It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:26 am
Van der Leyer europe feminsimst daoe gun glasws and gtaysd skex,. bsdsm losert.xcà
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3GCQm_kuFg
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:32 am
harris bideen suppoly cahine msnbc cnn fox new feminismt, f
This is an ‘emergency moment’ for the Biden-Harris admin: Bartiromo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-IozSspkHg
Fdkine harva
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcIkCoPQIJY
Consele de dualot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgqoKn3KKWU
mone afcdki encafidk enadd
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:41 am
I always was intrigue as to why we were using the Laplace transform to solve equations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplace_transform
This is an interesting topic that demands more studies in further detail. This is something that talented people could do once I have built for them a new home after I kill everyone living on earth.
The concept of infinity is a bizarre math concept as it cannot be defined properly, yet it seems to work inside a mathematic equations. This demand further studies also and maybe it could be improved.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 10:45 am
I always was intrigue as to why we were using the Laplace transform to solve equations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplace_transform
Notice inside the Laplace transform the exponential term. Is it there because earth calculator is built using some kind of exponential function. This demand further studies also as to why and exponential term.
Maybe this is a small knowledge about how calculator works.
Once we kill everyone on earth and built for the talented masculine men a home, these questions might find an answer.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 12:44 pm
Why complex number works as a way to solve sinusoïdale electrical équations. It seems it was the main purpose for the invention complex number. ID complex number something give to us by the builder of earth calculator. It seems that way to me. Let’s kill everyone living on earth first.
https://www.mathsisfun.com/numbers/complex-numbers.html
This is the last time I will be forced by any authority to ask permission to own and carry firearms. I will kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
Talented masculine men like me will have a homeland where there is no women, no kids, no government, no justice system, no gun laws, no insects, no animals, no sex.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 12:50 pm
I have received signs that as soon as we are done killing the population of earth, I am moving to Brazil in this kind of semi-trailer truck:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8T6Z03UltF4
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 12:51 pm
Israel feminism didkeoa war aldi mea.xik emapod klj lCNN MSBVGS jews holocaust, Hitleré
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alOZM9Xcq_s
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 12:58 pm
Fucking useless women that cannot survive on her own and has to have slave (men) to be able to survive. Stupid men that worship women and accept to be slave to something with a stinky degusting slut between her legs.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 1:08 pm
This is the last time I will be forced by any authority to ask permission to own and carry firearms. I will kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 1:22 pm
Thread locker is really expensive. Almost 40$ for 36 ml. Wherever you look you can see that earth has almost exhausted all its natural resources. Our plan to kill earth population has work. Next era will the one of the talented masculine men.
Feminism was invented by us to put women in charge of Western civilisation . This was a way for us to insert chaos and destruction and ensure a fast execution of undesirable beings.
It worked so well at demoralizing men and detach them emotionally from caring about civilisation. See the Canada firearms license form where you need the authorization of your wife to own firearms. This is great victory for us as taleted men have abaond this civliaotn and will let it die.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
We won all the way and continue to win everyday. You are just too stupid to see it.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 1:23 pm
We won you lost.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 1:25 pm
Women and Jews has served their purposes. It is time to kill them first.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 1:32 pm
You lost, now you will die, so we can built a home for the talented masculine men. Go fuck yourself.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 2:22 pm
We are using women and feminism to kill all the female population of earth and destroy Western civilization. We won, you are all dead, you just haven’t realized it yet.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 2:27 pm
Using women as a weapon of war is a really efficient way to destroy a civilisation. Using women were able to detach men from Westering civilisation and use men to sabotage the West from the inside.
Canada firearms laws are a example of how we use women to detach men emotionally from Western civilization.
See the Canada firearms license form where you need the authorization of your wife to own firearms. This is great victory for us as taleted men have abaond this civliaotn and will let it die.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
We won all the way and continue to win everyday. You are just too stupid to see it.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 2:32 pm
Why am I telling you that now? Because we pass the point of no return regarding the natural resources depletion situation. Your supply chain is collapsing and you are on a hyperinflation situation that you failed to acknowledge. On top of that, the local transportation supply chain is currently failing as replacements parts are difficult to get and capable and intelligent diesel mechanics are rare.
We won, you lost.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 2:43 pm
Some of these remake are way better then the original. Listen at 5:15
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZe81bxax0E
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 3:03 pm
Women are just useless low IQ parasites. This is why we felt no remorse using them as weapon to destroy women and this earth. talented masculine men will get their reality without women and kids. All women living on earth will be killed eventually.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 3:17 pm
They are ugly and stupid because they are genetic rejects. This is why they hide their real apparence. Play at 0.25 and look at her eyes. Talented masculine men with high quality genetics will get a home for themself and it will never be destroyed again be female parasites.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh-M8pwsa8c
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 4:24 pm
I don’t care what you want. Talented masculine men have been neglected for too long and slave for the stupid and mentally retarded for too long. This will change as men like me will get a realm where there is no women, no jews and no kids.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 4:51 pm
If you are not a chosen one, you will killed including all women, kids and children.
Men like me need a realm where we can be alone.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 5:23 pm
There will be a realm with no women or kids for talented men like me . You have seen nothing yet in term of death and destruction. It is the last the women, the stupid, gays and feminized men are using talented men as slave labor to stay alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBiHgqzhfJ0
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 6:06 pm
I will repeat that. we are the ones sending migrants into all corner of the world. This will accelerate natural resources depletion and kill earth population faster. After that we can start building a realm for talented masculine men where there is no women, no kids, no guns laws, no government, no justice system, no police force, no army, no insectes, no animals.
You will not find any doors because there is none to find. These are fake meat bot that were made to consume earth natural resource and collapse the supply chain. This will lead to the death earth population.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 6:14 pm
If you are a chosen one. this is important lesson for you all. Notice how women ego can be used as a weapon against women. Notice that stupidity only create chaos. Notice that sexual reproduction is a failure. Study carefully the female nature as she represents evil in a flesh body: stupid, amoral, make her own reality, over dimensioned ego and self importance, has no survival skills other then manipulating intelligents men to labor toward her survival.
ere3 on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 6:18 pm
Feminized men and gays are in fact women and behave and think the same a real way as women with a stinky vagina do. Watch and learn why women will never be created again.
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 6:37 pm
the destruction of earth and killing of its population will continue until only the chosen are left alive and everyone else is dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bD1gwjSfwU
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 6:55 pm
Destruction of earth moving along fine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ62pAzciGo
ee on Sun, 29th Sep 2024 7:42 pm
There will be a realm without women and kids for talented men.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:03 am
I uste doint, car knoqw fto fis my done . misteo. I rpie itoe
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:04 am
Ces t rpobalem mieu, sie linnaiton UN. CNN israel Jews Holocausat Kamale Legault dide mais and e mene them,d
WW on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:07 am
Jews Israel feminislm, canada firerEME , IK DKEO AYLDEÉÉ i CARE LESS AND LESS ABOUT Earth and its population. I want my reality where i will alonne with nobob y selse.
eedd on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:12 am
I told you to give me money or I would lose interest in doing this for free. I told you to not netecl my needs as it will turn againstn youl . I told you so, go guck yourself.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:22 am
alo bdiejfu i just don’t care aymore. I want to be alone with nobody esel. I warned you about my losing motivagoin.s
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:23 am
I told you to not neglect my needs as it will come back to bit you in th ass.
eee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:52 am
guns, guns laws, feminism, holocaust Jews, glboal wammdine, WEF UN, dide d proteger ald epaehd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dgo51TgKfJk
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 1:57 am
Womem, protecct women, proect kids and childre, more guns laws, climiate chanage, WEF, UN, save toe poors, save the womne, Feminsim, Talentged meal daoe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dgo51TgKfJk
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:18 am
Protece women first, protedt children first, thinkg of the planet, more guns laws, handguns, automatic rifle, shotgun, UN, WEF, future geneation, younger leader beacuse old leader failed. Trudeau, Legault, Juif, Jews, Israel, white supremacy, black slavery, racisme, kill all whites, save black kidss before white kids, think of the poor black people living in africa, send mone to UN, Finainacile system, hyperinflatin, supply cahine golloane
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dgo51TgKfJk
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:21 am
Women, women oppression, women prostitution. women right, women equality. women moey first, women first childen last, WOMNE and more aome parasite, woen are parsite, Womeone
Moer gun laws, hanguns automtiace rifle, shutdun slug, shutgun BB , seme-automartic rifle, no guns, prect women first, ablisht gubn to protr3ect, woena
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dgo51TgKfJk
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:23 am
Women, protecdt women fist, only women matters, men are expendabel, women create life, women are p;recisous women are psecail p;rotect women emotions,
WoMen womene female women feminism,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dgo51TgKfJk
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 2:43 am
Women more guns laws to protect women, protect women first, women are special the can give birth. stop gun violence put more restriction on gun ownership.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
Save women from male violence, save women from firearms violence, women are special and most be saved at any gost, women WOOOOOOOOOOMENNNNNNNNNNNNN
EE on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 3:00 am
Pleqse protedt woemn an girl first. Please hel^p women fight against male violene plese change the firearms laws to protecct.
think of women, and their vitial role into procreation, women most be proetect first and aboubve all Please hellp women, women nned helpe againg rape and male viole. Plance chnage the guns lwas to protedct women and girl. girls arte the futur of any society as they can give birth. I beg you from the bottome of my8 heart to proecct wonen by changing firearms laws.
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5592e.pdf
https://rcmp.ca/sites/default/files/doc/5614e.pdf
WOmen need a safe palce to live, Sent free money to women so that are protecti agsijgt inflation and econome turmoil
PLEASE HELP ALL WOMEN OF THE WORLD, HELP US PROTECT WOMEN AGSINT MALE VIOLENCE BY PASSING THIS NEW LAWS AGSINGT HAND GUN OWNERSHIP
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 3:42 am
I will kill everyone that is responsable for the death of my past personality that I cherished and liked very much. I will kill everyone I see responsible for forcing on me to change my personality to adapt to what was pushed on me.
I will kill anyone that has created and voted for the actual Canadians firearms laws.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 8:40 am
womend are pefer iand mode voe preocete aaing male, Jews, israel, UN, CNN msnde
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 8:52 am
There will be a realm without women and kids for talented men like me that wants to be alone. Everyone on earth will be killed except the talented ones. NOthing will stop the creation of the realm.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:13 am
pleqase protect wmen andkids, more guns laws to protect women, plwasae thing aobut the suffering of women and kids fdirst.
12 gauge shotgun, automatice rifle, gun laws remingtong 121 gaugne sem automatic, protect women first, women are the most inporat asset of a natin. thing of them first, I beg you
please proefet women agsint tung cigfloe.
https://www.remarms.com/other-products/v3-tac-13
think what we can do when wie workd toghet and diceot to think alie ban alll guns to rpecoet women,
https://www.smith-wesson.com/products/pistols
please help women and kids they are the future of earth. kill all men if needed to assure women are safe.
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:27 am
ugly peple siw long neck and face moved forad, fake people that don’t exsit with long neck, long neck people are not reali. WHen medie will talke about long neck people. cantg you seee sll the long nemec epl
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:30 am
who is gonna speak about the suffering of women, Who will make women safe agisnst someist vilcdoel. Please more guns laws to protgect women
dd on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:32 am
If you have a long neck or and a face move forears you aer not laive. it is ok for me to kill all of you an give earth to real humamsn
eed on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:38 am
Please I beg you to protecdt women against guns vilonce, Please tii of wmen fierlst,
ee on Mon, 30th Sep 2024 9:59 am
Please think about the Jews, think about the past suffering of the Jews, help israel presente the Jews againt violnce, please send more weapon to Israel because they supply chain cannot produce enought to take over the world.
Please make an Jews holoace statut in every city so we can help the Jews healing its interanel emotioanl pain. Please white men, submit to the Jews and help me in any way you can.