It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
makfin fun of on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 4:00 am
Even the Lincoln project that is usually a left wing organization is making fun of Kamala.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7ZSKGN0plE
aldi ne debu on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 12:28 pm
I want to repeat that. I am not coming to save population of planet. Nobody take my firearms from me and live. Nobody does what canada did to me with its firearms laws and live. I can only work on project that I can invested myself emotionally. This will demand the death of everyone on earth.
They have a vision on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 1:09 pm
They have a vision where earth civilisation is keep alive by using men as slave labor to build and maintain it. Oh, they can image what be and be unburden by the past. Total male slavery toward women to keep the parasitic women alive. Europe has a vison for the world, enslave of men to keep occidental civilisation alive.
aldie delon on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 1:23 pm
I have a vison where women are not needed and sex is not needed. First I have to be unburdened by what has been, you know. I need to kill all the population of earth so my thousand of years of work I will do in the future will not be destroy by women. I need to kill all the World population to save the work I planning to do in the future. Kill the past and present to save the work I will do in the futur.
alan pie on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 1:31 pm
They have vision. Europe has a vison for the whole world. Total enslave of men so they can be used a cheap slave labor to keep women and this civilisation alive. Men are expendable, women must be protected at any cost even if they are just parasites. I told you that the West was sabotaged from the inside by feeding women ego with such thing as canada firearms laws.
alain delon on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 1:52 pm
There are reasons why prime minister of a nation would visit place where they have been heavy destruction, it is to manipulate psychologically people that have already submitted to the concept of worshipping authority. It is way to motivate them at rebuilding what has been destroy by pretending that you care about them. It only works on people that worship authority. It does not work on freedom lover people.
joe laporte on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 1:57 pm
It works a bit this way in people head that worship authority.
They tell themself, it is worth it for me to do that hard manual labor work of rebuilding what has been destroyed because my King cares enough about me and my futur to visite the destruction site. I will show my love for the king by rebuilding what has been destroyed. You see what I mean.
alie on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:01 pm
All of earth population will be killed and earth realm will be given to someone that can build something of greater value other then being slave of women needs because she cannot survive on their own because they are mentally retarded.
karin on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:25 pm
The sky will by turned into a blackboard where you can write mathematical equations. Go fuck yourself with your women rights and guns laws.
alide on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 2:52 pm
I will explain to you something about her clothing that is not true because I had to make for myself chest harness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OqURqnxrMA
The strap passing under her armpits is too tight and her upper arm will rube against it make it really uncomfortable and limit the free movements you can do with your arms. This is totally fake. You cannot do hands to hands combat with such an harness. If her clothing is fake, so is the WW2 german clothing.
alain depuis on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 3:04 pm
A confortable chest knife harness or a confortable tactical vest ( I made videos showing mine) have all their pockets or tools have located in the front and nothing be the side of your body because your arm movement will limit if you put tools on the side of your body. Only really big men like me can wear a tactical vest because the chest section is big and the torso is long.
nothing news on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 6:02 pm
This is how you hide inflation. I told you we are already in a hyperinflationary situation. Lowering the interest rate will accelerate inflation and natural resources depletion. They have been lying to use since forever. Why would they stop now. This is why I demanded that we lower the interest rate, to crash the system to the ground. This is nothing news you for some of us. They are already using substituting materiel replacing copper with aluminium in cheap Chinese welding regulator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7A5Qpg-Kts
joe laporte on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 6:17 pm
This is nothing new. See comment above. I had a fence made with 4x4x8 wooden treated poles. It lasted 15 year. I put new poles in the ground 3 year ago, one of them is already completely rotten in the soil. I told you that earth is a reality with a backward entropic degradation clock I would not be surprised to learn that now farm animals are living shorter live, and are less fertile compare to 15 year ago. This is why they have to cut the amount of meat they put in a meat sauce because of the infertility of farm animal causing meat price inflation. This is probably the meat taste so bad now.
I told you that earth is execution chamber to kill undesirable beings. Only the chosen ones will live.
I am getting tired of repeating myself. I have already said all of this in previous comments.
gog fuck yourse on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 6:46 pm
Only the chosen one will live and I am one of them. I receive a rejuvenation of my sexual system with stronger ejaculation compare to when I was young. I am receiving a new vision that allow me to see holographic projection in the dark. I am receiving a new skin. Only the chosen ones will live. The European useless feminized men can go fuck themself.
aldie on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 7:16 pm
These are fake CGI clothing, but they are imaginative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EalfnKh9cPw
forel new on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 10:19 pm
They use the sun to hide the holographic projections. They are only visible in almost total darkness. I am going to new serious money to buy industrial type of measuring instruments to measure the temperature by infrared camera and other shit available.
The light coming out of my computer screen is enough to hide the holographic projections in a dark room. I want to see if the holographic projections have a temperature associated with them. We also need instrument to read the light spectrum.
alin debul on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 10:29 pm
There is a projection holographic on top, at the bottom, on the left and the right. This is maybe why our eyes lens is round instead of flat, to hide the holographic projection.
They use the sun to hide the holographic projections. They are only visible in almost total darkness. I am going to need serious money to buy industrial type measuring instruments to measure the temperature by infrared camera and other shit available.
Alain Dubuc on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 10:54 pm
I really don’t have much news stuff to comment on. I feel that I am repeating myself too much.
Unless someone can access the calculator of conservation of mass of earth’s realm and modify the principle of conservation of mass, everyone on earth will died because of natural ressources depletion as it was supposed to be. Only the chosen ones will live. I am really repeating myself too much. Earth is really populated with mentally retarded people with no morality. You don’t keep such a realm alive. You kill everyone and transfer earth realm to someone that has something different to offer.
alain deplaport on Sat, 5th Oct 2024 11:11 pm
I was smoking a cigarette outside. It is 0:00 now where I live. They did something to me because I has my head bombarde by energy beam all afternoon. I was looking at a bright star in the sky. I counted 5 energy rayscoming from the bottom and directed at the center of star, one energy beam located on the right directed at the center of the star, and one energy beam located of the left directed at the center of the star.
I will need a new mental map to interpret this supplement of information when I drive at night.
Alain laporte on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 12:15 am
6:39 plastic interior, it is right there in your face. There is no substitute for plastic in the periodic table. The periodic table is missing a lot of chemical elements that would make earth on life easier. Earth is an execution chamber there is no reason to make the life of people living on earth easy. You are here to die.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtbRgXrOHao
At least the put aluminum valve cover instead of plastic at 5:58
alien lapore on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 12:35 am
I bet the interior of all the luxury cars are made of cheap plastic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZU3QE-O3dNI
alain delon on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 12:46 am
I bet the wall inside the Hotel Of Paris are made of cheap standard Gyproc, the same crap you buy at home dépôt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZU3QE-O3dNI
cheap plastic on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 1:35 am
3:55 here is your cheap plastic. Cheap plastic with a cheap fabric glued on top of the cheap plastic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cr9uvQm5Ssk
plastic on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 1:41 am
7:14 cheap standard carpet.
2:51 cheap plastic with cheap plastic control buttons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cr9uvQm5Ssk
There is no substitute for plastic in the periodic table. The periodic table is missing a lot of chemical elements that would make earth on life easier. Earth is an execution chamber there is no reason to make the life of people living on earth easy. You are here to die.
Humide everywhere on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 2:17 am
I was smoking a cigarette outside and I was looking at the roof my car with full of condensation (water) on it. It feels sometime that we are living in a big underground cave where there is a big heat source (the sun) to k keep it warner. Earth is a really humid planet, same a basement. The sky is the top of the cave where the project on it the a fake holographic sky.
We are the slaves for other beings that are using us as cheap labor to build for them a civilisation.
jean lapointe on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 2:23 am
It feels sometime that we live in a underground cave because the upper world has been destroyed by a cataclysm, so we had to take refuge in a underground cave we a fake sun that is a heat source to warn up the cave and create a fake weather system. Go smoke a cigarette outside at 2:00 AM and look at the roof and the front window of your car. It is full of condensation or water if you will.
aldine on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 2:29 am
Go look at this movie, where there is a population living in the underground world and there is a door to move to upper ground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Cp7Nr9cujc
laideleo on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 2:43 am
How accurate is this news. Is it real or it is fake.
Le Sahara est inondé depuis des semaines, et les répercussions sont visibles du ciel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwCTx0LIyZs
I am sure not getting a refresh of my sexual system with strong ejaculation for no good reason.
aldie on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 3:06 am
I will pretend that the content in the following video is some kind of BS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzwUEFDk03Y
alde del on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 10:37 am
We live in a big underground cave. The sky is the top of the cave where a fake holographic projection is projected.
The inside of the cave is shape like a tent. The warm nations like Africa live on top of the mountain because they are always warm. Warm air raise to top of the mountain and keep these nation warm all the time. Everyone know that warm air raise to top of the house during summer. The Northern nations live at the bottom of the mountains where it is always humide. The upper world has been destroyed and people have found refuge in a underground cave. The underground cave serve as some kind of isolation to minimize the heat lost. Sun is fake and a big heat source to keep the cave at an acceptable temperature level. this is why there is season on earth, because the sun is not strong enough to heat the whole he cave, it is moved around to create seasons. this is what they show in last King Kong movie .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lV1OOlGwExM
laind deple on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 10:47 am
Where is the most humid and colder part of your house the basement. Where is the most warmer part of your house, to top floor because the warm air raise above the colder air. We live in a big underground cave where sun is a heat source to keep the cave warm.
allo moi on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 11:08 am
It is not Trump that are trying to stop. They are afraid that some kind of King with absolute power will take command of North America. They are trying to prevent the installation of King over North American. Trump is just an intermediatory step toward the installation of a King. Trump is disrupting their plan by insulting his adversary instead of on negotiating with the the adversary. They are hiding behind democracy to manage the earth. We all know the real decision are made inside governmental agencies, not by politicians. A King will fuck up their plans to dominate earth population.
alain delon on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 11:18 am
Trump insulting people. trump has the behaviors that is somehow similar to that of a King with absolute power. They don’t want people to fall in love with his persona because this would facilitate the installation of King if people start to like Trump behavior and attitude.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrkSRXLPzWI
jone on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 11:24 am
You remember this one. They don’t want people to approve of this kind of talks. That would destroy democracy and their domination plan if the people where demanding a more assertive and dominate type of politicians. Trump is a intermediary step that leads into the installation of King with assertive personality. They don’t want that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiyYN2_JKPc
joe laporte on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 11:31 am
they are not afraid of Trump. They are afraid of men like me with a really high IQ with a asshole personality like Trump. They are trying to stop the installation of King with personality similar to mine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSS40Lx2t0
alow moi on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 2:25 pm
Total female degradation. Is this boosting men masculinity or killing it. Is the purpose of rape laws is to feminized men.
https://fr.xhamster.com/videos/messier-than-usual-blowjob-xhGhb86
aldine on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 2:38 pm
Is the purpose of rape laws and women right is really about feminizing and controlling men so they become good slave labour for the benefit of women first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GN-wHUpnFpk
alain labrune on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 2:57 pm
Everyone on earth will be killed and earth realm will be give to somebody else that has something better to offer. Male enslavement for the benefit of women ego is not a project we want to be part of.
allotoie on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 3:06 pm
This is the YouTube United Nations channel about women rights. You will be the judge.
https://www.youtube.com/@unwomen
aldine on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 4:00 pm
I am getting tired of writing comments. Some of these things should be obvious to anyone that is not mentally retarded. We are going to kill everyone on earth and move on to something else.
Alain dubuc on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 7:09 pm
I told you Thailand never disappoints.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsBZioRUolM
Look the face of blond hair at 1:13, he is saying to himself, what the fuck it that shit. He looks in a state of shock
allo denis on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 7:24 pm
When you meet a guy here, is it just for a one night stand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WGzCXv6yQs
Jopn stweard on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 7:36 pm
Depending how this will unfold, feminist, Jews and United Nations will get a good reality check when they realized that women are useless and only good as fuck toy. You will see men abandoning women there and let them die on their own. You will see that men are not going to be feeling guilty about that.
The West was sabotaged from the inside using women and feminism. See section E and F of Canada firearms law license form. Some of you naive people are about the get a real reality check regarding women and how useless they really are in real survival situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uNzNTLVa3c
allan levesque on Sun, 6th Oct 2024 7:54 pm
You cannot protect your infrastructures against men like me and you fucking know it. You police force is almost totally disable at this point because of the shortage of cars mechanics and replacements parts. You will not be able to stop men like once the police force is totally disable because of the lack of police cars.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-13010-critical-infrastructure-protection
We have won and continue to win everyday even more
Typicae commust on Mon, 7th Oct 2024 3:00 am
You have no idea how much this is insulting toward me dressing Musk in black after I made comments that black represent authority and power.
You will use the content of my comments but you will not reward me with money. Typical manipulate communist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvnY0Na0gJA
alain deon on Mon, 7th Oct 2024 3:01 am
You have no idea how much this insulting and a big fuck you to my face directly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvnY0Na0gJA
You will use the content of my comments but you will not reward me with money. Typical manipulate communist.
Michael34 ben on Mon, 7th Oct 2024 5:11 am
I would like to say that again. I’m not here to save the world’s population. No one can take my guns away from me and survive. Nobody can survive the way that Canada’s gun laws destroyed me. I can only work on projects in which I have a personal emotional investment. This will need the demise of every person on the planet. papa louie
allomoi on Mon, 7th Oct 2024 10:09 pm
Earth realm is too precious and should not be waisted on the hands of mentally retarded people. Everyone on earth will be killed and earth realm will be given to someone who has something different to offer.
cadaver on Wed, 9th Oct 2024 3:04 pm
I want the death of all the inhabitants of earth because of Canada firearms laws. It is the last time I will need to ask any kind of authorization from any authority, in this case the government of canada, for an authorization to carry on me handguns or any kind of firearms,
I want the cadavers of the Canadian population laid in front of my feet as war victory trophies for me fight against the existence of Canada firearms laws.
Jeal laporte on Wed, 9th Oct 2024 3:48 pm
I will get what I want, but first I have to kill all the population of earth. Nobody takes away from me my firearms and lived, nobody will live after this insult toward me