It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
weapon of war on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 4:37 am
Look at the woman in bathing suit. Women are weapons of war when you understand their inner psychology. I want your cadavers to walk over them as per revelation 19. Look at dead branches on the trees also.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNNwdVqQays
jone lapote on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 4:51 am
the rate cut narrative is turning around. You also know that the only way to keep earth realm alive a little bit longer is to raise interest rate to slow natural resources depletion. There is no other way if you want to keep earth realm alive a bit longer.
Dollar May Slam Shut Window for Rate Cuts | Markets in 3 Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7jhDOLfJKQ
alain depuit on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 5:18 am
I hate my life. You don’t have anything better to do with your time. Using me and earth as way to increase your knowledge and intelligence. I find that insulting that you are that stupid.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oQJO1pc5eKI
aldie lpatain on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 5:22 am
It is too tight fucking loser. You did not left room for thermal dilation.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oQJO1pc5eKI
alai dube on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 5:55 am
only people with an high IQ will understand the hidden message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItWsOWdPx68
As I said, we have been using women to destroy western civilisation from the inside because we understand what they really are, unlike the stupid population of earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlEffv2PHOM
alainben alpae on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 6:17 am
We know that everyone on earth will be dead soon because of natural ressources depletion. We are creating a knowledge and historical database of what happen on earth. This is why you see video like this. This will go into some kind of knowledge database. Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else on earth will die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItWsOWdPx68
alnd lapote on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 6:18 am
Made a mistake this is the right video link. We know that everyone on earth will be dead soon because of natural ressources depletion. We are creating a knowledge and historical database of what happen on earth. This is why you see video like this. This will go into some kind of knowledge database. Only the chosen ones will live, everyone else on earth will die.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oQJO1pc5eKI
alaine delongd on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 7:22 am
0:32 look at his face. this is the face of someone dying. The reality is being shutdown. It goes a little faster that I was expecting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CoM4Xv2D3Y
dying fast on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 7:26 am
another one that look like a dying cadavers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udytyEDoYbM
aline laporte on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 8:25 am
You can see certain news website on Youtube dying. The number of videos download per day is decreasing.
Global news canada is one of them:
https://www.youtube.com/@globalnews/videos
CTV news canada is one of them:
https://www.youtube.com/@CTVNews/videos
CNN is one of them also:
https://www.youtube.com/@CNN/videos
trilateral commission channel is dead:
https://www.youtube.com/@TheTrilateralCommission/videos
council of foreign relation is publishing less and less video
https://www.youtube.com/@cfr/videos
joel apope on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 8:39 am
Look at Colbert weird body movement and his facial expressions full of fear. Freeze the video you will see what I mean. Freeze at 0:10 for a expression of fear in his face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF8F5Vpx7S8
alain deubi on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 8:46 am
WEF forum website is almost dead with only voice videos.
https://www.youtube.com/@wef/videos
alain deput on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 8:49 am
I was not expecting things to go that fast. I was expecting a slower pace.
aline on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 8:59 am
trilateral commission website is dead with no future event planed. Last events November 20 year 2022. This site is completely dead. The fake globalist elites is on the run, I guess.
https://www.trilateral.org/events/
alain deluz on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 9:16 am
I made a chest knife harness in anticipation that they would send some people to talk with me. It never happened. Apparently I am untouchable.
aldin delon on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 9:31 am
Les arbres dans la cour arrière de mon voisin de droite sont en train de mourir. On put voir du jaune. C’est vraiment fuckée.
aldin delon on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 9:40 am
I made a chest knife harness in anticipation that they would send some people to talk with me. It never happened. Apparently I am untouchable. I was really expecting them to send somebody to talk with me. I was expecting them to come to me and identify themself. Nothing.
jadore ma vie on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 11:31 am
Je suis aller a l’épicerie et j’ai pu vérifier les arbres de mon voisin de droite. Effectivement, ils sont tous en train de mourir. J’ai tellement une belle vie.
allo pute on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 11:38 am
Le problème avec la pute habillée en noir, c’est que c’est une vierge avec un trou de cul trop serré. Elle a besoin de se faire violer par au moins 2 gars. Après cela, elle ne sera plus la même pute. J’ai aussi reçue une mise a jour de pour écrire le Français avec plus de faciliter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHrNhMsmKwA
karin mohamad on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 11:53 am
Une fois que tu as violer une conne comme la chienne habillée en noir, elle comprenne que l’équalité des sexes c’est juste de la merde de communist frustrée. Elles comprennent la différence entre féminité et masculinité. Les putes sur terre sont pas controllable parce vous ne les dévierger pas par le viol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHrNhMsmKwA
Vous êtes juste des connards et des minable sans cervelles. On va tous vous tuer, vous êtes trop stupides pour rester en vie.
alal dennis on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 1:09 pm
Him and his fucking fat dog. Fucking fat fuck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5ckA5_cwcc
allo jean on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 1:40 pm
La panique doit être entrain de pogner a quelque part. Le 10 year US treasury yield est a 4.099. Les banques vont être obligées d’augmenter les taux de CPG et les taux hypothécaire si ca continue comme ca. Je suis a peu prêt certain qui en a qui panique dans le milieu financier.
aldin delbe on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 1:51 pm
Look at 0:59 the background. I have dying trees on my neighbor backyard. All 7 of them. It is pretty obvious where I stand that somebody wants to kill everyone living on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z6rW7koNXA
aldie leduc on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 1:58 pm
If you could kill me, you would have already done it. I am untouchable, I have divine protection, you don’t.
alain delong on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 2:20 pm
Listen to his answer, He is programed with a simple program that says that Israel is never wrong no matter what they do. He speaks like an AI with a simple programming code that is Israel is always right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCjONdaI1ns
aldie deupu on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 2:27 pm
Notice his choice of words. Typical AI program made to blame everyone else except Israel and the Jews.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCjONdaI1ns
aldie cpae on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 2:39 pm
Notice how often he uses the word discussion, partners, friends, peace, rebuild. Typical AI behavior programming with a specific set of words to use. You can see the limit of his programming when you ask a complex question involving morality where everything is not black or white.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_zveOBYejg
forve on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 2:57 pm
Ask the meat bot a question about morality and ethic. Ask something like is Washington considering the morality and ethic side of Israel actin. I bet the response will be Israel has a right to defend itself. It seem to be the default answer to everything.
The trees of my neighbor are all dead the inside. all of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_zveOBYejg
jonh on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 3:05 pm
The meat bot seem to be programed with specific preferred words such as community, negotiation, discussion, inclusion, diversity, rape, women rights, Israel has a right to defend itself and so on. Notice how many time they repeat the same words that will give you an inside about how their AI is programmed. Same thing with the financial expert on news network. They have preferred words they like to use over and over.
It looks like a simple AI program from my point of view.
EW Brother ew what that what that brother on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 3:18 pm
THAT is supremacist Muzzies dilly Hussain going up another Muzzie back passage
aldi debjp on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 3:18 pm
https://www.youtube.co4:18 we will have to wait and see in the days ahead . Meaning the meat bot is taking his input information from the mainstream media and create a response according to what he heard and see on the mainstream media. The input intf this meat bot is the mainstream media and he uses specific preferred words to build an answer. His algorithm is Israel is always right. Speak to Israel means the mainstream media did not provide this info to him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqDZ3ec_Bjc
aldie deput on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 3:25 pm
4:18 we will have to wait and see in the days ahead . Meaning the meat bot is taking his input information from the mainstream media and create a response according to what he heard and see on the mainstream media. The input intf this meat bot is the mainstream media and he uses specific preferred words to build an answer. His algorithm is Israel is always right. Speak to Israel means the mainstream media did not provide this info to him.
Shutting down permanently all the mainstream medias will probably disrupt their AI algorithm a lot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqDZ3ec_Bjc
foreve breakinging on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 3:34 pm
Listen to her, she is making the promotion of globalism in her speech.
0:07 is where she is making the promotion for the continuation of globalism by her saying: connections to the global economy and from US global economical leadership.
She repeats the word global twice as a cheap manipulation trick.
They have a preferred list of words the algorithm like to use.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkPG1_1FleA
jonh laplate on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 7:10 pm
This is my theory until I am proven wrong. The media repot on the policies. The main stream media serve as an input information channel for meat puppet like Clinton.
IF we don’t have an elected prime minister because no one wants the jobs, there is no input information to feed to the meat puppet like Clinton. You are essentially putting the algorithm in standby mode if there is no mainstream media, and no one is interested by the job of prime minister. Bill Clinton is just repeat what he hear of news and make some statemen using these words and preferred selected list of words such as democracy, freedom, choice,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWRTvqftDI4
joe lapoete on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 7:29 pm
they don’t want to govern using force like the did during the Russian Bolshevik revolution. They know this will not work.
They want that you voluntary give your consent to be governed. Because they need us to keep their civilization alive. So they use the politicians and mainstream medias as a way to manipulate psychologically people into giving their voluntary consent to be governed.
We know that the prime minister has no real power and the power is inside the governmental agencies. They need people voluntary consent to be governed. This is where they have a problem, they stupid want to be governed but the intelligent men like me don’t want to be governed.
Men like me look at the firearms law form of Canada and gets upset about it and they lose my consent to be governed. You cannot run this civilization without men like me and they refuse to give back anything such carry hand gun. they will failed it is so obvious, look at the car mechanics shortage. they refuse to give real freedom to men like me, they want our total submission or nothing. They have already lost control of men like me.
alin depuis on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 8:20 pm
They are basically using earth as a slave labour. They have successfully enslaved, the South Korean, Chinese and Japanese as permeant slave labor class for producing goods for the rest of the world.
They push the Japanese and South Korean too far. It has created a situation of low birth rate in these nations. South Korean will not be able to continue to act as slave labour for the rest of world because of low birth rate. Eventually we will lose South Korean as a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world. They always push things too far. See canada firearms laws form section E and F as an example of pushing too far.
jdoe on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 8:46 pm
Here we go. The panic has started regarding low birth rate in South Korea. they know they are losing South Korea as a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world. They know they don’t have enougt slave in Korean to keep this manufactur hub alive because of low birth rate. Immigratoin is called to the rescue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rac_-1adYrU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rac_-1adYrU
alan lapotte on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 10:52 pm
I told you that they are using China, Korea and Japan as slave labour. The problem is that nobody want the burden to manage a reference currency. In a sort of way they act as parasite ont he back of the US reference currency. If you are the manufacturing hub of the world, it should be china responsibility to manage the reference currency. It is time to transfer the management of the US currency to china.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siplpEJSi_Y
aldine on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 10:54 pm
I like the fact that China avoid the responsibility to become the next reference currency and dump this burden on the back of the US.
aldie on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 11:06 pm
The destruction of the US currency will mean the end of US as a reference currency. The nations that will lose the most are China, Korea and Japan.
joe lalonde on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 11:14 pm
The destruction of the US currency as reference currency to establish an uniform price baseline will vanish. Another nation will need to be found to assume this role. China might be forced to assume this role and internationalized its currency the same way the US had to do after the destruction of the British pound. This will complete fuck up the planet international trade system. This is why Yellen was making a speech promoting globalism instead of nationalism.
People have just no idea.
Forbe breaking news on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 11:19 pm
Up to now China has refused to internationalized its currency. But a collapse of US financial system might force them to do that. The biggest loser are going to be Israel, China, Japan and Korea.
nothing compare on Thu, 17th Oct 2024 11:27 pm
The US will suffer also, but it will be nothing compare to the pain that this will unleash on Israel, Japan, Korea and China.
aldie on Fri, 18th Oct 2024 5:39 am
Slave labour. The Asians were breed to love submission so they could become the perfect slave labour for the rest of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_zpnh3_k_w
farah tamil on Fri, 18th Oct 2024 7:43 am
when you are 20 year old, but have the face and body shape of a 12 year old. a pedophiles dream.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFE4NsbjSJ8
alain delon on Fri, 18th Oct 2024 9:41 am
I like the pink suit. It makes you wonder if Bloomberg is a real news outlet or a comedy network.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8NHuzBoHbY
forbes fuck on Fri, 18th Oct 2024 10:00 am
This make me laugh with his pink suit. It totally destroys Bloomberg reputation. He goes on and ramble about a minivan and a Bugatti comparaison.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8NHuzBoHbY
aldin debut on Fri, 18th Oct 2024 4:53 pm
Imagine a Quebecer move to the US and become the new King of USA. Imagine this Quebecer turn against Canada and put trade section against Canada just to crush its populatin to dead, because of Canada firearms laws. Just having some fun here
aldine djeput on Fri, 18th Oct 2024 5:19 pm
Or I could buy two ticket for paradise and leave earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYEgYVyBDuM
aldoe epuit on Fri, 18th Oct 2024 5:43 pm
Maybe it is a wiser decision to buy two tickets for paradise and leave earth. Everyone will be killed on earth why staying here.
Vermont’s Earliest Foot Since 2010; Early Snows In Spain; South Pole’s 1000th Day Below -20C (-4F); + Solar Max Announcement From NASA And NOAA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYEgYVyBDuM