It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle laploute on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 10:55 pm
I have never drill a hole in my whole life without creating material shaving. Never saw that. Another proof that the calculator of conservation of mass is working perfectly as it should be. I never saw one failure of this calculator through my whole life.
lapine lalonded on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:00 pm
Pollution and trash are a direct consequence of the calculator of conservation of mass. I never saw garbage disappear just like that. Only the chosen ones will live as it was intended when we created earth. Earth is an execution and slavery chamber.
latita james on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:09 pm
I never saw the waster water treatment plants decrease in size while the population is increasing in size. Therefore the calculator of conservation of mass is working perfectly as intended when we designed it. Only the chosen ones will live.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4l-4ehUqhc
grenaide karind on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:12 pm
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Do you still have any doubt?
obame lazyasshole on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:16 pm
It does not work this way for real human with a real flesh body. The intelligence is located into a sprit attached to you in a permanent manner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04AUzCYJQYM
karine latipita on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:22 pm
The book of live contain the names of human beings that have a spirit attached to them and serving as an intelligence and memory node. I think the bible call them the holy spirit.
The dead are people with a flesh body but no spirit attached to them
peitite lagrosse on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:24 pm
The book of life of revelation 20, I made a mistake.
And I saw the dead, small and great, stand before God; and the books were opened: and another book was opened, which is the book of life: and the dead were judged out of those things which were written in the books, according to their works.
ctv news on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:25 pm
From revelation 20:
And whosoever was not found written in the book of life was cast into the lake of fire.
pipi lagrange on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:30 pm
They are the dead of the bible. This is why they cannot see their own reflection in a mirror. Otherwise they would have noticed how ugly they are and how long their neck has gotten.
grandy haryime on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:37 pm
What do they say about vampires in movies. They cannot see their own reflection in a mirror because they are dead. Same thing here.
One explanation I read was that the mirror image meant the vampire’s soul; the vampire had no soul, hence no mirror image. –
Vixen Populi
https://mythology.stackexchange.com/questions/1023/origin-of-the-vampires-have-no-reflection-myth
betaline feremone on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:44 pm
You must have divine protection like I have to be able to safely visit the realm of the dead. This is what earth is, the realm of the dead. Exactly as described in some movies. Some people call this the underworld.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_IoL7g5Ub8
nadine marechal on Sun, 15th Dec 2024 11:52 pm
We control the realm of the dead through earth calculator such as gravity calculator, conservation of mass calculator, electrical calculator. Ultimately we control earth even if is not obvious to the dead. The realm of the dead is our creation not theirs.
April Wine on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:00 am
There is no such thing as the migrant invasion. It is us resurrecting the dead and putting them into a flesh body for final judgement as mentioned in revelation 20.
this is where we are currently as mentioned in the bible
And the sea gave up the dead which were in it; and death and hell delivered up the dead which were in them: and they were judged every man according to their works.
selenan underwrold on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:09 am
The bible call it the bottomless pit. It could also be called the underworld or the realm of the dead.
grand maman on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:17 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Canada firearms laws are violating a cosmic law. Weapons created to manipulate a population using the fear of death must be shared with the population you are trying to control. This laws should never be violated in any circonstances.
karine trudeau on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:20 am
WW1 and WW2 are a direct violation of the law mentioned above.
lapine chaude on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:38 am
Every governmental authorities that has authorized their police forces to carry an firearms to control people using the fear of death is in direct violation of the law mentioned above. That is basically all of planet earth with some except like Texas.
jamain ecnore on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:41 am
Using the fear of death as a mean to control other people is strictly forbidden. In the case of earth, this is done using handgun only available to the police forces.
obame thefraud on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:48 am
Earth will serve as an example for futur realities. We will make an example of earth for everyone to see.
karine forge on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:56 am
Most police forces of the world are in direct violation of the principle mentioned above. It is perfectly fine to have a reality based on violence, but you must respect the cosmic laws. Same as it is perfectly fine to have a reality based on sex only. You are just fucking losers unfit for dimensional travel and realities travel.
Farther joe on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 1:05 am
We are going to make of earth an example to make that other realities are not destroyed by stupid people like earth elites. This is about protecting other realities against people that seek to take control of them and change them to fit their personal agenda, such as the Jews did with earth.
Ulyse rachid on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 1:09 am
Fucking loser at the UN and WEF that seek to change earth reality to fit their personal agenda.
Jerome Powell on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 1:17 am
Where do you think all these sexual fantasies on porn videos are coming from. They are coming from a sexual reality. We cannot give you access to the rest of the creation you are too stupid for that. We will kill everyone on earth and you will serve as an example of what not to do.
ctv news on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 1:30 am
You simply don’t have the IQ needed for dimensional travel or reality travel. You are basically mentally retarded and unfit for dimensional travelling. You inverted earth reality to take control of it. You know how much damage you will cause to other reality.
Jeroke power on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 2:42 am
I have a impression of déjà vu that I have seen these kind of female shape before with long straight legs, skinny and tall. They are not from earth, I think. See at 10:47
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHIl0-QxObI
alain depuis on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 3:09 am
earth is in violation of a lot of cosmic laws. I don’t remember all of them. Firearms laws on earth are one of them. Inverting a reality to take control of a reality is a violation of a cosmic law also.
Jon lemure on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 3:18 am
Earth inter specie reproduction took place on earth. It is also a violation of a cosmic law. Using firearms as a way to control a population using the fear of death is also of violation of cosmic law. You have to share your firearms with the population to avoid a penalty.
karine lapotel on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 3:22 am
You cannot take a sexual reality and invert it into a asexual reality. This is a violation of a cosmic law also. I am just explaining to you some concepts.
Jarame Yasim on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 3:25 am
Inter specie reproduction is violation of cosmic law as it destroy the original creation. A lot of this took place on earth, I suspect.
Grahoe electircal on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:05 am
The tentative to install an one world government is also a violation of a cosmic law. It seeks to change to original purpose of a reality into something else to the benefit of a small group. Things like the International tribunal are also a direct violation of a cosmic law. Europe is in severe violation of a various cosmic laws by trying to install a one world government for its own benefit.
Europe and the Jews were big advocate for multiculturalism that it basically a violation of a cosmic laws where they seek to eliminate the original species to replace it with another specie for their own benefit.
Earth will be made an example for the rest of the universe to is and remember for ever.
Regis labaume on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:14 am
The creation of a structure of authority (judge, police forces) by using the fear of death (firearms only accessible to the police forces) is also a violation of a cosmic law. It is an attempt to change to original reality for its personal benefit. You have to openly share your firearms with the population to be in compliance.
Jerome petite on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:21 am
The creation of feminism is again a cosmic violation. It is done in the goal to modify the original sexual reproduction process. It is done in the goal of changing the original reality. This is mainly a Jewish idea.
It is amazing how much you have no respect for the people that have originally designed earth reality. You sabotage his work.
Aelaine ratabouille on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:36 am
We are unable to locate on earth the original species because of your past actions. You will be punished for that.
Balance layela on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:58 am
Everything I am talking about is mentioned in the bible.
And the angels which kept not their first estate, but left their own habitation, he hath reserved in everlasting chains under darkness unto the judgment of the great day.
The bible mention somethins such as, the angles that left their first estate. Meaning you left your allocated creation to invade somebody else creation.
The bible also says: you where GODS but now you will die as human. You have been seen on earth as a punishment for your past behaviors.
But you will die like mere mortals; you will fall like every other ruler.”
The conservation of mass algorithm could be seen as your punishment.
yellen powell on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:03 pm
Everyone on earth will die make no mistake about that. The conservation of mass guarantee that. Only the chosen will live.
berteanl denis on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:06 pm
Fucking cock suckers.
oralime welaib on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:22 pm
Fucking narcists with an over inflated ego. Their perfect hair cut and clothing are a visual representation of their narcissism Fucking pathetic low IQ cock suckers.
travis Ulyse on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 12:46 pm
How Chicago Cleans 1.4 Billion Gallons Of Wastewater Every Day | Deep Cleaned | Insider
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4l-4ehUqhc
This is your punishment as mentioned in the bible: But you will die like mere mortals; you will fall like every other ruler.”
This a perfect example of the law of conservation of mass in action. Everyone on earth will die and there is nothing you can do against it.
ulyseie sarchovy on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 1:28 pm
This is one of your fucking punishment among many others.
Who cares about toilets? | World Toilet Day | United Nations | UN Water (2021)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXB5YHPn8xk
jerome powell on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 5:20 pm
It is possibility, not sure yet, that I might receive a superhumain body which can never died, with fast healing, no sleep needed and extreme physical force. If it the case, I will come to kill some of you personally, including all the Jewish people of earth.
kamala obama on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 9:13 pm
A wise man/woman life is based around fuck you. This is what she did and I did the same thing more the once in the past.
Resignation of Canada’s Finance Minister was a ‘total shock’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr922ovhsAo
The Gambler (2014) – F*** You Scene (7/10) | Movieclips
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
Harris Freeland on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 9:34 pm
Kamala did the same thing as Freeland but in a more subtle way by sabotaging herself during the electoral campaign. Harris life is also based around fuck you. You will never read that in the main street media.
forbleapote on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 9:42 pm
I told you that you lost western civilization and it will not be rebuild after the collapse.
Me, Freeland and Harris share the same life philosophy based around fuck you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
Heline kelaine on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:16 pm
Chrystia Freeland, vice-première ministre et ministre des Finances, a annoncé sa démission sur les réseaux sociaux quelques heures avant le dépôt, à la Chambre des Communes, d’un énoncé budgétaire. Elle demeure toutefois députée fédérale de University–Rosedale.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uBVH4041hQ
I did something similar when I was working. This is a typical fuck you. I was a team leader at one point, one day I show up in my boss office and said, I dont want responsibilities, name somebody else to replace. The person that replace me was just hired 2 months before an he had no experience for the job. You should have seen the face of my replacement. Even him thought it was completely fuck up situation. This is how you sabotage a company from the inside. I kept my job for the next 3 years dointga shit job and the bare minimum and then I was layoff.
obame protector on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:33 pm
You should have seen the face of my replacement when he was named team leader. The guy was married and had children, he could not say no, but he knew that he was not the right candidat. Moment like these as such sweet moment in a life of someone when you are capable of fucking over the system that has been fucking you over for 35 year.
It is like saying, you denied me my right to carry an handgun on me, I will fuck up your civilization. These are the moments you never forget.
lapress jacith on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:43 pm
I remember that when I was named as team leader, the first thing I did is to threaten is a sublimable manner if my boss refuse to increase my salary. My salary was increased by 70%. This is a typical example of domination from of position of inferiority. If I resigned my manager would look like an incompetent toward his boss and he could not let that happen.
SO nice to dominate from a position of inferiority when you can.
ukairnre freeland on Mon, 16th Dec 2024 11:51 pm
If you understand how earth slavery system works, as a man your only choice is to stay single and not have any kids. It is best to become asexual. This give you an small edge against the system, as it is easier to say fuck you to the system.
Once you are married and have kids you are entrapped into the slavery system of earth. The woman and divorce courts own your life.
When you understand that, you can have a pretty nice life in the slavery plantation called earth.
jasnune greadane on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 12:06 am
The reason why I recommend men to become asexual is that women could use false rape claims to manipulate a man or extract money from him. Once you understand how the slavery system works, single men with an high IQ can have a nice life on earth while doing the minimum toward maintaining earth civilization.
The reason why they created so many loves song, is to suggest to men that marrying a women will make your life better.
It is another inversion typical earth inversion. In fact it makes your life worst by enslaving the man toward a women, the government. This is how slave are controlled on earth.
penis latouffe on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 10:03 am
This is funny as fuck. The women back is laying on top the guy penis. If if funny when he says OK. Again this comes from Thailand. They never disappoint.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0g2sXAcPDVY
Thailand rules on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 10:12 am
Look at her sucking the bottle as if she was sucking a penis. Thailand never disappoint.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vVcv1iDLuRM