It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Catherine Lapute on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 5:57 pm
For some reasons women feel protected when they are the sexual slave of a dominant male.
They don’t want a governance patriarcal of earth because earth invasion would be more difficult. As dominant males will never allow this. So they created a matriarcal civilization using feminism.
latupîe lena on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 6:03 pm
This is why I said that once the civilisation collapses and the government stop providing services to the population, things will go back to what there were. Total female oppression and domination. This BS of rape laws will disappear. No you understand why I hate the Jews. For the Jews every sexual acts is a rape. Unlike BDSM where female submission is seen as normal
jerohe trudeau on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 6:07 pm
Before the rape laws, one of the easiest way for a women to get the protection of a dominant male was through sexual submission. She is wired like that and they know it.
jaine lapire on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 6:17 pm
This is good example, you can never enough degrade sexually a women. She always wants more.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/wait-that-meat-is-gonna-wreck-da-tight-cunt-of-megan-rain-xhnVW6O2
alaine pussy on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 6:38 pm
Eventually all of planet earth will come to the same conclusion I came, killing all the Jews on planet earth is the right thing go do.
alllan debruise on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 8:03 pm
Look a video of the US navy with a french title.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2atEWHwetg
alaie lapore on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 8:08 pm
I have a nice life. No reason to ruin my life by becoming a King. You are on your own. You still own me 100 millions for all the work I did for you.
Janette Bertrand on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 8:15 pm
I told you I am unable to develop an emotional attachment toward Canada or the West because of Canada firearms laws. Canada was not there to help me when I needed a handgun for personal protection and temporary psychological support. I will not be there to help Canada in its time of need. You are on your own.
alian laporete on Fri, 29th Nov 2024 9:04 pm
During my time of psychological distress I was alone and Canada was not there to help me. I will not be there for Canada, US or the West during their time of distress. You are on your own, the same way I was on my own alone.
A wise man life is based around fuck you. So I am telling all of you to go fuck yourself
alain lapote on Sat, 30th Nov 2024 5:46 am
Thailand never disappoint. I still this is the perfect location to create a sexual realm to repopulate earth. 9:45 in the video below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEHXbvXaKrk
I still believe that earth cannot be fixed, and the best way is to kill everyone on earth and repopulate earth using a sexual realm with improved male and female procreators.
Johane laporte on Sat, 30th Nov 2024 5:52 am
I have not love or emotional attachment toward the West. All of this because of Canada firearms laws. Think about it 2 mins.
alaind delon on Sat, 30th Nov 2024 7:25 am
Who comes up with all these sex scenario.? I told you that everyone on earth can be killed and earth can be repopulated using a sexual realm and improved female and male. I told you that you are just fucking losers to let Jews push this feminist agenda on you.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/busty-slut-alexa-pierce-disciplined-by-dominant-couple-11753016
Larine laopre on Sat, 30th Nov 2024 2:48 pm
My plan is still to retaliate against the world for Canada firearms laws. This will never be done to me again in the future. My plan is still to kill everyone on earth. If I need to repopulate earth I will use a sexual realm. I will heavily retaliate against Canada and Québec for Canada firearms laws. I might even retaliate against Whites women that I feel are responsible for the creatin of Canada firearms laws.
I will never be there to help Canada, US or the West as they were not there to help me when I needed an handgun. Those things work both ways.
alain laporete on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 8:16 am
This is brillant. Trump Nominates Kash Patel For FBI Director.
This is like saying, you want western civilisation you can have it. Will you get the participation of Whites people to maintain it, is another question. He is basically transferring a dying civilisation to the brown shit skin and he is walking away from it. You will never hear that in the main street media. We can repopulate with a sexual realm once everyone on earth is dead.
jocelye darling on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 8:36 am
It is really that we have no desire to save earth and its population. It is pretty obvious that this is the end of earth as we know it now. Of course you will never hear that in the medias.
Obama legault on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 9:03 am
Fucking funny, they are panicking. We dont have the staff or IQ needed to run a military style retribution campaign. It is easier to destroy this civilisation by killing the trees and transferring the control of it to the brown shit skin. Whites people will sabotage the West from the inside. See and enjoy. It was an already a dying civilisation anyway. If you are White might as well walk away from it like I did.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K011VEt08Gs
Heline portial on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 9:20 am
It is funny that CNN is calling him a loyalist when he is an Indian from India. You usually choose people of your own skin color to ensure a better loyalty and stronger friendship bonds. Again media will never dare to say anything about his skin color. They are such fucking losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K011VEt08Gs
Kakrine latroue on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 9:39 am
Everyone know what a real loyalist definition is: someone with the same skin color, same language and was born in the same geographic area of you. I am telling man, fuck the are losers.
If I had to build a personal guard, these are the men you bring with you when you are planning executing someone personally, such CEO of big corporation, I would choose all French Canadian to ensure better loyalty and better friendship bonds. Isn’t that fucking obvious.
we need to amputate elite whitey supertard thunderf00t because back in 3/2020 when the Convid-19 just started, this elite whitey supertard went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 9:43 am
i then demanded immediate amputation
ask yourself if someone who speaks high british english does he love supremacist muzzies of course he does
please speak low english
supertards please change ur undies after 8 weeks
please feel ease we’re lovers of muzzies
ANAL EXTREME LUBE PROLAPSE CAPTURE SHOCK supremacist muzzies On This Day…
Dec 01, 2019: Hantoukoura, Burkina Faso
Jihadists stage a barbaric attack on a church: 14 Killed
–
why elite whitey supertard president Elon lies when elite whitey supertard Newton made 1st LAW we have spacecraft and exhaust gas pushes against each in vacuum taken as a whole both physical frame and exhaust entity only elongates on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 9:46 am
supremacist muzzies
Ramadan Bombathon 2023
Final Score
Attacks 145 Kills 741
Heline laporete on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:03 am
A intelligent King will have a personal guards and a personal army. Your personal army should be made of people of the same skin color but can speak different language and come from outside the immediate area you liver. But, they must be of the same skin color.
Jona lapotere on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:28 am
You also have with your personal guards you have a technical guards made of: accounts, engineering, doctor, chemist. Lets say you want to interrogate FDA staff, you bring the chemist and doctors within your personal guards. It is a multifunction personal guards, I guess is could be called that way.
You need to interrogate EPA staff, you bring with you personal guards chemists and engineers with you.
You see where I am going with that.
anette lacroiz on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:36 am
It is better for all of us, if you leave earth now.
alain lapore on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:47 am
I made a mistake the technical guards is not part of the personal guards. There will be something like a technical guards, where some of these members will be included into the personal guard during certain of missions, such as interrogating EPA, FDA, NSA, climate scientists, personal.
heline lapierre on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:51 am
As I said, it is better for all of us if you leave earth.
alain lapote on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:58 am
Depending how this will turn out, I will go with my personal guard into university medical schools and ask why they not make a presse conference about people neck elongating on a short period. If I don’t like the answers I will use my persona guards to kill al the medical teachers. This one purpose of the personal guard.
we need to amputate elite whitey supertard president thunderf00t because back in 3/2020 when the Convid-19 just started, this elite whitey supertard went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 3:34 pm
I then demanded immediate amputation
ask yourself if someone who speaks high british english does he love supremacist muzzies of course he does
please speak low english
supertards please change ur undies after 8 weeks
please feel ease we’re lovers of supremacist muzzies
ANAL EXTREME LUBE PROLAPSE CAPTURE SHOCK supremacist muzzies On This Day… on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 3:35 pm
Dec 01, 2019: Hantoukoura, Burkina Faso
Jihadists stage a barbaric attack on a church: 14 Killed
jane lapoete on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 3:48 pm
I am kidding. I will not be your King. I will not ruin my life just for that. I am just trolling the whole planet earth. Nobody takes my handgun away from me. The calculator of conservation of mass will kill all the population of earth for me. Why work hard. On top of that we are kill the trees of plane earth. Why work hard when I don’t have too.
US and Canada are on their own. the same way I was on my own when I needed an handgun for personal protection and temporary psychological support. I am just trolling earth as a form of entertainment.
WHEN convid19 first starte circa Mar 2020 he made one video about the covid then stopped and thats the only video about the convid that he made on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 3:50 pm
when I saw that he went on self imposed quarantine i demanded immediate amputation
like Einstein, it’s not his theory of relativity but photoelectric effect
the amputation is not for anything convid related, it’s for the love of supremacist muzzies
supertards please ease we love MUZZ
ewwww brother what that brother
WHAT THAT
EWWW
alain delon on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 4:00 pm
GOD is above the human laws system. If GOD decide to install a king over North America, there is nothing you can do. Fuck I hate the Jews. Typical Fucking jews hiding behind the justice system to protect himself against retribution.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/r9K1mHD2UD4
Look at how scare the fucking Jews is.
staphoine laporte on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 4:16 pm
Me killing all the trees of earth, is me retaliating against the world because of Canada firearms laws. Do you understand what is happening here? I am retaliating against for Canada firearms laws. My skin has changed so much since 4 year ago, that in a 1 year from now, I could be out of earth realm.
alain depuis on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 4:21 pm
Look at the palm tree on the right at 0:04. Look how yellow the tree. I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOnuToIaQC8
joe amode on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 4:23 pm
2:43 only dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOnuToIaQC8
I told you so that I would retaliate
alaine plumard on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 4:47 pm
There is no fucking way Jimmy Kimmel get 2.3 millions views. He is not funny at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58IDC72K0b4
They have no real content except of making fun of Trump. Does he know that he humiliate himself each time he opens his mouth.
alain cpac on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 6:50 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjtbSLfXqi8
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I told you to abolish the Canadian firearms laws 2 years ago.
natuale karin on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 7:13 pm
It was the last time I was left alone in psychological distress without the possibility to buy and carry a handgun on me. It is that last time it was done to me. It will never be done to me after I kill all of you.
alan lapoarete on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:40 pm
13:48 all the palm trees are dying. I told you that I would all the population of earth because of the Canadian firearms laws. Never again I will be left defenseless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ae5IHVXtd9A
jonny cash on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 10:42 pm
14:43 in the middle. Look at the palms trees dying with its yellow and brown leaves. I told you so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ae5IHVXtd9A
jnaje lapoute on Sun, 1st Dec 2024 11:55 pm
During 1990 to 2000 movies with rape scene where heavily pushed. GI jane is one of them. In Québec we had the Nathalie Simard story. This is when they were fast tracking the installation of a matriarcale form of governance using women as a victim. They were basically sexual castrating men with all these rape female movie, rape laws, and feminism. this invasion would have never happen under a patriarcal form of governance,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0yoUPcQNA8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oxSRsXeB-k
lain pute on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 12:02 am
This is the best description of GI jane I took from the web: Sexual harassment and general bullying is shown throughout the film towards a female outsider. A lot of effort were done in the past to sexually castrate men using female rape stories, news and movies. It was never ending. You could see they had a deliberate agenda.in
heline jokine on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 12:09 am
Back in these days, female rape was present as the worst crime of all. It was fucking annoying. Will are still stuck with this female rape mentality and completely sexually castrated men to this day. It going to take forever to fix this shit and we are running out of time as natural resources are depleting fast. It is basically over for earth. reinstalling patriarchy will take another 50 year. We don’t have 50 year left of natural ressources
alain laporte on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 12:14 pm
3:04 why would you put that in a video, unless you are studying someone sexuality in order to create a procreator sexual realm tailor to his sexual preferences. The lower part of the bikini is covering the vagina in order to draw attention to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A4h_SZ2-LM
Alain laporte on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 12:46 pm
Look at her top, how pretty it is. It is fake CGI but it is still a pretty top. at 1:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWaOWSX46Xc
joew lapoee on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 12:53 pm
I told you that we are not keeping earth population alive. I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I also told you that we can repopulate earth using a sexual realm. We have no reasons to keep earth alive when all its population is heavily mentally retarded. Better start from scratch. I told you that I would retaliate against Canada for its handguns laws. I told you, that you are just fucking losers. You should have abolished Canada firearms laws 2 years ago when I asked you. You are just fucking pathetic losers.
alaine leblong on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 12:58 pm
Normally someone would have already kill Dominic Leblanc that is the one pushing for restrictive firearms laws. I told you, you are just fucking losers.
janinc judge on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 1:25 pm
Normal people in charge would have abolish the Canadian firearms laws to please me. Normally someone would have made of list of the advantages vs disadvantage and come to the conclusion that is worth talking the risk to abolish Canada firearms laws, I told you , you are just fucking losers. These people are thinking about themself first and are incapable of putting their selfish ego by the side of the road. I told you that you are just fucking losers.
aline marceau on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 1:38 pm
Normal people in charge would have abolish the Canadian firearms laws to please me. Normally someone would have made of list of the advantages vs disadvantage and come to the conclusion that it is worth taking the risk to abolish Canada firearms laws, I told you , you are just fucking losers. These people are thinking about themself first and are incapable of putting their selfish ego by the side of the road. I told you that you are just fucking losers.
AFTER seeing elite whitey supertard president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine for the convid I demanded immediate amputation on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 1:41 pm
Just like how Einstein wasn’t awared a nobel prize for relativity, it was for photoelectric effect
i demanded amputaiton not for convid, it’s for lovin’ supremacist muzzies
On This Day…
Dec 02, 2014: Korome, Kenya
Christian quarry workers are separated
from others and executed: 36 Killed
Davy on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 1:43 pm
I know some wrong when a pretty little white girl ran to a black man arms dead giveaway deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed giveaway