It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Helene Marceau on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:07 pm
Look at these fucking skinny losers.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5jCV7eWOzA4
karine lafreniiere on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:18 pm
look at this pathetic skinny loser politicians from europe. They all look the same. They are all mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHBeKYHyuYI
Jane latraverse on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:20 pm
European politicians all look that same. Same skinny pathetic weak body frame.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nhuQLBj6UM
Joe lapoine on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:39 pm
The theory of evolution does not seem to apply to European politicians. There is indeed an backward entropic degradation clock that is making humans weaker at each reproduction cycle. They all look skinny and weak. I told you that sexual reproduction never work and always lead to weak humans not stronger humans.
Sexual reproduction is a failed strategy and will always be. The next phase is the dead of everyone on earth. It is over.
alaine lapore on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:42 pm
I was sure that people understood better how a failed strategy is sexual reproduction.
alain delon on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:46 pm
You see these people. Some people are coming to kill them and their family.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzmZpz3qmIw
alin forbes on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:47 pm
We have your name and a complete file on all of you. A King will appointed to deal without you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzmZpz3qmIw
aline forge on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:51 pm
The NSA was not created to spy on the people. It was created to spy on the World elites and build file on all of you. I guess you never saw this one coming: retaliation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzmZpz3qmIw
Jerome laforege on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:54 pm
Do you really think that the NSA was created to spy on a car mechanics living in Austin. No it was created to spy on the elites: bankers, politicians, government employees, NGO, think tanks. How stupid do you think we are.
jerome alpote on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 4:57 pm
We have complete files about all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY6fn0In1O8
fucking losers on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 5:21 pm
The military special forces, NSA and other were created to spy on the power structure of earth: universities, media, United Nations, banks, WEF, trilateral commission, bankers, NGO, politicians, think tanks and many more.
alain laporte on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 5:36 pm
The fucking food is uneatable on this fucking planet. This fucking shit is poisonous. Everything is uneatable on this fucking planet, everything.
jean latouche on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 5:40 pm
Well, I spoke about all of this before and natural resources depletion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xa_jqfsfjqU
alain laporte on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 5:54 pm
You should see that shit at night. You can see the holographic projection really well, especially around the light sources. It is disorienting.
alain laporte on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 6:44 pm
Sperm play. Someone is using porn as a way to boost sexua reproduction. The amount of sexual fantaisies has exploded in the last 10 years. I guess they need more slaves to keep building more condos for the invaders.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/tyna-busty-sperm-swallower-last-part-number-4-with-sperm-drink-xhrLIKV
Isabelle suceuse on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 6:46 pm
look at how the shit they are producing now.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/her-first-milking-table-drinking-straw-sounding-blowjob-with-feedback-xhCrjJU
alain elon on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 6:51 pm
My understanding of sperm play is that it is form of worship of man masculinity by dring the source of life that is sperm. Someone is panicking somewhere because the human slaves have stopped reproducing, see South Korea. So they are pumping more porn move with more sexual fantaisies.
isablle conne on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 6:56 pm
Look at this crap. Someone is panicking,
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/footjob-and-cum-on-feet-while-coffee-time-break-xh6JRVW
karine cochonne on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 6:58 pm
I could go on and on. I will stop here. I think I prove my point.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/young-mistress-knows-what-she-wants-from-my-cock-try-not-to-cum-xhhAqhr
alaine spence on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 7:04 pm
This shit is funny when you think about it. It because of feminism, rape laws, divorce courts that sexual reproduction went down. They are now trying to undo what they did by putting move porn videos. I told you, that are fucking losers.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/milking-chair-ruined-cumshot-milked-into-glass-xhZccKb
alian lapore on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 7:34 pm
Nissan is going bankrupt because of their CVT transmission. It is because of EPA fuel economy regulation that Nissan was forced to use a CVT transmission. This is the EPA destroying the car industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0rXG_-F_fk
97% failure rate for the CVT transmission
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRfsss9yeAo
alaine lapoete on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 7:45 pm
These people understand only brut force. It is a waist of time talking with them. This is why I demanded the dead of all the trees on earth. It is to be able to negotiate from a position of strength not of weakness. If they refuse to talk and negotiate, everyone dies.
alaie lapome on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 8:08 pm
When Kamala Harris said don’t give up your power she was talking to me. She was saying kill all of them if you need to, meaning don’t be afraid to kill all the population of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGJsovcIIps
jean filion on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 8:15 pm
You will never heard in the main street media, that Kamala Harris sabotage herself because she did not want to become the US president. You will never heard any truth coming out of the main street media.
alaine laporete on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 9:58 pm
I said that before. I just watch some more porn, it feels sometime that someone is build a procreation chamber or sexual realm in the goal of rebuilding earth population after the death of everyone on earth. It really feels that way to me.
lacore jacith on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 10:04 pm
The porn is too well done, the clothing are too perfect. Some one has a lot of imagination to come up with all these sexual scenario. It really looks like a sexual realm or procreation chamber ready to go as soon as everyone on earth die. It is fucking breath taking. They have a really good understanding of male sexuality.
Carlee Yundt on Wed, 27th Nov 2024 10:18 pm
Have you tried playing this jacksmith game? It certainly won’t let you down because it’s very good and extremely attractive.
isablle laproche on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 12:22 am
I told you that there is a sexual or procreation realm ready to repopulate earth after the death of everyone. I don’t where they take all this imagination
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/headscissors-in-mixed-wrestling-4988540
alan laporte on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 3:39 am
These are air weapon displayed in a military setting 24:22. it is still a military setting display. The West has nothing to offer me. Restrictives handguns laws, brutal rape laws, brutal divorce courts, constant female victims mentality, constante feminist narrative. Canada has nothing to offer. The West will not get a second chance. You should have give me back my handguns when I asked you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKye87LBHrg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKye87LBHrg
Jeanette Bertrand on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 3:48 am
I will repeat that, there is a sexual realm within earth and earth can be repopulate after the erasure of all its population. There is nothing special about the West that is worth saving,
rachel lepine on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 4:34 am
All the liver spots on my skin are vanishing. It look like I am being rejuvenate. This is what you would do if you were planing on using someone as a procreator and repopulate the earth. Or this is what you would do if you are plaining to transferer this person into a another realm. You are just fucking losers, especially Canada with its firearms laws. I am slowing losing my appetite. This is also something you would do if you were planning to transfer someone into a dimension where there is no food and water. Fuck you are just pathetic losers.
alixia lafrance on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 5:28 am
Here you go. The improve female procreator at 2:27. Bigger, stronger, with a flat belly. strong arms and legs. Just make sure she as an high IQ, unlike the current female that we have now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMDU32hDUqI
alain laporete on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 5:43 am
I dislike the short female shaped like a pear as procreator. It does not seem to make sense to me. I don’t see why women should have a small waist and big hips.
alain lapore on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 5:46 am
I never understood the purpose of making the female weak. The only reason someone would do that is to use her as a victim by giving her the shape of someone weak.
alaine grahum on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 6:10 am
When you really look at it, women shaped like a pear are actually really ugly, body shape wise. I still don’t understand why a female cannot have a straight torse such as the women above. Shape wise, the actual women was designed to be used a victim. This is why it was easy for them to push feminism forward .
alain laprote on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 6:34 am
1:08 look at how ugly a pear shaped women is, compare to the volley ball female player above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hehXACinAs
I never understood why men are worshipping such an ugly creature.
Alaine lapore on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 7:30 am
You see him signing a piece of paper at 4:10. This show how important paper is for the judicial and financial system earth. By killing all the trees of earth, I am killing the justice and financial system. If nobody is coming to talk to me about it. it means that the controller of the earth (they are above the earth cabal level) are approving what I am doing and are supporting the actions I have taken so far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4XqbKs3hLQ
alaion delon on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 7:39 am
I hate these pieces of shit politician telling me that freedom is important, and yet they took away my freedom to carry an handgun on me without license. Fucking losers. Some people from somewhere will come to kill you all.
“Freedom is priceless” – EU Commission President tells the European Parliament
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz_59ML4gDI
alain delomr on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 7:52 am
I don’t know who they are but, they understand male sexuality. Just look at female clothing. They really get it and these beings would easily be capable of creating a sexual realm for procreation only.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G48Wl98wxYM
helene carine on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 7:57 am
I told you that we don’t need earth population. I told you that we can easily repopulate earth using a sexual realm dedicated to that. I also told you that I will kill you all because of Canada firearms laws.
jaean lapoete on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 8:35 am
I told you so fucking low IQ trash losers. We can repopulate earth with one or two men with upgraded sexual organ and newly improve created female. With such a sexual real repopulating the earth will not be a problem. I told you to abolish Canada firearms laws.
jean laforest on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 8:54 am
This could be the best part. In a sexual realm where food and water is not needed to stay alive. the asshole become a third hole for sexual pleasure. Always clean and tight and can be stretched. Imagine that, a female where her 3 holes can be used for sexual pleasure. Fucking pieces of shit low IQ losers.
jocelun latombe on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 12:00 pm
These are air weapon displayed in a military setting 24:22. it is still a military setting display. The West has nothing to offer me. Restrictives handguns laws, brutal rape laws, brutal divorce courts, constant female victims mentality, constante feminist narrative. Canada has nothing to offer. The West will not get a second chance. You should have give me back my handguns when I asked you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKye87LBHrg
Thailand can easily be turned into a sexual realm for procreation if needed. I don’t care about Canada and the West. I was not able to develop an emotional attachment with Canada because its abusive firearms laws. I needed an handgun for personal protection and Canada denied this liberty to me. This mean Canada does not care about me, so I don’t care about Canada. It it impossible for me to love and care about Canada because of that. This is something that should be easy to understand, but Canada politicians are heavily mentally retarded, so I gave up on Canada.
jeremeo lapote on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 12:23 pm
A wise man life is based on Fuck You. So fuck you Canada, Québec and the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
joe lapoate on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 12:27 pm
Certain parts of my life are used as inspiration for some parts movies and some tv show show. You people just don’t know the real truth.
A wise man life is based on around Fuck You. So fuck you Canada, Québec and the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
alain delon on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 1:33 pm
2:07 to 2:25. Black clothing and the girl sitting with her legs open are perfect. I would not have been able to come with such imaginative clothing. Who ever did this, full understand male sexuality. A sexual realm can be built to repopulate earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G48Wl98wxYM
Isabelle lapute on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 1:47 pm
All the population of earth can be killed and we can repopulate earth with one or two chosen men. In fact, we are going to kill everyone on earth and repopulate. Earth population is too mentally retarded to be kept alive.
alain deplomb on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 2:24 pm
Kamala is laughing her ass off. She sabotaged herself and the current events such as dying trees all over the world, proves that she made the right decision. She is laughing at all of stupid liberal, Jews and progressives.
You will never heard that on the internet or the main street medias. The illusion of democracy and fake freedom must be persevered at all cost. This shit is funny. Notice that Trump is losing weight. I pretty sure he regrets it now.
joelapoe on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 2:28 pm
Again the main street media does not get it.
Harris has herself to blame for 2024 loss, Julie Banderas says
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGDoZpQOyPQ
She is laughing at all of you for being that stupid. She sabotaged herself, it is not the same thing as blaming herself. Just fucking losers on this earth.
jonelaoe on Thu, 28th Nov 2024 2:38 pm
RECORD SNOWS HIT SIBERIA AND RUSSIAN FAR EAST; ECMWF FORECASTS COLD WINTER FOR EUROPE; HALF OF CHINA REGISTERS RECORD LOW TEMPS, SNOW RECORDS BROKEN; NH SNOW COVER STEPS UP; + GREENLAND’S 20-YEAR COOLING TREND
I told you that we will kill all the population of earth and repopulate using a sexual realm, if desired.
Kamala knows that she made the right decision. She is laughing at all of you.