It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 4:57 pm
You need to start paying me a salary. It will become an issue in the future if you keep abusing my generosity like you are doing now.
I demand 100 million dollar for the four last year of work.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 7:32 pm
You fucking pieces of shit are abusing my generosity. This tell a lot about who you really are.
Jessica on Thu, 26th Sep 2024 1:02 am
As I said, if the Jews want the West they can have it. They cannot have the talented people but they can have the West. The West is dead, people just don’t know it yet. See my comments above.
https://houseofhazardsgame.com/
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 4:01 am
14:97 dying trees on Brazil
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opfmzZc0lCo
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws. I told you that I would restore earth to its original purpose: a home for really talented masculine men.
A home where there is no women, no kids, no government, no justice system, no sex, no guns laws, no police forces, no army.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:24 am
Talented masculine men need a home. Earth will be their new home after we kill everyone living on earth. A home where there is no women, no kids, no government, no justice system, no sex, no guns laws, no police forces, no army, no winter, no insects, no animals.
Leather Jackets on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:48 am
I think this is a really good article. You make this information interesting and engaging.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:57 am
You understand that women are heavily mentally retarded. Who decided to create feminism and put women on top of earth position of power is some that wants to kill all earth population including women. It is someone that uses women stupidity against women and earth inhabitants.
Le conseil du statut de la femme, remartque qu’il n’y a pas de conseil du statut de l’homme at été crée en 1973.
https://csf.gouv.qc.ca/
Feminism has been created by someone that hates earth population as a tool to kill earth population. Talented masculine men will get a home after we cleanup earth.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:08 pm
Kamala Harris will be the next US president. With her in position of power, we can achieve a faster destruction of the world. We will use women ego against women and the world to destroy the world.
Everyone with any kind of IQ knows that women are mentally retarded and should not be trusted. Why would create feminism other then for the purpose of destroying earth. Why is the purpose of the Jews? Speed up the process of destruction of earth so we can create a homeland for talented masculine men.
You just have no idea how much we hate earth population.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:16 pm
Just image how much we hate you. We created a reality with limited natural ressources, we created feminism and the Jews to destroy earth, we create a earth as a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat. You have no idea how much I want to see earth population dead.
I told you that I would kill earth population because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:24 pm
Nothing is more useful that women when come time to destroy something. Women are mentally retarded with an inflate ego and inflate sense of self worth and lack logical skills. Women in position of power to kill women and destroy the earth. Our plan is perfect.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:30 pm
Our plan to kill all population of earth and build a home for talented masculine men is pure genius. Women to destroy earth and kill all the women of earth. Is that pure genius of what.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:33 pm
How do you kill all the population of earth to install a new reality. Women and the Jews. It is that simple and easy. You did not see this one coming. You did not see this revelation coming don’t you.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:39 pm
Women and her inflated ego. The destructor of civilization, you can count on her to destroy everything she touches.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQmIyqdea6g
This is fucking funny as fuck. Everyone fell for it.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:48 pm
While earth was worshipping women, us were all laughing at you for being that stupid. Worshipping what is destroying you, oh man, you are just a bunch of pathetic losers. Telle me how good we are. Are we good or what
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 12:55 pm
Using women to destroy women and the earth. It is pure genius from our part. Look at her inflated ego sitting on some kind of throne and using men as slave to keep her useless ass alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCHTuIA23KU
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 1:04 pm
Talented masculine men will get a home where they can be alone to foster their creative abilities.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 1:07 pm
Women and her ego, the destructor of greatness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfi9L7wfwyo
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 1:18 pm
Do you really believe that a real GOD dig the into the ground to get natural resources to build a civilisations. Do you really think that. I played earth realm well.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 4:07 pm
As a destructors of beauty, greatness and intelligence the Jews and Women never failed at their tasks. Watch and learn by yourself.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 4:48 pm
Why are we flooding the earth with immigrants. To deplete natural resources faster and kill the population of earth faster so I can get my reality for talented men.
Earth population is in my way of creating a realm for talented men.
Earth will be my new home after we kill everyone living on earth. A home where there is no women, no kids, no government, no justice system, no sex, no guns laws, no police forces, no army, no winter, no insects, no animals.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 4:53 pm
Fucking losers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lczgUj4InX0
Look the losers think they deserve to live and inherit the earth. It will not happen.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 5:02 pm
Why we are flooding earth with immigrant is to accelerate natural resources depletion and break down your supply chain like this:
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-150,5.0l+v8,3446046,cooling+system,radiator+hose,10068
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-150,5.0l+v8,3446046,cooling+system,coolant+hose+connector+/+flange,11566
Very your cities will fall in disarray because of the lack of a good pick up truck to do the basically meantime on the roads, wather teratrme installations, street lights.
I want my reality for talented men and nothing will stop me.
I just don’t care about earth anymore. I don’t care about earth enougyut to fix my otherographic mistake. I am fed with your grap
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 7:25 pm
I told you that I would kill everhone on earth becajse of Canada firearms laws. I also told you that I would stop at ntohing to build a home for taltenete masculine men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVpBGhjVGj0
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 9:11 pm
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. You have not seen anything yet. We are just beginning. I would stop at nothing to build a home for talented masculine men. A home where there is no women, no kids, no government, no justice system, no sex, no guns laws, no police forces, no army, no winter, no insects, no animals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAZDX-rjDUo
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 9:35 pm
Who is inundating the world with CGI immigrants. It is us to speed up the death of everyone on earth so I can have my reality for talented masculine men. These fake CGI immigrants are here to consume natural ressources and collapse the international supply chain.
Very soon the local transportation node of the supply chain will collapse and the dying will start for real.
I present to you the Ford F-550 super duty. How will they keep running.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-550+super+duty,7.3l+v8,3448464,engine,timing+chain+guide+/+damper,5728
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-550+super+duty,7.3l+v8,3448464,engine,cylinder+head+gasket+set,5416
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-550+super+duty,7.3l+v8,3448464,engine,timing+chain,5724
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-550+super+duty,7.3l+v8,3448464,cooling+system,coolant+hose+/+pipe,11564
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. You have not seen anything yet. We are just beginning. I would stop at nothing to build a home for talented masculine men. A home where there is no women, no kids, no government, no justice system, no sex, no guns laws, no police forces, no army, no winter, no insects, no animals.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 9:49 pm
F550 and F650 are the kind of trucks you would use to do local deliverers. What are you going to do now that you have no mechanics to fix cars or diesel engines. I told you to not come and take away my firearms from me.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/rbAdsibr2jY
How are you going to maintains your smart cities without a F650 of F550. We have already won, you are already death, you just don’t know it yet
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. You have not seen anything yet. We are just beginning. I would stop at nothing to build a home for talented masculine men. A home where there is no women, no kids, no government, no justice system, no sex, no guns laws, no police forces, no army, no winter, no insects, no animals.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 9:51 pm
How are going to keep local deliveries working without a F650. What are your backup plans? It is the last time that Canada will put any kind of laws on firearms ownership, because I will kill all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPFp2sGU3r0
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 9:59 pm
I guess the Jews and Women will need to learn how to fix diesel enegine, as men like me will not come to the rescue.
Where are the replacement parts, may I asked
F-650
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-650,6.7l+v8+diesel+turbocharged,3446586,cooling+system,radiator+hose,10068
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-650,6.7l+v8+diesel+turbocharged,3446586,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-650,6.7l+v8+diesel+turbocharged,3446586,brake+&+wheel+hub,brake+line,1820
It is time for Jews and Women to show the world how strong and intelligent they are by fixing diesel engine, because they are not going to fix them self.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 10:03 pm
The cadaver of earth population will be put down in front of me as it was planned long ago, see revelation 19
6 On his robe and on his thigh he has this name written:
king of kings and lord of lords.
17 And I saw an angel standing in the sun, who cried in a loud voice to all the birds flying in midair, “Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18 so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:35 pm
I guess the Jews and Women will need to learn how to fix diesel enegine, as men like me will not come to the rescue.
Where are the replacement parts, may I asked
F-650
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-650,6.7l+v8+diesel+turbocharged,3446586,cooling+system,radiator+hose,10068
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-650,6.7l+v8+diesel+turbocharged,3446586,engine,cylinder+head+gasket,5412
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2021,f-650,6.7l+v8+diesel+turbocharged,3446586,brake+&+wheel+hub,brake+line,1820
It is time for Jews and Women to show the world how strong and intelligent they are by fixing diesel engine, because they are not going to fix them self.
I am not sure that the city I live in will be able to find enough heavy equipment operators to remove the snow on my street this winter or enough diesel mechanics to maintain these equipment. Maybe next year I will be forced to leave Canada for a southern locations.
Anyway I want your fucking cadaverse
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:37 pm
ONly people that will leave earth or recieve divine protection will live, everyone else will die.
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:39 pm
we hate this shiot lock and ouloade.
dd on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:40 pm
as is daid the sjew can hate norht maerie if they are willing to fix diesel engine themself with thel elep fo owmne
ee on Sat, 28th Sep 2024 11:44 pm
I have already won, you have already lost. I am waint for your cadaver to be delivered to me.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 12:29 am
Who bring all these immigrants in. We are. We are in a rush to kill earth population and an influx of immigrants real or fake will accelerate the depletion of natural resources.
Canada should have neve rput any kind of laws on firearms ownership. I hope you will learn your fucking lesson.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 12:31 am
I need earth for my porject of a home for taltented men me where theire is no women, no sex, no kids, no guns laws, no goverment and …
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:41 am
naole dlaie kdiela iendoie. aioema ei to,k
ww on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:42 am
Israel kdeoasdf kmdie lace duye dupe supuer
rr on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:43 am
Kamale dieie, Trudeao, kdieie , Israle, dieiemdi maie Levault.dem
rrrd on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:46 am
$1.5 billion investment for education – Press Conference | United Nations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2tTe_VFziw
Eduationd duikd ekdxie,maldoiemd;pap
eed on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:49 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r-XYIhXNws
Lebsnon aide Israle kldieakad iedi. Biden dieie Harris, aidiema dine Van Der Leygen Uerope
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:50 am
ONly sutpie people are using a welding rouche that is leaking and set uypu nade infire. Idsarel dieka ei bleien
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6r-XYIhXNws
eaueod die mdiemd ie
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:52 am
Ukarine russian war zelisney diemd e
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmZBTz91vfY
My shit is cheaper then Ukraine and RUssiane hsit put together.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:54 am
UN canada Trudeau guns future gids akdie di
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:56 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqLYb5eW7Bs
Jews andid e kdi allo maison News =sdmdd holocaust, Juif akdie money kdie
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 9:58 am
https://www.youtube.com/@Gazettedesfemmes
femmes, fdmdeie mddiem ahoome kldie money aaruge,
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:03 am
La capacsid de,die dkeo, qui aldiwlk sdieme ,d
J’espere que je me suios sied
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/campaigns/firearms.html
dkdxiem,dd
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:08 am
I recooment a theread sleand with black compone instead of white compenet. The one with black compne is better, I recoome to buy this brand if you tourch is aid einf fire while doing plumbingé.
https://www.homedepot.com/p/Loctite-Threadlocker-271-Red-Permanent-Nut-and-Bolt-Adhesive-0-20-oz-each-209741/100371833
Thjwere smust be maklde ao femimisn copemeint it to hdelkep stere mad
e
https://csf.gouv.qc.ca/
Israel Lebanon, TGrudea, Harris, merde pleind de cul,a aolsld
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwKy3shntAA
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/mazda,2021,6,2.5l+l4+turbocharged,3447085,engine,engine+kit+gasket+set,10392
supply chaine treudeal handguns laws siand eedaht
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:18 am
Israeal diepa edkei mar thereat didme Jews Juif Isrtaela aklduUS harssid de biden canad firearmas laws dsidm e
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63EP52QAhzg
amrde peoit law2 forme. canada fufture of kids, w2ome3nb firest bvefore man
https://www.canada.ca/en/services/policing/police/crime-and-crime-prevention/firearm-drug-tobacco.html
Calnad alos e hand guns cirmile women and kids first, awome ne ism id
e
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
canad hand gund snow this wintger for no snow removal beaue adi9e
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
slace id eca nde
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:22 am
Israeal diepa edkei mar thereat didme Jews Juif Isrtaela aklduUS harssid de biden canad firearmas laws dsidm e
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63EP52QAhzg
amrde peoit law2 forme. canada fufture of kids, w2ome3nb firest bvefore man
https://www.canada.ca/en/services/policing/police/crime-and-crime-prevention/firearm-drug-tobacco.html
Calnad alos e hand guns cirmile women and kids first, awome ne ism id
e
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
canad hand gund snow this wintger for no snow removal beaue adi9e
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
slace id eca nde
Remidng dod e
https://www.smith-wesson.com/product/mp-fpc-ca-compliant
CXanada gfuns laws didke women safety kids
https://www.smith-wesson.com/product/m-p-9-m2.0-4-inch-optics-ready-thumb-safety-compact-series
https://www.smith-wesson.com/product/s-w-csx-9mm
Canad difree tazeei dkdie