It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:01 am
Pleae america and the rest of the world, send more weapon to the parsicei leech called israle. Please take some of my mone and bu wepaeon for israel, please soeone protect the poor jews from genoicde. niever agiang the Jews people will be trehtre by the world.
I saluet the tsontro dielw
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:03 am
pleae protedct the jews and make more abusive gund laws. when is someone will ting about the Jews. support Israel nay way you can,
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:07 am
I am a jews fister. I fist Jews for a living. I also fist women vagina and asshole for a living. please help women and Jews first.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:12 am
I feel so bad for earth. We might have accidentally shut the making of electronics components by destroying this mine. I feel so sad for earth.
https://x.com/emollick/status/1766504587781878196
Men like me will get a realm where there is no women or kids and where we can be alone for eternity.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:22 am
This is the end of planet earth population. This is no surprise to fake a strike to hide oil depletion and natural resources depletion. Instead of telling the truth, you just lie as you always did since you where in charge. Just be looking at how difficult it is to get some replacements parts to fix cars and truck, this does not surprise me to see the supply chain shutting down starting by maritime containers shipping.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/time-running-out-us-port-strike-could-begin-tuesday-goldman-finds-highly-exposed-retailers
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,f-450+super+duty,7.3l+v8,3446054,transmission-automatic,automatic+transmission+assembly,8556
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3445536,transmission-automatic,automatic+transmission+assembly,8556
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,f-600+super+duty,6.7l+v8+diesel+turbocharged,3450637,cooling+system,thermostat,2200
Men like me with get a realm where there is no women and kids. I will kill everyone on earth just to achieve this goal.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:34 am
You cannot tell the truth about oil depletion and natural resources depletion and the breaking down of the international supply chain.
SO you came up with a bullshit reasons such as a strike to hide the break down of the maritime container supply chain.
It is happening as I envisioned it should happen when you run out of oil and natural resources.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/time-running-out-us-port-strike-could-begin-tuesday-goldman-finds-highly-exposed-retailers
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:37 am
Don’t forget to make more guns laws Canada, while you are at it.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:45 am
Please make more guns to protect women and Jews. Think of women first, Women deserer the right to feel save where ever they go. I beg you to think of women first. Remefel that a women took care of you while you where a baby. Please think of women first, never forget whjat women brings to this world
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:46 am
I demande more guns laws to protect women. I demand more money being send to single mother to protect them and their babies. pleanse procted women and the Jews first.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:55 am
In my life I have not seen on failure of the principle of conservation of mass. Therefore natural resource depletion is real and will happen,
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:56 am
It is time for canada to make more firearms to protect women and the Jews. save women first as they are the most precious commidit that we have hon earht.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 10:58 am
DOn’t forget to make more firearms laws to ensure that women are safe.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 11:11 am
I know how to protect women more against firearms violence. We will modify the folling form.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
What can we add to these forms above to help protect women more. It is a first good step to ask the permission of the wife or girl friends before a men can get a firearms license, What can we do more to protect women
I know, the RCMP will demand a video proof of a man begging on his knees in front of his wife for the permission to get a firearms license. That will teach something to men about obedience and worshipping of women.
What else can we add to upset men even more.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 11:18 am
I know how to protect women more against firearms violence. We will modify the folling form.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
What can we add to these forms to humiliate and demotivate men even more. Do you have nay idea. What can we do to protect women even more. Her signature is not enough.
There is a reason why we created feminism.. It is to speed up earth destruction because we know exactly what women are, unlike the the population of earth that is still worshipping something that is the devil and deserve only hatred .
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 11:25 am
If you want to sabotage a nation from the inside you need to demoralize its more productives members, meaning the most talented men. How do you do that. You used women as a weapon of war against the civilisation you want to destroy. How to motive men to sabotage a civilization from the inside.
By doing this kind of shit:
I know how to protect women more against firearms violence. We will modify the folling form.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
What can we add to these forms to humiliate and demotivate men even more. Do you have nay idea. What can we do to protect women even more. Her signature is not enough.
There is a reason why we created feminism.. It is to speed up earth destruction because we know exactly what women are, unlike the the population of earth that is still worshipping something that is the devil and deserve only hatred .
We have won the war, you lost the war. We keep winning everyday, you keep losing everyday
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 11:32 am
I will get my realm for talented men, where there is no women or kids. I will get my realm for talented men where they can be left alone by themself.
eedd on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 11:54 am
We have sabotaged Western civilisation from the inside using women. This above is just one example. You have no idea how bad are the damages we have done.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 11:58 am
We have sabotaged the west using abusives rape laws to protect women and demoralized men. We have used women and the divorce courts to boost women ego and demoralized men. You civilization is dead and not coming back. I will get my realm for talented men.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 12:00 pm
Woman is the best weapon ever invented. You just need to know how to use her as a destructive force.
e on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 12:06 pm
You burn all your natural ressources and you civilisation has been sabotaged from the inside using women as a weapon. You are truly fuck and will all die.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 12:11 pm
This earth was designed as an execution chamber to kill undesirable beings. It is not made to last long. Too many somebody’s that are nothing but losers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t38ub_BchNE
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 12:19 pm
women are weapons of destruction, not creatures of beauty as some people might think.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:32 pm
I won’t be happy until everyone living on earth is dead.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:51 pm
Backing away from your interest rate cut. Why? I am in a hurry to kill everyone on earth and build my realm for myself. Come on fucking loser, cut the rate like the good little bitch you are and will always be.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU1qPO9Yw4Y
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:57 pm
Come on fucking little whore, cut the rate, I want to kill everyone living on earth. If you cut the rate I might bring you with me in my new realm. Come fucking loser lower the rate to 0.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU1qPO9Yw4Y
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:15 pm
The immigrants are here to stay and more are coming in to accelerate the death of earth population via natural ressource depletion and supply chain collapses. I will flood this earth with immigrants left and right to speed up the dead of everyone on earth so I can build my realm.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:37 pm
I own planet earth and its population by the balls. You are fucked and you will die as it was planned long ago.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:45 pm
Planet earth and its poulation can die like dogs in the gutters full of shit and piss.
…………………./´¯/)
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…………./´¯/’…’/´¯¯`\¸
………./’/…/…./……./¨¯\
……..(‘(…´…´…. ¯~/’…’)
………\……………..’…../
……….\………………/´
…………\…………..(
…………..\………….\
Go fuck yoursel lefgault, trudea, harris, bident, jews irsae
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:46 pm
3e3
3ee
ee
e
ee
e
Hey, TDS troll ****ters………
…………………./´¯/)
………………..,/¯../
………………./…./
…………./´¯/’…’/´¯¯`\¸
………./’/…/…./……./¨¯\
……..(‘(…´…´…. ¯~/’…’)
………\……………..’…../
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…………\…………..(
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ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:51 pm
September 27th,2024: Originally only 4,700 National Guardsmen were mobilized across the Southeast Saturday, searching for and rescuing victims of Hurricane Helene, clearing debris and assisting first responders.
It looks like that force was bumped up to 5900, via a stealth edit on the official National Guard site. Original and Current
Meanwhile, by way of comparison (source archived pdf)
June 3rd, 2020: 18,000 National Guard members were deployed in 29 states in response to George Floyd nonsense
January 8th,2021: 25,500 National Guard troops were deployed to support COVID-19 or civil unrest following “January 6th” (which we now know that the FBI ran)
Only 5900 men helping. You cannot find voluntary men willing to come help victims of Helene Hurricane. I told you that men have abandoned the west. I told you that we sabotaged the West from the inside. See canada firearms laws for a prefect example of internal sabotage.
This is how you sabotage a nation from the inside
I know how to protect women more against firearms violence. We will modify the folling form.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
What can we add to these forms above to help protect women more. It is a first good step to ask the permission of the wife or girl friends before a men can get a firearms license, What can we do more to protect women
I know, the RCMP will demand a video proof of a man begging on his knees in front of his wife for the permission to get a firearms license. That will teach something to men about obedience and worshipping of women.
What else can we add to upset men even more.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:59 pm
We are winning, you are losing. I won’t be happy until everyone on earth is dead.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 3:01 pm
The west is dead and it is not coming back.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 3:36 pm
I have won against the whole planet earth. I am just waiting for the population of earth to die. It will happen but it might another 5 to 10 year, or it could go faster.
I have won, you have lost, and I keep winning everyday more and more.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 3:43 pm
There is no profit in recycling Lipos, there never has been. Just like there is no profit in recycling most plastics or paper or the vast majority of household electrical appliances. It’s done under Government subsidies and the recycled goods are sent to China and India mostly. The metals, the appliances etc are melted into a contaminated soup and then used to steel of all forms, even structural steel. This Chinese product is vastly inferior to conventional steels and with the copper content increasing year by year will be unusable by 2045 in anything other than a Gas Grill or Refrigerator carcass.
The quote above would explain a lot as to why I have sometime difficulty to weld steel, because it is cheap recycled steel. I told you, where ever you look you can see natural resource depletion. Recycled steels are usually really soft and lack the rigidity of real steel. Recycled steel has found its way into car frame. Really soft.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 3:48 pm
I had a recliner chair made with recycled steel from China. It barely lasted 2 year. The steel got a all worn out at the pivoting axis of the steel supporting frame. Really soft useless steel.
eeee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 3:58 pm
If these recycled steel made it into the manufacturing of car parts that could explain all the reliabilities problems new cars have compare to older ones. Some of these panel steel is so soft, thin and seem cheap.
ELITE Muzzie supertard president from UK while talking to Muzzie dilly Hussain said elite supertard presidents insert peen in "back passage" on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 4:53 pm
It looks like back passage is the liking of these two Muzzies
Supertards please ease we love muzz
ed on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 6:12 pm
I am sure what else is there to say. I explain using Canada firearms laws how we sabotaged earth from the inside using feminism. At this point I am waiting for the population of earth to die. I explained how we used women and feminism to sabotage the west.
allotoi on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:34 pm
adkelk is bette the noe, becaulw joe is enot go
allotoi on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:34 pm
Woem righr, more guns laws to protecct women, women are precisous,
allotoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 8:30 am
women reight, more gunn alws,feimn st, israel, jews, ukraine,
allo moit on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 8:32 am
protect women, holocaust, Israel, more guns laws, candain guns laws and male submssion toward women . Think of women first, women matter, jews live matter. more guns laws to protect women and children,
alloti on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:42 am
tink of womne, donse for toi proecet own moreguns alws, jews, juif , isreal, UN , WEF. stop poverty, stopd ung. Trudeau global agenda agenda21. protect women agsint gun. think of children first, holocaust, isael
addoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:45 am
protect jewish people first, think of women, feminst more guns laws to protect Jews, womenand children
adoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 9:54 am
israel jews. gung laws, rape lawsy. projtet women, justkde. ie. Idont,care boute
aalomoi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 10:19 am
Thinka of women first. pleaser scafe womenby ming more guns alws. you kike mi nyhe ssle
Holcust UN US canada europe ape jews israel lian oild
youlime mye nse nes
aldoe on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 10:22 am
Please protect wike dioe. You like my new style of comments. I call it I don’t care.
allo moi on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 10:32 am
Jews are precious and specail. Give free money to Israel. Please help Israel the Jewish communites. they have been oprrese in the pase.
Make more guns lawa to protect the Jewsih
You understand that we destroyed the West using women. The West will never be rebuilt. We use small psychological methods to demoralize men and suggest to them that it is time to abandon the West and sabotage it. Look at canada firearms license form. This is internal destruction of a nation done with the help of women. This is a way to use the government to humiliate men. This is a way to tell men of Canada that women control this nations.
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
This is where we humiliate men and destroy his self confidence. There is where we tell men that women are in charge and men are the slave to women desires. This is how you sabotage forever a nation from the inside. You women as a weapôn. They even provide a phone number where women can call. The is a way to tell men in Canada that they are second citizen classe people and they don’t really matter. This is how you sabotage a nation from the inside.
allo on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 10:41 am
You fucking losers really thought you were protecting women with your firearms laws. No you were sabotaing your nations from the insde.
Go to section E and F of the from below
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
This is where we humiliate men and destroy his self confidence. There is where we tell men that women are in charge and men are the slave to women desires. This is how you sabotage forever a nation from the inside. You women as a weapôn. They even provide a phone number where women can call. The is a way to tell men in Canada that they are second citizen classe people and they don’t really matter. This is how you sabotage a nation from the inside.
allo on Tue, 1st Oct 2024 10:44 am
You have no idea how bad we damage the West using women and subtle demoralization technics.
You just have no idea what we did to earth and the west. You just have no idea.