It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 6:38 pm
Was I serious about killing Legault, Trudeau and Leblanc. It is just a matter of time. Notice how fast my arms are and a precise control of my arm muscles I have when I was cutting the paper with the knife. I am a very dangerous and a really capable killer.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 7:30 pm
This video was posted 4 hours ago after I posted the knife harness video. You stupid cock sucker have no idea.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wToGJddJHHA
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 8:08 pm
I want everyone dead on earth because of Canada firearms laws. This is not negociable.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 8:18 pm
This has been tried before. I think we tried something like this on east coast of Canada and it did not work. They are so desperate to save their worthless life they will push anything. Only the chosen ones will live. By looking at the skin on your forearm, you should have a idea if you might be saved.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC6VmXvhst4
eee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 8:22 pm
Only the chosen ones will live. By looking at the skin on your forearm, you should have a idea if you might be saved.
See 1:03
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Em-H9HDkVY
dd on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 8:24 pm
Only the chosen ones will live. By looking at the skin on your forearm, you should have a idea if you might be saved.
See 1:03
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Em-H9HDkVY
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU03
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 8:39 pm
I will repeat that. I will kill all the population of earth just because of canada firearms laws.Just wait and see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Em-H9HDkVY
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 8:44 pm
0:10 look at your dying trees miami.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9G73GyFnpY
I will repeat that. I will kill all the population of earth just because of canada firearms laws. Just wait and see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Em-H9HDkVY
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 9:01 pm
64% of family doctor in Québec are women. I told you that men like me have abandoned this civilisation. Who is going to fix your fucking car, the Jews. I want to see that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwH2WlkFjkY
Fuck I hate women.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 9:07 pm
I want to know who will fix your fucking police cars: women, the fucking Jews. I want to see that.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 9:31 pm
I delete my YouTube account it is a waste of time. Only losers post videos on YouTube.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 9:32 pm
I just fucking don’t care about planet earth and its population. I still think you all deserver to die.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 9:34 pm
8 people look at my video. Nobody is reading my comments. The internet is a fucking waste of time.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 9:38 pm
I am pretty sure that there is very few real human on earth. Probably something around 10 to 20 real humans here on earth. The rest are just low IQ robot.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 10:12 pm
I guess it is time to stop writing comment. I might be the only real human.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:12 am
They are not afraid to tell men like me that I should be there personal slave because I have an high IQ. Neighbors that shovel you grass, means neighbors that will do the hard manual labor that they are not capable of doing themself. I want to own personal slave is what she is saying. They never give anything in return and demand everything. Look at the Canadians firearms laws in Canada. They took away almost all my rights and they still want to take more. They are starting to panic because Whites me like have abandoned this civilisations and we will let it die. See at 18:36
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT-aTrarLrw
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:15 am
You nice people. Means they are trying to show to Whites men like me that we matters to them for the hard work we do for them. It is a sign of total panic. They know it over for earth.
See at 18:36
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT-aTrarLrw
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:23 am
My feeling is that they are starting to build Thailand as a civilizational knowledge lifeboat for men like me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eArE31wecyk
2:17 the clothing are getting better and better and more sexually appealing.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:24 am
2:27 two guys on the left are using one girl as a sex toy.
My feeling is that they are starting to build Thailand as a civilizational knowledge lifeboat for men like me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eArE31wecyk
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:36 am
I am showing you all these videos and Canada still does not have the courage to abolish all the Canadians firearms laws to appease me and maybe keep me involve in the well being of Canada. They want me to leave Canada. Typical communists, all shooting for mediocrity.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 1:46 am
Earth is only a simulation. They only need the chosen ones to explain to them how earth mathematics works. All the rest of earth population is expendable and will be killed with extreme prejudice.
2:27 two guys on the left are using one girl as a sex toy.
My feeling is that they are starting to build Thailand as a civilizational knowledge lifeboat for men like me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eArE31wecyk
It is pretty obvious be looking at 2:17 that earth is simulation. NPC characters will be killed with extreme violence.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 2:07 am
Floods in Europe 0:33 I told that I would kill everyone living on earth because of Canada firearms laws. Do you still have doubts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC17_AJSooU
Notice the length of this video 4:44. 444 means that GOD is happy to bring destruction on Europe and might bring some more in the future.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 2:57 am
Fuck the West is such a boring shit hole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eArE31wecyk
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 3:07 am
Look at the dying in Thailand at 4:43. I told you that I would kill everyone living on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azXEo3pD7Fw
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 3:20 am
We have much more in common that separated us. See at 3:05
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTVY60IMtZ4
What is separating us. Whites men like me have separated from the West or if you wish we have abandoned the West. Said in another way, we needs the Whites men slave to come back and keep us alive is what she is saying in coded language. I fucking hate communists. Notice that they are never willing to gave back rights that have taken away from us such as gun law.
People need to learn how to decode the language of communists.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 9:08 am
When you see the face of this loser, you want to move to Thailand or Brazil and forget that you were ever born in Canada. What about changing the firearms laws fucking loser to appease me. Of course not, you love mediocrity fucking loser you want me to leave Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViW3yf__SJs
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 9:30 am
I guess I will go pursue my studies of earth mathematics and science in Thailand. I guess Canada wants me to leave. Fine by me, I hate Canada anyway.
When you see the face of this loser, you want to move to Thailand or Brazil and forget that you were ever born in Canada. What about changing the firearms laws fucking loser to appease me. Of course not, you love mediocrity fucking loser you want me to leave Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViW3yf__SJs
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 9:41 am
Imagine that I could live in Thailand and never have to wear winter boots. I could grab young women pussy as much as I what.
I guess I will go pursue my studies of earth mathematics and science in Thailand. I guess Canada wants me to leave. Fine by me, I hate Canada anyway.
When you see the face of these loser, you want to move to Thailand or Brazil and forget that you were ever born in Canada. What about changing the firearms laws fucking losers to appease me. Of course not, you love mediocrity fucking loser and you want me to leave Canada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4WGebcvAMQ
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 9:44 am
Facts are facts. Canada wants me to leave the nation for a better place. Ok cock sucker, I tried to help Canada but my proposition was rejected. Go fuck yourself.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 9:52 am
Look at 0:08. trees are also dying on Trump ressort land. After we remove all the undesirable from Thailand, there will be plenty of empty condos where to put the chosen ones,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gshuzEJXI4U
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:09 am
This planet is just big simulation. There is barely no really flesh humans living here. Normally if we had really flesh beings. Canada would have abolished the firearms laws. knowing this fact makes my live and decisional process much more easier for me.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:12 am
I will use earth simulation for my own benefits and modify it to fit my needs and desires.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:14 am
We will start by killing the whole population of earth. We move forward by killing the whole vegetation of earth. I will give further instructions as time moves on.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:22 am
Thailand is too far away. I want to be able to fuck young whore. We will have to create a redlight night life district a bit like Thailand. I want to live next to Brazil big universities. I will need access to a complete chemistry lab. The redlight night life district should be closed to where I live at about 30 min of waling distance.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:27 am
I want to fuck young whores between 13 to 20 year old. Not older then that. I would need a target practice range where I can test weapons and ammunitions all type. It should be closed to the chemistry lab of the university.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:29 am
Yes, we will kill all the population of earth. Total emptiness help me think and concentrate better. We keep only the fake young whores alive to pleasure me sexually.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:37 am
Fox news is now showing the dead trees in front of Trump property at 0:04
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sFKyGjYgaI
Slowly and progressively the control of the whole earth simulation will be transferred to me.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:43 am
Yes I am ok with living inside a university complex area. I am ok to have my personal home next or inside the university complex area. I could also use the machine shop from the University mechanical engineering department to fix my cars.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 10:46 am
I want to repeat that. We kill all the population of earth. Total emptiness help me think and concentrate better. We keep only the fake young whores alive to pleasure me sexually. I want everyone dead on earth, they are just robot.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 11:01 am
Earth is populated with just fucking loser. Earth belongs to me and I will kill everyone on it except the chosen ones. Canada does not want to please, go fuck yourself. I will kill all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PECivg9Hf3w
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 11:02 am
I told you that Canada reward mediocrity and punish intelligent people. Sew firearms canada laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PECivg9Hf3w
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:13 pm
Everyone is retarded on earth. I receive the cheap china camera. The USB C charging port is too small so the female USB C charging connector cannot by fully push on. I had to modify the USB C connector. No way this civilization will survive which such an heavily mentally retarded people.
CBC turn off the comment on the web because they were too negatives. Now you understand why we are killing everyone on planet earth.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:15 pm
Everyone is retarded on earth. I receive the cheap china camera. The USB C charging port is too small so the MALE USB C charging connector cannot by fully push on. I had to modify the USB C connector. No way this civilization will survive which such an heavily mentally retarded people.
CBC turn off the comment on the web because they were too negatives. Now you understand why we are killing everyone on planet earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PECivg9Hf3w
No way the earth population is made of real humans. Earth population are just some kind of stupid robots. Earth population has no real value to us. We will protect the chosen ones and kill everyone else.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:18 pm
The Chinese are not going to be planet earth savior. They are too stupid for that.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:30 pm
It is over for earth. Concentrate all your effort of the chosen ones. It is time to kill all the population of earth.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:32 pm
Whites people were the ones keeping earth population alive. As Whites people demographic decline accelerate, earth civilisation will collapse faster.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:36 pm
Changes to Canada’s mortgage rules for first-time homebuyers
The can almost they panic in their faces because Canada does not have a real economy. Canada economy is based on housing growth and housing inflation. Canada is a loser nation with a population of losers. I am still waiting for Canada to change firearms laws to appease me. I am waiting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyEahGmtaCA
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:37 pm
Changes to Canada’s mortgage rules for first-time homebuyers
You can almost them, panic in their faces because Canada does not have a real economy. Canada economy is based on housing growth and housing inflation. Canada is a loser nation with a population of losers. I am still waiting for Canada to change firearms laws to appease me. I am waiting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyEahGmtaCA
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:45 pm
There is no way earth civilisation will survive without the cooperation of men like me. The problems is that we have abandoned the West and are not coming back to save it.
ee on Mon, 16th Sep 2024 12:50 pm
There is no way earth civilisation will survive without the cooperation of men like me. The problems is that we have abandoned the West and are not coming back to save it. I have abandoned the West and I am working on alternatives ideas that does not include the population of earth. Earth will not get a second chance. Only people that love mathematics, that hates women, and love real freedom and wants to own automatic rifle will have the possible to become a chosen one.