It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
karine Laploofe on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 10:22 pm
How powerful am I, someone is asking me by telepathy. It is a good question. I don’t remember my past so I cannot answer this question. I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws, this I know.
karine laprise on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 10:25 pm
You are not going to win this one, against us.
Joe lapatate on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 10:48 pm
Earth is a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat and hold together by gravity and friction forces. That all it is. This is your base design concept upon which everything else is built.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NctbIQ1iFLQ
JOpe latendresse on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 10:58 pm
There is no such think as electrical current, it is a form of heat transfer. I don’t remember the details. The electrical laws that you are using have been given to you by us. They are primitive laws as the real models are to complex to be solved using primitive earth mathematics. I will kill all of you just because of Canada firearms laws
jhean lapatge on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 11:03 pm
Where do you think the heat come from when you are running a electrical heating device. Heat is stored inside the electrical current. Fucking low IQ losers. Nobody mess with my right to carry handguns on me.
joe lagrange on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 11:07 pm
Your piece of shit computers based on zeros and ones are a real joke to us.
karine leblanc on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 11:28 pm
You want to know what is the definition of sex for the Jews and Whites people, every sexual act is a rape.
You want to know what is the definition of success for the Jews and Whites, how much hard manual labor you can extract from someone using money.
You know why it is like that, because we designed earth as a slavery reality because we hate you.
Fucking worthless Jews and Whites
Alain laporte on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 11:32 pm
You want to know why the French created the CFA franc. To steal natural ressources from Africa for the benefit of all of Europe.
Jedan lapoitint on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 11:36 pm
You want to know why there is something called CNN Indonesia. It is to facilitate the control of Indonesian natural resources.
I told you that we created earth as a slavery reality as a punished for your past behavior.
https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional
latina washigton on Sat, 14th Dec 2024 11:41 pm
We are going to fuck over earth population real good for your past sins.
Alain duplessis on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 12:00 am
Have you look at yourself in a mirror. have you noticed how ugly you are. Can you see your own image in a mirror, I don’t think so. What do you see when you look at your self in a mirror.
catherine isabelle on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 12:05 am
You really think we would let you take over the energy field for yourself alone and we would stand by and do nothing. I don’t think so fucking cuck suckers.
karine jean pierre on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 12:29 am
Why cars manufacturers are not complaining on main streets media about EPA regulations put on them. Why nobody is speaking to real cars mechanics about how EPA rules made cars unreliable and difficult to repair. Because the both work together. Why no ones is talking about Nissan CTV transmission that is two metal disks and a steal belt. Why nobody is explaining how this setup is prone to problems because of the low coefficient of friction between the steel disks and the steel belt. Because they work together as one entity trying to control earth reality for themself.
Why are they both working together at destroying the car industry. Because earth is running out of natural resources because of the law of conservation of mass. It is our law of conservation of mass that we put in place to build earth as a slavery reality.
You get it now how much we hate you.
karine lafarge on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 12:32 am
Here is the Nissan CVT. Steel on steel is a bad way to transfer power. Everyone knows that including Nissan and the EPA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gx3mP7gFpIc
Jeeanlapote on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 12:47 am
Why do the main streets medias are only talking about Trump and nothing else? Because they are hiding the truth for you. They don’t want that some part of the population move into revenge mode and kill them. So they have to hide the truth as any cost. Now you know who to kill. Everyone on earth will die, this is unavoidable, but some people might decide to seek revenge before they die. Now you know who to kill. I gave you a full list.
Gerome lafiliere on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 1:06 am
If you dring a bottle of Coke you will fart the dioxyde of carbone. Why is that. Because the law of conservation of mass also applied to the human body. You will piss the liquid part of the Coke bottle and fart out the dioxyde of carbone. You can also burp out dioxyde of carbone. This is example of the application of conservation of mass. I told that we will kill everyone on earth using the conservation of mass.
Joe Lapruchette on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 1:27 am
Did you ever wonder why the insects don’t die during the winter season when it is -20C outside. Because they are not real, they are fake holographic projections. Everything is fake except the earth calculators (gravity, thermic, conservation of mass, …) that we control not them. I told that you are here to die. If the insects are fake, are the wild life animals real. Why the UN and WEF want to protect earth so badly if earth is not real. Are these people traitors?
alain leduc on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 1:33 am
Every fall the insectes reappear out of nowhere. They never die during the winter, even if the temperature of the soil is below 0 Celsius. Why is that? Because they are fake holographic projection. You know who to kill if you seeking revenge, I gave you a full list.
John stephaonus on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 1:39 am
Look the UN trying to convince earth population that insects are real. Look at them trying to convince you that earth is something real and beautiful worth saving, when it is the opposite.
https://www.youtube.com/@UNEP/videos
cathrine laporte on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 1:48 am
If they could, they would have already kill me. Why am I still alive and allow to tell the truth. Why am I not dead. Because I am untouchable and protected by the divine. I will live no matter what. Everyone else will die.
karime kalouche on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 1:58 am
Look at his fucking hair cut at 4:55. This is the hair cut of traitor that needs to be executed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzhk3z8hEK0
jeanne laporte on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:44 am
I hate the population of the planet, and I can wait to walk over earth population cadavers. I can wait for revelation 19 to happen. I can wait for the conservation of mass calculator to deliver to me your cadaver as per revelation 19.
And I saw an angel standing in the sun; and he cried with a loud voice, saying to all the fowls that fly in the midst of heaven, Come and gather yourselves together unto the supper of the great God;
18 That ye may eat the flesh of kings, and the flesh of captains, and the flesh of mighty men, and the flesh of horses, and of them that sit on them, and the flesh of all men, both free and bond, both small and great.
We are almost there.
Joe scarbafe on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:50 am
As the system collapse and pickup truck became unavailable because of the EPA, people cadavers will not be pick up and will be left there. This is what it says above.
You have a shortage of car mechanics. There will be no vehicles to pick up the cadavers of the dead. This is what revelation 19 is saying. We are almost there by looking at how fast car manufacturers are going bankrupt. See Nissan, Ford, GM.
alain fuckyou on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 3:35 am
I could have told you sonner about Nissan CVT and the EPA. But I promised myself that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I am not your friend and will never be, no reasons for me to tell your sooner about these things.
geral lafit on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:11 pm
You cannot win against us. The conservation of mass will give me your cadavers. You have destroyed the car industries and there will be no police force to protect the elites because of shortage of car mechanics and replacement parts. I am just waiting for earth population to die. Nothing will save you as we designed earth as a slavery center. In order to survive you have to enslave some part of the population to provide the hard manual labor needed to keep your supply chain alive and your self alive. We thought about everything. Enslaving the population will eventually result in social revolution and the destruction of the supply chain by people revolting against you.
On top of that people have wisely chosen death over life and have abandoned this civilization and will let it die. See car mechanics shortage for a proof of that. You are fucked. The elites are just parasites using money to force people to do the hard manual labor needed to keep the elites alive.
I have won already, you are already, you just don’t have the IQ needed to see it yet.
alain lajeunesse on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:18 pm
There is no such thing as an earth invasion from migrants. It is us that are dumping into a flesh body the souls that we wish to destroy.
urlaine lapeitite on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:34 pm
The book of life contains the name of the chosen ones. If your name is not in this book, you are the dead. You are dead inside. This is why the bible talk about the dead and the living. The dead are the earth population. The bible talk also about the truth. Mentioning things such as they only speak the language of lies. See my comments about car manufacturers and EPA. EPA has been lying to earth population since its creation. the EPA only speak the language of lies as mentioned in the bible. Same for politicians, bankers, and many others.
Heleine marcelle on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:36 pm
UN and WEF have been speaking the language of lies since their creation also. Everyone on earth speak only the language of lies as mentioned in the bible.
ulisse karoshy on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:39 pm
This is WEF speaking the language of lies, as it did since its creation and will continue to do until it is destroyed. Same with the Roman catholic church.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH_htJGgRq0
joelle Harminium on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:43 pm
Earth is populated with such pathetic losers.
johane laporte on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 2:55 pm
You are suck loser. You talk all time about how it is a human right to feel safe. This is a purpose of an handgun making you feel safe and capable of protecting yourself. A handgun make you feel safe. You have everything inverted on this fucking earth. It is ah human right to be able to carry and handgun on you because it make you feel safe. fucking losers.
Karine latoffe on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 3:10 pm
I copy the text below from some else. This is the best explanation I have heard. Again, lying instead of saying the truth. Typical earth inversion. Instead of saying that they don’t have the money, they will lie about it, every fucking time they lie about everything.
——————————————
NATO Head Says “Wartime Mindset” Needed;
Redirect “Pensions, Health, Social Security” To Military Spending
“I know spending more on defense means spending less on other priorities. But it is only a little less,” he continued, adding that “On average, European countries easily spend up to a quarter of their national income on pensions, health and social security systems.”
“We need a small fraction of that money to make our defences much stronger, and to preserve our way of life,” he proclaimed, reasoning that “freedom does not come for free.” Nato boss Mark Rutte calls on European members of Nato to spend less on pensions, health and social security and more on defence “to preserve our way of life”.
So the poor must pay for endless Nato wars? pic.twitter.com/gWi6ABthez
— John Moran (@RueDaungier) December 12, 2024
Hundreds of billions have been sent to Ukraine, and for what? How much more do they want? I don’t think many people will be fighting to defend the Globalist war machine run by utter lunatics intent on the destruction of the World.
https://modernity.news/2024/12/14/nato- … -spending/
“Only a little less” 😆
I find that people at the top of the political heap rarely make such statements off their own bat. They are, ‘guided’ shall we say. Now it’s the first time I have heard such a suggestion, SS, health care etc are the holy grail that no one want’s to talk about unless it’s assurances that the funding is good until 2030+. But any thinking person looking at the Western world’s financial system knows that these schemes (that’s a good word) are doomed to failure.
karime latrouosa on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 3:47 pm
Another inversion is the green economy will save the civilisation. Electrical cars are the future. Electrical are unreliable are just a mean for them to push people into their 15 min cities. Electrical where created as a mean to bankrupt car companies and push people into their smart cities. Just fucking inversion where ever you look.
Isabelle tronita on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 3:54 pm
Another inversion is that earth is beautiful and it is worth saving. When it is the total opposite. Earth is an ugly creation where there is animal shit and piss everywhere. Another inversion to make you believe something that is false.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqb0BufU4_o
In fact it is the opposite, earth is ugly and must be destroyed, the human specie is also a failure and must be destroyed. Another fucking inversion where they pretend that the human specie is an achievement when in fact it is a total failure
latoael germina on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 3:58 pm
Another inversion is that high tech will save the world and make people live better. When it is fact the opposite. Earth tech is primitive, we can barely build a reliable car engine that last more then 20 year. Your fucking computer microprocessor lose to much heat energy and are inefficient garbage. They inverted everything exactly like the bible said they would.
latiae joepute on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 4:04 pm
Another inversion, the elites tries to look intelligent by adding extra words to sound more intelligent, when in fact they are mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1kK-_o_-tY
latendree jachinth on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 4:17 pm
Another fucking inversion, we can achieve more and better things when we work together as one. What they mean is that we need slaves to do the hard manual labor so we can steal their hard labor to assure our own survival.
Just one inversion after another like the bible said they would do.
Joe latendresse on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 4:23 pm
UN Peacekeeping: Together for Peace
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtPziwhbrfg
alain garouge on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 4:29 pm
Another inversion women are weak and must be protected. When in fact women control earth from a position of weakness or victimhood. This is called in BDSM topping from the bottom. Controlling the dominant partner from a position of submission and weakness. Look into BDSM about control, domination and power exchange
“Women’s rights are being abused, threatened and violated around the world” – UN Chief at CSW67
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEYFL1h4gU8
alan parson on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 4:48 pm
Another inversion, universities exist to teach people how to be critical thinkers with an independent mind. It is the opposite. Universities are there to teach slavery. conformity and obedience toward to authority.
joe altune on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 4:56 pm
Another inversion, big heavy military equipment are efficient killing machine. When it is the opposite, small, light weight and rapide military equipment are where lethality is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5e16O0rJbX4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG9-PZNWZ00
joline lolinel on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 5:11 pm
Put a machine a gun on these, you will be amazed how lethal they are compare to big heavy tanks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1RCiaPlslg
jendron latuqe on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 5:14 pm
See what I mean
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqsVVZPQ540
karlmen latrousse on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 6:03 pm
I don’t like the actual military clothing. A handgun should be located in a chest harness and the ammunitions shout be located in pant’s pockets. I don’t believe in helmet and knife.
I would need access to firearms and an industrial sewing machine to test my ideas. I don’t believe in bullets proof vest has they might interfere with arm movements and are too heavy leadig to rapid physical exhaustion of the soldier.
I believe in a combination of 12 gauges semi-auto rifle with automatic rifles for cleaning room. Half of them have shotgun and half have automatic rifle. Automatic rifle serve as a backup while reloading the 12 gauge shot guns.
heline arloline on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 6:08 pm
You use the shotgun and shot them directly to the face using buck shot. Shotgun team go first in the room and shot them directly to the face, and them the automatic rifle team take over while they are reloading their shotguns.
latoufe scharlime on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 6:19 pm
I don’t like airplane such as F18, F22 and other garbage the ammunition loading capacity is too small. I like the A10 and similar type of airplane as troops support. I like small helicopter with machine gun. Easier to maintain and refuel.
Danils berthuaume on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 6:21 pm
I strongly disagree with the actual room cleaning procedure. 12 gauge shotgun need to be included in room cleaning procedure.
heline laporte on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 10:35 pm
There is a couple of songs that have strange title in them.
Heaven in a place on earth. Basically it is the same message as the WEF and UN telling you that earth is beautiful and worth protection when it is the opposite. This song is some kind of propaganda to push people into smart cites in order to protect earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2F4INQFjEI
There is this other one Eyes in sky that seems to imply that someone is constantly monitoring what is happening on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56hqrlQxMMI
I had a cat spying on me while I was smoking two cigarettes outside. This fucker was looking directly at me 20 meters away while I was smoking. Maybe the wild life is spying on us.
kalim Jerome on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 10:44 pm
I still stand by what I sais regarding earth conservation of mass calculator. I saw no failure of this calculator through my whole life. I am pretty sure they don’t control earth basic calculators. Otherwise they would not be pushing people to go live in smart cities by destroying the car manufacturers. Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die as predicted by the calculator of conservation of mass.
patrick legace on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 10:50 pm
I still stand by what I sais regarding earth conservation of mass calculator. I saw no failure of this calculator through my whole life. I am pretty sure they don’t control earth basic calculators. Otherwise they would not be pushing people to go live in smart cities by destroying the car manufacturers. Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die as predicted by the calculator of conservation of mass.
Each time I cut a piece of wood there is saw dust coming out of the blade. A perfect example that the calculator of conservation of mass is working perfectly as it should be. I never saw one failure of this calculator through my whole life.