It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Alaine marone on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:09 am
You made your own maps by measuring elevation every 100 meters. You made your fucking map yourself. What the fuck is this shit. You made your own maps or you already had maps available with elevations. Look like you already had map available and just drew line red lines on it. See at 7:41.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn62YQRG37c
Iale vreeder on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:14 am
You want to push people in smart cities and collect datas about them, so you can identify who has good genes and are fit for procreation.
Is this what is all about.
ulaine laforge on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:15 am
It was about collecting datas and studying who is fit for procreation.
“DIRECT LINE TO DECISION WITH EDPM” 1950s IBM ELECTRONIC DATA PROCESSING MACHINES COMPUTERS GG30725
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lc3rHZobNu4
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:25 am
They are mocking us see at 3:27.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPUC-GDfYO8
India alboe on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:59 am
This shit is fucking funny. Fuck the Indians are upset at their current fate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p96Cs2y9K0
ldaid indian on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 6:01 am
Ostie que c’est drole
Alain lamarre on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 11:42 am
I told you, the reboot has began. The will kill the fake NPC, kill earth population and reboot. If I take a car and drive there, I will see that with my eyes. Reboot has began.
Regit Lebaume on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 12:22 pm
No you don’t understand, earth is beautiful and precious so is its wild life. Without the cooperation of humans, wild life will die. The best way to protect the earth and wild life if for people to move into these smart cities and stop occupying the land except for these smart cities. It is the only way to save earth. Thanks, we have these studies form Arkansas about the state of games and fish telling the alarming state of game and fish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JVnlLHwYII
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:18 pm
I was smoking outside. There were no humans and animals activities, no sound, It reminded me of a time where I was roaming the earth alone, unbothered by a fix time schedule. When I could out at 3 AM and drive around and set up buildings in fire just for my personal entertainment and then go back home and sleep all day long. A time of total solitude with no sound and no people. A time of total bliss.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:23 pm
These solitary men that were roaming earth and lived a long life. This times of total solitude and bliss. They healed fast and did not need any kind of medical assistance as they were never sick and were healing fast. A time where stress did not exist. Fucking cock suckers.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 1:32 pm
Fucking cock sucker. There is no reality as self-sufficiently nation. We are gong to fuck you over and fuck over your shit earth project.
There are other dimensions above earth reality that are much more powerful that you are. You are nothing. Earth is kept alive because we want it this way. We could have destroy you and earth a long time ago but we decide to study it. Don’t push your fucking luck too far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAXVDatbLmc
Ulaine marcotte on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:02 pm
Is this the original speech without adding or removing words. They actually really said that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAXVDatbLmc
Yelene Marquis on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:03 pm
I told you about UK, Jews and Whites Europeans. I told you that you cannot trust them.
Jebb (Great Britain, 1900 – 1996) was made a Counsellor within the Foreign Office of Great Britain in 1943
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAXVDatbLmc
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:08 pm
They used the fucking word reality. This is the orignal speech and has not been altered since then. Wooah
I told you about UK, Jews and Whites Europeans. I told you that you cannot trust them.
Jebb (Great Britain, 1900 – 1996) was made a Counsellor within the Foreign Office of Great Britain in 1943
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAXVDatbLmc
Nathalie lamarre on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:10 pm
A machine that will be at the service of us. They actually said.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAXVDatbLmc
Yellen marcotte on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:11 pm
This is fucking original speech unaltered since it was made.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAXVDatbLmc
Regina latrousse on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:23 pm
A machine such as smart city where everything is automated and the real supply chaine have been shutdown and replace with a mathematical model connected to the internet. SO you want to hide the supply chain so people don’t remember that it ever existed as new generations have never seen one with their eyes. Than you can control them using an hologram and mathematical simulation of the supply chaine. Once the supply chain is hidden you could create thing that don’t need to obey the law of conservation of mass or basic engineering teaching that are taught in University. This is your fucking goal pieces of shit.
Alain laforge on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:39 pm
Making air travel a torture so people stay in their assigned smart city for better tracking and study of their behavior. Your engineering courses taught at universities cannot explain properly why a plane can fly. So you will show down air travel before people start to notice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tm5vbpCxZ6Y
Alain ledire on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:47 pm
You need to create the past before you can create the future. Before creating your smart cities you need to create a past history that explain why they were created.
Fuck cock sucker.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 2:50 pm
Look at my comments above, still believe that I am a real human or a dimensional time travel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i17mgRK3GX8
Ulaine marry on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:00 pm
They are creating the past to be able to teach in school why they created these smart cities and why people live in them now and why it is a good thing for everyone including the planet and wildlife.
Creating the past before totally enslaving us.
Ulaine maria on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:12 pm
Look at the BS tech they have inside the police station. I made comment about this, it is to protect the power structure not the population. It goes like this, look at all the high tech they have, they can easily track and arrest me if I try to kill a mayor or politicians. Plus they a carry gun and I don’t. I am better to obey the law and not beat up politicians that I hate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rD6MLFJQ85k
Helenae Laforge on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:23 pm
India just realized that they were given the shaft just by looking at their written language. They just realized that they never had a chance and were pushed into poverty voluntary by them. The truth will upset a lot of people. These people will fight with a fighting energy that will surprise a lot of people. As the truth is coming out, the hatred and anger will come out also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p96Cs2y9K0
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:48 pm
This is why, you fucking cock suckers, are talking all time about peace, dialog and mutual understanding as means of resolving conflict, instead of using violence. You know that if the truth comes out, you won’t able to control the anger and rage of the population. You are fucked if the truth comes out. You have been through that before and saw everything destroyed by anger and rage.
The truth cannot come out, it will come out anyway.
Isabele jean on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:49 pm
They always failed, than a man like me shows up and unleash blood, violence, genocide on a scale people could not comprehend.
Marc carotte on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 3:50 pm
You have been through these cycles of violence multiples times and you are afraid of them
Jean marie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:30 pm
They kept some manufacturing in their smart cities and put it next to the train so people can remember the past.
They planned for a bigger expansion this is why the made the platform longer. They must be planning one hell of an invasion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHMK5c3GJP0
Ulaine marcotte on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:35 pm
They must be planning to bring all the population of Québec in Montreal. Québec will cease to exist and all the population will live in Montreal. Outside of Montreal area it will deserted and without humans. This is why the made the platform longer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHMK5c3GJP0
Urelen amaind on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:49 pm
This kind of installation are so easy to destroy. So fucking easy. They will failed again as always.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHMK5c3GJP0
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 4:56 pm
The kill keep some fake airplane flying so people believe that the international supply chain is still functioning but they will make air travel unpleasant. They will keep some fake airplane so we believe that we are not prisoners inside their city. See at 2:25 the airplane passing above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHMK5c3GJP0
This will fail in a spectacular manner.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:16 pm
I should not write that because I have no proofs of what I am saying. All I see when I look into the future are cadavers on the ground and a dead earth. I see some beings roaming the earth and staying alive against all odd and nobody can explain why they are roaming the earth and they are still alive. They seem to be well taken care of and seem happy.
This is what I see when I look into the futur. Probably just my imagination
Alain marin on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:25 pm
No it is going be only single men roaming the earth. Women will complete vanish. I am not totally sure about the cadavers.
Jean marie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:36 pm
You want more detail. I call them beings because, there will no women in the futur, so no sexual reproduction so they are no humans. They look like humans but they not humans.
It is probably wrong.
Nathale jean on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 5:47 pm
Yes this is what I am saying, sexual procreation will be phased out and abandoned. These will not by humans, I call beings.
Yes we are terminating sexual procreation.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 9:42 pm
Slowly preparing for my extraction out of earth.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 9:48 pm
Shutting down my eating cycle.
Erasing my past and disconnecting for it
Emotionally disconnecting from earth and my life on earth
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 9:54 pm
Preparing for the mental stress associated with a change of environment and an unknown world.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 10:04 pm
preparing for dimensional floating and slippage and not interpretating these as signs of permanent death.
Denis Trudel on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 10:14 pm
Prepare for modifications of my 5 senses
Isabeell marie on Thu, 15th Jan 2026 10:53 pm
that it is, everything has been revealed.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 11:47 am
Everything has been said, everything has been revealed, this is nothing else to add.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 11:49 am
It is time for me to leave, the voice had said to me.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 11:51 am
The voice said to me:
Slowly preparing for my extraction out of earth.
Shutting down my eating cycle.
Erasing my past and disconnecting for it
Emotionally disconnecting from earth and my life on earth
Preparing for the mental stress associated with a change of environment and an unknown world.
preparing for dimensional floating and slippage a
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 11:54 am
The voice said to me:
Slowly preparing for my extraction out of earth.
Shutting down my eating cycle.
Erasing my past and disconnecting for it
Emotionally disconnecting from earth and my life on earth
Preparing for the mental stress associated with a change of environment and an unknown world.
preparing for dimensional floating and slippage a
Preparing for modifications of my 5 senses and adding new senses
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bofcCWADv48
The ones with badges that take your weapons away. Death to them.
Singer Denis Trudel, aka death, owner of the earth.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 12:55 pm
I delivered all the information I had to give. The rest depends on you not me, as I am preparing to exit earth. It is your responsibility to free yourself not mine.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 7:36 pm
They are training me at invisible combat. I will close my eyes remove my coat and put it on the coat on an hanger with my eyes closed. I did a bunch of these small task with my eyes closed. This is combat training to be able to kill 10 guys with your eyes closed. Some one take control of you body and kill the 10 guys for you exactly like we see in movies.
Grahoe laforge on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 7:43 pm
The rumor is that the Russian King went into a meeting alone with 4 other guys. He killed the 4 guys and left the room as this was normale for him to kill 4 guys. This is what the rumor says.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 8:05 pm
La calisse de salope Juives, Britanniques et Européennes. Calises que nous en avons tuer de la merde Européenne et Juives.
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 8:47 pm
You send your men on in their mechanical horses and order them to kill women. Only women, babies and kids below 10 year old.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zT9XRqJuJQ
Denis Trudel on Fri, 16th Jan 2026 9:08 pm
They disarmed the population of Canada with restrictives firearms law, what are they going to you against you and how are they going to fight back. I told you they were losers and they always failed.
What are they going to do against men riding these mechanical horses and killing them point blank. Go small and fast, not big and slow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zT9XRqJuJQ