It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
aline marceraux on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 2:01 pm
No real leadership would have allowed the death of all the trees of earth just for a question of handgun ownership and carry. Real leadership would have abolished the Canadian firearms laws to save earth. You are going to let me kill all the trees on earth over a question of handgun ownership. Something is not right.
alain depit on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 2:09 pm
You will let me kill the whole earth reality just because of a question of handgun ownership. You will not try to please me by abolishing the Canadians firearms laws. I guest you don’t like planet earth also and you are also happy to see it destroy. Meaning, you are destroying your whole creation because you are unhappy with earth population. What other conclusion can someone come up with. What are in front of creator destroying its on creation
aline lapote on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 3:28 pm
Read the comment I made above and listen to the video ci-dessous. Are they talking about Trump, or the creator of earth or me. My advice to all of you is don’t fuck with shit you don’t understand and don’t fuck with powerful people who you know nothing of their personal life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Mjkb59q0Pg
alain laporre on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 6:24 pm
The mini human specie. This is the typical mini female. She looks like a kids but she is of adult age. She is sexually compatible with the regular size human specie and can give birth after procreation with the regular size human male.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-MXwNu7tFA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nVrHrd8h9I
alain laporte on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 7:00 pm
Above the mini human specie, there is the small human specie. The sexual procreation between both species is frequents.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-RHoIju3L3Y
At top of chart, there is the heavy human specie. That weight 300 lbs and above and are known to wrestle each other as standard sexual activity. The roll on the floor on top of each other.
alain acpe on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 7:27 pm
Make a reliability test on both over a period of 10 years. I bet the old one will be the most reliability.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1F5DFvGQ5U
alin delon on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 8:31 pm
I told you modern agricultural equipment are unreliable garbage that is unfixable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1F5DFvGQ5U
Farmers champion “right to repair” laws
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iav1Ke443dw
Only the chosen ones will live. Everyone else on earth is scheduled to be executed.You will let me kill the whole earth reality just because of a question of handgun ownership. You will not try to please me by abolishing the Canadians firearms laws. I guest you don’t like planet earth also and you are also happy to see it destroy. Meaning, you are destroying your whole creation because you are unhappy with earth population. What other conclusion can someone come up with. What are in front of creator destroying its on creation.
janne latoune on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 8:47 pm
fucking unreliable piece of shit that is unfixable. It help with our reliability he says, meaning it was never reliable to start with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cd4FjZNkdpw
allan lapce on Mon, 2nd Dec 2024 10:18 pm
It is going to be a spectacular collapse. Earth is stuck in high technological death trap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ7XGH_jfgg
alain lapote on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:14 am
Normally the controller of earth or the cabal would have step in and abolished the Canadian firearms laws to save earth. This mean that the cabal and controller of earth want the dead of everyone on earth and the end of earth reality.
jerimah babe on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:20 am
Normally the cabal would have cave in and abolish the Canadian firearms laws to please
me. Even the cabal is working toward the total destruction of earth.
Jonlath kleck on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:41 am
Let’s this is accurate 14 000 firearms incident in Canada.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2024001/article/00001-eng.htm
Let’s say abolish Canada firarms alws will increade the number of firearms incidetns to 50 000.
(50 000)/(41 880 954)*100= 0.1%
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005-eng.htm
You refuse to abolish the Canada firearms laws to protect 0.1% of the population, You will let me kill the whole population of earth to save 0.1% of Canada population against firearms death. I told you are just fucking losers.
makc lepine on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:43 am
Let’s assume this is accurate 14 000 firearms incidents in Canada.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2024001/article/00001-eng.htm
Let’s say abolishing Canada firarms laws will increase the number of firearms incidents to 50 000.
(50 000)/(41 880 954)*100= 0.1%
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005-eng.htm
You refuse to abolish the Canada firearms laws to protect 0.1% of the population, You will let me kill the whole population of earth to save 0.1% of Canada population against firearms death. I told you are just fucking losers.
Alain Delons on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:56 am
You make a big deal about firearms death when it is even not 1% of the population. GOD you are such fucking losers. You are oppressing me with your restrictive handguns laws because 0,03% of population was killed with a firearms.
You are just fucking pathetic losers.
(14000/41 880 953)*100= 0.03%
alain lporete on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 8:18 am
I always knew that earth was just populated with heavily mentally retarded people. You are oppressing me to save 0.03% of canada population against death by firearms. 0.03% can be round off to 0% if you use one significative digit after the dot.
laind lpoted on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 8:38 am
This why it was easy for us to order the destruction of earth and the death of everyone living on earth.
This is the definition of a parasite contributing nothing but sucking up resources for its personal survival. 0%, zero fucking percent.
You are oppressing me to save 0.03% of canada population against death by firearms. 0.03% can be round off to 0% if you use one significative digit after the dot.
Only the chosen will live.
joe biden on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 8:55 am
Nobody is coming to save or help earth population. You will be killed as it was planned long ago. No mercy will be shown toward earth
No Mercy on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 9:16 am
Nobody is coming to save or help earth population. You will be killed as it was planned long ago. No mercy will be shown toward earth
SEVERE COLD HITS PAKISTAN; FLORIDA SET FOR RECORD COLD; SNOWY NOVEMBER AT RED MOUNTAIN; GLOBAL WINE PRODUCTION AT HISTORIC LOWS; + “CLIMATE-FRIENDLY MILK”: SAFETY CONCERNS OVER NEW COW FEED ADDITIVE
kaine lapore on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 1:47 pm
She is basically saying the Europe and probably the rest of the world, love to take advantage of the US using globalism, the international law system and UN. She find unfair that the US has decided to protect itself against parasites and internal destruction coming from the Jews, Europe, Israel, Japan, South Korea and many more. She find it unfair that US has decided to put its own survival above the survival of the rest of world first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFXRUNsK9Nk
karione laporete on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 2:58 pm
I think you are all losers, in and out of earth. You should have known that someone like me that was going to fight against the power structed of earth will seek to buy and carry an handgun. You should have prepared for that. You should have chosen someone in Texas instead of Canada., The fucking invisible world is also populated with idiots. A big clean up is needed in and out of earth.
I am not coming to help earth.
heleine lapierre on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 3:09 pm
Just fucking losers where I look inside of earth or outside. I am surrounded by fucking losers.
kaine laporete on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 3:26 pm
You should have been able to plan ahead to make my life easier. I cannot work with any of you, you are too stupid. I cannot count on you to have my back in time of trouble.
Kaone lapote on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 3:34 pm
Nobody has never been there to cover my back through my whole life. You should have knows that I would be seeking to buy and carry a handgun. Fucking low IQ losers.
Jesue lagrange on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 3:42 pm
I will kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws. Stupid pieces of shit low IQ
alain lapote on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 4:23 pm
0:12 look at the dying trees in the back. I told you that I would kill everyone on earth and if need be, earth can be repopulated with a sexual realm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZcyRLtwUVY
alain laoote on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 5:00 pm
Look on the right at 0:29 the top of the trees. All dying trees. It fucking endless the number of videos with dying trees. I told you that nobody takes way my handgun from me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLdSDyATsGw
We are using the same method we used to change people neck from short to long.
alaine lapote on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 6:30 pm
I told you that the biggest female sexual fantasy is to be brutally anally rape. Women love to be a sex object, they fell protected and beautiful. Remember that according to the Jews, any kind of sex acts is equal to rape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_ciPKKdbQc
alaine lapoe on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 6:39 pm
Rammed in my A** – Anita Cox
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0QeN0D3Mc8
You are really naive if you think the Jews and Israel are a friend of the USA and Whites people.
alaine laporete on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 6:45 pm
Glenda Fairbach – My A** Is Big Enough For Both Of You (1959)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhaw8_EDWqY
There is something called anal training in BDSM where you slowly train a women asshole to relax itself. It starts with one finger, 2 fingers, 3 fingers, butt plugs, dildo of various size and goes until the master is please with the behavior of her asshole. It is documented and it is on web on some BDSM forum. It is not something hidden.
alain laporte on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:02 pm
On some of these BDSM forum, they will explain to you how to clean yourself with an anal enema and will discuss at length what kind of anal lubricant to use. None of this is hidden.
Isabelle cartier on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:02 pm
On some of these BDSM forum, they will explain to you how to clean yourself with an anal enema and will discuss at length what kind of anal lubricant to use. None of this is hidden.
JOe rogan on Tue, 3rd Dec 2024 7:16 pm
As far as I am concerned I will not come to the rescue of earth. I preferred to kill everyone on earth and restart from scratch using a sexual realm. Earth population is too mentally retarded. Plus I promised myself that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. This not negotiable for me, all of you have to die.
tomdavid on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 9:23 am
Hi,
Thanks for sharing such an informative blog. It’s crucial to question mainstream narratives like the IEA’s and consider the long-term implications of peak oil demand on global energy strategies.
https://www.qfautomation.com/brand/carlo-gavazzi
Thanks,
alina labrose on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 4:07 pm
I told you that we can create a sexual realm to repopulate earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4FpcrVHUG0
As far as I am concerned I will not come to the rescue of earth. I preferred to kill everyone on earth and restart from scratch using a sexual realm. Earth population is too mentally retarded. Plus I promised myself that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. This not negotiable for me, all of you have to die.
aldine alied on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 4:46 pm
In fact, the female procreators are so prefect that they look like CGI, but yet they still have a flesh body. When you start from scratch, you can best of it all. I told you to not take away from me my handguns.
alain lapote on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 4:56 pm
Most of you have no idea how ugly is the human female. Even the prettiest of human female is ugly compare to what a newly created female procreator look like.
Jeanoe tortoire on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 5:00 pm
You have no idea how ugly is the human specie. You have never seen real beauty.
isablle latour on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 5:19 pm
The human flesh body is so ugly that you have to hide its ugliness with clothing. Clothing exist only to hide the ugliness of the flesh body. You don’t deserver beauty and will never know what beauty is.
alan laoforesdt on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 5:34 pm
Only the losers of UN and WEF find earth beautiful and worth saving. Earth is ugly and smell bad. Animals and fishes stink, the forest stinks, your food stinks. You don’t know what beauty if because you have been living among ugliness for so long. The flesh body is disgusting and smell bad.
alain lapue on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 5:54 pm
Have you look at a female vagina. Female vaginas are ugly and should not be worshipped. Everything is ugly on earth and stink.
isabelle pue on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 5:58 pm
Have you lick a female vagina. I did, it smells bad, really bad. You want to throw up.
jocely trudeau on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 6:01 pm
Some people believe that the human body is similar to that of an insect.
alain berthiaume on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 6:05 pm
Loot at 1:55 the face of this guy. It is the face of a insect. Look he is hiding the ugliness of the flesh body with clothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVsnxj2ijWs
mariame latrendress on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 6:27 pm
She is talking about me, not Trump. They read my comments. They are afraid of me.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rQUdyV3uxRE
Caroline plante on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 6:41 pm
They are afraid I will take the US army and attack Israel. They are afraid that I will take a cruise missile and bomb Israel biggest water treatment plant. They are afraid I will take a cruise missile and bomb biggest Israel electrical power substation. They are afraid I will kill Bill Maher with a shotgun shot to the face in live time for all the world to see.
Dominiqu Leblanc on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 6:48 pm
She is talking about me.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/LS89KfJFXMQ
Kaine Trumpette on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 7:09 pm
They are also afraid I will use the US army to bomb the UN building in New York during day time with it is full of people working in it.
jandime langevin on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 7:32 pm
So funny see them panicking about the end of democracy and retaliation.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/jGwB9ohJc8k
Jow pluton on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 8:22 pm
Don’t be excited about the comments I made above. This is the best you will ever get from me. You don’t want to pay me, you will get shit work from me. I am using this site as distraction. I am not coming to help earth. . Plus I promised myself that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. This not negotiable for me, all of you have to die. You were not there for me when I needed an handgun, I will not be there for earth in its time of needs.
jonny comehome on Wed, 4th Dec 2024 10:32 pm
Can I used these to attack Israel? How many are operational?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pc_Q1aZm_VU