It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
alain laforege on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 4:11 pm
I am not a fan of sexual realities and I hate them. But I do understand the mechanics of it. I am more a fan of mathematical and conception realities.
Sexual BDSM forums have a lot of info about sexual domination. You will find all kind of discussion such as : Is a man lick the asshole of a woman an act of submission. Will it destroys the relation of dominant man submissive women. You will find a lot of good info in these forum. Are these practices actual done in real life, I don’t know. Then you will realize you don’t know much about sex. There is good explanations about the theorical concepts of submission and dominance. I don’t have any website links, it is not a topic I care much about. I just know the mechanics of it for some unknow reasons to me.
I am not a fan of sexual realities and I would prefer to avoid them if I can.
alain laporete on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 8:27 pm
They tried to design a reality based on sexual reproduction as a way to create slaves to do the hard manual labor. Sexual reproduction is not happening at the needed rate to keep the earth slaves labor prison alive. They failed at designing the female. They basically failed. The human female is too ugly, her vagina is ugly and smelly, she has no personality, she has an overinflated ego. They need an upgraded female but some how there are no able to create one. I told you they are fucking losers
Claudia chevrils on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 9:07 pm
This shit is funny as fuck. Look at the ugly bitch at 0:40. Earth is starting to get entertaining now. C’est trop drole criss de tabernacle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrRtpPYdql0
alaine laporete on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 9:57 pm
He is also a fat guy. Nothing is more dangerous then a fat guy in a fit of rage. Why do you think they have feminized men inside earth realm. Because fat guys are dangerous in many ways.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSljO3DqDDU
gethrude lamachne on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 10:06 pm
They hate fat men. Look all skinny people. they are afraid of fat men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwELr8ir9qM
alane lapoteds on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 10:21 pm
they always hated fat man. they always said that being fat was unhealthy while being skinny and weak was health. I have never heard them tell something nice about fat man.
jone alporee on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 10:52 pm
A wise man life is based around fuck You. So fuck you Canada, Québec and the West. Someone know the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
the US is bases around fuck you, you are a king you have an army.
A King will be installed to rule of the US. He is telling us straight to our face at 0:46
alain leduc on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 11:33 pm
I will tell you what I saw. I was outside smoking a cigarette when an airplane flew over my head. This is what I saw.
|
–*–
/|\
I saw 5 ray of lights going into the centrer of the white light of the airplane. Never a dull in my fucking life.
Josepe facal on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 11:34 pm
Graphic was wrong
I will tell you what I saw. I was outside smoking a cigarette when an airplane flew over my head. This is what I saw.
|
–*–
/|\
I saw 5 ray of lights going into the centrer of the white light of the airplane. Never a dull in my fucking life.
josephine lapoca on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 11:35 pm
The top bar goes on top of the star. It does not come out right for some reason. The star is the white light.
Jerome bertrand on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 12:10 am
I will tell you my theory. We live in an underground cave, this is why earth is so humid.
On top of the cave, there is one holographic projector, on the floor of the cave there is 3 holographic projectors, one holographic project on right of the cave and one holographic projector on the left of the cave.
On the top of the cave there are antennas to simulate GPS satellites.
Johanne laporte on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 8:01 am
There is 2 theories of sex on earth. The Jewish concept of sex, where every sexual act is an act of rape. And there is the BDSM concepts of sex, where sex is fun and it is something that should be explored to its full potential.
Earth is currently managed with the Jewish theory of sex (also called feminism), where everything sexual is a rape.
alain lapore on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 8:29 am
The Jewish race will be genocide and removed out the face of the earth.
alaine ldoe on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:01 am
All the staff working for the EPA will be killed on charge of high treason. Same with the FDA and ATF. Politicians is a Israel citizenship will also be killed with their family.
joroe lacourge on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:02 am
Politicians with an Israel citizenship will also be killed with their family.
joelapoe arine on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:06 am
united nations build in NYC will be destroyed and the high level staff killed.
alain laforest on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:08 am
united nations building in NYC will be destroyed and the secretary-general staff will be killed.
jerohe laposte on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:11 am
The staff working for SPLC will be killed for high treasons also, same with AIPAC members.
France leteourne on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:19 am
Apparently earth is only a simulation. Apparently there is no such thing as long neck people. Apparently the medical establishments of earth are all blind and see nothing wrong with people neck getting longer over a period of 4 years. . I am not killing anybody, I am just killing for CGI beings. So let the massacre begin.
katrine latouffed on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:25 am
Faster I fix this shit, faster I can get back my old life back.
jules possoinue on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:27 am
Look at the title of this song:
Beyond the Realms of Death
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtWJoIUifQI
I am just killing people that are already dead. I am not doing anything wrong according to this song.
alaine delong on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 1:00 pm
I never said that I will be your King. I hate Canada, Québec and the West too much. I cannot develop an emotion attachement to Canada because of Canadian firearms laws. This will become a big issue down the road. Canada firearms laws is a red line that should have never been crossed. Retribution will be given just for that.
I wise man life is based around fuck you.
fortress of solitude. Go fuck yourself and die.
joe laporete on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 1:04 pm
Notice how he says it is your fucking fortress of solitude. Who ever wrote this part of the movie understand really well my psychological profile.See 0:13 nobody takes my firearms away from me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
alain delone on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 1:19 pm
Trump is also sabotaging himself. On top of that is sabotaging the US political system from the inside by not using the White House as his personal residence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpoNQPa8Z_k
You will never read that in the main street media.
jone laporete on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 1:37 pm
Trump is also sabotaging himself. On top of that is sabotaging the US political system from the inside by not using the White House as his personal residence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpoNQPa8Z_k
I expect that think tank, even the alternative media to not talk about that and still pushing the narrative that democracy works and we have real freedom. I expect everyone to be silent about it including all of the internet. The same way that everhone on earth does not dare to mention that people neck got longer.
claime rule on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 1:59 pm
Listen to this shit. They are still pushing climate change. Notice they are not hiding the fact that they are propagandizing people by using the word teaching.
CFR 11/19 Higher Education Webinar: Teaching Climate Change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvtLs7BgxY8
ean latulipe on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 2:02 pm
Six Dead As Record Snowfall Hits South Korea; Farmers In Northern China Struggle During Record Cold/Snow; Harsh Chill Grips India; Canada At -40.6C, Greenland Sees -56.3C; + America’s Arctic Outbreak
Listen to this shit. They are still pushing climate change. Notice they are not hiding the fact that they are propagandizing people by using the word teaching.
CFR 11/19 Higher Education Webinar: Teaching Climate Change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvtLs7BgxY8
alaid dtrudeaul on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 2:10 pm
Collaborative Communities for Energy Justice
Just look at the fucking title of the video above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpS6O851Y_o
There is 26 views and 0 comments on the video. These people are complet losers. They still believe their own BS.
joe plante on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 2:14 pm
Calling the invisible world, I need emergency evacuation, I am surrounded by mentally heavily retarded people and my mental health is rapidly degrading. I demand emergency evacuation out of earth as soon as possible.
alain lapote on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 3:11 pm
I remember some of this BDSM crap. I don’t know if it really practice in real life. They have something call slave training in BDSM. You basically teach your sex slave how to pleasure you. One aspect of this training is called slave positions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-KKGnShOw0
janice open on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 3:31 pm
Some more submissive crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ru6yEf4Qbfc
alaine laputel on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 3:43 pm
This is the last video. I am not convince that a lot of people are practicing that in real life. A lot of theses submissive dominant BDSM concepts could have been used in the creation of earth the power structure. You will have to investigate that yourself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUyWAlEr-dw
jaone lapore on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 3:52 pm
I am not a fan of sexual reality. I kind of them including women. After all, it is because of women that the Canadian firearms laws were created. it is because of women that I cannot carry an handgun on me without a license. I actually deeply hate women and I find them useless.
jane lapotete on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 3:56 pm
I will never forget that I was denied personal protection using a handgun because of Canada and Women. I will never forget what has been done to me.
laind leodl on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 4:05 pm
I needed a gun for temporary psychological support and I was left there alone without any help on my own as usual. I will not forget that.
janeie gunnmaj on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 4:09 pm
I will retaliate against women for the creation of Canada handguns laws. This story of Canada handguns laws is far from over as far as I am concerned
karion laverion on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 4:40 pm
I was outside smoking cigarettes. I looked at polar star that is the brightest one I think. I counted 12 rays of lights. 6 coming from the ground, 4 coming from the sky, 2 on each side, left and right.
I look like a cone a light coming from the top and bottom. I will kill women for taking away my guns from me.
kaime mualne on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 4:46 pm
It feels like a bunch of weak rays of lights intersecting together at one precise location t generating the brightness needed to create a bright star.
catherien lalonde on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 4:48 pm
This is the last video. I am not convince that a lot of people are practicing that in real life. A lot of theses submissive dominant BDSM concepts could have been used in the creation of earth the power structure. You will have to investigate that yourself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUyWAlEr-dw
Listen to this fucking bitch carefully. She dominating her husband from a position of submission. Exactly like we have on earth where women control earth using the victimhood card.
Chanta dupuis on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 4:53 pm
It work exactly like a firework but it is the inverse. With a firework, a big light create small rays of lights. Stars in the sky are create using small rays of light to create a big bright light.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2iE04Najx7I
lalo Helena on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:03 pm
try it with flash lights in the dark. point all the flash lights at the same location. you will get a bright light from smaller light.
lola lapeine on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:05 pm
The sun is probably created the same but instead they are using heat and light rays together.
jonny lapote on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:10 pm
After all what is an IR remote control. A heat signal from the remote IR to the IR receiver. I guess you could do the same thing for the sun but a bigger scale. We live in a cave a the cave is heated with IR heat.
https://www.iqsdirectory.com/articles/infrared-heater.html
Karime abulalk on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:19 pm
In fact the Arab mens are controlled by their women. Arab women in position of submission are controlling the dominant Arab men. Simple principle different tactic.
lalopin latuile on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:21 pm
This is how black and white tv are working. You are using small rays of light to create brighter light spots. Look at top of her hairs, the bright spot of lights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIr6_aVuOKo
Jone lapute on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:24 pm
I told you that women love to be sodomized. I think they love sodomy more then vaginal sex.
Marie Josée Neuville par derriere ou par devant
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEI5wRzI4cc
Cathrine laplate on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:30 pm
Look how much women worship their butt crack or asshole if you wish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hehXACinAs
kaine lalonde on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:35 pm
I have a theory about women, I was never able to verify it because I don’t like sex enough. Women love being brutally anally rape. I believe it is their biggest sexual fantasy.
kainre laplte on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:41 pm
I have also another sexual theory but I was never able to verify it. No matter how much you sexually degrade a women, it is never good enough. You can never please her desire for sexual degradation, she always wants more.
Only dominant men are strong enough to degrade sexually a women. It is a female test to see how much of a dominant male you are. More you degrade her sexually, more dominant and confident in yourself you are as a dominate male. I think this is how she feels about it.
I fucking hate sexual reality.
kaine laporete on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:47 pm
The rape laws are there to stop the normale power play inside a relationship, women being submissive and man dominant. It is to stop the installation of a patriarchal form of governance on earth using female sexual rape.