It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
jean latuque on Sat, 8th Feb 2025 2:35 pm
I hate this fucking planet. I dont want to be here at all. I am a fucking prisoner.
hekine valeria on Sat, 8th Feb 2025 2:39 pm
This is how you choose a fuck toy for an ownership contract. This is the first step.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcNa6ocv2ek
Roy obersion on Sat, 8th Feb 2025 7:37 pm
I told you sexual reproduction does not work. It is a total failure and cannot create enough high IQ people to keep earth civilisation. They have been trying really hard to boost the birth rate and it is not working. See 1:41 the girl undressing herself. Earth is a gigantic failure in every aspect you can think of.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHXT2E1iy50
Obama elain on Sat, 8th Feb 2025 7:43 pm
Sexual reproduction is not working.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5msgN4QEnA
chosen one on Sat, 8th Feb 2025 7:54 pm
Play at speed 0.25. Stop at 3:41 she does a face sitting and he is sucking her vagina. You can only see it at speed 0.25. Sexual reproduction does not work, they know men have stopped dating women and they went their own way alone. They know the will loser earth civilization eventually. Only the chosen ones will live
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p3rI_64u7M
JOe letaie on Sat, 8th Feb 2025 8:09 pm
I will stop talking about the topic of sexual reproduction not working. I think I gave enough examples. Go read the BDSM literature, this will give you and idea how the sexual realm is built. I will stop talking about this. I just fucking don’t care about earth anymore. The Canadian firearms laws have been successful at killing my warrior spirit. Further away you are from weapons, faster the warrior spirit die. You are on your own, I am not coming to help you.
Joe laporte on Sun, 9th Feb 2025 10:01 am
Music The Cave Dwellers – White Rabbit
Better then original one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd7D2iXHnWs
Jeane putanea on Sun, 9th Feb 2025 3:25 pm
I knew it. BDSM has something call an ownership contract.
https://bdsmcafe.com/resources/bdsm-contracts-checklists/sample-contract-100-ownership/
Jean marcotte on Mon, 10th Feb 2025 7:37 am
The big dildo is a reference about extreme and brutal anal destruction some men would do on a women. It is made to establish who is the dominant during the sex. If the women welcomes it, it makes you dominant and create a dominant male. It is quite surprising how they love it and how well they can take extreme anal abuse. It is another way to create a warrior using sex.
I am pretty sure sex procreation is not working the way they thought it would be, this is why you see shit like this on TV. Sexual reproduction is a failed concept and in real life women are disgusting. The vagina smells bad and women smell bad. They failed in designing an sexually attractive women. They know it is the end for earth civilisation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJEBgB3j9eo
Jead lapoort on Mon, 10th Feb 2025 7:46 am
I told you, they are just fucking low IQ losers. They are even not good at designing a sexual attractive women. They are just fucking loser. Everything they touch, they destroy. the bible mentionne that.
Jean laporte on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 7:34 am
The warrior builder. Some could take a lot more abuse then this.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/life-under-lomps-rule-part-3-xhaPLpd
Elain marcille on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 7:39 am
Some could take a lot of pain and abuse. The warrior builder. Some of these bitches could keep a man full erected for a long period of time.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/extreme-pierced-pussy-and-pumped-clit-kinkycore-xhF3pWZ
Ulysee Jamal on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 8:03 am
It is a fucking porno clip and they found a way to put dying trees in it.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/public-cbt-xhIJcwp
Jean Michel on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 8:11 am
Some of these bitches did not seem like real human.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/needles-in-the-pussylips-of-sklavin-z-7136613
You can keep a man erected for a long time with shit like this.
Ulysee selena on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 8:13 am
Look a pregnant women.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/fill-her-up-jeby-queensnake-com-queensect-com-9767006
Yelloe laforge on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 2:51 pm
I told you that we can kill everyone on earth and repopulate using the sexual realm and a couple of human hybrid males with an upgraded bodies.
Marth Steward on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 3:25 pm
The only way to fix the past: Jews, multiracial interbreeding, mentally retarded population, ugly people, low quality flesh body is to kill everyone and repopulate using improved females and males. Anything else is a waste of time. I think it is obvious.
Trump is just a fucking IQ losers. We don’t want him, or his family (Jews) among us.
Jean larousse on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 3:26 pm
Trump is just a fucking low IQ losers. We don’t want him, or his family (Jews) among us.
Joe qellean on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 5:21 pm
There is no plan to come to rescue earth, There is no plan where help would be given to earth to help stop the flow of immigrants consuming natural resources. You are on your own. Only the chosen ones will be saved and moved into an improved hybrid body.
Jeaim presley on Thu, 13th Feb 2025 11:18 pm
I am not coming to help Canada, US or earth. You are on your own. I am not working in anyway toward saving earth that is a matrix of solid hold together by gravity and friction and only modifiable by heat. I am not spending my precious time and energy at trying to save something as primitive as earth reality. A man of my talent should not be living on earth and should have been extracted out of earth a long time. You are on your own.
Every Rank in the US Army Explained in 19 Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU4TIgi_dyU
I am not going to watch the video above, it is a waste of my precious time.
Joe letazi on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 4:53 pm
They have a fascination with the exponential curve. See at 4:38 another exponential curve..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoHOVUKOc0M
Joe Rogerg on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 5:07 pm
The reason why they are talking about peace and war is to discourage us from using war against them. It is a way for them to manipulate us.
It goes a bit like this. Don’t start a war against the immigrants, we had multiple wars in the past and war brings only pain and misery. Instead of starting a war against the immigrants, it is better to dialog with them so we can all reach a decision that is beneficial for all. It is a manipulation technic to stop us from using the army against them.
Graemahe Belle on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 5:11 pm
Everything is about manipulating us to accept something that normally we would not accept.
Heline Marceau on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 5:18 pm
They are obviously afraid of the Whites men. They came up with the holocaust as a way to control Whites men and to stop them from using war as a form a rebellion. It is a way to control Whites men anger and contain Whites men anger, so we don’t use war against them.
Jea receahl on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 5:27 pm
I suspect Russian history is a lie. They seem also to be really afraid of the Russians. The Russians fucked them over really good in the past.
alaine lapore on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 7:53 pm
50:04 look at how many buttons he has in front of him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqDj7o19CWw
Probably closed to 100. You need an high IQ to know what all these buttons are doing. You cannot run an army using low IQ people. They know sexual reproduction is not working and not creating enough high IQ to keep earth civilization alive. They as I know that eventually everyone on earth will die. Only the chosen ones will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clYwX8Z43zg
Ian lauto on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 8:09 pm
They know as I know that the current flesh body designed is garbage. We reached the maximum of what can be done using this crappy flesh body.
A hybrid flesh body is needed with more long term memory, ability to do advanced math mentally, and so on. It is over for earth and its population. It is time to move on to something else.
Qurane Jean on Fri, 14th Feb 2025 8:19 pm
USA does not enough high IQ people to run an army. The army is shrinking in size in proportion to the high IQ people available. It is over for earth civilisation. The ship are too complex and people don’t have the IQ needed to match this complexity. The West is dead, you just don’t have the IQ needed to see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGDyS_JJ-MA
Why Retire a 2-Year Old Warship?
Karine perlance on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 11:09 am
the crew goes to work as a team. We are in a prison and we are used as slave labor to build a civilisation for them. See 6:53.
This is video teaching us how to be good slaves and how to behave during work: the crew goes to work as a team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhcsh_J9Lsg
6:30 The entire crew at the landing must work together
6:53 the crew goes to work as a team
The repeat the same message twice with different words. This is called obedience training or slave training.
Reala on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 11:16 am
Lyric revolution from The Beatles song.
You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it’s evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don’t you know that you can count me out
They are afraid that we could revole and destroy essential infrastructures such as electrical grid, water treatment plants and internet network. I told you, we are slaves being used by them to build a civilization for them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGLGzRXY5Bw
Lolo yellow on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 11:25 am
They are particularly afraid of Whites men like me. Men that are single, never married, never had kids, both parents are dead and is a single children with no brothers or sisters. They understand what kind of destruction men like me are capable because we have no emotional attachement toward earth or this civilisation. They is why they like their politicians married with kids.
they understand that a man like me will bomb Israel infrastructures just because I can. They understand the real damage a man like me can do. They understand also that we are lightly suicidal and don’t mind dying.
Heline reginal on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 11:47 am
They understand that men like me work on pure hatred. What does it means pure hatred. I don’t need a logical reason to bomb Israel because I work on pure hatred as a logical decision making process.
Same thing with the Canadian firearms laws. I could destroy Canada just because of hatred I have for its firearms laws.
People have no idea what someone can achieve using pure hatred.
Matrin mikes on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 12:14 pm
There is a reason why I was selected. I am a man that is capable of pure hatred. I can base all my decisions on pure hatred and stay in this mode of pure hatred for a long time.
It is not an accident if I was selected.
Grahim bell on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 4:23 pm
Some of you, might want to start considering that I am not here on earth to help you, I am here to kill everyone on earth. I am here because I can function on pure hatred for a long time. I am here because I can make decision based hate. I am the cleaner of reality: I am here to kill everyone living on earth. I am here to hate all of you equally.
Jeamin preslyep on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 4:28 pm
The treasures of darkness will be given to me. Go read the bible. What are the treasure of darkness: its financial system, the people living on earth, its militaries armies, the earth supply chain. I will use these treasure to kill all of you.
Isaiah 45:3
I will give you hidden treasures, riches stored in secret places, so that you may know that I am the LORD, the God of Israel, who summons you by name.
You are going to get it so good.
Farine de blé on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 5:27 pm
I will give you hidden treasures,
riches stored in secret places,
so that you may know that I am the Lord,
the God of Israel, who summons you by name.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Isaiah%2045:3&version=NIV
What are these treasures: Ford, GM, Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, US military, Canada military, earth natural resources, all the people inhabiting earth, government of Canada, US government, Québec government, Oceans, lakes, animals, US stock market, NASDAQ, ..
All of these we belong to me for my personal entertainment.
Jean riche on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 5:33 pm
And I will give you treasures hidden in the darkness— secret riches. I will do this so you may know that I am the LORD, the God of Israel, the one who calls you by name.
https://biblehub.com/isaiah/45-3.htm
What is hidden in the darkness, earth and everything living on earth.
treasure hidden: Ford, GM, Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, US military, Canada military, earth natural resources, all the people inhabiting earth, government of Canada, US government, Québec government, Oceans, lakes, animals, US stock market, NASDAQ, ..
in the darkness: planet earth is the darkness and everything on it is also the darkness.
Jeamin presley on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 6:05 pm
This little piece of shit of DeSantis would be alive long as soon as I take control of the whole earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQdXJb79E8k
Regit lavaume on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 6:07 pm
This little piece of shit of DeSantis won’t be alive long as soon as I take control of the whole earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQdXJb79E8k
SRY IM being emotional on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 6:18 pm
WE ATE RIIIIBBBBBSSS with this d00d
I CANT HUG every cats on Sat, 15th Feb 2025 8:00 pm
SRY IM being emotional
SRY IM being emotional on Sun, 16th Feb 2025 9:22 am
ITS BEGINNING to look like a triple rainbow ZOMFG so intense OOOHHHHHHHHH GOOOODDDD OHHHH
SRY IM being emotional on Sun, 16th Feb 2025 3:30 pm
I WANT to hug all cats but I can’t hug all cats.
I appoint elite supertard president eee and all registered supertards supertard. their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies
SRY IM being emotional I WANT to hug all cats on Mon, 17th Feb 2025 8:19 am
BUT I can’t hug all cats.
I appoint elite supertard president eee and all registered supertards supertard. their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies
SRY IM being emotional I WANT to hug all cats on Mon, 17th Feb 2025 11:02 am
BUT I can’t hug all cats.
I appoint all registered elite supertard presidents supertards. their title is ‘the lover’ of supremacist muzzies
Shazia Numan on Tue, 18th Feb 2025 4:43 am
Shazia Nauman is a Multan-based fashion brand specializing in hand-embroidered bridal, formal, and semi-formal wear, crafted with exquisite detail and high-quality fabrics.
Website: https://shazianauman.com/
Pierre faladeau on Tue, 18th Feb 2025 11:46 pm
I told you that women are failed creation and most men can now see what women really are: losers with a low IQ. There is a reason why there is a low birth rate, high IQ men refuse to procreate with women who are basically losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE05zuKJtAE
51:47 forward. It is Falardeau telling us that women are losers. All of us high IQ men already knew that. Earth is just a gigantic failure starting with women and sexual procreation. Only the chose ones will live and everyone one else on earth will die.
Falardeau understood that earth is a gigantic failure. I am pretty sure he was a time traveler
JOe letezix on Tue, 18th Feb 2025 11:57 pm
You should know by now if you are a chosen one, just be looking how you skin in changing from Yellow to some kind of Whites cristal color. You should know by now if you are a eternal one or a time traveller.
Heline regilan on Wed, 19th Feb 2025 12:02 am
I expect to 5 or 6 people the number of chosen ones on earth. 5 of 6 will get a new body and a new life. Everyone else on earth will be killed.
Jean lapute on Wed, 19th Feb 2025 12:07 am
Falardeau has all the characteristics of time traveller, high IQ, deep understanding of how earth works. He probably travelled a lot of dimensions before coming on earth. Go studies his movies, if you have an high IQ you should understand why I am saying this.