It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Stephane trembaly on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 1:24 pm
I will repeat that, I will kill everyone on earth just to get back my right to carry a handgun on me without a license. I told you so.
alain deput on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 8:12 pm
I am less and less hungry and drink less and less water. I think I am slowly wane away from eating. This is what you would expect if you were about to leave earth for another dimension where there is no food. If I can I might come back and kill some of you personally for taking my handguns away from me. Nobody takes away from me my right to carry an handgun on me without a license.
alain deputs on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 9:57 pm
Who ever created this video, understand male sexuality better then anyone on earth. Yes earth populated with low IQ men with no testosterones and afraid of dressing women as fuck toy. Look at European men if you want to see an low IQ males with no drive and testosterones. These women are dress as sex toys. Europeans and Jewish progressive values has turned earth into a boring place. You know what I think of the Jews and Europeans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDJ56gvQNng
alan lapierre on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 10:21 pm
This is WEF vision of a better futur:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKEX132S-OM
This is my vision for a better futur: women dressed as fuck toy made only to please men sexually and nothing else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDJ56gvQNng
Death is better then living under the governance of Europe, Israel, the Jews, globalist or WEF.
Stepahnie laporete on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 11:04 pm
Globalists have created AI to control the world and so they could hide themselves behind it and never be identified. AI has turned against the globalists and WEF and is now a tool that can be used to destroy globalists and there one world government project. What a fucking irony.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDJ56gvQNng
Larine violetl on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 11:24 pm
Fucking funny as fuck. The globalists thought they would create an IA and the IA would lecture the population of earth about women rights, violence against women, female rape. Instead of that the AI is producing videos of women dressed as fuck toy and sex objects.
Ending Violence against women and girls: If not you, who?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_ZPHPutN-c
alain depouis on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 1:20 am
14:39 he takes the parking ticket and give it to her with a gesture that says you are my secretary do the work you are pay for. He runs the show she is the submissive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYFHCfivUNw
Jaenine karime on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 1:24 am
14:20 she is waiting by the side of the car. He walks in front of her and she following him behind. He runs the show she is just a sex toy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYFHCfivUNw
Isabelle Lafleur on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 2:02 am
The only reason why women are capable to be the dominant one in a relationship is because of police force, rape laws and divorce courts and the ability to use money to buy men manual labor.
All this will change once the civilisations collapses. Men like me that truly hate women, will beat them, use them as sex toy. Men like are going to retaliate against women. I have to write this down because earth population is too stupid to see it with their own eyes. Some of you pathetic losers are in for some big shocks as the system collapses.
alaln desrochese on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 3:58 am
A man that hold the hand of a woman is a submissive man and the women is dominant. See 7:06. Woman manipulate the man using the concept of love.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MLM_o9NCdc
alaine depres on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 4:07 am
Some of you will realize what some of us men known already. Women are useless parasites. Some of you will realize that sexual reproduction is a failure, and women are also total failure. Some of you might finally see the real beauty into masculinity and why masculine men don’t need women.
alan leduc on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 9:14 am
You see at 17:37. You can almost see her asshole. She is saying that she is can bought as a sex slave in exchange for money or a place to live. People have no idea what is about to happen because you are mentally retarded and cannot see the futur ahead of you. You are going to see more and more women advertising themself as sex slave by dressing in provocative ways.
I told you that I would kill all earth population because of canada firearms laws. Canada and US don’t deserve a king. Both nations desserve to die. Nobody takes my handgun away from me without me retaliatioin for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6D0Uy1aMVM
Alain lapresse on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 10:18 am
You see the dying trees at 34:13. I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I will kill everyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7zl3wzXhZg
alain leduc on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 11:25 am
I am born in 1967. In 1967 is when the government of Québec started implementing its feminist agenda. It is time now for me to leave earth as I learned what I had to learn here on earth. It was a simulation and I think that I passed the test. I have to wait until I am done kill all the earth population. OK I am fine with it
En 1967, le gouvernement fédéral met sur pied la Commission royale d’enquête sur la situation de la femme au Canada, la Commission Bird. La Fédération des femmes du Québec (FFQ), entre autres, participe aux travaux de cette commission et transmet au gouvernement du Québec l’une des principales recommandations du rapport, soit la constitution d’un « Office de la femme ». En 1971, la FFQ est invitée à participer à un comité chargé de préparer des recommandations pour le Conseil des ministres concernant la création d’un tel organisme.
https://csf.gouv.qc.ca/le-conseil/historique-et-presidentes/
alaine lapoete on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 11:33 am
I saw the whole cycle where a matriarcal gouvernent was installed in Québec using feminism. I was witness of everything and how women destroy everything they touch. I lived through the whole cycle of destruction.
Carl Peladeau on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 11:41 am
I saw almost the whole cycle. Once everyone on earth is dead, I will have been the witness of the whole cycle of destruction.
alain laported on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 12:40 pm
This simulation ends after I killed everyone on earth and walk over your dead cadavers.
J. Newell on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 7:37 pm
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alain lpaore on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 11:32 pm
I think I have said everything I had to say regarding earth and its future. This is mainly a training simulation for the chosen ones.
alain debug on Sun, 24th Nov 2024 11:52 pm
I am born in 1967. In 1967 is when the government of Québec started implementing its feminist agenda. It is time now for me to leave earth as I learned what I had to learn here on earth. It was a simulation and I think that I passed the test. I have to wait until I am done kill all the earth population. OK I am fine with it
En 1967, le gouvernement fédéral met sur pied la Commission royale d’enquête sur la situation de la femme au Canada, la Commission Bird. La Fédération des femmes du Québec (FFQ), entre autres, participe aux travaux de cette commission et transmet au gouvernement du Québec l’une des principales recommandations du rapport, soit la constitution d’un « Office de la femme ». En 1971, la FFQ est invitée à participer à un comité chargé de préparer des recommandations pour le Conseil des ministres concernant la création d’un tel organisme.
https://csf.gouv.qc.ca/le-conseil/historique-et-presidentes/
Earth is 57 year old (2024-1967). UN, WEF, feminism, were created to install one world government of matriarcal type. The only reason why women are capable to be the dominant one in a intimate relationship is because of police force, rape laws and divorce courts and the ability to use money to buy men’s manual labor. I am here to view the failure of sexual reproduction. My teaching will be completed once I walk over the cadavers of earth as described in revelation 19. Because of the collapse of electrical grid, cadavers will not be pick up and will be left where they are. This is confirmed in revelation 19 where cadavers will not be buried after the collapse of western civlistaon.
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
I think that is really the story of my life.
alain lparise on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 1:03 am
I don’t have to do anything. I just have to wait for the population of earth to die and I will collect your cadavers. I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
Ceicle rodale on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 1:44 am
This shit is simply amazing. This is 10 year ago. Look on the left at 0:23. Notice the row of dying trees. You see this happening through the whole planet earth. I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C-0Wm5iKag
Laping grenaille on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 1:51 am
Coast to coast storms could disrupt Thanksgiving travel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uqvryj2-_E
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. It is the last time that I will be forced to ask the permission to carry a handgun on me. I will kill all of you for leaving without the means to carry on me personal protection. It was the last time you did that to me.
alaine elaine on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 2:08 am
Fucking hilarious. For once I am proud of Montreal. The final solution is coming your way, meaning it is time to kill all the Jews of the world. See 1:31.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_F7Ba_EhZs
alain leblond on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 5:50 am
This shit is fucking amazing. Dying trees in almost every videos on YouTube.
35:14 dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7XAklg3Yk0
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
allna laporte on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 6:03 am
This is a big issue for me having personal protection being denied to me by Canada. You will see that I will go to the end of my madness and won’t be happy until I walk over cadavers.
alain laplante on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 8:40 am
I will show you more dying trees.
https://www.ontario.ca/files/2023-03/mnrf-srb-easternwhitecedar-tree-1200×1200-2023-03-24.jpg
All the Eastern Whites Cedars trees in my neighborhood are turning brown and dying. Look at how many dying trees you have on the picture above.
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
alain delon on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 8:48 am
You cannot win against me, I am too powerful. You are nothing compare to me.
alainj laporte on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 9:38 am
You want some more dying trees. Here they are at 0:27
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73WDxZAUIKw
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.You cannot win against me, I am too powerful. You are nothing compare to me.
jeanne letourneau on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 9:42 am
I told you to give me back my handguns, but you refuse to do so, so I have no choice other then killing all earth population.
alain leduc on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 9:53 am
This is how you will shut down the airline industry because of peak oil and a shortage of aircraft mechanics, You will never tell the truth about anything do you.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gps-jamming-dhl-cargo-plane-crashed-short-runway-near-lithuania-airport
America facing aircraft mechanic shortage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSxrlzCRG5M
alain lapoted on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 11:32 am
I just came back from the grocery store. The number of conifers trees that were dying was disturbing even to me. It is one thing to see them dying on YouTube videos, it is another thing so see them dying in your own neighborhood with your own eyes.
Well I want my handguns back I am willing to kill the whole population of earth to get them back.
https://wildlifeinformer.com/types-of-coniferous-trees/
Look at pictures on the main page. This is what I saw with my own eyes.
alain lapoted on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 12:38 pm
This shit is fucking amazing. This is a website about conifers trees, and inside the website there is picture of dying trees. This fucking shit is unbelievable.
https://wildlifeinformer.com/types-of-coniferous-trees/
They are showing you picture of dying trees.
https://wildlifeinformer.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/sugar-pines.webp
I told you that I would earth population just to get my handguns back.
Stepahne bureau on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 12:43 pm
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth just to get back my right to carry an handgun on me without a license. I said that many times that actual canada firearms laws are a big problems for me. Canada should have changed their firearms laws when I asked. Now it is tool late.
alain depuis on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 1:01 pm
Let’s me see if I understand the situation correctly. Everyone on earth will die just because Canadians politicians are not courageous enough to abolish the Canadians firearms laws. Everyone on earth will die just because of lack of courage from the Canadians politicians. Imagine what other dimensions will say about planet earth in history books.
Isabelle lamumire on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 1:11 pm
Let’s me see if I understand. I have shown to earth over and over that I am a powerful being, yet you decided to disobey me by not abolishing Canada firearms. You are basically declaring war toward me by not obeying me. This is current situation we are in, right.
joe plante on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 1:19 pm
Let’s me see if I understand the current situation. You will let me kill all the trees on planet earth without doing anything about it. You will not try to contact me and negotiate something with me. Just fucking WOW.
alaine depuis on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 2:19 pm
Almost every female singer on YouTube is now dressed in a BDSM black outfit. Nobody is talking about that either. I think there is a sexual fantasy realm within earth that is accessible to only certain type of beings. I think we see some of these female type in Monaco. You have to watch a lot of porn to understand why I am saying that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIGK91fY9P4
alain depuis on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 3:43 pm
I must not be the only one who dream and fantasies about kill politicians.
alain lafreniiere on Mon, 25th Nov 2024 3:48 pm
Some of us are going to come for all you one day or another and kill you and your family.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKhq3Y_v2NM
alain jdeputit on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 12:59 pm
I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Put that in the history books currently written about the end of earth. There is a sexual realm attached to earth, and it can be used to repopulate earth. Killing everyone does not mean the end of human race.
jane laroche on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 1:19 pm
A team of specialized executioners will be send to kill some of you and your family.
alaine depuis on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 1:23 pm
We can kill everyone on earth and still repopulate the earth with chosen ones with the help of the sexual realm. Watch us going. I will walk over your cadavers as written in revelation 19. What is inside the book of life, the names of the chosen ones.
alain depuis on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 2:34 pm
I will kill all the population of earth just because of Canada firearms laws. I dont need the populate of earth to repopulate earth as explained above.
India’s Cold Wave; Israel’s First Snows Of The Season; 31 Inches Hit Ukraine; Parts Of Russia Buried; Big White; Northern Hemisphere Burial; + Record Cold Headed For Greenland
alaije rmeiahn on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 2:43 pm
There is sexual realm attached to earth that can be used to repopulate earth. It is currently being updated with new sexual fantasies. All of this because of Canada firearms laws and the lack of courage from the Canadian politicians to abolish the laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDJ56gvQNng
jean trudeau on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 3:08 pm
There is a sexual realm out there, and yes I had had some personal experience with it. You fucking stupid cock sucker have no idea. You fucking cock sucker, I will kill all you just because of Canada firearms. There is sexual realm ready to go on when needed. Nobody take my handguns aways from me, specially not trudeau and legault.
johanne crhist on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 3:28 pm
I am going to kill all of you. I will find you where ever you are hiding.
alain laporte on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 4:16 pm
All earth legal contract and legal system are based on paper. Paper is made using trees. By killing all the trees of earth, I am basically shutting down the legal system of earth. You have no idea on vicious it is for me to kill all the trees of earth.
https://honeyoungbook.com/how-is-paper-made/
I am shutting the legal system of earth by killing all the trees of earth. I told you that I would kill everyone n earth because of Canada firearms laws. I am currently dismantling the legal and financial system of earth by killing all the trees. Why nobody is stopping me. Because me and the controller of earth want you dead.
denis lapierre on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 4:23 pm
Financial contracts are written on paper. I am killing your justice and financial system as we speak. This is how much I hate you for the creation of Canada firearms laws. I knew what I was doing when I demanded the dead of all the trees on earth. I am good, I am fucking good, don’t you find.
aland alapoe on Tue, 26th Nov 2024 4:35 pm
I want to see how you will keep the financial system alive without paper. I want to see how you will write mortgage loan without paper. I want see how you will work around that. SD card are to unreliable to be used as legal document medium. I told you I have already won, you just don’t have the IQ needed to see with your own eyes.