiment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9WnjIYOTp0
Notice the date 1965, I was born in 1967. Look likes it is the first one of this show.
Jean lemaire on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:07 pm
I might get all my dates wrong about the reboot. 1930 seems to be the beginning of the reboot, 1970 with the tv color starts the accelerated time vortex: computer, porn, music, cell phone, internet, internet shopping, and so on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzEIzEW4Prk
Olenia Uarine on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:14 pm
Go watch this movie. It will send shivers down your spine as you watch it. Notice the cloning room in the movie, you have to wonder at this point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZyNJ3cKfEg
Alaim Marcotte on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:19 pm
I am born in 1967 and I came to study earth. I recommend the extermination of the human race.
I recommend to keep chosen ones in protection bubble to monitor how the extermination is proceeding and give back status report.
The future of earth itself will be decided after the extermination of the human race. Earth might be turned into a training center for futur time traveller if possible, that would one of my suggestion.
Archives : l’ouverture du métro de Montréal en 1966
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSw8g8EHk8I
Denis Trudel on Mon, 12th Jan 2026 10:22 pm
I told you about the accelerate time vortex that was started around 1970. Very obvious when you look at the dates on this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSw8g8EHk8I