It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Alain Leduc on Wed, 9th Oct 2024 4:20 pm
I will have the cadavers of all the Canadians laid in front of my feet because of Canada firearms laws. Earth is a light holographic projection. Who can control the light source inside earth can do what he wants. I don’t need to travel to Brazil because I can create what I want using the light holographic projectors of earth. I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws then after I will enjoy earth population cadavers (see revelation 19) then I will build my long term project..
Alan Trudellle on Wed, 9th Oct 2024 4:58 pm
The invaders are light beings capable of playing with the light spectrum and project a false image of a flesh body. This is why when the fake beings speak, they sometime have the inside of their mouth black. It is a hole that has no light in it, so it appears as black.
The invasion will continue until all the undesirable light beings are transferred into earth. After we gather all of them , the will be killed in a permanent manner.
alind debut on Wed, 9th Oct 2024 5:15 pm
All the undesirable beings are going to be transferred here on earth. Once we gather all of them, we will killing everyone living on earth except me. I will then inherit earth realm for me alone and I will move on with my personal projects in total and eternal solitude.
aldie alaop on Wed, 9th Oct 2024 7:16 pm
7:33 dying trees. Who control the light source of earth, control the earth that is a big holographic projections. I will make you regret the creation of Canada firearms laws. I will you regret this insult toward me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B3c28K-cY0
Please be ease we're all lover's of supremacist Muzzies here on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:05 am
Ew brother ew what that brother
alind debt on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:11 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I am doing it right now right in front of your fucking face.
https://www.wpbf.com/article/officials-multiple-fatalities-in-st-lucie-county-from-tornadoes/62561027
Alain laporte on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:19 am
All the cadavers of earth inhabitants will be laid down in front of my feet as mentioned in revelation 19 for my personal pleasure and enjoyment. All of this because of the Canadians firearms laws.
As per revelation 19:
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
I Told you so on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:25 am
Hurricane Milton sucks water out of Tampa Bay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P_g6A4GYMo
All the cadavers of earth inhabitants will be laid down in front of my feet as mentioned in revelation 19 for my personal pleasure and enjoyment. All of this because of the Canadians firearms laws.
As per revelation 19:
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
aldie on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 1:46 am
I don’t care. I am losing interene about writting comments on here. It is doo mcuh work.
I told you to not neglect my needs. Go fuck yoiursel.f
jean laporte on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 11:18 am
It is not Trump they are afraid of. They are afraid of me. I have not hidden what I would do I was forced become a King. I told on this web site that I would kill all the Jews living in North America and recall all the ambassadors working in UK, Europe, Japan and Korean and expulse all the UK, Europe, Japan and Korean ambassadors working in North America.
https://x.com/ModernityNews/status/1844328351957385631?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1844328351957385631%7Ctwgr%5Ee0a66bcaee4af577a094c893f28e420ca099aa20%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fdesperate-dem-strategist-claims-trump-vowed-exterminate-people-eugenics
this web site sucks on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 11:18 am
It is not Trump they are afraid of. They are afraid of me. I have not hidden what I would do I was forced become a King. I told on this web site that I would kill all the Jews living in North America and recall all the ambassadors working in UK, Europe, Japan and Korean and expulse all the UK, Europe, Japan and Korean ambassadors working in North America.
aldine dept on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 11:44 am
The understand what kind of men I am and why I am dangerous.
They know that I am single, no kids, and suicidal. They know I don’t care about my onw survival and life.
They know I have a high IQ and because I am suicidal, I would be able to kill all Jews in North America.
They fully understand how dangerous I am for them and the rest of wrold
alain joubert on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 11:52 am
They fully understand that I am capable of killing all the politicians in Canada just because of Canada firearms laws.
They cannot named me, because it could accelerate my accession as a the King of North America.
allan dune on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:11 pm
Fed lowered the rate yesterdae. I just saw that.
Federal interest rates drop, but mortgage rates on the rise
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VgwAhbIIiU
This is us crashing the US economy to the ground and and the destroying US dollars as refence benchmark.
This is us taking the first toward isolationism of North America from the rest of world.
It is us voluntary destroying the US empire in other world.
alan depuit on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:24 pm
Mentioning Eugenic is a response to a comment I made regarding me receiving an refreshing of my sexual system.
It is in relation to a comment I made regarding killing everyone on earth and starting a new population.
Using me as a male procreator.
they see that as a possibly that everyone on earth will be killed.
A new male procreator will be chosen with newly made female to repopulate the earth.
ALaing lafarge on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:45 pm
Trump said way worst thing then bad genes. It is not about bad genes. It is about comments I made about a boosting of my
sexual system. They are afraid we will kill everyone on earth and restart a new population with a new male procreator,
that would be me, and better and improved female over the current female version that we have now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucFv9D3wH1Y
Kleck alan on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 12:46 pm
Trump said way worst thing then bad genes. It is not about bad genes.
It is about comments I made about a boosting of my
sexual system. They are afraid we will kill everyone on earth and
restart a new population with a new male procreator,
that would be me, and better and improved female over the
current female version that we have now that is shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucFv9D3wH1Y
wastr of time on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 1:41 pm
JUST IN: AG Merrick Garland, DOJ Officials Hold A Briefing To Announce Legal Actions Against TD Bank
I will not comment on this because we will kill all earth population anyway. Why wait my time.
Please be ease we're all lover's of supremacist Muzzies here on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 3:19 pm
I Appoint all elite supertard presidents supertard
Ew brother ew what that brother on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 8:45 pm
It’s supremacist Muzzie dilly Hussain going up a Muzzie back passage
Please ease we love muzz
aline leduc on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 9:40 pm
Listen at the sound from 0:00 to 0:59
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp04H00gcCk
I talk often about the light spectrum, but
there is also the sound spectrum that is more
difficult to explain with words. Earth sounds
seems something fake with a high frequency spike.
stephan tremblay on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 9:48 pm
Look at the trees at 0:06, this is us telling
earth that we will kill all earth population except the chosen ones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Dg67pd4dQw
joe on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 10:43 pm
When they accuse some else of something bad, they are,
in fact talking about themself. A lot of people
have noticed that when they accuse other of something they are in facto talking about themself.
Nobody was a bigger liar and manipulator then Obama.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXSTaORcmYQ
allan poe on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 10:59 pm
This is the typical communist speech you would expect from a communist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXSTaORcmYQ
real strength is about working hard and carrying an heavy load without complainaing.
I will give you the communist translation:
intelligent, stronger and capable men belong
to the poor as slaves and tools to ensure the
survival of the stupid. If intelligent people
refuse
to be the slaves for the poor and stupid,
they shall be killed.
This is what he is saying.
Typical communist speech from him. I did not expect anything else.
alain delon on Thu, 10th Oct 2024 11:14 pm
It looks like some one has rewritten the speech matrix to
force to describe themself when they
are making speech. See link above.
Some one has access to whole matrix from the outside of earth,
and it fucking with these fake beings.
Totally realistic on Fri, 11th Oct 2024 12:32 am
5 feet tall 120 lbs skinny Chinese women driving semi trailer truck.
Totally realistic,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxAu53H0j74
Nevrer disappoint on Fri, 11th Oct 2024 2:21 am
Sniffing drying underwear. Clean underwear don’t smell this is why it is funny.
Pervers smell dirty female underwear because they want the authentic vaginal smell.
Thailand never disappoint.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyyXIqfEF4o
alaibedebug on Fri, 11th Oct 2024 2:42 am
There is something special and unique about Thailand. There is a special vibe floating in the air of this nation.
Would make a prefect civilizational knowledge lifeboat.
perfectplase on Fri, 11th Oct 2024 2:53 am
Thailand would make a prefect civilizational knowledge lifeboat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iagk92NcWxQ
JustHatred on Fri, 11th Oct 2024 3:01 am
This should just tell you how much I hate the West, Québec and Canada.
When was the last time I said something nice about Québec, Canada or the West in general.
I care more about what is happening in Thailand than Canada.
That should tell you something about my hatred toward Canada.
No option on Fri, 11th Oct 2024 3:06 am
This is what I mean. The Jews ruin everything that is nice. See Blinken in Thailand.
this is why we are forced to destroy earth and restart form scratch.
I really have no other option than kill everyone on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04YUGOAaKe8
alain leduc on Sat, 12th Oct 2024 6:23 pm
Retaliation against the people working toward the enslavement of real flesh humans is about to start.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4l8Vf9IpuCI
I told you so on Sun, 13th Oct 2024 10:20 pm
6:18 the top of the tree is dead. 1:04 the tree behind
her is also dying.
I told you that I would kill everyone living
on earth, because of Canada firearms laws.
This is the last time I was forced to ask the
permission to any authority to carry hand guns on me.
I will kill everyone on earth so I can be a free man that
can carry a handgun on him without the need to ask
permission from anyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k46EXoNwLlQ
Funny on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 4:33 am
I cannot stop laughing. He is probably naked playing with his welding torch.
When I work in my basement, I at least put a pair of underwear on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNLyjqkuEFU
Joe Laplante on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 4:57 am
The guy below won’t be the first one to die when the system collapse
and you cannot find a car mechanics to fix your car. You fucking worthless women and leftist will die first,
because we are not coming to your rescue.
I will kill everyone on earth so I can be a free man that
can carry a handgun on him without the need to ask
permission from anyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNLyjqkuEFU
jaea lapot on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 5:14 am
Go look at his channel. Women and leftist will die first and no ones
is coming to help. This guy would be included in a civilizational knowledge lifeboat.
You are on your own. Prepare accordingly.
https://www.youtube.com/@denniswilliams8747/videos
jopne on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 5:54 am
Nobody takes away my firearms from me and live.
sams on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 12:07 pm
absolutely.decent read.thanks
Comprar carta de condução
Carta de Conducao
thanks for the content
sams on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 12:08 pm
absolutely.decent read.thanks
Comprar carta de condução
Carta de Conducao
thanks for the content
joe on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 12:37 pm
Women and leftists are losers and they will die first.
jone laporte on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 12:44 pm
Women are useless eaters and need to be killed.
jope on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 12:52 pm
Earth is an execution chamber. The second law of thermodynamic state
that a process is only reversible if you have the needed heat.
Think of melting an old car to recover steel.
Without oil or heat everyone will die on earth. We build earth
as an execution chamber because we hate you.
dS=dQ/dTY is another constraint we put on earth design.
I will kill everyone on earth so I can be a free man that
can carry a handgun on him without the need to ask
permission from anyone. GOD I hate you for taking aways my
handguns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_law_of_thermodynamics
Jeal lapierre on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 12:53 pm
Earth is an execution chamber. The second law of thermodynamic state
that a process is only reversible if you have the needed heat.
Think of melting an old car to recover steel.
Without oil or heat everyone will die on earth. We build earth
as an execution chamber because we hate you.
dS=dQ/dTY is another constraint we put on earth design.
I will kill everyone on earth so I can be a free man that
can carry a handgun on him without the need to ask
permission from anyone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_law_of_thermodynamics
Jeal lapierre on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 12:59 pm
We have already won, we keep winning everyday
and you keep losing everyday.
joe alpote on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 1:03 pm
Recycling paper, plastic, steel or anything
else is only possible if you have a lot of
heat or oil available.
This is what the second of law of thermodynamic is saying.
dS=dQ/dT is another constraint we put on earth design.
I will kill everyone on earth so I can be a free man that
can carry a handgun on him without the need to ask
permission from anyone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_law_of_thermodynamics
Joe Wesput on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 1:08 pm
I will live everyone else will die. I have
something to offer them in the form of
knowledge about how earth is built. You have nothing to offer other than your narcissism
and mental retardation.
alaine laplume on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 1:35 pm
1:53 the face of someone that is crying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhB4d2Lu7iQ
They know it and we know it also.
We have won, they lost.
jode lapete on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 2:39 pm
I told you that lowering interest rate will
start permanent hyperinflation and the death of
financial system.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stagflation-odds-jump-latest-ny-fed-survey-inflation-expectations-rise-deliqnuency-fears
I dare Canada and the US to lower the
interest rate even more.
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth
because of Canada firearms laws.
joe lapelate on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 3:58 pm
We don’t care about the population of earth.
We need people to help us understand how earth is designed mathematically speaking.
You are all expendable.
alain depuit on Tue, 15th Oct 2024 7:02 pm
It is just a simulation like the movie the matrix.
Take and hexagonal key and measure the size of it with a caliper,
you will get that same value as written on the key.
Such a level of perfection is not attainable in real life. It means it is just a simulation.
It is must likely a sort of simulation where heat is used to transport information.
ONly the chosen ones will lives because they
have a real flesh body.