It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:30 am
I cannot figure out if they are heavily mentally retarded, or they are making fun of earth population in a kind of ironic way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUTRLpJvmDc
I think all the population of earth is heavily mentally retarded.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:39 am
This is the kind of shit mentally retarded people would say: speaking to the youth is like speaking to future. You can speak to the future. 0:32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUTRLpJvmDc
This is the definition of the future.
the time or a period of time following the moment of speaking or writing; time regarded as still to come:
the youth can speak to a time period that has not happen yet. The youth can speak to something that has no happen yet. You mean speaking with a sound. Sound made with your mouth can speak to the future.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:43 am
The smart bet is always on the youth. I disagree. Only heavily mentally retarde people would say that.
You know, that it would make more sense if she said, the smart bet is always on helping the talented ones first.
1:35 is where she is showing that she is mentally retarded.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUTRLpJvmDc
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:49 am
China Sparks Stimulus Hope With Rate Cut After Weak Data
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmKx9sSWRsI
What they are really saying is that the world has reached peak coal and China manufacturing is shutting down.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/coal-consumption-by-region.jpg?itok=eHuJBM7L
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 4:02 am
This is the kind of shit mentally retarded people would say: speaking to the youth is like speaking to future. You can speak to the future. 0:32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUTRLpJvmDc
This is the definition of the future.
the time or a period of time following the moment of speaking or writing; time regarded as still to come:
the youth can speak to a time period that has not happen yet. The youth can speak to something that has no happen yet. You mean speaking with a sound. Sound made with your mouth can speak to the future.
What she means when she says: speaking to the youth is like speaking to the future.
What she means, is that she hopes the youth will be able to fix the shit we are in because she is not capable of fixing anything. People have to learn how to decipher language spoken by retarded people.
I have a special gift, where I can interpret the language of heavily mentally retarded people.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 4:50 am
I will help you how to decipher their mentally retarded language. What this mean below.
Reminder to world leaders of the incredible potential of refugees – Youth at Summit of the Future
The refuges are not intelligent enough to survive on their own because they are heavily mentally retarded. So the refuges need to find a slaves to keep them alive. The intelligent people will act as slaves for the mentally retarde people and will keep them alive. In order to transform intelligent people into slaves, we need to manipulate them psychologically. So we invented communism to manipulate them. We came up with all kinds of trick to manipulate such as the Kentucky state seal, Whites racism, anti-semitism and so on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seal_of_Kentucky#/media/File:Seal_of_Kentucky.svg
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 4:51 am
I forget the internet link.
Reminder to world leaders of the incredible potential of refugees – Youth at Summit of the Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4t692S9rBo
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 4:58 am
Earth will be returned to its original purpose. An heaven for talented masculine men. Women, children, gay and feminized men and the stupid will be killed.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:21 pm
Women and children are parasitic leeches that can only survive if they enslave men to do the hard manual labour. Women have to leave this realm or they will be killed.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:24 pm
Earth will be returned to its original purpose. An heaven for talented masculine men. Women, children, gay and feminized men and the stupid will be killed.
This is all I care now. If I have to burn the whole world to reach my goal of restoring earth to its original purpose, I will do it.
Women and children must leave earth immediately.
ww on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:28 pm
If I have to kill all life on earth to restore earth to its original purpose I will do it. Earth will be returned to its original purpose. An heaven for talented masculine men.
HEAVY SEPTEMBER SNOW HITS SOUTH AFRICA; UK MET OFFICE BONUS SCANDAL; + RECORD ARCTIC SEA ICE GROWTH
https://electroverse.info/
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 4:19 pm
If you are a woman you should leave earth immediately or you will be killed including your children.
If I have to kill all life on earth to restore earth to its original purpose I will do it. Earth will be returned to its original purpose. An heaven for talented masculine men.
You want to see dying green vegetation, here it is for your viewing pleasure. Women must leave earth immediately.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hN4c5N54U0Y
I Appoint elite supertard president EE supertard his title is 'the lover' of supremacist Muzzies on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 4:41 pm
Please be ease we love muzz
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 5:06 pm
Inclusion of Women in the Future of Afghanistan – Security Council Media Stakeout
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m0uFLUQN-s
Women need to leave earth now, or will destroy earth.
Talented men like me will get an realm where there is no government, no women, no sex, no justice system, no police force, no army, no guns laws. Talented masculine men can self governed unlike women. Talented men like me deserve their own realm to full realize the full creative potential. It will happen no matter what.
ALL elite OG supertard presidents who MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment PROMPTLY DEPARTED FOR SAINT PETERS on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 5:14 pm
Please be ease we love muzz
ALL elite OG supertard presidents who MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment PROMPTLY DEPARTED FOR SAINT PETERS on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 7:23 pm
Supertards please be ease we love muzz
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 7:37 pm
I think I will lower the number of comments I do on this website. I am repeating my self too much. This is what I care about. A realm for men like me that are talented. This is what I want. Talented men like me will get an realm where there is no government, no women, no sex, no justice system, no police force, no army, no guns laws. Talented masculine men can self governed unlike women. Talented men like me deserve their own realm to full realize the full creative potential. It will happen no matter what.
I have pretty much said what I wanted to say.
ALL elite OG supertard presidents who MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment PROMPTLY DEPARTED FOR SAINT PETERS on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 8:01 pm
I Appoint elite supertard president EE supertard
ALL elite OG supertard presidents who MUZZ-19 themselves with reckless abandonment PROMPTLY DEPARTED FOR SAINT PETERS on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 8:29 pm
I love cats I love every kinds of cats I want to hug all cats but I can’t hug all cats
I’m a cats lover and I love to run
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 3:10 am
I will repeat that. Men like me that are talented and creative will have a realm just for them with no government, no women, no sex, no justice system, no police force, no army, no guns laws. Plus they will receive an hybrid flesh body with infinite memory, infinite mental calculation abilities. It is time that talented men receive something that will benefit them instead of being used as slaves by the stupid and mentally retarded.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 3:21 am
1:19:31 dying trees in Beverly Hills. I cannot keep up, there are so many videos with dying vegetation. For once, talented people will get something that benefit them first and will be put on top of the priority list.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rd4Ino6r80
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 4:13 am
I would like that we put the execution of all women on top of list of execution for planet earth. Women of earth should be executed first.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 9:15 am
i told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Nobody in the future will ever stop me from carrying an handgun on me because you will be all dead. I want that we speed up the execution of women and put that task on top of the priority list.
Talented men will get a realm just for them, a place to call home where there is no government, no women, no sex, no justice system, no police force, no army, no guns laws.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 9:27 am
I love it when people dare to oppose me. It makes more angry and motivate me to kill all of you faster. OK fucking bitch, you want to die. I will give it to all you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-cC9OB0cBs
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 9:32 am
Talented men will get a place call home without Women and children. If I have to kill everyone on earth to achieve my goal I will do it.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 9:34 am
It will be easier for women to leave this realm right now and leave us alone.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:00 am
11:51 dying green vegetation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UKTYx6w50k
i told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Nobody in the future will ever stop me from carrying an handgun on me because you will be all dead. I want that we speed up the execution of women and put that task on top of the priority list.
Talented men will get a realm just for them, a place to call home where there is no government, no women, no sex, no justice system, no police force, no army, no guns laws.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:07 am
Women are parasitical leeches and have no place in realm that was built for talented men. Either women and children leave or they die.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:18 am
Harris will be given the presidency only to be massacre later on during her presidency by an enraged crowd. Harris, her Jewish husband and her children will be kill in a symbolic ritual.
Either all women and all children leave or I kill all of them.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:33 am
It is amazing how fake the so called military power of Israel is. Somehow, Israel has never running out of weapons and ammunitions, while its enemy are always scrambling for weapons and ammunitions. I will destroy this whole fucking earth. And rebuild a heaven for talented men from the ashes of this world.
It amazing how everything is fake. There is a reason why I hate the Jews and most of the world hate them also.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:42 am
I am destroying the whole world and nobody is stopping me. Nobody came to talk with me. The entities behind the smart cities did nothing against me when I started killing green vegetation. I am destroying some of their smart cities and they are nowhere to be found. A lot of people want earth population dead, a lot of people and being want earth population dead.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:49 am
I like how everyone like to pretend that a small nations like Israel with population
ion of gay men is as powerful as a big nation like Russia. I like how everyone is pretending that a small nation like Israel that has no nature resource no real manufacturing base can have an army as strong as the Chinese army. I can wait to see everyone on earth dead.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:53 am
Earth population will be killed and earth will be given to talented men like me. If I am the only worthy talented men, I shall then inherit the earth for myself alone.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:58 am
It just to much to handle sometime. Planet earth is populated with just heavily mentally retarded people. None of you are worthy of being saved.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 10:59 am
We have an whole realm (earth) populated with just heavily mentally retarded people. Think about that 2 minutes.é
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 11:07 am
Look at this fucking piece of shit there calling for cease fire.
Brazil’s Lula Calls for Peace in Gaza
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1exC6vRzA8k
Everyone on earth is on it. This fucking Lula should ask himself how a small nations like Israel with a population of mostly gay men
can be as powerful as a big nation like Russia who has oil, wood, and all kind of other natural resources. How a small nation like Israel that has no nature resource no real manufacturing base can have an army as strong as the Chinese army. I can wait to see everyone on earth dead. This is what this piece of shit of Lula should be talking about in front of UN. Everyone is on the scam.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 11:10 am
Everyday that I am alive, everyday it is easier for me to justify why I demand that we kill all the inhabitant of earth. You are all heavily mentally retarded.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 11:22 am
In a real life scenario, Israel would have been destroyed by its neighbors a long time ago and the war would be over by now. Explain that to me, how a small nations like Israel with a population of mostly gay men
can be as powerful as a big nation like Russia who has oil, wood, and all kind of other natural resources. How a small nation like Israel that has no nature resource no real manufacturing base can have an army as strong as the Chinese army who has the China manufacturing base behind it. You make easy for me to justify the dead of everyone on earth for cause of heavy mentally retardation.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 11:27 am
Earth is just a fucking simulation, There is no way that the Israel army can as powerful as the Russian or Chinese army. It is time to shutdown this simulation and give earth realm to talented men so they can have a place called home.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 11:29 am
You took away my guns you have to die all of you.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 11:39 am
This is fucking exponential curve. Same as world debt. This is why I am lowering the interest rate , it is blow up the debt curve and start permeant hyperinflation where there is no exit other the financial collapse and death of everyone because of the lack of natural ressource to rebuild any kind of civilization.
This is probably caused by housing hyperinflation that is pushing household net worth into hyperinflation territory.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz%20%2842%29_1.jpg?itok=MlRe_RXN
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 11:53 am
I will keep planet earth for myself alone. Earth population is unworthy of earth and will be killed.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 12:04 pm
This was an easy judgement for me. All the population of earth is heavily mentally retarded. So, I recommend the destruction of earth and the death of its inhabitant and the transferred of earth realm to me.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 12:07 pm
I am running out of things to comment on. Maybe it is time to close earth judgment file.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 12:14 pm
The total control over earth realm will be transferred to me. I am already able to kill green Vegetation. As time go by I should be able to gain more control over earth and starts build a home for talented men.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 3:22 pm
Someone mentioned this:
If you read “The Future is Degrowth – A Guide to a World beyond Capitalism” what they describe sure sounds a hell of a lot like Communism. However, they NEVER use the word Communism to describe what they are proposing!
This is similar to agenda 21 and WEF proposal. They are 20 year behind schedule. I spoke about that. Talented people like me will sabotage their project from within the same the Russian sabotage Russia from within:
The pretend to pay us, we pretend to work as Russians used to say during the high of communism. This is dead on arrival.
Earth has been build as execution chamber because we hate earth population. You will die as you are supposed to.
eedd on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 3:26 pm
Earth realm will be restores to its original purpose once we kill all the population of earth. There is no avoiding this. Women will never be created again.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 3:37 pm
There is a reason why we are killing earth population: we made a mistake when we created men, women, sexual reproduction. We will correct this mistake. You are too mentally retarded to be kept alive.
ee on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 3:44 pm
Most likely I will inherit earth for myself alone.
dd on Tue, 24th Sep 2024 3:56 pm
I really repeating myself here. I have said everything I had to say. I am not sure why I am still making comments on here.