It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Wed, 11th Sep 2024 11:58 pm
The media did not have the balls to say that Trump does not respect Kamala. They always have to embellish every story. Maybe Trump is a White man that does not give a shit about the future of the US, same as I don’t care about the future of Canada. They have to keep the illusion alive that people seeking power still believe in the America dream.
You see that the narrative that the US is the greatest nation on earth dying, they can not motive people to participate voluntary to the futur of the US. They know that the US has been sabotage from the inside.
Look at her fucking face, she wants to cry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjPt8njOJ0M
eedd on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:09 am
He really does not care. look at 0:33 to 1:00 his facial expression barely changes. She is trying to look optimistic toward the futur as he stand there and just don’t care. Media as always miss the whole point. They have to embellish everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjPt8njOJ0M
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:11 am
Play the video at 0.25 speed without sound. You will see what I mean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjPt8njOJ0M
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:20 am
Play the video at 0.25 speed without sound. You will see Kamala is panicking and afraid while he stand there and just don’t care. Pause at 0:50. look at her face she is panicking. You have only retarded people working in the media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjPt8njOJ0M
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:31 am
Play the video at 0.25 speed without sound. You will see Kamala is panicking and afraid while he stand there and just don’t care. Pause at 1:07, 1:08 and 1:09. Her facial expression are priceless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjPt8njOJ0M
Green Leather Jacket on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 7:03 am
Wow it’s wonderful. Keep update with new blogs.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 10:40 am
I am not here to help the population of planet earth, otherwise we would not have done 9/11. I am here to tell you that we hate all the population of planet earth and we are going to kill everyone living on earth.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 10:49 am
I am here to see you die and suffer. I am not here to help you. You are too mentally retarded to be keep alive.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:11 am
I like how you think you are special just because you are wearing a suit. You look fucking ridiculous and a suit. Every Politicians wear a suit because inside you are dead with no personality or original thoughts. So you copy earth other like mindless drone because you dead inside and outside. Fuck I want to see you suffer like the pathetic losers you all are.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:15 am
I will repeat that I will kill with joy and pleasure all the population of earth just because of Canada fire arms laws. Nobody will ever take away from me my firearms again because you will be all dead.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:46 am
I am sewing myself a polar fleece blanket for winter. The fabric is now really thin. You have to double it to make the same thickness as 15 year ago. You cannot find the heavy polar fleece textile anymore. You can see the depletion of naturals ressources and hyperinflation everywhere you look. You are just stupid pieces of shit wear a nice suit and pretending that you are intelligent, when in fact you are heavily mentally retarded.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:53 am
You just have no idea how dire the situation is. Earth population is too heavily mentally retarded to make a correct assessment of the current situation. But you wear nice suits.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU313313
Look, the hiding the fact that you cannot find thick heave polar fleece by erase the past and starting their graph at 2002. Above the inflation price at the manufacturing mills textile.
Below the inflation of garment
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU03
I told you that we hate the population of earth and will kill you all. Why do you think we build earth and send undesirable beings here. Why do you think we did 9/11. Not because we care about you , because we hate you
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:58 am
Why do you think I am looking at building a civilizational knowledge lifeboat. Because I know that we won and very soon all the population of earth will be dead.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:01 pm
I am not really in favor of building a civilizational knowledge lifeboat but normally if you were in charge of planet earth and wanted to save the knowledge you would be looking at this seriously.
Me I want to see all of you suffer and die. Once everyone is dead. nobody will be able to put any kind of restriction on the ownership of firearms.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:05 pm
I have plans for everything. If I am the only survivor I will move to Brazil. If I am forced to build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat , I have an idea how I would do it. I am also preparing myself psychologically at leaving planet earth in a hybrid body. If I cannot leave Canada after everyone is dead, I know what I will do. I have plan for every situation I can think of.
I am just waiting for the population of earth do die.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:23 pm
I have plans for everything. If I am the only survivor I will move to Brazil. If I am forced to build a civilizational knowledge lifeboat , I have an idea how I would do it. I am also preparing myself psychologically at leaving planet earth in a hybrid body. If I cannot leave Canada after everyone is dead, I know what I will do. I have plan for every situation I can think of.
I have not made any plans regarding me saving planet earth and its population. It is not going to happen if I am in charge. In my head it is clear that I want everyone on earth dead and I will not back down on this.
I was the last time that I was refused personal protection by the government of Canada, It will never happen again because I will kill everyone living on earth.
I am just waiting for the population of earth do die.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:40 pm
You took away from me my access to a personal protection, earth has to be punished for that. The punishment will be death.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 12:46 pm
You have just no idea because you are retarded mentally. You just have no idea how much Whites men like me have sabotaged from the inside the West. It is not the immigrants you should be afraid of. You should be afraid of men like me that have been destroying the West from the inside for the last 20 years.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 1:06 pm
I order a mini camera for AliExpress. I hope it takes good videos and photos. I don’t like using my phone, I always drop it on the ground. Now it is too late, but next summer I might take picture and video of dying trees. You just have no idea because you are just mentally retarded idiots wearing a nice suit.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 1:08 pm
Look at your fucking dying trees at 0:01.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdXv1_OdgUY
I told you that I would kill everyone on planet earth because of Canada firearms laws. Nobody can any kind of restriction of firearms if I kill the whole population of earth.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 1:28 pm
I could show you videos of dead trees all day long form all over the world if I wanted to. I think this proves my point that we will kill everyone living on earth just because of Canada firearms laws.0:00 to 0:05 look at the dead tress on the right. I could do that all day long but it is becoming pointless as all the population of earth will be dead soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fe2fYvllo8
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 1:37 pm
This two days ago. Look at your fucking dying planet and green vegetation dying. I have shit load of these videos from all over the world.
I fucking told you that I would kill everyone living on earth just because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4PsdvK6kkI
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 1:59 pm
The first reflexes of a woman, when she needs something done, is to open her legs for money, or beg people in position of power so they solve her problems for hers. I fucking hate women. They are dead empty shell. Same for the feminized beta soy boy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fe2fYvllo8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_MikD80ly0
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 2:17 pm
There were a lot of knowledge about women in YouTube MGTOW videos. It is all gone. The men that did not marry or have kids seem to be the ones that understand the real nature of women the best.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 2:21 pm
The problem that women have is that they have to obtain the voluntary participation of men into maintaining and building a civilization for them. They always go too far in their desire to control everyone around them, and eventually alienate men against them. See the Canadians firearms laws.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 2:24 pm
The real thing to remember about earth is the women and sexual reproduction are failed concepts. The rest is just noise and distraction.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 2:27 pm
There were a lot of knowledge about women in YouTube MGTOW videos. It is all gone. The men that did not marry or have kids seem to be the ones that understand the real nature of women the best. The real talented men of earth are the single men that never married and have no kids. These are the only men that might have a chance to become a chosen one.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 2:34 pm
If you are a chosen one, they only think you have to remember is that women and sexual reproduction are failed concepts. The rest is just noise and distraction. I
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 2:39 pm
You will understand better why women and sexual reproduction are failed concept if you are witnessing it yourself. Few people know how women will destroy everything they touch. Observer women, it will teach you about uncontrol ego, stupidity, amorality, lack of logical skill and so on.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 4:36 pm
Considering how dire the situation is, as I mentioned above, I thought they would slack on the rules in an attempt to lure back right wing men to voluntary participate into the maintenance of this civilization and maybe stop the internal sabotage. One example could be abolishing firearms laws. They don’t seem to interested at saving themself or this civilization. They must know how dire the situation is because they are constantly lying in their economical statistics. they really don’t seem to care about the future.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 4:45 pm
They must know how dire the situation is. Why are they not doing anything to adresse the situation in anyway.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 5:02 pm
You prefer to watch the supply chain collapse and do nothing. Why not remove all the Canadian firearms laws. People will kill each other using firearms and it will reduce the population. This is not what you wanted all long, a population reduction to save natural ressources. This shit is a complete mystery to me.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 5:07 pm
Let’s people kill each other with firearms, you will get the population reduction you want so much. That is what you want a population reduction. Why are such a fucking coward.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 5:11 pm
You want a population reduction, I will kill people on your behalf. Remove all the firearms laws and disable the police force and justice system. I will do all the killing you want for you for free. Don’t you think it is a good deal.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 5:30 pm
“Unwelcome News” For Consumers: Ag Juggernaut Brazil’s Beef Supplies To Slide Amid Cattle Crunch In US
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/unwelcoming-news-consumers-ag-juggernaut-brazils-beef-supplies-slide-amid-cattle-crunch
It is a backward entropic degradation clock. Everything is dying on this planet because of this clock. Meaning animals and humans are becoming infertile. They will never tell you the truth about anything. This is why they want you to eat bugs, because animals are getting infertile.
I told you that earth was an execution chamber for undesirable souls that we wish to kill.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 5:35 pm
The fucking meat all type, chicken, fish, beef all taste bad and smell bad. Everything taste like shit. A backward entropic degradation clock would explain that. A backward entropic degradation clock could be called the clock of death.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 5:44 pm
i told you that at the end of all this, I will walk over the cadavers of earth population
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 5:49 pm
Look at your dying trees. Right in your fucking face. I told you that I would all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Utdg8FEryV0
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 6:14 pm
I am giving proof after proof that I am killing the vegetation of planet earth and you don’t the courage to appease me by removing all the firearms laws. You prefer to sit there and die. You even won’t try to save your life and appease me, Maybe i will show mercy. You prefer to die.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 7:51 pm
I might be the best thing that ever happen to Canada. I could turn Canada into a power decisions center that has influence reaching far beyond Canada borders. I could have the potential to change Canada and the world completely and yet you don’t the courage to appease me by removing all the firearms laws. You want Canada to be a mediocre nation with mediocre goals. Your goal is mediocrity for all.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 7:59 pm
This is communism, a system that worship mediocrity. Communists are mediocre low IQ retarded people. You don’t argue with these people you kill them with extreme violence including women and children.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 8:34 pm
I still want to make sure I understand. I might be among the top 10 most intelligent men ever born on earth, and the politicians in Ottawa are still refusing to abolish all the firearms laws to appease me. This is the definition of mediocrity.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 8:58 pm
It is pretty obvious at this point that they don’t want very intelligent people in visible power structure of earth. They manage earth through governmental agencies such as EPA, FDA, department of education. This way they can hide from their failure and corruption. This is why you need a King with absolue power to deal directly with the shadow government hiding in the EPA, FDA, ATF.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 10:04 pm
Fucking sexual pervert. See at 6:10. I am pretty sur that the guy in the back is having a erection and the girl can feel it. See 6:36
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vueOLMLmaso
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 10:58 pm
Endgame: Interest On US Debt Surpasses $1 Trillion For First Time Ever, Exploding August Budget Deficit To Record High
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/endgame-interest-us-debt-surpasses-1-trillion-first-time-ever-exploding-august-budget
You are not going to be able to rebuild North America once the financial system implode. White men me will not participate into rebuilding North America. Most likely North America will not be rebuild and the natural ressource will be transferred to South East Asia. Are you still in love for your fucking Jews.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:03 pm
You need willing Whites men that want to rebuild it. You don’t have that. We were successful at sabotaging the West from the inside, no reason for us to rebuild it. The Whites men that can will abandon the West and move into other nations.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:19 pm
The real lesson of planet earth is that women and sexual reproduction are failed concept.
Women = evil (down)
men = good (up)
Earth was also a learning lesson for the chosen ones.
ee on Thu, 12th Sep 2024 11:26 pm
Sexual reproduction as a mean to create an intelligent civilization is a failure, therefore women are a failure also.
ee on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 12:52 am
0:31 and other places in the video below. He looks straight in front of him, He does not look at her direction at all. She hates that. She is looking at him but he is still not looking at her, he is looking in front of him. He hates her but you will never hear that in lame street media where everything must be embellished.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzbOWroKp_o
As always you never get any real analyses from the lame street media. Some people should have said: I think he hates her. The lame street media only exit to embellish bad event into tolerable event.
de on Fri, 13th Sep 2024 1:06 am
This is the full debate. He never looked in her direction. She is panicking as Trump refused to play the normal theatric game debate. Trump looks like someone who does no believe in democracy. You see the Whites men anger against the communists in Trump behavior
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgsC_aBquUE