It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Jaima preslye on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 10:30 am
I am born in 1967. Up to 1977 everything was pretty normal. Then suddenly we entered an accelerated time vortex of shityness. By 1990 the came up with what they call a MBA, master of business administration diploma. You could see that this was about controlling the slaves better. Everything went down hill from there at an accelerated speed. The came up with work performance evaluation based on objectives. If you did not reach your objective, you would get a lower raise. You could sense that someone was panicking somewhere and he was a tight time schedule to realize his agenda. People started to sabotage their work from this moment and it still continues to this day. It is around 1990 that I gave up on work and earth in general.
Heline marcile on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 10:35 am
By year 2000, if you did not have a MBA you could not get promoted. There were an agenda to uniformized the managerial procedures to extract more work from the slaves of earth. A lot of people saw what was going on and they started sabotaging their work place from the inside.
Trembal caroline on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 10:38 am
I think it is around year 2000 that a lot of manufacturing was transferred into China because Chinese were better slaves. It went down hill really fast when they come up with their MBA program. As I like to say, you have already lost the west, but you don’t have the IQ needed to see it. Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die.
karine jean on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 10:45 am
If you have an high IQ, you could see them installing an agenda like the MBA program. You knew that would not end well.
alain leduc on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 10:52 am
If you had an high IQ like mine you could see that by 1990 they had an agenda. They came up with MBA, climate change, promotion of mass migration and diversity, hate speech, beach volleyball and many others. You could feel that some people somewhere were panicking.
Regig lebaume on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 11:22 am
Another thing that is really obvious if you are old enough is that the quality of products went way down. This is for everything you buy. You buy a brand new snow blower and you have to put a bigger o-ring on the carburetor bowl because the original one was too small and leaking.
You buy a brand new sewing machine. you have to change a screw because the orignal screw was too soft. If you know where to look, you know it is the end of earth. They are really good at hiding hyperinflation and natural ressources depletion.
You buy a snowblower and you have to reinforce some plastic part because the original is too weak.
eleian trudeau on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 11:57 am
Kendall Jenner could also be classified as a testosterone enhancer because of the legs. I dont have good memories about them. They are difficult to handle and not really worth it. They make your life more difficult.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FMVKPWKLBU
Welling laporete on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 12:08 pm
The testosterones enhancer in not good at sex. She has limited sexual repertoire. Fox example, she wont do anal sex, she wont do brutal deep throat. I am not sure why they still exist.
Helene marceau on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 12:18 pm
A lot of these fucking remake are better then then original.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeHlvXvG6vA
welling tremblay on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 12:48 pm
The best bitch is the submissive whore that is sexual excited when violently degraded. They are not as pretty as the testosterones enhancer but they will deliver on the sex. They can take a lot of abuse.
alain laporete on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 1:35 pm
The number of love songs that have been written in 1980 lead me to believe that sexual reproduction is not working the way they would like. See the example below.
Waiting for a Girl Like You (Foreigner) | Lexington Lab Band
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgiIFBgJ-lM
I remember this era, it was one love song after another one. My guess is sexual reproduction is not capable of creating high IQ people in a sufficient number. So they are trying to push the birth rate. They know they will lose their slave prison if the birth rate does not increase. They have known that since 1980 in the West. I remember this area of the long. Even classical rock had love songs.
Carl Peladeau on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 1:41 pm
I told you. It started around 1977 where it felt like earth entered and accelerated time vortex. It felt like some people were panicking .
The song above was released 1981.
treime jwuice on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 2:01 pm
I am sorry but I refuse to watch any videos with Jewish people in it including the president of Israel. I will never do that. If there is a Jewish people in the video, I am not watching it. I did not watch any video with Trump and Netanyahu
I refuse to watch any video that has the title Israel in it. This has been my rule for the last 3 years.
Heline marceau on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 2:03 pm
I have been very clear about what I think of the Jews,Israel and people supporting the Jews. Go read my past comments about the Jews.
Yellew trembale on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 2:10 pm
I also refuse to watch any video that has the title gaza in it.
jolene parton on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 2:16 pm
If the command of the US army is transferred to me, I will destroy Israel infrastructures. I will also restart a crusade against the Jews and fertile women.
If you want to offer me the command of the US army you should know that (what I have written above). IF you come to me, make sure that that generals and high ranking officials of the US army agree with what I have written above, otherwise don’t come to me.
opera destry on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 2:28 pm
You know what I mean. I will destroy Israel infrastructure and restart the crusade against the Jews an fertile women. These videos were suggested to me by YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3ETjguV7Xw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0j7UCEP8Mn4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDh1x3hd6xQ
Do you fucking get it now?
water lowly on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 2:31 pm
Do you fucking get it now?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9ZLdOX0HHs
yelloe germaine on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:07 pm
I have seen your fucking message that the French are willing to work with me. I don’t like the French as I see them as communists. I will need a lot of convincing from the French.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWb-vtvGImY
Elaine jenner on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:42 pm
Look at the fucking crap I see on my YouTube page. You guys you should see the crap that is suggested to me by YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRS-y4ll4Ck
ctv news on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:48 pm
This is the kind crap that is suggested to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXWSn8rMeEo
valerie plange on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:50 pm
Some crap I don’t care.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6McOGL1l2k
Yelloe selena on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 3:56 pm
You want to know how a differential works. The have a video for you. You want a video about mathematical integral, they have one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nC6fsNXdcMQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_3mbfchlQE
What about extracting me out of earth instead. I hate earth.
Valie gmail on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:01 pm
You want a video about how to calculate internal stress. They even have a video about mechanical engineering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmfNpmESf1Y
xeno deleare on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:07 pm
You like complex numbers. I never have heard a good explanation about who invented this and why it is working. You accept this a fact and don’t ask too much question from where it coming from.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f079K1f2WQk
You see me, I have an high IQ, the rest of earth population are just losers. Nobody cares about the rest of earth population. you are too stupid.
zero loser on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:10 pm
Nobody cares about the Jews. We all think the Jews are pathetic losers. Only the losers in the media care about the Jews and Israel. You are all losers deserving death.
obama barrack on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:13 pm
Never take the weapon of a warrior like Canada did to me. You never know what you will unleash upon yourself.
zeor heline on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:21 pm
Complex numbers have been invented to solve sinusoidal equations for the electrical distribution network. They are not used anywhere else as far as I know. Nobody understand why it works. Nobody knows.
I have been selected because I have an high IQ. All the rest of earth population is expendable. Keep this comment for historical record. Nobody cares about the fucking jews.
I am not an human like you, I was created.
Parler bing on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:29 pm
Nobody cares about the Jews. Everyone thinks the Jews are losers and should be exterminated. They want someone to explain them how earth is built. I am the only one on earth that have noticed that people neck got longer. Everybody else is just a low IQ robot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9hU4xrhEDs
valerian jean on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 4:33 pm
They might transfer the control of the US army to me just because they want to study my war tactics. They might let kill all the Jews just to see how good I am at war. They might let kill all the fertile women just because I want to do it. isn’t fucking obvious by now.
Jermia lave on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:12 pm
You should see what I see when I drive at night. The red brake lights on cars have two holographic projections, one on the top and one at the bottom. Probably the car in front of me is not real. It takes a while to get use to this.
Bertuan valeria on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:15 pm
I think the eyes curvature is there to hide the holographic projection. As you move forward toward a light source, the holographic projection vanish. I think with a flat cornea you would see all the holographic projection.
We are really getting shafted here.
DEAAAAAAAAAAAAAD GIVEAWAYYY on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:17 pm
I KNEW some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms
kartine lavie on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:17 pm
The only way to deal with this kind of evil is to start killing fertile females. They will understand what we are doing and they will see this as rebellion because it is what it is.
Carolie besset on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:24 pm
What these kind of people you go bloody murdering and it is the only thing they understand. They only understand the language of blood.
Janvier fevrier on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:30 pm
The reason they are talking about peace all the time, it is to stop us from using the language of blood. Start a bloody crusade against fertile women. They will get it. At point we are all going die because of natural ressources depletion, might as well go bloody on them.
wellen caprice on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:32 pm
If earth population is not willing to go bloody on them, earth population deserve to be their slaves.
Xeno zerox on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:37 pm
The only way to win against these guy is a bloody crusade against the Jews and fertile women. This is only language they understand, bloods.
Yeww cpac on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:41 pm
Not a bloody war against Palestinians. This is waste a time. A war against the people they are trying to protect against a crusade: the Jews and fertile women.
You are wasting you time with Palestinians and Ukraine war. They are probably laughing at us.
arline tarline on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:45 pm
Taken a nuclear submarine and sent it to destroy Israel water treatment plant and electrical grid. Otherwise it is a waste of precious time. Everyone hates the Jews anyway. Nobody will cry if we kill all the Jews living on earth.
Narime radine on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:49 pm
The population of earth really deserve to go extinct. You go after the people they try to protect, the Jews and fertile women. You don’t go after the Russians and Palestinians. I am pretty sure they are laughing at us for going after the Palestinians and Russians.
I have always said, this operation is run by losers. Go for the Jews and fertile womens.
Heline marquis on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 7:52 pm
The ones behind the COVID operation are fucking low IQ losers. You deserve to loose this war.
liane diane on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 8:02 pm
Well I tried to help you. Enjoy dying on earth like losers.
Joe alourde on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 8:21 pm
I told you that I am a created being and I am here to see you failed. I tried to help you but you would not listen to me. I told that around 1977 the world entered and accelerated time vortex. I think we are going backward in time not forward.
https://www.discogs.com/release/6026819-Various-1977-The-Best-Year-Of-My-Life
ctv news on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 8:46 pm
What will happen at the end of the time vortex is the question?
Everyone will die, earth will disintegrate and I will back home in my orignal vehicle, not a flesh vehicle. This is my guess.
Ferland dinan on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:18 pm
If you go backward in time, it will bring you back at a point in time where earth was not created. It bring you back home before earth reality was created. I think we going backward in time. Give me some money so I can buy a better car and explore outside of my immediate neighborhood.
Chaline abdul on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:25 pm
If you kill all the fertile women, it is like travelling backward in time where just after the creation of earth but before the creation of human race. If you exterminate the human race completely you go backward in time before the human race was created.
Denise lavaleriede on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:28 pm
If you kill all the trees on earth you also go backward in time, just before the creation of all the trees on earth. You have to kill to go backward in time. This is my theory. But I could also be talking BS.
jean drapeau on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:33 pm
It only work if you have eternal life. You can only go back home if you are an eternal being. If you are not an eternal being you will die if the time move backward.
heli marcille on Wed, 5th Feb 2025 9:40 pm
This could one reason why they were trying to push the birth rate using love songs. If you create new humans being you move forward in time. You can only move forward if you constantly create something new, like a new baby.