It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
janice lalonde on Sun, 27th Oct 2024 12:37 pm
She speak like a communist. She is a fake beings driven by a primitive mathematical model. She does not have a soul. This is why they are installing a new energetic field. To kill beings like her that does not have a soul.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/m9Pd1foKzm8
alin debuis on Sun, 27th Oct 2024 12:55 pm
Ma source is telling me that everyone on earth will be killed except the chosen ones. I agree to kill everyone on earth.
alain delon on Sun, 27th Oct 2024 1:00 pm
Ma source is telling me that everyone on earth will be killed except the chosen ones. I agree to kill everyone on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVNWGxaM2E0
alain djeput on Sun, 27th Oct 2024 1:43 pm
God´s Gonna Cut You Down 24 ( Johnny Cash ) Marcus Nimbler
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ha4KA0mMrw
See comment above.
Hannakim on Mon, 28th Oct 2024 4:48 am
moto x3m is an exhilarating motorcycle racing game that challenges players to navigate through various obstacle-filled courses.
alain deput on Mon, 28th Oct 2024 9:16 am
I will kill everyone on earth because of Canadian firearms laws. Watch me going and celebrated that dead of all Canadians.
retro bowl on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 12:51 am
Thực hiện đường chuyền hoàn hảo, đánh bại đối thủ và cảm nhận sự phấn khích khi đội của bạn ghi bàn thắng vào phút cuối. Đây là bóng đá đỉnh cao, với sự phấn khích khiến tim bạn đập nhanh cho đến giây cuối cùng.
communtiy energy systems on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 10:36 am
what is going on here…this used to be such an active site…now there are about 10 people here and the site seems be run my a aussie neonazi theluckycountry…who is disgusting,,,same 2 articles on the front line for months…what gives…
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Danie depuis on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 1:59 pm
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. See for yourself at 0:06 and forward
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYiBVU7VbmI
I will abolish Canadian firearms laws by abolishing earth populations.
Deniss Kareup on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 2:22 pm
Almost all the videos on YouTube have dying trees in them. Never again I will be forced to ask the permission to carry or buy handguns.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=615lNmMiOSQ
joe laporete on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 2:35 pm
Invisible beings wants the Knowledge that I have regarding reality building, including maths, cohesion concepts and much more. Earth population will be killed to apaise me. Handgun issues are becoming a stop and need to be put into rest. This will be achieved by killing earth population.
joe lafortune on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 2:58 pm
This clown world is turning really weird. See at 0:45. I guess GOD hates Jews also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JytmmqhD2GQ
Natlae karound on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 7:26 pm
At the ends of it, earth population will be killed because of Canada firearms laws. Never remove the personal projection of a man like Canada did with its Canada firearms laws. All the population of earth will be killed because of Canada.
Alain Dlong on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 8:18 pm
Kamala Harris did not want to become president of the US. She sabotaged herself because she did not want the job. You will never hear that in the media. Kamala did not want to have to deal with dying trees and Kamala did not want to fight against a real GOD. She bailed out by sabotaging herself. Now I think Trump is trying to sabotage himself also.
alend depuis on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 9:52 pm
Notice that nobody either in the big media or small blogs dare to say that Kamala Harris sabotage herself so she would not be elected. I guess democracy must be protected at all cost. I guess the fake political power structure of earth must be protected at all cost otherwise they risk losing control and authority over earth population.
Karine laporte on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 10:16 pm
Notice that no think tanks dare to say the Kamala Harris sabotaged herself. Everyone like to say that she received bad advices or similar reasons. Notice how hard they are working at protecting this fake power political structure and democracy.
alal karinl on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 10:21 pm
Notice that democracy was created in Europe. I will keep saying that, Europe is trying to install an one work government.
Jeanne Tremblay on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 10:36 pm
I want to repeat that. I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. This will never change. Nobody will ever take away from me again handguns as personal protection. It was the last time it has been done to me.
Joclylne Persone on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 10:38 pm
These comments are directed to the invisible world as written records of what happen on earth and why I recommended the execution of everyone on earth.
Jeanne lapote on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 11:11 pm
A TV screen is a 2D device. It is missing the depth of 3 dimension. How to fake depth on a TV screen that is 2 dimensions and missing the Z component. You play with color. This is why they are increasing the tv screen resolution to improve the 3D effect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSpZqGvmflU
look around the mouth how they play with colors to fake a missing dimension.
Catherine Austin on Thu, 21st Nov 2024 11:43 pm
If you are a being of light and don’t have a flesh body how do you imitate one. You modify the color spectrum to create a false 2D image of a flesh body. See video below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSpZqGvmflU
The only way to kill them, will be the change the earth energetic framework so they cannot attach themself to it. Flesh beings will need a new body before the shift to a new energy fiels can be fully activated. Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die.
rejean turbine on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 12:04 am
If you look at the sky, it is obvious that it is a cheap 2D image with no depth in it.
Jean lapierere on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 12:27 am
Earth does not have a substitute for plastic or oil if you will. It is guaranteed that everyone on earth will die.
https://www.amazon.com/Engine-Thermostat-Housing-with-Sensor-Assembly-Replacement-for-Ford-Explorer-Ranger-Mazda-B4000-Mercury-Mountaineer/dp/B08VD8RLN9?tag=whywelikethis-20
Earth is running out of natural ressources and energy and have to find substitue to make cars parts. It is mostly plastic as a substitue for steel and aluminum. You are already dead, you just don’t have the IQ need to see it with your own eyes. I will get back my right to carry handguns on me after I kill everyone on earth. This is how I see it.
alain laporte on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 4:47 am
Only dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=is79TPIZGAs
Trees were already dying because of the backward entropic degradation clock. Videos like above are just speeding up the death of an already dying green vegetation by increasing the entropic degradation speed variable constante of the green vegetation.
Jean lacurieux on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 4:57 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Do you still doubt my intentions of killing all of earth population for a question of handguns ownership.
Marc labregel on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 8:39 am
They removed all their palms trees and replace them with some kind of poles with flags. See 3:33.
I told you that I would kill all the trees on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I told told you so many times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGA40sI3k6w
alain defrost on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 2:37 pm
You are really lucky fat fuck that I am not interested in power, because you will be on top of my execution list with all the Jews living in North America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VCD7uPB-uc
Seraphin laprime on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 2:47 pm
I would also kill all the politicians past and present that have dual citizenship with Israel. I would kill all of you myself personally.
Don’t worry, you will all die on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Watch me kill all the green vegetation on earth just because of Canada firearms laws.
Joe laporte on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 3:16 pm
Some people in the media never talk about the possibility that the bureaucrats in the US would install a King to kill politicians and Jews on their behalf. Fuck at how the main streets medias are useless with their BS political analysis. Earth population is so stupid, it is unbelievable how earth supply chain is still holding up.
Strepeh Burean on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 3:19 pm
Some of you never consider the possibility that it will be bureaucrats in the US that will go after the Jews and politicians and install a King. You are so fucking stupid.
Alkain Depuis on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 3:46 pm
Good Lord, protect us from the Jews
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHDFYQKlT3A
Cyril leclerc on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 3:49 pm
Who is to say that politicians with dual citizenship with Israel will not become the target of the deep state or bureaucracy.
alan larefuge on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 4:17 pm
Thailand does not fuck around. Always on the front row of the battlefield as a fierce warrior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUwR9FTjXpM
jan laturbinel on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 4:45 pm
I will make a prediction here. The US deep state will go after the Jews and politicians supporting them and will kill them as retaliation for the destruction of the US. The US deep state will also retaliate against UK and Europe for pushing progressive value into the US.
alain tubinet on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 5:10 pm
Look at her ugly Jewish face, it this her real face at 1:38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNHW_gs7ki8
JeanLaporte on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 5:22 pm
What will happen to me? I will either leave earth and get eternal life and become a creator of realities. Or I will stay on earth and inherit earth after I am done killing earth population because of Canada firearms laws.
Alain Depuis on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 5:28 pm
I have to take 4 shower a day to remove the excess fat on my skin created by my body update. 4 fucking showers a day, plus sometime I am using a brush to scratch my skin during showering to stop the temporary itching of my skin. Either way, I will destroy the world because of Canada firearms laws. This comment should go into an historical record of what happen on earth,
John Crown on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 5:35 pm
Even if all earth population will be killed, I am still expecting the deep state to retaliate against he Jews living in North America. I am also expecting retaliation against Europe for pushing processive values on them.
Alain depuis on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 10:28 pm
I will tell you things than you will never heard in the media. The democrats have sabotaged their own political party from the inside. The republican are now sabotaging their own party from the inside. See Trump latest nominations. The deep state will install a King and the deep state will move into retaliation mode against the Jews, politicians supporting Israel, Europe, UK, Israel, progressive value, university teaching progressives values.
Alaid delonne on Fri, 22nd Nov 2024 11:38 pm
Notice how think tanks like the council of foreign relation are still pushing the narrative that the US political system is healthy and well functioning. They are also pushing this narrative that US and Israel relationship is unbreakable, well it is exactly the opposite, there are breakable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVEPyAoxCvE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPvrFSXQt2I
https://www.youtube.com/@cfr/videos
Notice at how any of these think tanks is not talking about the fact the US deep state is sabotaging US political system from the inside and the deep state will move into retaliation mode.
alan deupu on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 12:00 am
Notice that the subject that there might be an internal rebellion inside the deep state and bureaucrat of US against democracy is not mentioned anywhere on the web or main street media. Notice how this topic is avoided same with the democrat sabotaging their own party from the inside. Notice the silence, as if they were in a state of paralysis as event are moving to fast for them to conterinteract.
alain debuiog on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 2:54 am
Women have the body language and movement of sexual dominatrix that are in charge and the men look and behave like pathetic beta male seeking female validation. I told you that they have been feminizing men for a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwEdSyBxlrk
alken laporte on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 3:18 am
Such a level of feminization within a dual sexual reality (male and female) is not healthy and will lead to collapse of the reality and the dead of everyone living withing this reality. Go look at the Canadian firearms form and you will see who run the western world: women.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tk7rNftYW_g
aline leblon on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 3:25 am
Such a level of feminization will the collapse the Bottom of the civilisation where you will not be able to find enough masculine men to fix cars, truck, plumbing, welding therefore collapsing your civilisation in a permanente manner. You are already dead, you just don’t have the IQ needed to see it with your own eyes. I have already won against you .
jonny begood on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 3:46 am
You live in a dual reality:
male-female
up-down
cold-hot
left-right
white-black
zero-one for computer logical
You are incapable of managing a dual reality, what make you think you can manage a more complex reality. Everyone on earth will be killed except the chosen ones. You are too stupid to be kept alive.
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alaine debuig on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 9:18 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws. Canada is done so is the rest of world. This is an accomplishment that I will proudly wear on my chest: I kill everyone on earth to protect my right to carry an handgun on me.
Jean lapointe on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 11:28 am
Will I leave earth today? Sure feel like it. I am back in bed after I did a bit of sowing on my new tactical pants model. I hope you all fucking die because of Canada firearms laws. I might come back and kill some of you personally if I can. I hope you all die for taking away from me my personal protection in the form of a handgun.
alain leducl on Sat, 23rd Nov 2024 1:13 pm
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. 0:00 to 0:28. I will use any means I can to kill earth population: snow, floods, killing trees and green vegetation. It was the last time I was denied personal protection using an handgun by any form of authority.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIxyXzw0v1M