It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Water jane on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:28 am
I figured out why the US military will take control of Palestine. It is to spy on Israel. It is to spy on Israel military, air space, water coast. Before an submarine launch an attack, you have to make sure that air space is clear and there is no Israel submarine in the neighborhood. Then you bomb Israel and go deep again. You hide your spying equipment among the ruble of Palestine. It to monitor how successful your war against Israel goes. This is where you would install your short and long distance radar. You also hide your fake media in there. As as the destruction commences, the media will will be able to broadcast images almost right away.
It needs to be real. Otherwise they will know we are trying to fake.
This is preparatory step toward the destruction of Israel. Everyone with military background has probably seen it.
jean latulipe on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:37 am
We go backward in time. This is why there some beautiful structure left intact from the old world. The old world was the future. Because the futur as been destroy, we are moving backward in time. This is why there is no historical record of the past. We are moving backward in time.
Joe laporte on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:41 am
When you move back in time everything gets destroy. I knew we entered and accelerated time vortex around 1980. I can almost feel the time going backward at breath taking speed.
Ctv news on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:43 am
Gaza will be where the US will hide its miliary equipment to spy on Israel. Short and long distance radar.
laoe allow on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:47 am
Only the beings that are truly eternal will live. As I like to say, only the chosen ones will live and witness everything. The rest of the people will be killed as we moved backward in time. The chosen ones are the ones that live eternally.
lola reginal on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:48 am
Oh, let the sun beat down upon my face, with stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
To sit with elders of a gentle race this world has seldom seen.
Who talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.
A traveler of both time and space is someone that has eternal life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
Valeria space on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:56 am
A traveler of both time ans space is a being that has eternal life. It really make sense when you think about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
jean maritime on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:08 am
If you believe that the dinosaurs are real. They would come back as we go back in time and humans will disappear. Only the being with an eternal life will see them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jan5CFWs9ic
lole carlotte on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:09 am
Interesting turn of events.
Jaime presley on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:32 am
I am a traveler of both time and space to be where I have been.
What space are the talking about. Space represents different realities: sexual/procreation reality, war reality, animal hybrid reality and so on.
It is an eternal being that can move through time and through different realities. I am pretty sure that I have travelled to the sexual realm before. I though it was a nice place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
moore ciclade on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:42 am
I will explain in a sloppy manner what are the complex numbers. They are based on radian circle going from 0 to 2pi. The radian circle is used to define a cosinus and sinus function. You add a dimension of time to the radian circle be creating a turning vector. I don’t remember all the details, but this will allow you to solve sinusoidal functions used on the electrical distribution system. The turning vector is a time variable added to the radian circle to create periodical sinusoidal function,
https://upchieve.org/blog/2021/4/18/what-are-radians
Gentyr selon on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:49 am
Everything is about time on this planet. If you look at the math used in engineering, it becomes evident that without time there is no earth or reality.
dy/dt is used a lot in engineering, dt represent time differential. The movie lucy was right about this.
treme jean on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 10:06 am
Fashion show remind me of how a King would choose his next sex toy. Women willing to enter into an ownership contract would parade in front of him. This was the first screening step.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtCCTR5G0pM
GET THAT girl out of that house on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 10:30 am
I KNEW some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms
Lola pute on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 10:35 am
If I remember correctly, finding a King was difficult. Keeping a good King interested in his in doing the job was difficult. Privileges were given to the men willing to accept the jobs to keep them there a long period of time. I think that is the reason for the beautiful castel, beautiful sex toy and other thing I don’t remember. You would put women into ownership contract. This allow the King to have a different women when it wish too. IF a King live a very long life, this could be useful to fight against boredom. This give him access to a infinite supply of young female. That was the purpose of the fashion.
heline regina on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 10:42 am
I don’t remember what happened if a kid was created with one of the women under contract. IF the King did not like the kid, the kid would be killed. There were clauses in the contract regarding this, but I don’t remember what they were.
joe letaxi on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 11:15 am
Certain King would order a purge of women a regular basis. Some King would killed 50% of the women living in their Kingdom. In the past women were considered expendable and of no value. Purge would happen often.
I think this why they came up with this meme of violence against women.
Jarjeme laporete on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 11:36 am
Some Kings would purge up to 90% of the women. All was left was 16 year old and below girl. You kill 90% of the women. Some guy were not fucking around. It is something to see.
jaime presley on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 12:07 pm
What kind of King was I, is the question asked? 90% purge type of King. You keep only the healthy fertile women. I also purged the gay, mentally deficient people, infirme and too old people.
The 10% female left were really well taken care of. They loved that.
karine lapîerre on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 12:14 pm
You put all the female left in some kind of procreation buildings and you use them as procreators. I don’t remember the details but it was done this way. I might be talking BS also. Girls would love that. They felt protected and well taken care of.
Grahe bell on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 12:46 pm
There is long term problems if you purge too much and too often. I don’t remember what they were. You might get some rebellion. I don’t remember. it is best to destroy earth and kill everyone living on it. Sexual reproduction is a failed concept.
Jean laforge on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 1:23 pm
All of these women are too old for procreation. Under 90% purging rule all of them would have been killed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnusryxe7Gs
Obama barack on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 1:30 pm
I don’t have good memories of that part of my life. I just remember that sexual reproduction is a failed concept and we should terminate earth experiment.
Nadie gendron on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 1:37 pm
I cannot attached my emotionally to planet earth and Canada. Canada gun laws have destroyed any ability for me to personally attached myself to Canada. I just have hatred for Canada and earth. This kind of hatred never goes away as it is rooted from the past.
Nadine carron on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 2:09 pm
This is better then the original. Do you hear the high frequency spike, then they move into a low frequency spike. Especially at the beginning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVTXsP68Wvk
Elaind bertrain on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 2:22 pm
At 1:01 they move the whole frequency spectrum for high to low. The bass sound move in and smother everything else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVTXsP68Wvk
Berrin jean on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 2:58 pm
I cannot attached myself emotionally to planet earth, Canada or Québec. Canada gun laws have destroyed any ability for me to personally attached myself to Canada. I just have hatred for Canada, Québec and earth. This kind of hatred never goes away as it is rooted deep from the past. It is best for me to leave and restart from scratch somewhere else. It is best for me to leave the past behind and restart anew somewhere else.
Kkarine alaow on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 3:09 pm
You have know idea the number of women I would kill if is was legal. You have no idea how much I hate women. Nobody confiscate the weapons of a warrior and expect that we will be friend. Canada can go fuck itself.
Grame educ on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:13 pm
All of these women would have been killed under a 90% female purge. I think the 90% was a desperation measure. We kept only the girl under 16 year old for procreation and kill all the other females.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/C8at4PH9q20
Helein jean on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:19 pm
I think we had way better weapons that we currently have on earth. I am unimpressed by the weapons I see on earth. I would need to have access to firearms to test this theory my self. I am not impressed with the weapons on earth.
Jamal Abdul on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 4:51 pm
Judge Dreed weapon is a real weapon. I am really not impressed with your weapons. I hope you can do better then what we have now, because it will not cut it. I remember better weapons.
https://bflix.sh/movie/dredd-03402/
I KNEW some wrong on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:13 pm
GET THAT girl out of that house
ewer potreli on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:30 pm
You guys have no ideas how much earth is a crappy shit hole. Shit ugly women, shit weapons, shit cars, shit houses, shit school, shit weather, shit flesh body that is good for nothing.
lalo regisa on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:35 pm
You have never seen real lethal hand weapons. All you have on earth is crappy weapons. Everything is crappy about this planet.
Joe letaxi on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:49 pm
Nobody takes away the weapons of a warrior. Big mistake did to me. You never insult a warrior like Canada did to me.
alain hebrew on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 5:52 pm
I did not fight past war, just to have a loser nation like Canada take me weapons away.
Ulyse denis on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 6:12 pm
First rule of a warrior, is that you always carry a weapon on you. Who ever take your weapon from you should die. Who should die. Everyone on earth.
Joe lpatuane on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 6:57 pm
Earth weapons are too primitive to be able to do a 90% purge. You will be lucky if you can do a 10% purge. your weapons at too shitty not lethal enough. I want an extraction out of earth. I don’t have to live on earth will losers.
Palstri bertine on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 7:02 pm
I want an extraction out of earth. A king of my quality should not have to live among losers. It is coming, It is not fast enough. I want an immediate extraction out of earth.
WHEN a pretty little white girl on Thu, 6th Feb 2025 8:48 pm
RAN to a black man arms
Raddy regid on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 1:14 am
You lie to me since I am born. And you think I will forgive you for that and work with you. Know you are fucking whore.
Jane palie on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 1:15 am
You lie to me since I am born. And you think I will forgive you for that and work with you. I am talking to you the invisible world.
Fuk you on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 1:28 am
Remember the time when my father change the aluminum wiring in his house for copper. I asked him how the guy was able to do ite without opening the walls. You remember this one. I do, fucking pieces of shit. Remember a couple of days after that when my father was next to the electrical box pretending he had fix a wire too short. You pieces of shit I will kill you for what you did to me and how you lie to me since I am born and made my life miserable. You know that I know now. You remember the pile of Erotic magazines I found in the wood out of nowhere when I was young. You thought I was not showing enough interest toward women and sex. I am going to kill you all fucking pieces of shit.
If you think I will work after you after what you did to me and how you lie to me, you have another thing coming. Fucking piece shit.
Joe letaxi on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 1:34 am
I have always deeply hated women and Jews. I think both deserve total extermination.
jaime presley on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 2:10 am
I was really slow on the sex side. I learned about girl swallowing sperm in high school grade 3 or 4. There were these big tables in arts classes where people would sit together.
One day, a girl next to me said: it tastes like salt. Someone ask the girl what tastes like salt. The girl answered sperm tastes like salt.
This is where I heard for the first time about sperm swallowing. The fucking obsession with sex.
Alain lapiere on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 2:18 am
I watch some of these when I was younger. Remember her changing into a animal. I actually thought she was pretty and fuckable back then.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKiIYvWIUj0
Maybe it is true what we see in the video.
SHE SIMPLY have to get out on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 8:27 am
GET THAT girl out of that house
Heline carlene on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 8:44 am
For me there is only 2 types of women, the fuckable ones and the unfuckable ones. The unfuckable ones should be killed. For me, there is no such thing as an intelligent women, a creative women. All women are stupid, useless, worthless piece of crap. Women are only good as sex toy. All women are expendable in case of emergency, men are not expendable. In case of emergency killing all women would be something that I would seriously consider.
forbes breaking on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 9:11 am
Any female over the age of 25 is considered unfuckable and should be killed. Earth population should made of only men and women under the age 25 year old.
Valerie welling on Fri, 7th Feb 2025 9:58 am
Earth is unmanageable. I am pretty sure we gave up on earth. The chosen ones will be extracted and earth will be destroyed. I have completely emotionally detached myself from earth and I have no emotional attachements of any from toward earth. I want earth to die and people living on it to die also.