It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:27 pm
You can see them panicking. They have lost control of the earth and they know that talented men are not going tot be there to help them build their smart cities. 0:00 and 0:44
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcOoStXiqSU
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:39 pm
There is theory circulating that women are the invaders and it was a reality build initially only for talented men. Women invade earth and used talented men as slave.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:45 pm
The bible seem to be eluding to the fact women are foreign entities that should not be living on earth with men.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:45 pm
The bible seem to be alluding to the fact women are foreign entities that should not be living on earth with men.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:50 pm
It is amazing the number of people that now two eyes that don’t starred in the same direction. Look at this piece of shit of Bill Maher.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/alQKEzL7TeM
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:55 pm
look at her eyes, you see what I mean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-nltfYElPE
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 9:59 pm
Look at his eyes. We are seeing more and more of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaSoio4bQ10
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 10:43 pm
The bible seems to allude indirectly that women are the invaders. This is from revelation 19.
“Hallelujah!
Salvation and glory and power belong to our God,
2 for true and just are his judgments.
He has condemned the great prostitute
who corrupted the earth by her adulteries.
He has avenged on her the blood of his servants.”
Notice the use of the pronoun her. Women are the her. Who control married men, women through the divorce court system.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 10:44 pm
Revelation 18 Notice the use of the pronom her. Women are the invaders and they need to go away.
‘Fallen! Fallen is Babylon the Great!’[a]
She has become a dwelling for demons
and a haunt for every impure spirit,
a haunt for every unclean bird,
a haunt for every unclean and detestable animal.
3 For all the nations have drunk
the maddening wine of her adulteries.
The kings of the earth committed adultery with her,
and the merchants of the earth grew rich from her excessive lux
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 10:46 pm
Revelation 17. Notice the use of the pronom her. Women are the invaders and they need to go away. Women are the destructors of civlisation.
There I saw a woman sitting on a scarlet beast that was covered with blasphemous names and had seven heads and ten horns. 4 The woman was dressed in purple and scarlet, and was glittering with gold, precious stones and pearls. She held a golden cup in her hand, filled with abominable things and the filth of her adulteries. 5 The name written on her forehead was a mystery:
ww on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 10:59 pm
Women and feminized beta soy boy like the Europeans men and gay needs to leave earth. They all have a female mind and they need to die or leave earth.
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 11:07 pm
Only fucking gay and women. Not one masculine man that can do advance math and fix a rusted exhaust on 16 year on car.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtyicZmbSC4
ee on Sat, 21st Sep 2024 11:48 pm
13:19 there is dead trees behind him. How the fuck you guys do that shit that fast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3s-lIyhc8w
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 12:50 pm
Women, children, gay man and feminized beta boy will be killed. Earth realm with be restored to its original form and will become again the homeland of talented masculine men.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 1:02 pm
green vegetation dying
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZPiBQ-ZknE
Women, children, gay man and feminized beta boy will be killed. Earth realm with be restored to its original form and will become again the homeland of talented masculine men.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 1:57 pm
Women, children, gay man and feminized beta boy will must leave this realm now. If the refuse to do so, they be killed. Earth realm with be restored to its original form and will become again the homeland of talented masculine men.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 2:09 pm
16:13 dying bushes on left and dying trees forward. Women, children, gay man and feminized beta boy will must leave this realm now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOFfWlAqpDA
This realm will be restored to his orignal form and purpose that is to be a heaven for talented masculine men.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 2:21 pm
They are repeating the same thing over and over. Does not matter who is on stage. It is always about unity and working together. They never go into any details how they will do that. They are total losers.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 2:21 pm
They are repeating the same thing over and over. Does not matter who is on stage. It is always about unity and working together. They never go into any details how they will do that. They are total losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GL27S8V2dkc
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 2:25 pm
They are repeating the same thing over and over. Does not matter who is on stage. It is always about unity and working together. They never go into any details how they will do that. They are total losers.
They talk about a new world that will works for everyone but they refuse to let men like me to carry handguns on me. They talk about freedom but the only thing they are good at is taking away freedoms from people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GL27S8V2dkc
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 2:27 pm
This realm will be returned to its orignal purpose where only talented men are allowed. Everyone else will be killed.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 2:33 pm
Only talented masculine men that are good at advance mathematics, that deeply hate women and love firearms will be selected.
This realm will be returned to its orignal purpose where only talented men are allowed. Everyone else will be killed.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 2:42 pm
Once this realm is returned to its original purpose. The talented one will be given all the scientific instruments that they want, all the scientific and engineering books they want and a safe and confortable place to live. They will get upgraded abilities such as infinite memory, mental infinite mathematical calculation abilities and so on.
dd on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 4:12 pm
I told you that I would everyone plant earth because of Canadian firearms low. Look at the dying trees behind her.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QxWBkWKx_7c
Only talented masculine men that are good at advance mathematics, that deeply hate women and love firearms will be selected.
This realm will be returned to its orignal purpose where only talented men are allowed. Everyone else will be killed.
Once this realm is returned to its original purpose. The talented one will be given all the scientific instruments that they want, all the scientific and engineering books they want and a safe and confortable place to live. They will get upgraded abilities such as infinite memory, mental infinite mathematical calculation abilities and so on.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 4:16 pm
Wrong link
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/V1JresYYFIQ
I have shit load of these short videos wiht dying trees and green vegetation.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 4:20 pm
41:12 for dying green vegetation. This whole video is full of dying green vegetation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qz13Chz_84
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 4:34 pm
Look at the whole video. You will freak out when you will see how many trees are dying.
I fucking told you to not fuck with me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qz13Chz_84
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 4:41 pm
Look at these fucking idiotes at 9:27 taking picture of themself in front of dying trees. What a bunch of fucking losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qz13Chz_84
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 4:45 pm
10:51 look at these losers doing weights training next to dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qz13Chz_84
Watch the whole video.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 5:51 pm
0:04 look at Nelson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SalkZelOPuI
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 6:48 pm
I told you that I need serious money. I want 100 millions. I told you that you need scientific instruments to see the invisible.
I told you I need money. This is flame coming out of my lighter. You can see the rays or energy coming into the flame. You cannot see these things without special instruments.
https://youtu.be/8L6zYcjMYhE
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:10 pm
Just image that fucking shit. We have people with long necks walking all over the earth and nobody is talking about it. Not the media, not the medical establishment. Nobody.
Now we are killing the vegetation and nobody is talking about it in media or in any scientific departments of any university. This has to be a simulation. Killing the vegetation is the equivalent of ruining their smart cities project. Smart cities projects relied on green vegetation to make these cities habitable. No one is talking about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJVWQEr4Eao
Look at how many green vegetation there is in the video
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:15 pm
Without vegetation, smart cities are just gray concrete boring place. Without vegetation it will a dystopian nightmare. Apparently, they don’t give a shit. See at 1:26 how much green vegetation matter for them when building a smart city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJVWQEr4Eao
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:18 pm
Killing the green vegetation is like killing for ever their smart cities project. Should they be concerned about this. Should they be talking about this in the media.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:25 pm
They should be concerned that a loser like me can change their reality. They should be concerned that I am upset about Canada firearms laws. If they really cared about earth they would have changed Canada firearms laws.
I guess everyone including the people behind the smart cities project want to kill all the population of earth dead. So I am not the only one that wants to kill all earth population.
How come nobody came to talk with me.
Find me a better explanation.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:32 pm
It is a admission from their part that if Whites men walk away from maintaining this civilisation everything will collapse. It is an admission coming from them that White men are the superior race and keep North America alive. It is an admission that they want too far. It is a way to buy peace but you cannot trust them. Their past actions speak of that loud and clear.
0:12 to 0:43
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU_OzFwbhhM
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:36 pm
They have even bigger problem then that. Even the people behind that smarts cities are not doing anything to stop the green vegetation from dying inside cities. A lot of people hate them and they want them dead also. For what I know, I could have a lot of different factions that are behind me and like what I am doing: killing all earth population.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:39 pm
I am starting to believe that I am not the only one that wants to kill all the population of earth. There is other actors that want the same thing as me: the death of everyone on earth.
Find me a better explanation.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 7:47 pm
4:28 look at the face of this bitch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmKmvQmbQqw
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 8:28 pm
They are all exponential growth curves. The Wheat curve probably represent the real population growth of planet earth. It is some serious growth. Look at the ingredient at the grocery store. A lot of food is Wheat based. The Wheat production curve is probably similar to earth population growth curve.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/CornSoyWheat_web.jpg?itok=s7QR8ST5
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 8:38 pm
You could make a fast calculation from this graph.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/CornSoyWheat_web.jpg?itok=s7QR8ST5
slope = rate of growth be per year= ((177-25)/(2023-1937))=86
It is a really fast growth.
https://www.math.net/slope
eedd on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 8:47 pm
It my fault I did not tape enter for inputing the formula. the real value is 1.75.
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 8:51 pm
Use the slope 1.75 and use th formula y=mx+base and see if it matche earth population grow.
m =1.75
Base = 1930 population.
x= number of years (2023-1937)
ee on Sun, 22nd Sep 2024 9:01 pm
If it match the population growth +20% or -20% is means it was a well carefully planned invasion operation.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 2:30 am
Cannot buy these parts a Volkswagen 2021 golf 2.0l l4 turbocharged. I am really surprized that we are not dead.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/volkswagen,2021,golf,2.0l+l4+turbocharged,3449435,engine,turbocharger,5764
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/volkswagen,2021,golf,2.0l+l4+turbocharged,3449435,engine,cylinder+head+gasket+set,5416
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/volkswagen,2021,golf,2.0l+l4+turbocharged,3449435,engine,engine+cover,12350
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/volkswagen,2021,golf,2.0l+l4+turbocharged,3449435,cooling+system,radiator+fan+assembly,2181
You can see the supply chain shutting down in real time.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/volkswagen,2021,golf,2.0l+l4+turbocharged,3449435,engine,motor+mount,5552
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 2:37 am
It is rare to see a Volkswagen in Québec. There unreliable overengineering piece of crap
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/vw-could-cut-30000-employees-germany
See above, you cannot fix these piece of crap if the surcharger blow up.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 2:45 am
As I said, if the Jews want the West they can have it. They cannot have the talented people but they can have the West. The West is dead, people just don’t know it yet. See my comments above.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 2:56 am
You are not saving the West. If you are rich and can leave the West, you should do it.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 2:59 am
Men of my talent will not come at the rescue of the West. The West is toast forever.
ee on Mon, 23rd Sep 2024 3:26 am
Earth has reached peak coal. Everything is peaking. Next time think about before putting any kind of laws on firearms ownership.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/coal-consumption-by-region.jpg?itok=eHuJBM7L
China manufacturing will start to shutdown as peak coal for the entire world that been reached.