It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
allo on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 11:47 pm
Men in the West have been trained to submit to women. See Canada firearms license form. See rape laws, see divorce cours system. This started around 1970 with the feminist movement where men were trained psychologically to submit to women. I told you that we destroy the West from the inside.
Men have really feminine behaviors and body movements
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Never do shit like section E of F. The message that you send to men like me is Canada belong to women first and exist only to please women. When I saw for the first tine, I told my self that I will never be the slave of a women and Canada can go fuck itself. You lost your nation for ever with shit like this.
joebloe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 11:56 pm
This is one of the reason I don’t mind destroying the West. Men are too feminized and useless.
jae on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:03 am
I told you that we destroyed the West from the inside using women and feminism. We have no intentions of rebuilding the West.
alode on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:25 am
There is no plans to rebuild the West and the Jews will be excluded from everything we will build.
janlaporte on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:31 am
I have various plans for the future but I am not alone in this. I might have to make compromise. But this we agree on, there is no plans to rebuild the West and the Jews will be excluded from everything we will build.
aldoe on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:52 am
I told you. Men in the West have been trained to submit to women. See Canada firearms license form. See rape laws, see divorce cours system. This started around 1970 with the feminist movement where men were trained psychologically to submit to women. I told you that we destroy the West from the inside.
Here is the proof being civil= being a feminized obedient male
Vance and Walz keep it civil in a policy-heavy discussion: VP debate takeaways
https://apnews.com/article/debate-takeaways-vance-walz-harris-trump-5b6f219b555416ff579764048ac238a1
jaelao on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:55 am
A smart city can only work work if you have a civil population. Or if you wish if you have a feminized obedient population (men).
Here is the proof being civil= being a feminized obedient male
Vance and Walz keep it civil in a policy-heavy discussion: VP debate takeaways
https://apnews.com/article/debate-takeaways-vance-walz-harris-trump-5b6f219b555416ff579764048ac238a1
aldie del on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 1:20 am
Vance and Walz keep it civil in a policy-heavy discussion: VP debate takeaways
https://apnews.com/article/debate-takeaways-vance-walz-harris-trump-5b6f219b555416ff579764048ac238a1
Notice the use of words to manipulate people.
civil= being a feminized obedient male, communism, negotiation
policy-heavy discussion = these words are used to convince people that politicians are making all importants decisions when in fact the nations is governed through governmental agencies such as the EPA, FDA, ATF
aode on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 8:49 am
I have no plans regarding saving earth and its population. I have no plans regarding save the West. All the plans I have starts after the population of earth is dead.
aloe on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 8:57 am
I am waiting for the population of earth to die. I hate women too much to come to the rescue of earth. I don’t believe in sexual reproduction. Saving earth and its population is out of question for me.
As Kamala would say, I can imagine what can be and be unburdened by what has been, you know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine something new after I kill the whole population of earth, you know.
I can imagine a homeland for talented masculine men where there is no women, no kids, no government, no police force, no army, no guns laws, no justice system, no insects, no animals. As Kamala would say, I can imagine what can be and be unburdened by what has been, you know.
aldoe on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 10:55 am
The reason they created love songs is to encourage men to marry women. A single men like me is impossible to control. A married man is easily control by a the wife using the rape laws, divorce court, family tribunal.
governmental agencies control nations and politicians, politicians control women, women control married man, married men are used as slave labor to build and maintain the civilisation under the submission of women.
See Canada firearms license form to see who control a married couple: women
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Never do shit like section E of F. The message that you send to men like me is that Canada belongs to women first and exist only to please women. When I saw this for the first time, I told my self that I will never be the slave of a women and Canada can go fuck itself. You lost your nation for ever with shit like this. If you push too far instead of controlling a nation, you sabotage a nation from the inside. They went too far trying to control everything and everyone and they destroyed the West.
I gave up on planet earth. I hate women too much. See comment above
aldioe on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:01 am
As Kamala would say, I can imagine what can be and be unburdened by what has been, you know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine something new after I kill the whole population of earth, you know.
I can imagine a homeland for talented masculine men where there is no women, no kids, no government, no police force, no army, no guns laws, no justice system, no insects, no animals. As Kamala would say, I can imagine what can be and be unburdened by what has been, you know.
I can see what can be and I don’t need the population of earth to do what I plan to do. You are all expendable.
aldie on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:03 am
the law of conservation of mass or natural resources depletion will kill the population of earth for me. I just have to wait.
adoe on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:07 am
I am pretty sure that we created feminism and use women to destroy the West and planet earth. this is the kind of shit we are capable of doing.
alde on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:14 am
First of all, I am not killing anybody. You are all fake CGI actors playing a role, you don’t have a flesh body. If you were real, people would be talking about the fact that people necks got longer. The medical establishment would be talking about that also. I am just rearranging the simulation to fit my personal taste and interest.
jaen on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:19 am
I need to be unburden by the past, so I can move forward. SO I need to kill all of you to be unburden by what has been, you know.
As Kamala would say, I can imagine what can be and be unburdened by what has been, you know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
jane on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:24 am
This simulation lasted too long. It is time to kill it and move to something more productive. I hate women too much to keep this simulation alive
JEAD on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:37 am
First of all, I am not killing anybody. You are all fake CGI actors playing a role, you don’t have a flesh body. If you were real, people would be talking about the fact that people necks got longer. The medical establishment would be talking about that also. I am just rearranging the simulation to fit my personal taste and interest.
On top of what, we now have people that have a black mouth without teeth or tongue. It is just a fucking black spot when they open their mouth. They are just CGI actor. it is time to kill this simulation.
I need to be unburden by the past, so I can move forward. SO I need to kill all of you to be unburden by what has been, you know.
As Kamala would say, I can imagine what can be and be unburdened by what has been, you know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
YOU KNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jone on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:42 am
It is time to kill the population of earth and shutdown this simulation This is a good start.
Grid Apocalypse Hits Carolinas: 360 Substations Down, Power Restoration Could Take “Months”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/grid-apocalypse-hits-carolinas-360-substations-down-power-restoration-could-take-months
We need more of this to accelerate the dead rate of people.
alai on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 11:46 am
these cock suck are now talking with a black empty mouth with nothing in it. They are just 3D parametric models projected on 2D TV scree using a linear transformation that remove the Z components or depth variable. fucking cock sucker.
karm on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:01 pm
The fake CGI actors are programmed using what I call the basic self-center narcist program.
They don’t have real soul. They easiest way to program them is to have a narcist algorithm. Basically the can only talk about themself and what happen in their personal life.
They are programed using main pillars: the sex pillar, the survival pillar (staying alive by any means including killing, lying, manipulating) and so on.
Really easy to program unlike real human that have a soul.
kade on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:11 pm
The behavior programming could be called communist algorithm. Basically incapable of making a decision by themself, so they make a decision bases on what the group agreed on. If the group agrees that saving the environnent is good, they will all thinking the same way. It is a communist decisional group algorithm that shape their behavior because the have no soul. This is why they worship people in position of power wearing a suit. They have been designed to be governed. This is why we have to kill all the population of earth.
jdoe on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:16 pm
This is why we created earth with a limited amount of natural resources . It is to kill them all and shutdown the simulation.
alain labourge on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:20 pm
I have spoken about this in the past. Earth is an execution chamber to kill undesirable beings. It will happen once the supply chain shutdown because of the lack of energy. The calculator of conservation of mass guarantee the dead of everyone on earth.
jeanlapierre on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:21 pm
We just have to wait for the supply chain to shutdown and kill everyone on earth. What else can I say.
ekaide on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:36 pm
I have an good idea how earth is built from a mathematical point of views. Putting the equations of paper will take me long time and I will need an infinite memory, infinite mental mathematical calculation abilities (matrix, calculs, series and do on). I am just missing the interface between the calculators and the energy field.
aldie on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:38 pm
We can kill all the earth population, they are useless.
ald on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:52 pm
These places will never be rebuilt. We don’t have the natural resources, the energy and enough talented people willing to the save the US or the West. If I was in their position and I was rich I would leave the US for Asia or South America. If I was poor I would leave the area.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPBtrJHADGE
alde on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 12:56 pm
You will understand what I mean when I am saying the we destroyed the West using women and feminism. Wait and see what is going to happen to these areas. Talented men will leave first and abandon those areas. Women will be left behind and left to die on their own.
This is how we destroyed the West, one law at the time see below for an example.
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
Never do shit like section E of F. The message that you send to men like me is Canada belong to women first and exist only to please women. When I saw for the first tine, I told my self that I will never be the slave of a women and Canada can go fuck itself. You lost your nation for ever with shit like this.
adlie on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 1:24 pm
A couple of talented guys might receive a divine protection and will stay on earth. Everyone body else will be killed.
aldie on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 3:50 pm
Look at 0:38 you can see circles turning around the moon. I see the same circle on some street light directly with my naked eyes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHMliW7KCtk
jde on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 4:04 pm
You see these circles turning around the moon at 0:38. The circles turning around are the output of earth calculator modifying the energy field to produced the moon you can see with you eyes. Sometime when I smoke cigarettes during the night and look at street lamps, I can see these circle. it is very obvious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHMliW7KCtk
daloe on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 4:05 pm
Earth belong to us not to them. They are here to be executed as I explained previously. They are not leaving earth.
adle on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 6:18 pm
The CGI fake meat bot is struggling and look irritated by all these question. The meat bot need a software upgrade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt59l1cBJaQ
alie on Wed, 2nd Oct 2024 6:31 pm
I am losing internet for all of this including commentint. I don’t know how long will keep doing thqat.
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 2:44 am
I told you that we were successful at sabotaging the West from the inside and demoralizing men. Men have stopped marring women and have abandoned civilization. This is how women use the courts system to control divorce men.
Si les parents ont obtenu un jugement ou une entente homologuée par le tribunal, ils sont automatiquement inscrits au Programme de perception des pensions alimentaires de Revenu Québec.
https://juridiqc.gouv.qc.ca/separation-et-divorce/enfants/pension-alimentaire/la-pension-alimentaire-pour-enfants-en-7-questions
The destruction of the West from the inside is a total success. We have won the war, you lost the war. Very soon, every one will be dead of earth because of natural ressources depletion. We won more everyday, you lose more everyday.
Ihave wont on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 2:52 am
I will have my reality for talented masculine men where there is no women, no kids, no gun laws, no police force..
The west has been completed destroyed from the inside but you don’t have the IQ needed to see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine what can be ( reality for talented men) and be unburden by what has been (because we will kill everyone living on earth), you know as she would say
dale on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 3:37 am
I will have my reality for talented masculine men where there is no women, no kids, no gun laws, no police force..
1-The west has been completed destroyed from the inside but you don’t have the IQ needed to see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine what can be ( reality for talented men) and be unburden by what has been (because we will kill everyone living on earth), you know as she would say
2- We are currently killing earth green vegetation that will lead to the death of everyone on earth. see the dying trees at 2:21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S0KpW_hef0
3- Earth is an execution chamber build around the principle of conservation of mass that means natural ressources depletion will happen.
We are currently killing earth population using 3 different methods. We will not fail at killing earth population
jae on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 3:49 am
Someone is upset and want revenge against some else. Selling ammunition at the grocery store is a sure sign that the a purge is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynUFcCUOQJQ
adoe on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 3:57 am
The south of the US is waiting for the collapse of the federal government and will use the chaos to secede and create their own independents nations. The south is selling itself as a place where freedom lover are welcome where talented men can live a free life. It is a wise strategy from my point of view. Albert will lose all its talented men.
jae lapoe on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 3:58 am
Alberta will lose all its talented men to the South of the US.
jaee on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 4:07 am
The South of the US will try to sell itself as a place where freedom lovers can find a home. The Brazil and Thailand will probably try to sell themself as a place with green luxurious vegetation and nice beaches are a nice place to call home. Canada does not stand a chance.
aldie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 4:21 am
I told you that we will set the ME in fire and use the Jewish elites to kill the Jewish people.
Middle East Conflict: Explosions in Beirut as Israeli Planes Strike Lebanon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tocb3hLhl1c
alian on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 4:51 am
I hate Canada and Québec too much to come to their rescue. I care more about what is happening in the South of the US, Brazil and Thailand. I piss and shit on Québec and Canada.
ale on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 5:07 am
34:52 dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwmZKXV9EqI
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth and build a realm for talented men where there is no women and no kids. Theses talented men will be give access to all kind of scientific instruments and literature and a long life. I can imagine what can be, it is all in my head.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6qzYdGwQBY
I can imagine what can be ( reality for talented men) and be unburden by what has been (because we will kill everyone living on earth), you know as she would say
ddie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 12:15 pm
Ostie que je déteste les femmes, le Québec et la canada. I want your fucking cadabers.
alien on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 12:21 pm
La commission des droit de la personne du Québec. Un autre organism inutile. Quand est-que quelqu’une va protéger mon droit de transporter une arme de poing sur moi comme on Texas. Jamais pacque que le Québec est un trou de merde. M’as touted vous tuer mes tabernacle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZIghXOG8uk
joe on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 12:25 pm
Je vais crisser la planète en feu mes tabernacle de quâlisse.
alod moi on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 12:27 pm
Talented men like me will get a reality where there is no women, no kids, no firearms laws.
alaie on Thu, 3rd Oct 2024 12:30 pm
ùostie de criss de mangeux de merde de tabernacle. M’as tous vous tuer mes chirst de cons,