It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 7:42 pm
As explain before, a new energy fields is being installed on earth. Only people that will receive the update needed to connect to the new energy field will stay alive. You can see them losing their energy cohesion right in front your eyes on TV.
Look at her eyes from 1:04 to 1:05. This is called a lack of energetic cohesion or execution in real time
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaSYQ_59bo8
Explaination about body update.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 8:10 pm
As explain before, a new energy fields is being installed on earth. Only people that will receive the update needed to connect to the new energy field will stay alive. You can see them losing their energy cohesion right in front your eyes on TV.
Look at the movement of his head. He is also losing energetic cohesion. 1:41 to 1:50. He is really irritated and his heads movements are a bit chaotic. I told that we will kill everyone on earth because Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtU1r39ZAFw
I think they know that they are losing control of this energetic realm and they are bing killed.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 8:14 pm
This is us making fun of women. Women are just parasite leeches and we are displeased with their internal designed and we consider women total failure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84oC-KaaNv4
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 8:22 pm
I might come and kill your personally Kamala Harris.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84oC-KaaNv4
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 8:29 pm
This is us telling everyone that is watching this show below, that women are failed designed and will never going to be created again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84oC-KaaNv4
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 8:52 pm
I like how fucking useless the government is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cNPcphRIZE
When it is time to take away your guns they are always there. When it is time to work on fixing the supply chain, there are not there to help.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/dodge,2022,charger,5.7l+v8,3451063,engine,engine+kit+gasket+set,10392
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/dodge,2022,charger,5.7l+v8,3451063,transmission-automatic,torque+converter,8668
Stupid people will not be allowed to live.
eed on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 9:06 pm
At this point (see above), any real leader would abolish the guns laws in a attempt to bring back right wing men into participating into maintaining this civilization alive. If earth population wants to die so badly I will give to them what they want by killing all the green vegetation of earth.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 9:23 pm
1:12 her fucking eyes are disappearing. Watch at 0.25 speed with the sound off. No way you are a fucking human.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K70fM8gIrxY
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 9:26 pm
As explain before, a new energy fields is being installed on earth. Only people that will receive the update needed to connect to the new energy field will stay alive. You can see them losing their energy cohesion right in front your eyes on TV.
1:12 her fucking eyes are disappearing. Watch at 0.25 speed with the sound off. No way you are a fucking human. She is losing her energetic cohesion. She won’t be alive for very long.
I told that we will kill everyone on earth because Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K70fM8gIrxY
I think they know that they are losing control of this energetic realm and they are bing killed.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:03 pm
This is what I mean. You are starting to lose your supply chain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cNPcphRIZE
When it is time to take away your guns they are always already, see at 1:04:47
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSsSo9xIWes
When it is time to work on fixing the supply chain, there are nowhere to be found.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/dodge,2022,charger,5.7l+v8,3451063,engine,engine+kit+gasket+set,10392
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/dodge,2022,charger,5.7l+v8,3451063,transmission-automatic,torque+converter,8668
Stupid people will not be allowed to live.
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:05 pm
The shortage of car replacement parts have been going for 2 years now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8ruJmW4x9o
When it is time to work on fixing the supply chain, there are nowhere to be found.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/dodge,2022,charger,5.7l+v8,3451063,engine,engine+kit+gasket+set,10392
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/dodge,2022,charger,5.7l+v8,3451063,transmission-automatic,torque+converter,8668
When it is time to take away your guns they are always already, see at 1:04:47
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSsSo9xIWes
ee on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:09 pm
You want to die. I will give it to you
Supertards please feel at ease among friends we're all lover's of supremacist Muzzies here on Thu, 19th Sep 2024 10:56 pm
I Appoint elite supertard president Caitlin Johnstone supertard her title is ‘the lover’ of
Supremacist Muzzies
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 12:52 am
Thailand could be easily turn into a civilizational knowledge lifeboat North America and the West does not deserver a savior. There will be plenty of empty condos once Thailand removed the undesirable beings with a long neck. There will plenty of room to put people with knowledge in there.
Cosy Beach Club, Pattaya, meet the staff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ORf-OEPp5A
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 12:57 am
If the Jews want the West they can have it, but without men like me. You want the West for yourself fucking useless parasitic Jews.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:03 am
We are all leaders. Typical communists language. See at 2:26.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ylrIeuf_dI
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:11 am
Fighting against hate and those efforts to divide us, 2:01.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ylrIeuf_dI
https://statesymbolsusa.org/symbol-official-item/kentucky/state-seal/seal-kentucky
She is just repeating the communist propaganda like a good robot she is.
dd on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:26 am
I told you that I would destroy Europe in a comment on this site.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UouVg3sDE8M
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:18 am
I will assume that this video is really what we see in Thailand. Thailand is always ahead of the curve. Who run the place over there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnBWkdluPnM
I care more about what is happening in Thailand than I care about what is happening in Canada. This is just a sign of you how much I hate Canada
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:39 am
They are not hiding the real nature of life in Pattaya and they are not a shame of it. Everyone knows that some women will sell sex for money. Only the Whites females does not seem intelligent enough to know that. Europe and the Jews with their progressive values have destroyed the West. See at 13:44
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnBWkdluPnM
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 3:41 am
She represent everything that is wrong with the West. The West does not deserve a savior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCrixkIkRhk
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 3:43 am
I care more about the survival of Thailand than I care about the survival of the West.She represent everything that is wrong with the West. The West does not deserve a savior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCrixkIkRhk
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 12:47 pm
I need the natural resources to build my civilizational knowledge lifeboat. I will take the natural ressource from the West and send them to Brazil and Thailand in order to build my civilizational Knowledge lifeboat This is why we are lowing interest rate, it is to kill North America economic system and sent their part of the supply somewhere.
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. As I said the Jews can have the West but they cannot have talented people living withing the West
eed on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 12:55 pm
After killing North America with lower interest rate, Canada, US, Israel, UK and Europe supply chain allocation will be redirected toward Brazil and Thailand. I am effectively killing the West and all its population .
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:01 pm
The West will be excluded from the international supply chain first.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:09 pm
The Jews can have the West, the land of the West and the infrastructures of the West. The jews cannot have the talented people. They are coming with me.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:31 pm
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA&t=177s
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:33 pm
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
Jump at 5:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
Jump at 6:50
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE&t
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:37 pm
0:09 dying trees in the background.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Bfwg9qHjy4
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
Jump at 5:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
Jump at 6:50
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE&t
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:49 pm
I will give to the Jews what they dreamed of for centuries. I will give you the west and I will even give you the Women living inside the West. The talented men are coming with me.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 1:58 pm
Look at 0:36 dying trees. I fell so sad for the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY8gvbY-bm4
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:02 pm
Look again at 0:23 dying trees. I will kill everyone because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEWaFiwt2Xs
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:14 pm
23:10 dying trees in Key West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHXCkFo7KYI
I will kill everyone because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:16 pm
The Jews can have the West, the talented men are coming with me.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:34 pm
I will kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-wSktjmAKE
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:51 pm
The Jews can have the West and the women living in the West. The talented men are coming with me, in case we decide to rebuild after I kill all the population of earth.
I will kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 2:54 pm
Fucking worthless communists. 2:39 look at the dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHZ4aYYD-tQ
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 3:21 pm
Old sewing machine still working.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD2SiI0DA98
The Jews can have the West and the women living in the West. The talented men are coming with me, in case we decide to rebuild after I kill all the population of earth.
I will kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 4:18 pm
I was sent by GOD to clean up earth and kill communists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsJ9YXHqnr8
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 4:39 pm
‘We Are Not Going Back’: Lee Zeldin Uses Kamala Harris’ Signature Slogans To Dig At Dems
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNZwM-gfZss
You are right we are not going back. We are moving forward where only the talented chosen people will live. Yes you are right we are moving forward in a place where everyone on earth has been killed because of Canada firearms laws. At least we agree on this.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 5:10 pm
This look the Nordic forest of Canada. 12:50 you see on the right this is you dying forest. It is even worst we you go deeper into the woods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnMPCOeQKLWhy
Europe and America’s dying forests could be good news
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9UprJXSVSg
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 5:14 pm
This look the Nordic forest of Canada. 12:50 you see on the right this is you dying forest. It is even worst when you go deeper into the woods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnMPCOeQKLWh
Europe and America’s dying forests could be good news
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9UprJXSVSg
Your trees where already dying. We have decided to accelerate the dead of earth by modifier earth realm to speed up the death of green vegetation.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 5:16 pm
The link of video is not working.
This look the Nordic forest of Canada. 12:50 you see on the right this is you dying forest. It is even worst when you go deeper into the woods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnMPCOeQKLw
Europe and America’s dying forests could be good news
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9UprJXSVSg
Your trees where already dying. We have decided to accelerate the dead of earth by modifier earth realm to speed up the death of green vegetation.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 5:21 pm
The best part start at 12:20 look on the right side of the road for dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnMPCOeQKLw
Europe and America’s dying forests could be good news
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9UprJXSVSg
Your trees where already dying. We have decided to accelerate the dead of earth population by modifying earth realm to speed up the death of green vegetation. We are pushing forward the execution of earth population by accelerating the speed at which trees will die.
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 7:28 pm
I took a video of dying trees at the grocery store. But the most important thing right now is to make more firearms laws while the world is burning.
https://youtu.be/KAdvXDNIC_o
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 7:40 pm
I told you that trees are dying because of the backward entropic degradation clock. Canada should not forget to make more laws about handguns ownership instead of dealing with the real problems. On top we added a speeding factor on top of actual degradation entropic factor, meaning that vegetation will die ever faster now.
I told you that I would kill everyone living on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://youtu.be/KAdvXDNIC_o
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 7:50 pm
As I said, the jews can have the West, the West is dying. The Jews can have all the women living in the West. Jews cannot have the talented men, they are coming with me.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 7:55 pm
14:12 look at her eyes. We are speeding up everything including the executing of earth population. There is a fucking limit to everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QCsSfWhSSQ
Some people with bizarres eyes were looking at me at the grocery store and probably asking them self, why me eyes are normal and why I was looking healthy compare to them.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 8:10 pm
I will need money to buy a pick up truck. I saw a spot of color around a street light. If you want me to collect better info, I will need decent equipment.
This is what I want.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFrN9sBKlVA
It is perfect. No turbo, rear locking differential and Torsen differential at the front. There is a place in the front to install a winch.
ee on Fri, 20th Sep 2024 9:07 pm
You cannot run an army without talented people that can do advance mathematics. Your ability to enforce globalism through the world using the US military is coming to an end. US does not have enought talented people to keep a army functioning at full capacity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pir_muTzYM8