It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Isabelle on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 3:45 am
There is a reason why we use women to destroy the West. See Canada firearms license form section E and F. There is a reason as to why we used women as a weapon of war to destroy the West in a permanent manner. See video link above. If you don’t understand by now how we sabotage the West from the inside using women, you are a fucking loser.
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:15 am
I told you that we have been using women, to destroy the West. It should be obvious to anyone now that has any kind of IQ.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bxNCdEybNdY
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:57 am
test youi kn
tes on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:57 am
I won, you lost.
jdie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 11:02 am
Don’t forget to worship women. Don’t forget to make more firearms laws, Dont forget to modify the divorce tribunal to make sure that women is totally control men
Dont forget to modify child payment to make sure that women control men totally
We fuck the West so good using women. I love telling the world how much I hate Québec and Canada
https://www.revenuquebec.ca/fr/pensions-alimentaires/#:~:text=Voyez%20les%20particularit%C3%A9s%20li%C3%A9es%20%C3%A0%20la
toostupidtolive on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 11:13 am
Dont forget to worship women narcissism and beauty. The cameraman filming women represent the narcissism of women and her inflate sense of ego. Women the perfect weapon of destruction. You took away my handgun just to please women. You took away my right to carry an hand gun on me just to please women. Fuck you are stupid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3NvwmrJBK4
jaen on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 11:21 am
When you took away my right to carry and hand gun on me just to please women, you feed her already inflated narcissism and ego. You made her even more destructive then before.
alindelon on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 11:34 am
It is amazing how stupid you really are. You are not just stupid, you are heavily mentally retarded. Feeding women ego by making firearms laws made to protect her, has made more powerful and destructives. Everything you touch and do, you destroy
alin on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 11:53 am
GOD does not communicate using verbal or written language. He understand that language were created to manipulate first, not as a tool of communication. GOD speak using images. I tool me a while to understand that.
alide on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 11:59 am
There is no difference between a women, a feminized men (see European men) and a gay. They all have inflated ego and can be used as a weapon to sabotage civilization from the inside.
cpac on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:07 pm
When you see a man with a nice hair style, he is an narcissist with inflated ego. This is what GOD is saying. He communicating using images not verbal language. It take a while to get use to this form of communication and it required and really high IQ. GOD does not like mentally retarded people and narcissist. This is why we will kill everyone earth. Everyone on earth has a nice hair style.
alaie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:09 pm
Earth is populated with just fucking loser heavily mentally retarded.
aland on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:22 pm
What is Stephen Colbert with his perfect hair style and slim feminized body. A women with a inflated narcissism and ego.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7wnkQJioBw
aldine on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:29 pm
The European men are probably the most feminized men on earth, more than the Asiatic if it is possible. Nice hair cut, nice business suit, using proper verbal and written langue communication skills in the goal of manipulate earth population and install a one world gouvernent. Who believe the most in these progressives values: feminism, racism, antisemitism, LGBT: European leadership. The throne of the devil is located in Switzerland.
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:34 pm
It is almost as if the European create Israel and the Jews nationality to take control of the US and use the Jews to hide behind in case their agenda to impose a one world government would fail. The Jews would be blamed instead of the Europeans.
No, I still hate the Jews and want all of them dead. But truth is the truth even if I hate the Jews
jonny on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:44 pm
All do you like all these revelations before we kill all the populations of earth to install a realm for talented masculine men.
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:48 pm
Who created Israel, UK, where is UK located in Europe. SO I guess the Europeans are hiding behind the Jews and Israel to control the world and the US and install a one world government control directly from Europe and Switzerland.
joe on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:56 pm
I told you that I would destroy Europe and Israel if I could. I just destroy Europe international reputation by making comments on a computer screen. How good am I? you tell me.
allo on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 1:07 pm
Look WEF is uploading more and more voice only videos on their YouTube channel. Are the hiding to protect their live so they don’t dare to show their real face.
https://www.youtube.com/@wef/videos
Same as the trilateral commission
https://www.youtube.com/@TheTrilateralCommission
Are they hiding to protect their own life. After creating all this mess on planet earth we will let them run away without any real punitive or retaliation actions for our part.
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 1:17 pm
Some people some where in the world want blood for revenge, I cannot blame them.
Sheldon Whitehouse Probes How ‘Treason’ Fits Into Supreme Court’s Presidential Immunity Decision
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a55fQ4dEkHw
I am not sure I care and will not be part of it. But I understand their anger.
Projectfirt on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 1:24 pm
I have a project I wanted to do since I finished my engineering studies. This will demand the death of everyone on earth. Only a few talented masculine men might be chosen. No women, no kids, no gun laws, no government. I only invest myself in something that I can attache myself to it emotionally. I don’t care enough about earth and its population to save them.
akde depuy on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 1:28 pm
SO I need to be unburden by what has been. I need to kill the population of earth. You Know as kamala would say.
Trudeau on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 1:43 pm
You cannot fight us and win. We won, and earth lost,
adie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 2:04 pm
Notice the Zelensky does not wear a suit like the European feminized men do. Maybe because he works with the Russian at the destruction of Europe.
jaenlape on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 2:13 pm
If you look at my comments, you can see that I have been working at killing Europe reputation on the international scene.
jonelae on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 3:34 pm
Women seem to love their butt cracks. I am pretty sure they prefer anal sex over vaginal sex. They seem to think that it is something beautiful to watch. The place where the shit goes out, the butt crack, is something beautiful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IcLfmLdegI
jdoe on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 3:39 pm
Men seems to have a certain awareness that a butt crack is something disgusting. Women don’t see to understand that. See video above.
jodne on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:05 pm
Men seems to have a certain awareness that a butt crack is something disgusting. Women don’t see to understand that. It is almost as if women know they are useless and only good for sex, and even that, they are not that good as sex. What are they good for..
good for what on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:08 pm
What are women good for, other then consuming natural resources and bothering men.
karin on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:10 pm
If you look at video on youtube and read the messages GOD are sending you, you will see that he considers women as useless and a failure.
jone on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:16 pm
I always thought is was obvious to any men over 20 years old that women are useless and failed creation. This is why we are using women to sabotage the West from the inside. We understand exactly what they are unlike earth population.
juste think on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:29 pm
If you are some invisibles beings trying to acquired knowledge about earth and a man comes to you and tell you that he can explain to you
some of the sciences of earth: mathematic, engineering, chemistry, electricity but he will need help. Would you kill all the population of earth to please this man. I would so, so they would also.
force on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:39 pm
Do you know what Kamala means when she is saying. I can imagine what can be and be unburden by what has been.
Women are imagining in their heads a world where men are slaves of women. She can imagine a world where men work for the benefit of women only. This is what women want from men, total submission.
Demand submsion on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 4:42 pm
What is section E and F of the canada firearms license form. women demanding total submission from men for their personal benefit.
Should not say that on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 9:46 pm
I was masturbating as a therapy against pain. When you are 50 year old but ejaculate like a 20 year old. I could feel the ball of sperm going through my piss pipe with extreme speed and force. It felt like I was shooting a gun bullet through mu piss pipe. I felt this whole ball traveling through the piss pipe. I did not know that the body update included a refresh of the sexual system.
too feminized on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 10:13 pm
When every Whites men on earth look like the feminized White European man, it it normal to select only masculine man high IQ as futur procreator. The Whites European man is unfit for procreation , he is too feminized. Look at Trudeau, the perfect feminized White man
new procreation cycle on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 10:28 pm
Listen to this fucking loser talking.
www__youtube__com/watch?v=M23HTeQQclU
Well it looks like they are going to kill all the earth population and create a new population through sexual procreation using a some selected masculine high IQ men and some newly designed female.
Allain laporte on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:08 am
In the sexual realm, black represent control and domination. Most female dominatrix in porn videos are dress in black clothing. Whites will then represent submission.
I am going to have problem driving at night because of the holographic projections I see with my upgraded vision. I see an upper and lower holographic projection and sometime even more. I will need to rewire my brain to interpret what I see properly
joel lafarge on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:10 am
Black and Whites are also neutral colors that you put to separate the dominant colors: green, yellow, red, blue.
denis laporte on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:17 am
Firearms are black because they represent domination same as a sexual dominatrix dress in black,
bak power on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:26 am
2:00 she is dress with a black dominatrix clothing because she is represent the dominant person in the movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoyMT-7wEqs
Black equal domination and power over people.
Jean Trudel on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:41 am
This is why a lot of politicians are dressed with a dark blue suit. It represent domination and power and women will react o that and submit. Women then control men using the rape laws, divorce courts, family courts. A married man is submissive slave that must work to keep women happy and keep this civilization working.
Married men are used as slave to build and maintain this civilisation and are controlled by women. See section E and F of Canada firearms license form as proof of what I am saying.
Karine lafouche on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:43 am
Politicians dressed in dark blue suits.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/iranandsaudis.jpg?itok=-TgMqKVq
allo alain on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:47 am
0:01 looking at her clothing. This is sexual female dominatrix clothing. She represent power, authority and domination. The other women is dressed in red because she is not the dominant one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OqURqnxrMA
Black white on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:56 am
He is dressed in black because he represents power and domination. He is dressed in full black clothing unlike the police officer that have color patches on their uniform. He is more powerful because he is dress all in black,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FX4t1lLNl-o
aldine on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 3:35 am
Courts judge are dressed in black also because they represent power and authority, same as the police forces and the sexual dominatrix
Pope is dressed in White because he represents peace, inclusion, tolerance, diversity, negotiation discussion. You have an up and down, as mentioned in the bible, you have black and White, one is up the other one is down.
lain laop on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 3:36 am
I told you that we will use women to destroy the West.
karin laporte on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 3:38 am
Not sure what else is there to say
allan debvin on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 3:42 am
Most police cars are now black and white, before they were blue and white. They are losing control of earth, this is why they changed the color of police cars.
old police car:
https://uk.pinterest.com/pin/los-angeles-1989-dodge-diplomat-bluewhite-nypd-police-car–483011128777345512/
New police car:
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/2015-ford-police-interceptor-heralded-as-the-quickest-police-car-in-california-89426.html
aldie joe on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 3:53 am
Some old police car used to be White, White meaning peace.
Now the are black meaning power and authority. Clear sign that are losing control of earth.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Champaign_Police_car.jpg