It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
T on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:59 pm
Think about the whole population of earth is heavily mentally retarded. This fucking planet is useless to us, except for a small number of of high IQ men, probably between 10 to 20 people on earth that deserve to be saved.
This is the kind of shit you would in movies. It is not the kind of shit you thought you would see in real life.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:12 pm
LIVE: Plant Explosion in La Porte, Texas | Heavy Flames in La Porte Pipeline | USA News Live | N18G
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTRvk92GuMI
P.E.I. ferry crashes into wharf, out of service for 2 weeks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6JlqL9cKTU
I told that we are going to kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. You have nothing yet.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:56 pm
I have a video of me sitting on the toilet bowl and humiliating myself for YouTube view and money. Should I put it on the youTube. We see partially my ugly face. I need money so I am willing to humiliate myself for money.
What should I do.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 2:03 pm
I have reactivated my account. No sure how long I will keep it up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Em-H9HDkVY
This civilisation is retarded. Because I made a video where I insulted the Jews and show some knife action. I have to take this course below. This is called obedience training. This is from YouTube below.
You’ve received a warning. You can take a policy training which will remove the warning after 90 days.
They are training people to obey them. I explained everything regarding the cell phone is becoming your identification cards. They never stop. They only to stop them is to kill them.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 2:10 pm
Basically as I sais they need to control people because smart cities are really fragile and it is easy to lose control of them. You have to teach people to worship and obey authority. YouTube is doing speech and thoughts obedience training. It is an obeisance training based an punishment and reward if you behave properly.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 2:14 pm
The goal of censorship on internet platform is to control you. It is to train you at obeying authority. The problems are the Whites men like me that can easily sabotage the electrical grid. Without Whites men like me, their smart cities will not work. They went way too far. Canada firearms laws is the proof at how far they are willing to go to control psychologically the population.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 2:23 pm
It was well know in the past that you don’t bother yourself with dead threat. If someone come to kill you, then you deal with it, otherwise in the past nobody would care. There is no such thing as hate speech. Hate speech should be rename verbal obedience training as I explained above.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 2:48 pm
I might put a video of me pooping on my the toilet bowl to see what will happen and what kind of obedient training they will push on me,
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 3:42 pm
I still believe they went too far into taking people rights away and Whites men like me have abandoned this civilization. I don’t believe we can saver earth at this point. Canada firearms laws are the typical example of going to far and making it unable for them to back down.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 3:49 pm
I still believe they went too far into taking people rights away and Whites men like me have abandoned this civilization. I don’t believe we can saver earth at this point. Canada firearms laws are the typical example of going too far and making it unable for them to back down.
Basically the population of earth is too mentally retarded to be keep alive. We will forward and kill all the population of earth except the chosen ones.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 3:53 pm
I am the boss. We are moving forward and killing all the population of earth.
You´re The Boss – Marcus Nimbler – with Nat Roser & Anna Louise
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1xdZGA3QZY
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 3:58 pm
All the resources should be redirected toward the chosen ones to help them achieve their full potential and even more. Accelerated termination of earth project is desirable.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 4:06 pm
All the resources should be redirected toward the chosen ones to help them achieve their full potential and even more. Accelerated termination of earth project is desirable. This decision is finale and will not revised. Start accelerated execution of earth population.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 4:28 pm
Des élections fédérales sous peu ? Notre panel de journalistes en discute — 16 septembre 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDTmhA-0Jqg
It does not matter if you call an election. I gave Canada plenty of time to change the Canadians firearms laws. As written above, accelerated execution of earth population will be starting soon.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 4:51 pm
At 2:49 there is a big hole. One tree is missing. Tree used to be where the White char is at 2:58
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tigvQniv78E
I gave you plenty of time to change Canada firearms laws.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 5:51 pm
I have put a new video on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DBRQe0Zat4
Je ne suis pas un trou du cul comme vos autres- atelier
dd on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 6:30 pm
I have put a new video on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DBRQe0Zat4
Je ne suis pas un trou du cul comme vos autres- atelier.
For me, if the system collapses it is blessing. It means that I will by able buy all the guns that I want without being bother by the useless government. Are you ready for the purge coming with the collapse.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 6:45 pm
If I can I will kill, after the collapse, any politicians that voted in favor of Canada firearms laws. This include past and present politicians.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 7:05 pm
Some of us, men like me, have been waiting for this moment for a long. They moment where we will be able to kill who we want without having to deal with the police or the army. It is finally our time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DBRQe0Zat4
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 7:08 pm
Some of us, men like me, have been waiting for this moment for a long time. The moment where we will be able to kill who we want without having to deal with the police or the army. It is finally our time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DBRQe0Zat4
dd on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 7:18 pm
Look at this bitch eyes. Look at the left one. Fucking ugly monster. See at 0:01
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4OyGtFExVo
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 7:22 pm
our time has come. The time of the right wing men. We will shine like we never did before. We will kill over and over people that we hate. One at time.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 7:38 pm
After the collapse, I will kill all the politicians that cross my path and enjoy every moment of your suffering. We are coming for all of you.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 7:46 pm
You want me to make a video about my tactical vests that contain made with a utility knife to do autopsies on politicians. I need to autopsies your long neck. I have trouble that you are really alive. A utility knife is almost the equivalent of a surgical knife. Big knife are not sharp enough to do autopsies on people necks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4OyGtFExVo
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 7:52 pm
You want me to make a video about my tactical vests that contain made with a utility knife to do autopsies on politicians. I need to autopsies your long neck. I have trouble that you are really alive. A utility knife is almost the equivalent of a surgical knife. Big knife are not sharp enough to do autopsies on people necks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4OyGtFExVo
The autopsy will be done while you are alive. I want to see how good is your pain CGI algorithm. I want to see the fear in your eyes to see how good is your fear CGI algorithm.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 8:00 pm
You want me to make a video about my tactical vests that contain made with a utility knife to do autopsies on politicians. I need to autopsies your long neck. I have trouble to believe that you are really alive. A utility knife is almost the equivalent of a surgical knife. Big knife are not sharp enough to do autopsies on people necks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4OyGtFExVo
The autopsy will be done while you are alive. I want to see how good is your pain CGI algorithm. I want to see the fear in your eyes to see how good is your fear CGI algorithm.
I bought a mini camera to record the whole scene while I kill you. This way I will able to analyse your fear and pain CGI algorithm from the confort on my home. The make acceptable videos quality these mini camera and can be carry everywhere to go. See below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DBRQe0Zat4
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 9:09 pm
I will regret this all my life. I want to see what YouTube will do and what kind of obedience training they will suggest to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fze-HCPoiEo
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 11:26 pm
I will live you will die
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 12:38 am
trump face at 0:01. It is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCZhtnvLHLE
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 1:37 am
3:35 dying trees. I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RcCEQ4HJso
Here it is me telling you that I will kill everyone one earth at 5:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:12 am
It is really over for Europe. I will avoid Europe. I cannot figure out if she is mentally sick and believe her own BS or she is making fun of Europeans. Why is she still alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:25 am
I think the bitch is mentally sick. See at 10:51 commissioner Economy and productivity, Implementation and Simplification. Is she mentally sick or is she making fun of European population. This is the kind of thinking a mentally sick person would show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:28 am
12:13 Climat, Net-Zero and Clean Growth. Is this a fucking joke or what.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:34 am
She looks like someone that wants to cry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:36 am
Take the video below, turn off the sound and set the speed to 0.25. Tell me what you see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:42 am
I think I said that I would destroy Europe, 3 year ago in a comment I made on this website.
Take the video below, turn off the sound and set the speed to 0.25. Tell me what you see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:46 am
15:55 to 16:01 check her hands. Check her hands. Check it out. Turn the sound off and set the speed at 0.25.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:49 am
Don’t fuck with me or I will destroy you, like I destroyed Von Der Leyen.
15:55 to 16:01 check her hands. Check her hands. Check it out. Turn the sound off and set the speed at 0.25.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:08 am
She is losing her energetic cohesion because of the installation of the new energy field among other things. She is obviously not a real human.
Check her hands. Turn the sound off and set the speed at 0.25.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
You should be really careful when you fucked with me. I might retaliate.
eee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:34 am
I did not look at the whole video but I think Von Der Leyen does not have a tongue. Her mouth is a black hole with teeth in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:38 am
I told some of you to not fuck with me.
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 11:54 am
This is 3 year ago, We went and change the past by turning the green vegetation into dying vegetation at 7:55. You have two rows left and right of dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxhB7oCgJ84
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RcCEQ4HJso
Here it is me telling you that I will kill everyone one earth at 5:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 12:00 pm
Go at 10:24 to see only dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxhB7oCgJ84
I told you that I will kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Here it is me telling you that I will kill everyone one earth at 5:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy12LmkE7LA
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 12:10 pm
While I am killing earth vegetation, we will start lowering interest rate to solidify in a permeant manner inflation. We will send earth into an never ending hyperinflationary spirale from which earth will never get out of. We will kill the economy as the same time that we are killing earth vegetation. We are slowly preparing the narrative to justify interest rate cuts.
Canada’s inflation rate at lowest level in more than 3 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uk4_VnR-25o
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 1:05 pm
I just watch some parts of that shit again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi08aHByIXs
My first thoughts are, is Von Der Leyen heavily mentally retarded? Is she so mentally retarded that she believe her own BS? If she is not mentally retarded, is she making fun of the Europeans? Because it really seems she is making fun of Europeans
Set the speed at 0.25 to see her disgusting face. She has the face of someone in total panic through the whole vide.
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 1:30 pm
I published a new video on YouTube named. Are we invaded by beings coming from the inner earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 4:01 pm
I never realized how some of my gestures look kind of violent.
1:32 the way I throw away the pencil
2:54 the way I push the knife in its case
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 4:16 pm
I always knew that I had good muscular control and a good eyes and hand coordination. But wow, see how I use the knife to push away the black glove at 3:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 5:56 pm
We have rows of trees dying in Pattaya Thailand and in Fort Lauderdale. Nobody is talking about this is in the media. Nobody care that the trees are dying all over the world. Same story as the long necks nobody cares.
See at 14:35 for dying trees in Pattaya
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkspwAXlBWc
Go at 10:24 to see only dying trees in Florida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxhB7oCgJ84
My video as to why nobody is talking about long neck people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U_xky0lrKE
This has to be a simulation.
ee on Tue, 17th Sep 2024 6:05 pm
Nobody is watching the videos that I put on my YouTube. It is almost as everything is fake. Now way Joe Rogan has 1.73 millions subscribers. We move forward we continue killing the green vegetation and we lower the interest rate to restart the housing market and deplete the last natural ressources and shortage of goods become a normal thing.