It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
karine farie on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 10:15 am
Here is the US we have a loser like Schumer speaking about shit nobody cares all day long:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyEfR8CYYUM
In thailand, you have shit like this, that is much more fun if you ask me.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vVcv1iDLuRM
lapine heleine on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 10:21 am
In a big demographic decline, talented men will be in demand. Place like Canada is at a big disadvantage against place like Brazil and Thailand.
The West is done (US, Europe, Canada, UK, Australia, NZ) people don’t have the IQ needed to see yet.
laind heline on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 10:26 am
Canada is a nation of losers populated with losers only. Go look at the Canada firearms form where you need the permission of your wife to own a gun. This is what a nations of losers would do. Ask men to beg their wife for the right to own a firearms, Canada where mediocrity is welcomed
Carline Geralnd on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 10:32 am
I always had big disdain and lack of respect for men that tell me they respect women. I only have respect for men that consider women only good as sex toys. I only respect men that hates women and want to use them as fuck toy and discard them after they are done with them. If you worship women you are a fucking loser in my book.
regis leavume on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 11:00 am
The West is done. Men in the West are too stupid to be kept alive. They must die. During the demographic decline, people will leave the West and migrant toward Thailand and Brazil. Canada is already a place populated with only losers as the rest of the West. Keep your eyes on Thailand and Brazil, this is where the future is.
Itold Yyouso on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 11:09 am
I told you that we can kill everyone on earth and repopulate using chosen men and newly created improved female. I told you that we own a sexual realm just for that purpose.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vVcv1iDLuRM
farime hakin on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 11:32 am
We have no intentions of coming to save earth population against its demise caused by the law of conservation of mass. We will let everyone die on earth, and repopulate if need be. I love torturing earth population mentally with my comments before you all die. I love seeing the mental distress in your face, the same way I was in mental distress when you denied to right to carry an handgun me for temporary psychological support.
lalo yellen on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 11:51 am
Read my comments above they are full of hatred. This is the definition of hatred in its purest form. I am not a man anymore, I am made of pure hatred.
“The most terrifying force of death comes from the hands of Men who wanted to be left Alone. They try, so very hard, to mind their own business and provide for themselves and those they love. They resist every impulse to fight back, knowing the forced and permanent change of life that will come from it. They know that the moment they fight back, their lives as they have lived them, are over. The moment the Men who wanted to be left alone are forced to fight back, it is a form of suicide. They are literally killing off who they used to be. Which is why, when forced to take up violence, these Men who wanted to be left alone, fight with unholy vengeance against those who murdered their former lives. They fight with raw hate, and a drive that cannot be fathomed by those who are merely play-acting at politics and terror. TRUE TERROR will arrive at these people’s door, and they will cry, scream, and beg for mercy… but it will fall upon the deaf ears of the Men who just wanted to be left alone.”
I am not a man anymore, I am the definition of raw hate.
jegile lapierre on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 12:00 pm
I will continue on my path of raw hatred until I kill everyone on earth upon which I will exit my form of raw hatred to become an human again or until raw hatred kill me. I can only exit my raw hatred state after I kill everyone on earth.
jeus nazarht on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 12:16 pm
Revelation 19 is also about GOD exiting his state of raw hatred also.
16 On his robe and on his thigh he has this name written:
king of kings and lord of lords.
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
Germaih Natroudel on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 1:28 pm
If I get a new upgraded body, I will come and kill Domonic Leblanc bare handed for his role increasing restriction on automatic rifle in Canada.
martine saeame on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 1:39 pm
There is only one way this whole story ends. Exactly as describe in the bible, I kill everyone on earth so I can get of my state permanent raw hatred and become a normal persona again, so I can move forward and become a creator of reality again, I must kill everyone one earth. IS is the only way I will be able to exit my stage of pure hatred. This is one of the meaning of revelation 19. Seeing the cadaver, you know it is over, and can become a real human again.
It is not over until I have all of cadaver in front of me.
Dominic Leblanc on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 3:08 pm
If I can I will come and kill your personally because you did not have the courage to abolish Canada firearms laws. I will torture you before you death. I just have hatred in me and it must be evacuated somehow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z3qua-Y7hY
heei be on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 3:12 pm
If I get a super human body. I will kill every Canadian and Quebecer politicians bare handed. Everyone of you. Nobody fucks with my handguns and denied me personal protection.
joe lagored on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 3:49 pm
What is a super human body. It is a set of special mathematical equations that are attached to someone that are there to modify or annulate the effect that earth calculators have on the flesh body of someone. It is a special set of mathematical equations that are unique and attached to only one person and cannot be transferred to someone else.
obame mielate on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 4:07 pm
I forgot to say that is a two ways set of equations. It also magnified the effect that your flesh body has on earth reality. It basically modified the input given into earth calculateur to make you stronger. For example, if I hit someone with my fist, my physical forces will be multiplied by 100. The input into the earth calculator will be 100 time bigger then before.
So the input variable given to the earth calculator will 100 more. It is total configurable when well designed.
heleine welaine on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 4:09 pm
I will come to kill some of you personally if I get a super humain body.
qeudre treavel on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 4:11 pm
This is the best example that I could find of super human body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na38B-J4ZPw
ceraphik latrime on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 4:29 pm
This is the best example that I could find of super human body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na38B-J4ZPw
Her mind is connected directly to earth calculators. She sends her minds thoughts directly to the earth calculators. This is the Cadillac of super human body.
denise grahaim on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 4:41 pm
I see this world just as a set of mathematical equations also called reality. Earth is not real for me, it is just a set of mathematical equations. I will come to kill some of you if I can get what I want.
regis labaume on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 5:00 pm
Canadian dollar drops below 70 cents to U.S. for first time since 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-RJ62vFXZc
He will be forced to raise internet exaltly like Argentina and Brazil did to the protect the currency. Canada is about to become Argentina 2.0.
https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/interest-rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/interest-rate
Depending how severe the demographic decline is, you will see talented people leaving for other nations. You are about to see the map of the world to be completely reshaped if there is enough oil for that.
jews americas on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 5:08 pm
The real purpose of allowing mass migration into Whites nations fast to fight a demographic decline and avoid a reshaping of the world map and a shifting of power centers. Now that the demographic decline is a world wide thing, the West will not be able to fight against a reshaping of the world map and power structure, if there is enough oil for that. I predict that Brazil and South East Asia will do real well and the West will die forever.
xenae qeuw on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 5:20 pm
If the goal of COVID was to depopulate the world, COVID will also reshape the world map because of an abrupt population decline. Power center governing the world will move to other locations. The West will die. We should have left the West die instead of trying to save it with mass migration. No matter what I predict the death of the West.
Don reapper on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 5:32 pm
Even the internet think Canada is a nation of losers. Look at the comment section, in the thumbnail, you can see a women underwear with a camel toe. This shit is funny, even the internet is making fun of Canada. Canada the nations of loser and pathetic beta male that worship women instead of seing them as fuck toys. C’est trop drole qualisse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GYgGDCHyDY
bethany legault on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 6:04 pm
If the fed does not lower the rate, Canadian investment will move their money in the US for a better return. This mechanism was well understood in past. Apparently this has been forgotten. Canada will be forced to raise rates to double digit eventually to stop the fall of the dollar and money moving out of Canada into the US
for a better return.
alain xenoe on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 6:22 pm
Maybe my comment above is the real reason why Freeland say fuck you.
A wise man/woman life is based around fuck you.
vero clautier on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 6:24 pm
Things will be really interesting in 2025.
yellow poweel on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 6:55 pm
I have my own opinion. The camera man represent narcissism. This video could be interpreted in multiple ways. Another one, could be that someone is trying to design a better women and he is showing various body type. I told you that we have a sexual realm available for repopulation purposes. I told you that we can kill everyone one earth and repopulate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T93YHrargJ8
sdabrin grahaim on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 7:03 pm
We have a sexual realm to turn asexual men into procreators. I don’t know why I am writing all these things. It is what it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM_fS81R2Tg
Treaudle loser on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 7:05 pm
I just saw the writing on the wall at the entrance, King Thong.
We have a sexual realm to turn asexual men into procreators. I don’t know why I am writing all these things. It is what it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM_fS81R2Tg
Obam laroauf on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 7:20 pm
There is a reason why I am talking about a sexual realm, I just don’t share some of detail about my private sexual activities with the rest of the world. It is not of your fucking business if we want to kill all the population of earth repopulate.
Jerohe kalape on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 7:31 pm
Earth fucked it up with diversity, inclusion racial procreation and multiculturalism. You destroyed the orignal species. The was a Jewish long term plan to dominate the world, racial procreation in order to destroy the orignal species. The Jews are even not hiding it. Earth is useless to us, therefore we can kill everyone on it.
xenao zera on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 7:35 pm
United Nations is another entity that believe in racial procreation where the goal is to erase the original specie and control the world.
Gabriel atal on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 7:51 pm
Must have been something to see the original species before someone decided to exterminate them using racial procreation. Look at how everyone on earth is ugly, skinny, stupid, look weak without any real muscle mass. That is what you get with racial procreation, an inferior specie easy to control and enslave for your personal benefits. Exactly like the Jews said they would do.
Patine laconne on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 8:11 pm
Immigration Expert Claims Trump’s Mass Deportations Could Cost ‘More Than A Trillion Dollars’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3JXNuFQsSY
The goal of mass migration in the West was to fight against a Whites demographic decline. A demographic decline would that have lead the West to lost its control over the world. The power world map would have been redrawn and the West would have lost its influence over the world. This would meant the death of Israel and Jewish control over the world. I made comments about that above. There would be no mass deportation. They are just saying that to calm down Whites nationalists that threaten to sabotage the nation from the inside. Deporting immigrants would mean a lower population and a redraw of the power structure of earth. They cannot allow.
obame rebuilkd on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 8:14 pm
GOD has his own project for planet earth. Kill everyone and repopulate.
ulyse quaran on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 8:20 pm
Their strategy is to continue to fill up the West with immigrants to keep their control over the world. They hope that mass migration will not turn the West into a 3 world shit hole. We already know that they failed and the West was turned into a shit hole by mass migration.
terminet Wellan on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 8:23 pm
Nothing will change under Trump leadership. I predict that he will bring in even more immigrants that Biden did. Trump is there to temporary appease Whites men so they don’t destroy the US from the inside like I did with Canada.
karine tranversela on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 10:53 pm
Military chest harness contain so much bullshit. First you cannot put anything in the back, because you won’t be able to comfortably sit in seat. Second the weight in the front of Harness will put the harness down. You are limited the forces of gravity when you designed a chest harness. The amount of weight you can put in the front is really limited by the gravity forces and the size of the person wearing it. Plus a cheat harness compress your chest and sometime make your breathing difficult.
A chest harness is something that is a special piece of clothing that is desing to fit only one person. The design is based on the body shape of someone. There is not such thing as a generic chest harness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPwmxCS92Pw
jeake powell on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 11:24 pm
Everything is an inversion here. In the movies handguns are portraited as deadly. If you inverse this, you get handguns are not as deadly as portraited.
They need an way to enforce authority on earth using the fear of death. Handguns need to be seen as deadly. I think that is the purpose of restrictives handguns laws, to hide the fact that they are not as deadly as seen in movies.
yellow peowwl on Tue, 17th Dec 2024 11:40 pm
The pockets are empty because their square form is perfect. The weight in a pocket would pull the down the bottom of the pocket and pull down the whole front of the vest. Very difficult to make a confortable chest harness. It is all about projecting an image of lethally to be able to enforce authority using the fear of death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpCSr9jkOic
menotte lapine on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 12:02 am
Chest military tactical vest act as thermal isolation layer. You get really warm wearing one. There is no you can wear one all day long in the summer heat without suffering from heavy heat exhaustion. It is total BS that is made to keep earth authority system in place using the fear of death. It is all about controlling the slavery camp called earth and not lose control of their slaves.
jamins retround on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 12:11 am
This is why I am saying Canada is violating a cosmic law with its firearms laws by not sharing its firearms with the population. This is an attempt to modify a reality and take control of it using the fear of death. The handguns is associated with the fear of death. It is highly illegal and will be punished for that.
jerohe kalema on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 12:18 am
Canada firearms laws and other nations firearms laws are an attempt at taking control of a creation using the fear of death. We cannot let this happen anymore as the work of a creator is being destroyed without his authorization. We need to protect the work of future creators and earth will serve as an example. Severe punishments is needed and will be give to send a strong message.
Same thing with feminism that is an attempt to modify the normal sexual procreation process of a specie in order to take control of a reality and a specie. This is also legal. We will protect the work of future creator by using earth as an example.
geriel lapote on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 12:50 am
there is a plan being put in place if the gouvernement collapses to still be able to run the supply chain and money system by taking control of the canada central bank.
https://www.pcfinancial.ca/fr/
https://www.ctfs.com/content/ctfs3/en/homepage.html
https://www.cdic.ca/depositors/list-of-members/
Heavy retaliations will occurs one way or another
jeremai babej on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 3:25 am
0:13 that is your fucking fortress of solitude
Notice the tones of voice he is using.
0:00 to 0:20 is basically how I lived my life so far and will continue to live my life until I die. You can all go fuck yourself, I will not come to save earth. You are on your own.
Someone fully understand my life philosophy and why I will never get married or have kids.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
jonaht kolec on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 3:38 am
0:13 that is your fortress of fucking solitude.
Killing everyone on earth will make me happy because I love solitude. Earth will become my fortress of solitude. I can be trained to become a procreator later on using a sexual realm. I told you the futur is already decided, everyone on earth will be killed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XamC7-Pt8N0
jeremai babe on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 3:44 am
How much oil does it take,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmbZwxEnAFc
jeremai babe on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 3:54 am
Maybe my training to become a procreator has already started in my fortress of solitude but I did not mentioned it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T93YHrargJ8
Fucking stupid low IQ useless cock sucker
aline grahoma on Wed, 18th Dec 2024 10:37 am
There is a structure being setup. Once it is done, will be collapse the whole government and stop paying the salary of all the people working for the government. We deleting the federal government in a permanente manner, all governmental agencies, and fires all government employer. Canadians firearms laws will be abolished because we are abolishing the federal government including the RCMP.
Retaliation is coming in a big way. Killing of all people working for the UN, EPA, FDA, politicians, banker, NGO, think tanks, media, people. it will be called by historians the great retaliation of North America.