It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
jaline joelone on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 11:03 am
There will be no négociations with UK, Europe, Israel or the Jews. All trades and diplomatic relations will all of them will be stopped.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oJ-uDshuBg
reariode canadina on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 12:14 pm
Dont worry nothing will happen. It is not because Canada Tire and President choice are actual banks like RBC that someone will try to take over Canada and dismantle the federal government just because of Canada firearms laws.
Nobody will ever to dismantle your precious canada just to get back his right to carry an handgun on him.
qurna lamine on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 12:35 pm
I told you that the West is dying because of the rapide demographic decline of Whites people. This is purpose of mass migration into Whites nations, to keep a dying nations artificially alive. You can see that the West dying as I said many times, people just don’t have any IQ to see it.
We should have left the West die and not try to keep it alive artificially with mass migration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wu5vo0E0jMo
I told you that there is currently a redrawing of the world power structure map. The biggest loser will be the West
Brodel lagourde on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 1:04 pm
Regarding the Panama canal bridge story, this is how you destroyed an nation from the inside. It is men like me that have destroyed the West from the inside. Men like me have killed the West from the inside and we are proud of that. see at 6:13.
You don’t want to give me my right to carry an handgun on me, I will destroy your nations front the inside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wu5vo0E0jMo
joel normura on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 1:08 pm
If I become a King I will completely destroy North America for ever. Nothing will be left after I am done with it.
patrilc paorlur on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 1:24 pm
People don’t understand the irony, They tried to save Whites nations by flooding them with immigrants. It had the opposite effect, it destroyed the nations. Some men like me got upset and destroy our nations from the inside. Same story as Russia. You will never hear think tank say what I just said above. The West is dead and it is not coming back. The earth power structure is shifting out of the West toward other nations. It over for the West. If you are rich enough, you should leave the West.
regit laveame on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 1:34 pm
There is a structure being established in case someone decide to completely collapse the federal government and stop paying the federal employees. The alternative structure is there to keep a certain control over the supply chain without a the need of federal government. The setup is made to redirect supply toward a Militia army that will do the retaliation against internal enemies. It is a way to create a supply chain to keep an army operating for a long time without the use of the federal government Just need to turn it on and retaliation will start.
graile traverse on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 1:46 pm
The way the structure is setup, we should be albe to kill all the Jews living in north America easy. We should be able to remove the Jewish cancer out of North America. On top of that, the rest of the world want the Jewish race exterminated. I doubt we will fail this time.
trudelle lapierre on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 1:52 pm
The beauty of the alternative structure is that it can still connect itself the international supply chain to feed an militia army with food and equipment. We can collapse the federal government and not lost access to the international supply chain. That is the beauty of this setup.
joeleany xena on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 2:00 pm
The beauty of the alternative structure is the fact that it is decentralize structure. It will be really difficult to shut it down unlike the federal government.
It is easy to shut down the federal government, you destroy the parliament, kill all the politicians and transfer all the money from the federal government into the alternative structure.
weilleman farte on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 2:22 pm
I told you that I know how to do war.
Realle Lawelad on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 8:10 pm
I told you that we can kill everyone on earth and repopulate earth using a sexual realm:
0:17,1:19,1:28,1:47,2:28,3:26,3:27,3:30
I know some of them are CGI, but it still show an high level of understanding of male sexuality and fantasies. The only thing we need is a couple of well chosen male procreators.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fVl9JrbbeE
Gramme Mass on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 8:25 pm
It is possible that doing war is just some kind of training to build a future King. It is possible that North America will be destroyed by a milita group just to train a King at the art of war. Basically we are not here to save North America. North America will be thrown into chaos just to train a King how to do war.
ilialine zerome on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 8:35 pm
The population of earth is mentally retarded. So I am explaining to you everything as if I was talking to a little kid, because I know you are too stupid to figure this out on your own.
Nadime isabelle on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 8:43 pm
Thailand gets it, unlike the fucking losers of Europe, UK, Israel, Canada and the US. The woman dance inside a cage. Meaning she is prisoner being used and abused for the sexual gratification of men that own her. Fucking Whites people, just fucking losers men.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PP-NX6s7aDo
Jeremai valoir on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 8:51 pm
Look Thais people love firearms, unlike the losers living in Canada. The West is dead, everyone that has a certain IQ can see it.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PBPvmPls8Xo
Tramway Ovamlying on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 8:59 pm
This is the best that the West has to offer, Colbert and Meyers, Mayers. Are you proud of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55pyJLyycYk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e95DgnJ_LYg
leleia zera on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 9:05 pm
The West is a boring place and men like me have no emotional attachment toward the West. Fuck Canada is a boring shit hole.
Heline karliah on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 10:34 pm
There is category a women with a different programming only accessible to powerful men. I call them testosterone enhancers. Tall women, skinny long straight legs. I don’t remember what kind of sexual programing the have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwlT0Py9ENM
valerie plnagte on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 12:00 am
I never said I will be your king. All I said is that there is an alternative power structure being setup to retaliate against internal enemies including politicians, Jews and Israel. Notice that nobody is able to identify who is running this alternative power structure. Is it run from the inside of earth or from outside of earth from another dimension.
heline awer on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 12:05 am
9:16 I call these women testosterone enhancers. They serve a specific purpose but I am not sure what it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RatiF_pUo4M
funny lara on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 1:41 am
This is fucking funny. Doggy style sexual position is now call art.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6RcdwQbKqg
aline alronea on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 6:59 am
I told you, they European are fagot sissies men, this is why they drive sport cars. American mens get this right, a real man drive a big pickup truck, because is it comfortable and can bring you everywhere you wants. It is easy to get in and out of pickup truck compare to a super cars.
Europeans are fucking pathetic feminized losers men. I just have hatred for fucking European men for pushing this progressiveness values on to the world. Fucking fagots.
Only losers men respect women. Women are fuck toys, will always be fuck toys and should be treated as such. Women life is worthless and they should be killed as soon as they are over 30 years old. We should reestablished the old order of this reality.
jean alineau on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 7:00 am
Here is the video going with me comment above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r67sUScOIis
kalim querin on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 7:09 am
I disagree with saving planet earth and civilisation. You cannot save civilization because of the conservation of mass. I say fuck it, we should fight each other for natural ressources until everyone on earth is dead. It is the unavoidable fate of earth: dead of everyone.
baline aquera on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 7:22 am
Some of you, piece of shit feminized Whites men, must be upset that GOD chose an masculine asshole man like me that sees women as fuck toy to repopulate earth. Fucking low IQ losers.
beterlain zera on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 7:46 am
This is funny as fuck. The dead of earth, that are already dead and cannot see their reflection in a mirror, trying to avoid death when they are already dead and confined for eternity to live in the bottomless pit of death. Fuck low IQ losers.
jerome poweel on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 7:57 am
There is really something called the underworld, it is not a movie fiction, but real place named earth. I am having so much fund this morning laughing at the dead. I am surround by the dead that cannot see their own reflection in a mirror.
This is not a fiction movie. This is real and I live in a world with the immortal dead. Earth should be rename the underworld.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_IoL7g5Ub8
Veriza joeteen on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 8:05 am
The dead already dead inside and outside fearing death so much that they had to steal away my right to carry an handgun on me. What a fucking bunch of loser you all are. You are already dead, why are you afraid of death so much. I told you are just fucking loser. Only loser that are already dead will come up with something called Canada firearms laws,
veronique clouthier on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 8:11 am
This is why the bible called this the second death. GOD will come and kill the dead that are already dead, for a second time and for eternity this time. You are here because you rebel against GOD and where send here until the day of your second death. From revelation 20: The lake of fire is the second death.
1 Then I saw a great white throne and him who was seated on it. The earth and the heavens fled from his presence, and there was no place for them. 12 And I saw the dead, great and small, standing before the throne, and books were opened. Another book was opened, which is the book of life. The dead were judged according to what they had done as recorded in the books. 13 The sea gave up the dead that were in it, and death and Hades gave up the dead that were in them, and each person was judged according to what they had done. 14 Then death and Hades were thrown into the lake of fire. The lake of fire is the second death. 15 Anyone whose name was not found written in the book of life was thrown into the lake of fire.
Everything is resolved. Earth is the underworld where the dead are waiting their second dead.
daniel pillon on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 8:19 am
I was right earth is not worth saving. It is the realm of the dead. The chosen ones will be removed from here and transported somewhere else at the time of GOD choosing. I was right earth is fucking ugly, exactly like the underworld is depicted as a ugly place in movies. You are all fucking low IQ loser with no morality. this is why you are here.
blenid carly on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 8:22 am
Heaven is a place on earth is an inversion. They inverted everything to hide the fact that we live in the underworld with the dead already dead that are afraid of death so they created Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOGEyBeoBGM
Xero Nero on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 8:42 am
I was right, there is no such thing as an migrants invasion. The bible explain what is currently happening really clearly. From revelation 20. The dead are being resurrected for final judgement and put in a flesh body. There is no point doing anything other then waiting.
And the sea gave up the dead which were in it; and death and hell delivered up the dead which were in them: and they were judged every man according to their works.
alain terina on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 8:49 am
I was right also. The underworld had a limited lifespan. GOD build it this way. Conservation of mass will determine the life span of earth based on the limited natural ressources available and the rate of consumption of natural resources.
The underworld was also designed using a backward entropic degradation clock. Meaning everything is this realms is also dying. There is no point trying to accomplish anything, We are just helping the dead to become more powerful and have more control over our life. The best approach if you can, is the sabotage earth from the inside.
patrick legace on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 9:00 am
If you can sabotage earth from the inside, I suggest you do it. It is from my point the view the best course of action. You don’t work and cooperated with the dead. You seek to actively destroy them and hurt them. They try to enslave us for their personal benefit, you get back at them any way you can.
Denims belinda on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 9:04 am
You don’t save the realm of dead, meaning earth. You do nothing if you can and you wait its destruction. You don’t save something as ugly as earth. Earth is literally a ball of shit and made of oceans of piss.
obam barrack on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 9:06 am
I think I solved the mystery of earth creation.
Not sure what else there is to say about the underworld.
Florid larin on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 10:03 am
In itself the underworld is a reality. It is a really based on violence and sex. It is a really in itself with a specific set of rules. Canada firearms laws seek to destroy the original creation by restricting access to firearms. It is a destruction of the orignal concepts of what the underworld is. The destruction of reality is illegal is attempt to steal some else work. This si what we have here with Canada firearms laws. it is an inversion of the original reality to take control. This is highly illegal and punishment will be given.
Hello punisher on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 10:17 am
They original creation was a underworld with a lof of violence and BDSM kind of sex. The Jews and the Whites Europeans have been successful as destroying the work of a creator by inverting everything. In a underworld reality, firearms should be easily available and sexual debauchery should be norm. Punishment is coming.
xeros setarine on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 10:25 am
Everything depend of what kind of superhuman body I will get. Depending of my final form, I might come and kill some of you personally. Everyone that was part the creation of Canada firearms laws will be killed by torture. The Jews will be complete exterminated out of this reality and other reality.
jerome powell on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 11:36 am
You are to be executed because earth population does not have the IQ needed for dimensional travel. We are going to kill everyone on earth and move forward with our project. You are too mentally retarded to leave earth and will not to be allowed to do dimensional travel.
earse one on Thu, 19th Dec 2024 11:40 am
Earth population failed the test, except a couple of chosen ones.
Karine vjermeh on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:14 am
Trump Warns EU: Buy American Oil & Gas Or Face Tariff War
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/trump-warns-eu-buy-american-oil-gas-or-face-tariff-war
This is a form of retaliation the US is doing on Europe for the creation progressive values. US and I believe that a lot of problem the US have a direct consequences of US, UK and Israel trying to destroy the US from within to conquer it later on. This will push Europe to chose a between US and Russia. It is a from a retaliation from the US toward Europe. Another question that someone might ask, is the US and Russia secretly working together to destroy Europe and cut it off from the international supply chain. Israel is next on line for retaliation.é
I told you that we will retaliate against Europe, UK and Israel.
lertie wellen on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:19 am
Forget the commena abobe. I just realize this is just world wide theather to install one work govement. Everyone know that all the world govment work togteher. My mistake. I go emotionally invle in somehting that is not good for me. Go fuck yourself. Nobode has ever take denied me the right to carry an hangund without consequenfces.
verixle xerna on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:21 am
I am waiting for the day you will come to ask for my help. I dare you to come and ask me for help. Just fucking do it.
Bereial wellne on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:27 am
Sortry I made dthe misitakl to attqahe myself emtioann to planet eaarth, you koke m,yh nes siotyhe of writing
Graohoe jone on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:31 am
I am uunalbe to emitoinal attahe muyself to palnet earth and its opulatyn, What you shold I do, since I hate all of yoiu. I hope yhour arropice my8 co mm ent
beriale caroline on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:46 am
Look at these fucking losers. You can kill them bare handed with a stick with spikes at the end.
Look how physically weak these cock suckers are. Why waste a bullet on people, when you can easily kill them bared handed. There is a certain pleasure to kill someone you deeply hate bare handed and after have a procreation orgy next toe the cadavers of the people you just kill.
You guys know nothing of the real humans procreation process and how to use war as a way to repopulate and create an aggressive population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7DSEyMkTgE
Selane gomear on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:53 am
The smell of blood, sperm and sweat, during procreation. Have you tried that. Maybe you should. Maybe we should all try it.
yelena gratme on Fri, 20th Dec 2024 10:57 am
Men roaming North America like a band of savages killing and raping everything that comes their way until the die or kill everyone. Do you understand what I am trying to tell you.