It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle croteux on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 4:53 pm
I will get back my right to carry a handgun on me without a license. I will kill all the population of earth to get back my right to carry an handgun on me without a license. I am dismantling your financial and legal system just because of your handguns laws. Think about how stupid earth look to the invisible world. Not courageous enough to abolish the firearms laws. Do you know how stupid your look to invisible beings living outside of earth.
alain lapieere on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 5:01 pm
What do you these invisible beings living outside of earth will write down in their history book about earth.
Something like earth was populated with heavily mentally retarded peoples that were not courageous enough to abolish some firearms are laws, so there were execute because of some firearms laws.
alain delon on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 9:38 pm
It is even worst then that. The cabal is not stopping me and the people controlling the earth above the cabal are not stopping me. It means that the people controlling earth from the superior hierarchical levels (the cabal and above) want earth population dead. Don’t you understand how many people of power hate what earth has become and want the population of earth dead.
alain george on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 9:43 pm
Basically, everyone controlling the earth from the superior hierarchical levels, above the cabal, approve what I am doing to earth. Do you understand what is really happening here.
joe lafortune on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 9:57 pm
Even the Canadian service secret are on my side. Nobody came to ask me questions about all the death threats I made toward Canadian politicians.
joe laporte on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 10:00 pm
When the times come, the Canadian secret service forces will bring to me the Canadians politicians that I wish to personally execute. Think about that.
allan laporte on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 10:40 pm
only in thailand you will see something like this at 1:24. thailand is under divine protection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me7AKtkh1us
Jean laflutel on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 10:50 pm
I told you that there is a sexual realm attached to earth that can be used to repopulate earth. Just look at Thailand Pattaya to see an example of that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me7AKtkh1us
alain proche on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 11:05 pm
first I will kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws. If we need to rebuild a human population will use the sexual realm. First I will put the gun issue behind me be killing all the population of earth.
stephone delatuque on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 11:40 pm
Very impressive. The sexual realm has been updated and improved. You can see her vaginal bulge at 1:02.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV3iPU1IaUY
Justint trudeaul on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 1:42 am
Do you want to know why people are stealing Honda CR-V cars. There is a replacement part shortage because the engine is unreliable. You supply chain is collapsing right in front your your eyes, but you don’t have the IQ needed to see it with your own eyes. People are stealing these cars and sell the parts.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2022,cr-v,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3450700,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2022,cr-v,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3450700,engine,conversion+/+lower+gasket+set,10424
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2020,cr-v,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3445433,engine,engine+kit+gasket+set,10392
It is the end of earth, I have won against earth and communists.
I am killing all the trees of earth while as the same time same earth supply chain is shutting down. Everyone on earth will die as I made sure of that by ordering the death of all the trees on earth. All of this because of Canada firearms laws.
alain deput on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 1:48 am
I am doing all this to make sure that in the history books of earth, it will be written that everyone on earth was killed because of Canada firearms. It will be written in history books of earth that this planet was populate with heavily mentally retarded people and the GOD’s had no choice but to kill everyone. I will be written about earth that everyone on earth was killed because of the lack of courage of the Canadian politicians. make no mistake, this invisible world is recording and documenting everything that is happening right now.
Jonahe laprise on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:01 am
Earth is a reality keep alive using sexual reproduction. It seems you don’t understand what sexual reproduction is. If you understood what sexual reproduction is and why women was designed the way she is, you would have never allowed the creation of feminism, rape laws and divorce courts. I guess your goal was to kill all the population of earth by creating feminism.
alain lapote on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:23 am
If you fully understood the human sexual reproduction process and the female ego problem that it creates by having male sexually worshipping the female body to get a ejaculation and reproduction going, you would have never allowed the creation of feminism, rape laws and divorce courts. I guess your goal was to kill all the population of earth by creating feminism.
You are just fucking mentally retarded losers.
alaind jonas on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:30 am
If you feminized men, you will also feminized their ego and you end up with a narcissist selfish civilisation, exactly like we see now. You are just fucking loser and I will kill of you because of Canada firearms laws. You really deserver to die all of you.
alain demarke on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:38 am
I blame Europe and Jews for all the problems of the world. I am in favor of full retaliation against Europe, Israel and the Jews.
lyndia claore on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:50 am
Sexual reproduction does not work, It always ends with total chaos and destruction. It is a failed system so are women.
alain larochere on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:59 am
You are currently witnessing the end phase of a reality based on sexual reproduction. You are witnessing the narcissistic phase where the female ego has polluted the whole reality or civilization if you which. This is the last phase before the dead of everyone. The first phase of this experiment happen in 1967 with the creation of conseil du status de de la femme. This world wide experiment is almost over.
https://csf.gouv.qc.ca/le-conseil/historique-et-presidentes/
alan djelon on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 8:30 am
Why do you think every politicians has a nice hair cut, it represent the female ego that has populated the whole power structure of the earth.
alan depuit on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 9:00 am
It is because of earth population submissive attitude that I cannot carry an handgun on me. Look there fucking loser obeying and humiliate themselves at the airport security checkout. Look at these fucking coward going. They will do anything for protection and safety including giving away my right to carry an handgun on me without a license.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZApbbjAiV0A
alain leprot on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 9:29 am
You have to love this one, where the black clothing accessoire is pointing directly are her vagina. They are even not trying to be subtile about it. See at 0:07.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS-augE9jNU
alain deport on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 9:42 am
See at 0:16 her hair style. It is perfect and represent narcissism and ego. The female ego has polluted the whole earth realm this is why everyone on earth will killed except the chosen ones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWJEwPF9b90
jean porta on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 9:51 am
This realm is completely polluted with female ego and is unusable. A reset is needed.
janine trembaly on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 10:00 am
This is from the past:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pUSfrb6ELs
This is from the present:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbCnsatce3M
Same female ego energy associated with the sexual reproduction process that demand that women worship their body. Sexual reproduction always lead to the dead of everyone.
regis lapnate on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 10:33 am
Look at the lower part of her costume. It is shape like an arrow and its pointing directly toward her vagina. This is the kind of manipulative crap you have to do if you run a reality based of sexual reproduction. You have to find way to provoke sexual reproduction if you want to keep your reality alive. See at 0:39
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Myl7H0vhrpk
jane latulipe on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 11:21 am
If you run a sexual reality where you enslave the population to do the hard manual labor for you, you have to make sure that a new supply a slave is produced to maintain the reality. You have to make sure that sexual reproduction happen. This is why the invented the beach volleyball with almost naked women, it too make sure that enough slaves will be produced to keep the reality alive.
isabelle lafleur on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 11:30 am
I bought some cigarettes. I can confirm that all the conifers trees in my neighborhood are dying. I have seen it with my own eyes. I told you that I would everyone on earth because of canada firearms laws. I told you that I would retaliate against earth just to get my right to carry a handgun on me without a license.
I want to see what you will do now, to get your financial and justice system alive without paper to write laws contracts on it.
joe lafite on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 11:36 am
I need money to buy a better car so I can go explore outside my neighborhood to see how bad is the trees situation.
john laporte on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 11:38 am
This is why they created love songs to manipulate men into sexual reproduction to keep this reality alive.
Isale laflure on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 11:44 am
There is clearly a tentative using porn to boost sexual reproduction rate. The number of sexual fantasies has exploded since 2005. Shit like sperm worshipping, ass working, pegging, piss play, mixed wrestling, ureteral sounding, whipping, vagina torture and penis torture, deep throat, heavy deep throat, facial sperm ejaculation are now common sexual fantasies in the porn realm.
karine marceu on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 11:46 am
I lost a tuque and it is bothering me for no good reasons. I hate losing stuff.
germeia laforest on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 11:57 am
Sexual reproduction never work on a long term basis. I thought that was common knowledge. Female ego needed to keep sexual reproduction alive always pollute the whole realm with female ego leading to total destruction and chaos.
I thought that was common knowledge and well understood.
jiean latune on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 12:16 pm
I really thought that some of you had a better understanding of the sexual reproduction process. You sound like totally retarded people to me. How can you have so much power and be so mentally retarded.
melanie trump on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 12:37 pm
Here we go again. The invisible brain surgery has begun. It feels like someone is doing some brain surgery on me. Fucking hate that. I will live and be transferred into high level of realm of divinity, you will all stay here and die like losers you all are..
Isabelle lapute on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 1:05 pm
I remember when they first introduce the female beach volleyball. I thought back then that it is was funny that all women in that sport had no breast at all and had mostly flat ass. All of them where really tall. They did not look humans at all. They did not have any vaginal forms or bulge. I remember this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dif_HBPkj-c
Ludock gabrile on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 1:12 pm
Usually the first thing a man will look when a women is in bikini, it was kind of vaginal forms she has. The number of women wearing legging without any vaginal forms is amazing.
alain labrosse on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 1:34 pm
How many women in bikini have vaginal forms in the video below, none. They are just fake CGI images.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hehXACinAs
When they started the female tight legging fashion trends, I was expecting to be in permanent erection. What a fucking rip off.
There were nothing there. Even the song the Look from roxette is mentionning in the song lyric.
She was a juvenile scam. Meaning she had no vaginas.
Walking like a man
Hitting like a hammer, she’s a juvenile scam
Never was a quitter
Tasty like a raindrop
She’s got the look
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlVI7ZNiFlI
Catherine leduc on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 1:47 pm
Again fucking women with no vaginal forms and with perfectly shave vaginas with no hairs. What a fucking rip off. You are trying to get an erection and you see nothing down there to get your erection going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrEN6Z6pWcg
alain lapointe on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:09 pm
Eventually a King will appointed to rule over all of you, and I will come and kill you and your family. You know who you are.
stephanie laporte on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:10 pm
I made a mistake.Eventually a King will appointed to rule over all of you, and HE will come and kill you and your family. You know who you are.
cyril laplate on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:14 pm
You made a big mistake to disarm the population with restrictive firearms laws. The population won’t be there to help because the population has been disarmed. You always arm the population so you have a backup against internal rebellion. You are so fucking stupid.
alaine alflaime on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:19 pm
you are going to be slaughtered like the fucking useless pigs that you are. Never disarm the population, it your safety net against internal rebellion.
stephanie dumont on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:27 pm
Because you disarm the population, you are incapable of forming rapide militia groups to protect you against internal rebellion. Fuck you are so fucking stupid .
alain laporte on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 2:52 pm
Some people make the mistake to think that fat men are not dangerous or physically strong. I disagree on this one. There is nothing more dangerous than a fat when he is anger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtTUsOKjWyQ
alain leduc on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:02 pm
Some of you skinny men with no fat are no match against fat men like me or him. I have noticed that it is now a fashion trend to look skinny and weak. This will put you at a disadvantage against an fat men in a fit of rage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtTUsOKjWyQ
alain smirkofsm on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:13 pm
this is what I mean. It is now a fashion trends among the elites to look skinny and weak. You are not match against a fat in a fit a rage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mhfrd4IZi-w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtTUsOKjWyQ
karine stpierre on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:20 pm
I weight 400 lbs. Do you have any idea of the physical strength needed by legs just to move my body around. Do you have any idea what kind of upper belly strength it takes just to keep my self in a upper straight position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtTUsOKjWyQ
Look at how he kicks the fucking terminal out of way with just on leg kick.
alin depuit on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:42 pm
Actually, it is a big fashion trend among the European political elite to look slim, unhealthy and weak. It feels like it part of the jobs requirement if you want to be European politicians. The European politicians are such fucking loser, just look at them.
For European elites, everything is about apparences and look.
jonane labrime on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:47 pm
Look at 6:26. All skinny men that look unhealthy and weak. For some of us big men, it is even not a challenge to kill them. Some of you are in for a rough awakening about how this world really works. You are basically mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJvWuKIKPc8
Jean claude paorte on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 3:55 pm
This is your European elites weak skinny pathetic men. See at 3:22. These losers will never win a fight against a fat man in a fit of rage. I told that the whole reality has been feminized.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QjohRVP2AI