It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:09 am
No Woman will ever dare to go alone in the wilderness. Women are to coward and stupid to survive on their own. Women are just parasitical leeches.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbgtRGdKL38
Notice how bar girl in Pattaya always walk in group of two. It is because women are stupid coward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGowJkv_dmk
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:18 am
You see here you have women that are alone. These are probably fake CGI women. Women hate being alone in general.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdXv1_OdgUY
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:20 am
0:19 you have 4 prostitues on the street corner competing against each others. Women don’t like be alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdXv1_OdgUY
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:29 am
All the problems we have on earth are caused by women and feminized beta boy like Blinken.
The real lesson to remember here is that sexual reproduction and women are failed concepts that should not be created again. The reason I am not allowed to carry an handgun on me in Canada is because of women and feminist beta boy.
A civilisation that care only about the weak and stupid and neglect the needs of intelligent men like me will not survive for long. We are already seeing it now in real time.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:31 am
As far as I am concern I recommend that we kill everyone on earth except the chosen ones.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:51 am
Even the poor and homeless gather together. I cannot carry an handgun on me because I am surrounded by mentally sick people that cannot live alone because they have no survival skill. I am being penalized because I have an high IQ. No civilization can survive for with such a social arrangement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veHjcEzGc_w
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 12:38 pm
Even on the beach, women are gathering in small group. Very few women alone on the beach.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdAmndQPeWg
This is why I call them fucking communists.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 2:18 pm
According to this feminized soy boy at 1:55 we are in the middle of a manufacturing renaissance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLs7TP_4r1A
You mean this below represents manufacturing renaissance. Not being able to buy parts to repair your car means that we are in the middle of a manufacturing resnaisance.
https://www.rockauto.com/fr/catalog/honda,2020,accord,1.5l+l4+turbocharged,3445237,engine,turbocharger,5764
For you this is manufacturing renaissance. Hiding the past (graph start at 2004) to hide inflation is manufacturing renaissance.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU441310441310P
This fucking cock sucker has no shame at all. Is he making fun of the us.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 3:22 pm
Prostitutes almost naked with dying trees. You guys don’t fuck around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIxXFgQUcsA
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 4:55 pm
They are also voluntary killing big successful companies. Kodak is one example. I think very soon they will kill Google.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsxiSM-6wQI
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 5:11 pm
They want people to own a cell phone. Cell phone is the perfect tracking device with google map. Most people were too poor to afford a cell phone. Google create a free operating system for cell phone called Android. This allow them to lower the cost of a cell phone and make it available to poor people. My cell phone cost me 300$ taxs included with Android operation system.
They are going to kill Google as Google served its purpose.
ddd on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 5:28 pm
I am really surprised that nobody came to talk me yet. Trying to buy me out with money.
You know. Here is 100 millions for your work and here is a permanent conceal carry handguns license. You don’t have to talk with us if you don’t want to but here is the phone number.to contact us. Enjoy your money and life. Really surprised that nobody came to talk to me.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 6:21 pm
the goal of Google was to create a software to track people purchases, or if you will a software to manage earth natural resources.
In order to do that you crate something like google map. Send some cars through the whole world with camera on top to map all the big cities, small cities, rural towns. After that create a big database that contain the locations of all stores around the world, big and small.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 6:23 pm
After that you need to put cell phones into the hands of all the population of the earth. Most people are too poor to afford a cell phone. Google created a free operating system for cell phone called Android. This allows them to lower the cost of a cell phone and make it available to poor people.
eedd on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 6:29 pm
Now people are finding that google technologies are too intrusive and people are losing confidence in the ability of Google to protect their personal datas. This is when you kill the company as people are starting to hate Google.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 6:41 pm
Google pretends that they make revenues from selling adds on Google search and selling you adds on your cell phone. This complete BS. Google money is coming from the big mutual funds such as Blackrocks, Vanguard, State Street and some shadow hidden CIA budgets.
Google was created by Blackrocks, Vanguard and State Street. They were the ones propping up the value of Google to drag in small investors into buy Google shares.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 6:56 pm
After that you transform the cell phone into a personal identification carte. You accustom people at seing the cell phone as a personal identification card. How do you that. Each time you want to log into your banking site, the bank sends an a security code directly to your cell phone. If you dont have a cell phone, you will be forced to answer these annoying security questions. Slowly you see your cell phone as a personal identification card.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 7:06 pm
After that you accustom people at using the cell phone to pay directly for their purchase instead of using a plastic card. After that, you can install total totalitarianism by setting up a system of rationing of what you can buy using your cell phone.
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 7:10 pm
The weak link in this strategy in the reliably of the electrical grid. Some men like me might sabotage the electrical grid in retaliation to the installation of totalitarianism
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 8:40 pm
Clothing. If you make your our clothes you know what I am meaning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kzU6RcXOSM
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 8:48 pm
Is it really like that. If I could there this is what I will see with my own eyes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxfr1mULeTQ
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 8:52 pm
Trees look really bad. They are all dying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxfr1mULeTQ
ee on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 9:01 pm
They can barely afford real cars or there is a shortage of cars available. See these small golf carts from the parking enforcement forces at 4:25. I told you that there is a shortage of car mechanics. I don’t if it is the reason. A lot of trees look fake and have CGI kind of looks. I told
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxfr1mULeTQ
ww on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:44 pm
If everything start to look like CGI on the internet, I will have more trouble analyzing the situation, as I will see the world as a simulation. I might detach emotional from this shit.
ww on Sat, 14th Sep 2024 11:56 pm
3:27 to 3:40
It is pretty obvious that it is just CGI.
3:33 show us how fake it is. Notice the 333. I will lose interest and will detach emotionally if everything looks CGI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXIAQUPWZL4
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 12:27 am
I told you that neglecting my needs might not be the best strategy. Keeping me at home because I am not rich enough to buy a new car might come back to haunt to you. Without a decent car I can not able leave my neighborhood and go explore outside of my usual area. I might lose interest if everything I see is just fake internet videos. I fucking told you to no neglect my needs.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:04 am
I also told you that I need access to handguns and firearms for personal protection and personal temporary psychological support. When are you going to give me something that pleases me. I swear to GOD you do it on purpose to piss me off.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:09 am
Don’t ever dare to come back to me and blame me if this whole operation failed. I warned you. See my comments above.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:21 am
No the situation is not fixable between us. A divorce is needed. I am tolerating you because I am not able to chase you away. Communicating with images is on of the shitting form of commination. Too many interpretation can be given to one image. Is there anything you cock suckers can do correctly.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:34 am
I will kill everyone on planet earth and destroy everything I can touch because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 12:01 pm
It is fucking amazing how powerful we are. We can change the past. There is 3 year old video with dying vegetation. See at 0:08 the row of dying trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2MxoXw1Djo
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 12:08 pm
I will kill everyone on planet earth and destroy everything I can touch because of Canada firearms laws. Just fucking amazing. Again some more dying trees at 3:27 in the middle of the screen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd6jw2aKlSs
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 12:15 pm
6:52 dying trees in Thailand. I will kill everyone on planet earth and destroy everything I can touch because of Canada firearms laws. Just fucking amazing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2tfo2cKE8w
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 12:25 pm
The refusal to remove Canada firearms laws is what is keeping me emotionally involved in this operation. The more you refuse to change the laws, the more I will get angry and the more I will seek total destruction of everything living on earth.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 12:49 pm
I told you that I would kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws. We are doing it right now,
Severe flooding causes devastation in Central Europe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVK6yoMmHdM
If I have to kill the whole population of earth as a mean to make sure that there never will be again on earth laws on the possession firearms, I will do it.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 1:30 pm
The West has been complet destroyed and sabotaged by Whites men like me. We did it the Russian away again. The Russian is: they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.
What are the Jews going to do against us Whites men. We have sabotage the West from the inside. What are the Jewish medias will do against Whites men like me ?
Who will be rebuilding the West. NO the Whites mens. The Jews are going to rebuild the West one manufacturing plant after another. I want to see that.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 1:42 pm
I want to know if the Jews will fixe your cars.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV4dJTWW9_I&t=29s
I want to know if the Jews will fixe your semi-trailer trucks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSaAZEYodYY
I want to know if the Jews will fix heavy machinery equipment. I love the Jews so much that I want to kill everyone of them bare handed.
All of this because of Canada firearms laws.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 1:45 pm
I will give changes you can believe in. I will give you a earth full of cadavers.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 1:55 pm
I just receive from China my stand for my cellphone. I can now make videos and become a narcissist with an inflated ego just like the rest of the population.
I just made a video where I rambling like a big fat loser. I will put it on YouTube, so you can see how much I hate all of you.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 1:56 pm
I love using planet earth as my personal entertainment toy.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:11 pm
They erase my YouTube account. Fucking losers
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:16 pm
I made a mistake my account is still there. I guess I am a retarded. I will show you me rant where I am acting as mentally retarded person but I am not retarded unlike planet earth where they act all serious and proper but deep inside that are mentally retarded.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:20 pm
YouTube is full of bug. We were even successful at sabotaging from the inside big internet media companies such as google, facefuck, twatter.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:21 pm
YouTube interface is so bad. It seems like YouTube studio interface was designed by people that are mentally retarded. Everything is retarded on planet earth.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 2:40 pm
I finally become a narcist person with a low IQ by publishing my first video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Em-H9HDkVY
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 3:39 pm
I have another video coming where I am showing my chest knife harness and I threaten Trudeau, Legault and Dominic Leblanc. If the police does not come up to speak to me, there is something wrong.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 4:02 pm
If I don’t get ban from YouTube after publishing this next video, you will know that we are the ones controlling YouTube.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 4:04 pm
If this video does not get me banned. You will know who control this world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQJ0XCocK24
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 6:30 pm
They remove my video. I fell so bad. I was able to show to people that have seen to my video, that without Whites men like me your North American will not be rebuild after a financial. I am waiting for the communists to rebuild the West after it collapses.
ee on Sun, 15th Sep 2024 6:32 pm
I have made other weapons. I can show them you if you want. I don’t know how long the video will stay up.
Nobody will never tell me what kind of firearms I can own and cannot own.