It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Calling mybroker on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 11:22 pm
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Kez-Tpb5Ro
Alan lamarre on Tue, 13th Jan 2026 11:31 pm
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fjcJp_Nwvk
Want MoreMoney on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 12:24 am
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LOF7KM7UhY
Essay aboutcohesiona on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:01 am
I would like to welcome how of you. This course is about how to build a reality and the importance of cohesive elements.
What is a cohesion elements. It is an element used to make the human of a reality believe that what they see with their eyes is real. It is a way to attach the energetic soul of a being to a flesh body without the soul knowing what is happening. How do they know the flesh body is real. By creating the notion of pain and death and implementing these notion as soon as they are born in the mind of a new born baby.
For example, in the case of planet earth the following cohesion elements were used: food, defecation, urination, water, gravity, death, pain, time, gravity, chemistry, mathematic and heat where used as elements of cohesion to trick the energetic soul to believe that the flesh body was real. This works better went the baby is jut born and is search of truth about his world.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:02 am
and it goes on and on about cohesive elements and reality building
Jean marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:07 am
Cohesive elements cannot be used in a vacuum a framework must be created to integrate these cohesion elements. This is done by creating cohesive support. Earth cohesion support were the sky, the ground, the wind, the rain, heat and cold. the ground is connect gavity cohesive wlene to the flesh body
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:12 am
Food as a cohesive element cannot exist without a agricultural system to provide the food to the flesh body. Urination cannot exist without creatin oceans, rivers as they validate these urination cohesive element using the eyes as an input system.
I fucking told you that I was old.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:16 am
Pain and death also need a frame work. The medical system will serve as a framework to support the cohesive element of pain and death.
Victor on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 5:34 am
Very pertinent analysis. We too often forget that the energy transition is a very Western issue. When we look at per capita consumption figures in India or Africa, the idea of demand peaking as early as 2028 seems very disconnected from the reality of global economic development.
Loco on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:06 am
L’argument sur l’IA est super intéressant. Même si elle ne consomme pas de pétrole directement, la pression qu’elle va exercer sur la demande globale en électricité et sur le gaz naturel va forcément redessiner tout l’échiquier énergétique. J’ai hâte de lire votre prochain article sur le lien avec le pétrole léger américain !
Loco on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:11 am
Thank you for this counter-current analysis. The figures from Vaclav Smil cited at the end of the article are striking: consuming 55% more fossil fuels than in 1997 despite all the talk of transition is a reality that cannot be ignored. The IEA’s scenario for 2028 does indeed seem overly optimistic.
Alan marinal on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:17 am
I told you that I would exterminate the population of earth. The price of silver is now above 90 dollars. The planet earth is also cooling down rapidly.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/si00
Historic Snowstorms Sweep Russia; North India’s Sharpest Cold In Years; Israel Shivers As Snow Hits Hermon; Turkey Buried; U.S. Arctic Cold Reloads; + Britain Locks In Higher Power Prices
I want the population of earth exterminated as soon as it if feasible.
Jameria Lamotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:32 am
What a manly face you have whore. You are unfuckable whore. We need kids to keep slavery alive. You are too ugly to serve as a female procreators, therefore you shall be killed as you serve no purpose in the cycle of slavery of earth, also known as sexual procreation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oraCJ7iUAaY
Protecting eartn on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 8:38 am
Another white whore with a manly face. We need children to keep earth civilization alive as it is dependent on a steady supply of children to stay alive. You are unusable whores as you are not pretty enough to be fucked for male pleasure and enjoyment therefore not producing these precious children needed to keep earth civilization alive. I then order you death immediately.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oraCJ7iUAaY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5Z6TB0IppQ
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:41 am
When your arms start to fly out of nowhere with the goal of killing someone. He knows that he will die and there is nothing he can do against you.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bofcCWADv48
The extermination of the human race has begun.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 11:56 am
The ones with badges. You know I hate the cops and gun laws right. See 11:49 I told you to not fuck with my weapons and insulte me with shit like Canada firearms laws.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bofcCWADv48
The extermination of the human race has begun.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:29 pm
I will tell you how to deal with Europe and Danemark. You send a submarine to sink all the ships that belong to A.P. Møller – Mærsk. This is how you exterminate the Whites Europeans.
I will show the world war and destruction on a scale never seen before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTDFVs0gxLQ
Nothing easier then exterminating the White Europeans trash with advanced genetic degeneration.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bofcCWADv48
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:35 pm
China has a reliable maritime containers shipping company. We don’t need the Europeans trash. Never take away the weapons of a warrior he will burn the world for such an insult.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bofcCWADv48
Rejean lamarche on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:50 pm
You obviously never did war for real.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFjryipeUX4
Jean Regean on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:54 pm
You even don’t need submarines to sink ship that belong to to A.P. Møller – Mærsk. You just need surface ships. Pieces of shit worthless Europeans and Jews.
Yelene mariatte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 1:57 pm
The supply international supply chain is collapse because of the price of silver, copper. Europe will never be able to rebuild a maritime combat fleet to protect themself. Stupid cock suckers. It causes me no moral conflict to kill people that voluntary put themself in a position of weakness.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 2:01 pm
Earth is a reality created around the concept of death as the main cohesive element. Earth was always about death, war and destruction. To think otherwise is to be naive and have no understanding of the design concepts behind earth.
Signed Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 2:38 pm
What did I said about food being a cohesive element hat can only exist inside a supporting framework that is agriculture. See at 0:08.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLRt-im2Cfg
Ulaine marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 2:50 pm
Two french words were used to name a city, Grande Prairie, in an English province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozCDc_pCqzc
Helein Jeane on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 2:52 pm
Some times it is better to not know your past, as I could be worrisome.
Alain lamarre on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 3:24 pm
Seem like good ideas. I don’t know what the acronyms mean.
Light fast mobile infantry is what I believe in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFCw7LK8pes
Alain lamoche on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 3:32 pm
I also believe in a independent citizens militia with light fast mobile equipment provided and maintained by the army.
Alain morel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 3:46 pm
You just have to make sure that the militia group has a coherent and well organize command structure. You let them decide of their own command structure and you provide them with the equipment. You don’t interfere with their command structure if it is well designed
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 3:48 pm
You are the one providing them the equipment needed, so you still control them.
Marie laporte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 3:54 pm
if you lose control of them, it wont last long as they will be unable to maintain the equipment and the militia will stop to be effective.
Alain lamarre on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 3:57 pm
You provide them the equipment and a small operating budget to buy gasoline, clothing and similar items. The budget is just big enough for them to realize the military operation requested of them.
Alain jean on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:06 pm
You provide them the vehicle, firearms and ammunition, money but no clothing. They buy their own clothing and decide what they like. It is an independent citizen militia unit.
Isabelle jean on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:09 pm
Pieces of shit Jews and Europeans. Fucking garbage worthless race.
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:17 pm
if you want to kill Jews on your territory, you send a militia groups that hate them.
Isabelle jamil on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:19 pm
I think this is how I use to operate, but I am not totally sure.
Alice remidir on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:22 pm
I knew how to do war, I think. The details are not coming back to me, you should have seen how I was doing war back then.
alain marie on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:35 pm
I don’t remember what kind of air force I was running. It was a light air force infantry. No bombers, no airplane, I think it was only helicopters. I had shit load of helicopters.
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:39 pm
I don’t remember what kind of naval force I had.
ALan marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 4:46 pm
Some militia groups became so efficient and loyal that I gave them money to buy some lands and build their own militia permanent installation. You should have seen that shit.
stepahine maroco on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 5:36 pm
I don’t remember owning a big naval fleet, if I did I don’t remember it. I am more a ground guy.
laidme mardero on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 5:47 pm
Yes I always supported female rape especially during war and it was legal.
alain marchand on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 5:53 pm
No I would not do it again.
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 6:25 pm
I don’t like the Boeing-Bell V-22 Osprey. Too complexe to run and maintain and it require a stable and well functioning supply chain. I would decommission them if I was in charge. One problem with going to war is maintaining a supply chain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKMaKyr7nXg
Alain lamarche on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 6:30 pm
Before going to war you have to simplify your supply chain and streamline it. You cock sucker really dont know because you never did war.
Welnest Mereurod on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 6:53 pm
I really doubt that Boeing-Bell V-22 Osprey is real. Earth is too much of a primitive reality with its primitive math to be able to build such a machine that would fly. Earth is too much a primitive reality for such machine to be real. Just look at your fucking periodic table.
Selena longface on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 7:13 pm
Claiming that an earthly human wrote the comments above is like claiming that I am an earthly human when I am fact an I am divine being coming from another dimension.
Same logic as with the Boeing-Bell V-22 Osprey. Claiming that the Osprey is real is like claiming that earth has a sophisticated periodic table.
Denis trudel on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 7:22 pm
the Boeing-Bell V-22 Osprey is not real. The human flesh body is too primitive and lack an adequate memory and logical abilities to build such a plane.
You guys have never been in contact with superiors beings with advanced abilities such as an eternal memory and 3D mental visualisation abilities. Human flesh body is too primitive.
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 7:34 pm
Someone is training me at the art of combat. We calling that playing at Jessica Biel because of the movie Blade she is in.
So I am being trained at the art of combat and feet moves and combat moves.
Alain marcotte on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 7:41 pm
They taught me a new combat move today to avoid bullets. Back arching backward. You have to flex your knees forward to counter balance the weigh associated with back moving backward.
Yelenne amrie on Wed, 14th Jan 2026 7:58 pm
They are training me at how to turn on the heel of my feet. I can even do that on asphalt with boots where the friction is high. I was surprised that I was able to do that.
it is about feet positioning for a better stability.
They are showing me how to move backward and forward and how to place my feet for better stability.