It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:10 pm
We move forward and kill everyone living on earth except the chosen ones. What ever it takes, hyperinflation, killing the green vegetation, fires, floods. What ever it fucking takes to kill the whole population of earth. It is just a fucking simulation.
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:13 pm
I made a mistake Joe Rogan has 17.3 millions subscriber. Everything is fake here. We move forward and destroy the whole planet by whatever means are necessary.
https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:20 pm
We move forward and destroy the whole world. If nobody is coming to stop us or talk to me, it means that earth is just a simulation with a small amount of real humans (10 to 20 real humans is my number). This whole shit is getting really ridiculous as I mentioned in my video about long necks. We do what ever it take to destroy earth and kill everyone living on it.
WHY elite supertard president we did not MUZZ-19 HIMSELF with reckless abandonment on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:20 pm
MUZZ-19 HAS semen from DROPPUT-19
Sry typo Sry typo WHY elite supertard president we did not MUZZ-19 HIMSELF with reckless abandonment on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:23 pm
MUZZ-19 toxic sludge
Sry typo WHY elite supertard president EE did not MUZZ-19 HIMSELF with reckless abandonment on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:26 pm
MUZZ-19
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:26 pm
Si ma theory est correct, lowering interest rate and restarting the housing market will cause shortage of goods and it will be a permanent situation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU44134413
there is already shortage of car parts.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3445536,engine,oil+pan,5562
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3445536,engine,cylinder+head+bolt,5308
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,f-150,3.5l+v6+turbocharged,3445536,engine,cylinder+head+gasket+set,5416
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:34 pm
There is shortage of car parts for all the car models.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/ford,2020,f-150,2.7l+v6+turbocharged,3445533,engine,oil+pump+seal,5608
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2022,accord,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3450697,engine,turbocharger,5764
The listing on top named GPD does not even have a picture. It is probably fake like everything else here. You need a picture before you buy a replacement part. This is probably fake.
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:35 pm
We move forward and trash the whole planet earth by any means we can.
dd on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 7:58 pm
This is the holographic projection I can see with my eyes, because I have special abilities to see some little part of the invisible world
Transcription
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZHMn1TDTyU
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 8:41 pm
This is the holographic projection I can see with my eyes, because I have special abilities to see some little part of the invisible world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZHMn1TDTyU
I see much more details than what the video is showing. But this should give you an idea.
I just don’t see one number like the video is showing. I see all the numbers with a high level of detail. There is one projection holographic on top and the bottom of the display.
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 11:01 pm
I made these videos to explain to people that it is men like me that build and maintain complex civilizations. It is also men like me that will destroy what we built as a form of retaliation. Men like me are the powerful ones. Politicians, media people, bankers, CEO, intellectual academia are totally dependent on men like me to stay alive.
This is why I shown you my workshop and my shower to explain to all of who, who is powerful and in charge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DBRQe0Zat4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
As I said already, I will kill all the population of earth because of the Canadian firearms laws. If you create weapon in a goal to dominate a population you have to share them. Canadian firearms laws are violating this principle and punitives actions will be take against earth.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 12:34 am
I think some of you don’t understand what we about to do to North America by lowering the interest rate. I am trying to destroy totally Canada and the US by starting hyperinflation and permanant shortage of goods. Canada and the US will not be rebuilt because men like me will not help you. We might even sabotage the electrical grid. You understand what I am about to do. I am pushing for lowering interest rate because I want to kill all the population of the US and Canada.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 6:27 am
Look carefully. Almost all the trees in the video are dying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj6guj8vaww
I told you that I would kill the whole population of earth because of Canada firearms laws
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 6:40 am
I think some of you don’t understand what we about to do to North America by lowering the interest rate. I am trying to destroy totally Canada and the US by starting hyperinflation and permanant shortage of goods. Canada and the US will not be rebuilt because men like me will not help you. We might even sabotage the electrical grid. You understand what I am about to do. I am pushing for lowering interest rate because I want to kill all the population of the US and Canada.
Basically I have given up on Canada and US and trying force talented people to migrate out of the US into Brazil and Thailand. Canada and US will be completely destroy down to the last electrical pole.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 7:25 am
Pattaya the perfect place to build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat where men like can grab women vagina as personal entertainment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCuXLiFjLp0
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 7:30 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. The only people that will survive are the people located within a civilizational knowledge lifeboat and the chosen ones with a personal divine protections.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 7:57 am
You can see now, just by looking at the videos links that I have posted, I have completely given up at helping US and Canada. By now, if Canada politicians really cared about their own survival they would have removed all Canadian firearms laws. As I said before, Canada and Québec worship mediocrity. there is no real human living in Canada, only cheap low IQ NPC. Time to flush down the drain the US and Canada.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:05 am
3:08 look at their clothing. It is pretty obvious that here that they are not beings flesh, some kind of CGI hybrid created to be sexually attractive and be used as sex toys by men like me. Look at the clothing of almost all the girls. They are dressed as sex toy to sexually please men like me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCuXLiFjLp0
I will destroy the fucking West just because I can.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:10 am
The West is such a boring shit hole.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:13 am
Watch us lower the interest rate in Canada and the US and create hyperinflation and completely wipe out of the map the US and Canada.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:23 am
The US loves its fucking Jews. You can have your fucking Jews. I have a good, let’s give all the Jews of Israel and new home land inside North America. Let’s give them California to the Jews and see how long your nation will survive. Oh wait, the US is already a dead nations. Fuck I hate Blinken. Each time I see his face I want to destroy the US even more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rZO89zV6qI
It is easier to build Thailand and Brazil as civilizational knowledge lifeboat than it is to expels all the Jews out of North America. Fucking Jews, fucking parasites.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:31 am
Yes, I just check the CPG rate of the big Canadian banks. The one year CGP rate went down by 0.25% to about 3.65% in average. The total destruction of the US and Canada is about to start. It is over for North America. We will destroy both by hyperinflation and permeant shortage of goods and force talented people to emigrate out of North America.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 8:42 am
I told that earth is just a simluaton and we will trash the whole planet earth. I made a video about this. This one example of us trashing planet earth.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/small-town-alabama-residents-silenced-questioning-sudden-flood-haitian-migrants
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxzYKnlw5p8&t=62s
This is me explaining that earth is just a simulation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
So we will move forward and destroy the whole planet.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 9:11 am
This is me explaining that earth is just a simulation toward the end of the video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
So we will move forward and destroy the whole planet. I explain in the video that we will kill all green vegetation and lower interest rate.
Look carefully. Almost all the trees in the video are dying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj6guj8vaww
An today the federal reserve will start lowering the rate.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 9:13 am
This is me explaining that earth is just a simulation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
So we will move forward and destroy the whole planet. I explain in the video, starting at 6:47, that we will kill all green vegetation and lower interest rate.
Look carefully. Almost all the trees in the video are dying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj6guj8vaww
An today the federal reserve will start lowering the rate.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 10:24 am
All of this could have be avoided if Canada had abolish its firearms laws. I use the Canada firearms laws as anger emotional trigger. Well it is too late, I will kill the whole populatin of earth.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 10:30 am
Voici pourquoi les premiers acheteurs auront bientôt accès plus facilement à la propriété
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6awVIlHJDw
Here is the destruction of Canada coming as I said it would happen in the video I made.
This is me explaining that earth is just a simulation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
So we will move forward and destroy the whole planet. I explain in the video, starting at 6:47, that we will kill all green vegetation and lower interest rate.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 10:43 am
The goal is to lower interest rate and start hyperinflation and the shortage of goods. This could happen easily within six month. There is already of shortage of replacement part to fix cars. People will then demand a solution, the fed will be forced to raise rate to astronomical level, this is where the government will have to default on its debt because interest payment on the debt will be too high. If my intuition is correct, this should happen really fast. Once the US and Canada default on their debt, nations will be destroyed with no chance of rebuilding because men like me will refuse to participate at its rebuilding. Talented men will try to leave the West for other nations.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 10:45 am
Basically I am killing the whole population of Canada and the US just because of the Canadians firearms laws.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 10:54 am
Once Canada and US are destroyed, more natural ressources will left to keep alive other nations around the world, therefore saving the international supply chain a bit longer. All of this because of canada firearms laws.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 11:01 am
I was not able to create a emotional attachement toward Canada because you took away my right to carry an handgun on me. This is why it is so easy for me to destroy this shit nation. Make sure you remember this lesson for your next life.
I appointed elite whitey supertard president Caitlin Johnstone supertard her title is 'the lover's of supremacist Muzzies she thinks headdiapers represent freedom on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 12:07 pm
MUZZ-19
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 1:30 pm
Fed cut by .50. It is over for Canada and the US. we are moving forward with my plan. All of this because of Canada firearms law.
This is me explaining that earth is just a simulation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
So we will move forward and destroy the whole planet. I explain in the video, starting at 6:47, that we will kill all green vegetation and lower interest rate.
eed on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 1:45 pm
UK, Canada, US, Israel and Europe will be destroyed first order to slow down the consumption of natural ressources. This will leave more natural resources for the rest of the world.
eedd on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 2:09 pm
This is funny. All the economists in the main street networks are happy and want even more more cut and faster. We will give them what the wants. Canada really thought it could take away my guns without any retaliations from me. I don’t think so.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 2:12 pm
Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management’s global head of fixed income, says the Federal Reserve rate cut and forecast were “a little less dovish than we thought” on Bloomberg Television. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEOIYgIeW4c
Look at them demanding us to destroy North America even faster then we are doing it now.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 2:16 pm
You have no ideal how it is to easy to kill a nation and its people when you are not emotionally invested or attached to your nations. I am the perfect example of this.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 2:58 pm
I hate Canada so much because of Canada firearms laws that you have no idea how much joys this gives me when I seeing Canada dying as a nation. You have no idea how much pleasure this will give me once I will start to see Quebecers and Canadians dying in the street. You have no understanding of the pure hatred that inhabit me.
All of this because of Canada firearms laws.
Look at the tone of my voice is this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 3:01 pm
I was able to accomplish what I did so far because I am full of hatred. You just don’t fucking understand. I this hatred is nourished using the Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 3:47 pm
She is just making shit up. This is how mentally retarded people speak. I cannot believe she actually said that. Always this communist langue with words such as family, community and working together. Nothing for the single men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4l3-czDipeM
dd on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 4:05 pm
Every pretty women on the web is now wearing sexual attractive clothing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEjJyPs-Nz0
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 4:11 pm
you see the women at 9:11 cleaning the street with a broom. This is called a glitch in the matrix.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4cMr9MXgpQ
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 4:26 pm
It is possible that be lowering the interest rate and openly lying about the inflation number being lower while everyone can see it is moving higher has put the financial system algorithmic a calculation state where it could not deal with these contradictions and produce an chaotic result.
Basically we introduced a glitch in the financial matrix.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 4:34 pm
Maybe some people are starting to see that we are serious about crashing the financial system and killing everyone on earth.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 4:44 pm
People just don’t understand how hatred can be a great motivator. With hatred you kill all the population of earth and fell good about it.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 4:48 pm
People know that I am serious about kill the population of Canada and US. Somme people understand on vicious are my moved to lower interest rate and kill the green vegetation.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 4:58 pm
Some people know that they only to apaise my hatred is to put in front of my feet all cadavers of earth inhabitants. They understand that if I am given full power I will kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws. The politicians and leftists don’t understand this, but other people do.
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 5:25 pm
These fucking cock sucker took the price of gold down. Look at these fucking vertical line.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00
ee on Wed, 18th Sep 2024 7:17 pm
This negro went to Pattaya. They build a new red light district and it is well done. The negro comment on this at the end. That Thailand would become civilizational knowledge lifeboat would not surprised me at all. Turn on the automatic translation, the negro is a bit difficult to hear. Whites like me are not interested at reviving the West. If the Jews want the West, they can have it but without us. Negro finish his video by saying, you can sit in these bar for a long time and have fun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVIyGBfAYZQ