It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 12:38 pm
talented masculine men will get a realm just for them.
I will have my reality for talented masculine men where there is no women, no kids, no gun laws, no police force..
1-The west has been completed destroyed from the inside but you don’t have the IQ needed to see it.
2- We are currently killing earth green vegetation that will lead to the death of everyone on earth. see the dying trees at 2:21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S0KpW_hef0
3- Earth is an execution chamber build around the principle of conservation of mass that means natural ressources depletion will happen.
4- We are currently installing a new energy framework. Only the people with a upgraded body will survive, people where their neck did not increase in length.
We are currently killing earth populating using 4 different methods. There is no way we are going to failed.
Yes I can imagine what can be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine what can be ( reality for talented men) and be unburden by what has been (because we will kill everyone living on earth), you know as she would say
alaid on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 12:45 pm
talented masculine men will get a realm just for them.
I will have my reality for talented masculine men where there is no women, no kids, no gun laws, no police force..
1-The west has been completed destroyed from the inside but you don’t have the IQ needed to see it. See Canada firearms laws form section E and F.
2- We are currently killing earth green vegetation that will lead to the death of everyone on earth. see the dying trees at 2:21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S0KpW_hef0
3- Earth is an execution chamber build around the principle of conservation of mass that means natural ressources depletion will happen.
4- We are currently installing a new energy framework. Only the people with a upgraded body will survive, people where their neck did not increase in length.
5- We control the weather. See Helene hurricane destruction.
Typhoon Krathon makes landfall in Taiwan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiU0o94hxSE
We are currently killing earth populating using 5 different methods. There is no way we are going to failed.
Yes I can imagine what can be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine what can be ( reality for talented men) and be unburden by what has been (because we will kill everyone living on earth), you know as she would say
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 1:16 pm
There will be a realm for talented men where there is no women, no kids, no sex, no laws, no justice system. There will be a divine realm dedicated to reach and developed of new concepts with upgraded flesh beings. Watch us kill all the population of earth just to build this realm. Yes, I can imagine, YOU KNOW.
Yes I can imagine what can be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine what can be ( reality for talented men) and be unburden by what has been (because we will kill everyone living on earth), you know as she would say
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 2:03 pm
There will be a realm for talented man where there is no women. There will be a updated flesh body hybrid with a better mental abilities after we kill all the population of earth. Women are total failure and will be kill and never recreated again.
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 2:04 pm
As Kamala would, Yes I can imagine what can be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine what can be ( reality for talented men) and be unburden by what has been (because we will kill everyone living on earth), you know as she would say
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 2:17 pm
I told you that we will set the ME in fire and kill everyone living there. It is just a fucking simulation and I will change this simulation to crate a realm for talented masculine men.
I told you that we will use the Jewish elites to kill the Jewish people forever. This time we will not fail.
About 100 projectiles launched from Lebanon into Israel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9QUmLV30tU
due on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 3:03 pm
Depending how this will work, it is possible that Texas, Brazil and Thailand would be used as temporary transfers node. I piss and shit on Canada and Québec. When is Canada will protect my right to carry an handgun on me like Texas does.
aldoe on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 3:05 pm
All of Europe and France can go fuck themself. Fucking communist shit hole. I piss and shit on Legault, Trudeau, canada and Québec
alaie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 3:39 pm
I like how people think Texans are stupid low IQ inbreed losers because they love driving a pick up truck and love firearms. I love driving pick up truck and carry handguns on me. Does it make me a stupid low IQ inbreed loser. I might be one on the most intelligent man on earth and I like guns and pick up truck. Maybe the people in the South are the intelligent ones the the leftist are the stupid ones.
ade on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 4:00 pm
I don’t care about the protection of the French language. As far as I am concerned th French language and culture can die. Freedom has to live at any cost.
due on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 4:11 pm
Another one that look nervous will a look of fear in her face. Play at low speed without sound
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yC2RxEK04fw
jean on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 4:55 pm
Freedom has to live at any cost. Everything and everyone is expendable in pursuit of saving freedom.
Nations are expendable, the justice system is expendable, international instituions are expendable, the financial system is expendable, language are expendable, culture and people are expendable. If we have to save only Texas to save freedom, so it will be.
akde on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 5:02 pm
If the only place worth saving on earth it is Texas, so it will be and the rest of the world be destroyed.
alid on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 7:20 pm
I looked look like a heavily mentally retarded loser chasing color spot on the ground and stepping on them. No wonder why two people were laughing at me in the parking lot. I had a upgrade for my vision. It is not totally there but it coming.
dke on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 7:23 pm
I have upgraded abilities to Judge speed and distance more accurately. I will need money and better cars to be able to leave my neighbor hood.
jean on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 7:41 pm
I think I have an improve vision with an upgraded rate of refresh. Meaning, I can see things that happen really fast compare to before. I can see thing that happen at 60 frame per second compare to the past where I could only see things that happen at 20 frames per second. This is just a example to explain.
die on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 7:43 pm
Fuck the food taste bad on this planet.
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 7:54 pm
Thailand never disappoint with their originality.
Car crashing into solar panel shop in Pattaya injures two people, driver blames not knowing road.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCdITosARgY
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 8:04 pm
Thailand never disappoint with their originality.
Car crashing into solar panel shop in Pattaya injures two people, driver blames not knowing road.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCdITosARgY
You guy understand the joke right. Solar panel store. This is Thailand saying to the international globalists to go fuck themself with the green energy scam. Thais have a create sense of humour.
Brother eww what that what that brother eww supremacist Muzzie in UK urged Muzzie dilly Hussain to penetrate Muzzies back passage on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 8:12 pm
Supertards please ease we love muzz
aldoe on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 8:23 pm
Thailand never disappoint with their originality.
Car crashing into solar panel shop in Pattaya injures two people, driver blames not knowing road.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCdITosARgY
You guy understand the joke right. Solar panel store. This is Thailand saying to the international globalists to go fuck themself with the green energy scam. Thais have a create sense of humour.
This is the same kind of joke as Texas installing ammunitions vending machines in grocery store. This is Texas saying to the international globalists to go fuck themself with their firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynUFcCUOQJQ
aldine delon on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 8:27 pm
I am still laughing with Texas installing ammunitions vending machine and Thailand car crashing into a solar panel store. It is really funny when you think about it. it is really a big fuck you toward the international globalists that want to install a one world government.
this is funny on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 8:30 pm
Car crashing into a solar panel store and ammunitions vending machine in grocery stores. I am still laughing.
alddie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 8:43 pm
This is still a propos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ46I3kMOr0
ad on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 9:06 pm
The did some work to my vision to correct my myopie. IT is a fucking slow process. I kept my old glass and I can confirm that some work has been done on my vision.
alaguerre on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 9:11 pm
Thailand never disappoint with their originality. Look at the title of the video. Thailand day in and day out fighting against the invaders.
STUNNER WITH A PERFECT FIGURE! Pattaya Streets 4K, Thailand 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB01fX696Tw
cpac on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 9:17 pm
Notice the dying green vegetation in the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB01fX696Tw
Thailand never disappoint with their originality. Look at the title of the video. Thailand day in and day out fighting against the invaders.
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 9:19 pm
Notice the trees trunks showing signs of decay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB01fX696Tw
Thailand never disappoint with their originality. Look at the title of the video. Thailand day in and day out fighting against the invaders.
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 9:43 pm
The invasion is much more severe in warm nations, like Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam. Colder nations are also invaded but it is nothing compare to warm nations.
ade on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 10:44 pm
10:45 the colors yellow, red, green and blue. these are the typical dominants colors for the whole planet earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8O8AvcHjwk
alain on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 11:23 pm
I tell you what I do to see the spots of colors floating around you. You take a flashlight and look directly at the bulb. You do that until you can see clearly the light bulb, not the light coming but the light bulb. You go in a really dark place and should see spot of color floating around you . The main colors are green, bleu, red and sometime yellow.
Enjoy having your illusions destroyed about what you thought was real.
alde delon on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 11:27 pm
Depending how I do that. I can have sometime some of them moving a little bit left and right by pointing my finger toward the left or right and giving them order. Enjoy realizing that everything is fake.
jone on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 11:45 pm
the only reason why I am still alive it is because I have some kind of divine protection.
aldoe on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 11:48 pm
Th3e only reason why I can demand de death of the green vegetation and get it, it is because I have divine protection, otherwise I would be dead already. I have the status of a demi GOD, I guess. I still want my reality for talented men with no women, no kids, no sex, no gun laws. I spoke about this in the past.
aldoe on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 11:51 pm
THe only reason I can kill green vegetation is because some people like what I want to do with earth once we kill all its population. You cannot get that far without having divine help.
cpac on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 11:54 pm
I have a plan and a vision for the future.
I can imagine what can be and be unburden by what has been, YOU KNOW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
alaoe on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:02 am
I am just realizing a project I had when I finished my engineering diploma. It is something I had in mind but never thought I could be able to realize. Apparent I might be able to put my vision forward.
You need to have something to offer that is valuable to these beings, other you are worth nothing. Narcissism and communism is not a project that people want to be part of.
I have a plan and a vision for the future.
I can imagine what can be and be unburden by what has been, YOU KNOW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
alind on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:04 am
Everyone will be killed on earth and I will have my realm for talented people.
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:14 am
0:55 dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7z3a9YCH3E
You cannot have that much power such as kill earth vegetation without having beings that approve of what you want to be with earth once everyone will be killed
alain delon on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:33 am
You don’t waste a realm like earth just to keep alive losers, women, kids and the mentally retarded just because it is the right thing to do emotionally. Earth population will be killed and something better will be installed instead.
joe plane on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 12:37 am
This are just fantaisies made be retarded people who wants power over others. Earth will be destroyed and nobody can stop that.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-join-swift-digital-asset-trials-2025
allready on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 1:02 am
Look at the dying trees at 0:24. Thailand never disappoint.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PrO9MNdwiA
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 1:17 am
25:55 dying trees Spain. Dying trough the whole world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr-7i2PZwys
creep on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 2:36 am
this is creepy as fuck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyfnx-uKEPU
This is softcore porn. YouTube doing softcore porn as a revenue stream.
alain porn on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 2:50 am
What is the return on investment for producing something like this. I get my video banned if I show my knife harness and threatened to kill all of Jews, but softcore porn is ok on youtube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyfnx-uKEPU
notworkingforits e on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 2:54 am
Am I supposed to be sexually turn on by this. Because it is not working.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgOf0c0aRys
aldidelj on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 3:24 am
Do we really need to go there?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xr-WXwPTVX4
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 3:29 am
LOOL ostie de calisse de tabernacle. softcore porn. My penis is still soft. Is it normal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kT8kis8zZw
I cannot stop laughing at this. Women will do anything for attention. Women will humiliate themselves for money and attention. This is how I interpert this;
aldie on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 3:31 am
All of these are sexual postiions you will find in a porn movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kT8kis8zZw
alaindelon on Fri, 4th Oct 2024 3:40 am
There is a reason why I want a realm for talented masculine men where there is no women and no sex. There are reason why I called women a design failure. See videos links above. Women are losers and a waste of time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kT8kis8zZw